For the second consecutive night (click here for yesterday's Snapshot), Democrats have improved their position in the Senate Snapshot.
In the Snapshot that includes all polls, the most likely outcome remains Democrats at 51 seats. However, the chance of a GOP takeover in the Senate has dropped to 8.8% (from 10.4%). Also, the odds of Democrats winning 52 or more seats (38.5%) is now far more likely than the odds of Democrats winning 50 or fewer seats (30.3%). Yesterday, the likelihood of those two outcomes was roughly equal.
In the Snapshot that does not include Rasmussen polling, Democrats have gained one seat to reach 52. Winning 56 or more seats--which would be a remarkable result in the current political environment--has even reappeared as a possibility. Even if it is only a 1 in 200 chance, it is still possible.
While two days may not constitute a genuine trend, given how poorly the last year has gone, I will take it. Hopefully, there will be many more days of improving poll numbers on the way.
Senate Snapshot, September 8th
(With Rasmussen)
(Without Rasmussen)
Notes
--This is a snapshot, not a forecast. All of the odds presented here are based on if the election were held today. It is not a prediction of future trends.
--If a campaign isn't listed here, then it is not currently as close as any of the campaigns listed here (at least it isn't as close in the snapshot that includes Rasmussen polling, which is the "official" snapshot).
--A * indicates that the candidate has a primary challenger, but is the favorite to win the nomination.
--All polls used in the averages are taken from Pollster.com.
--A complete description of the methodology behind this snapshot, along with all the research and a FAQ, can be found here.