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Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos. 9/11-12. Likely voters. MoE 3.2% (5/2 results)

Rand Paul (R) 49 (41)
Jack Conway (D) 42 (40)

The race is still engaged, but these results show us just how tough Kentucky is. Obama has a 37-60 approval rating in the state, including a weak 60-37 among Democrats (many of whom are social conservatives more than happy to vote Republican). Indeed, while the sample is 49 percent Democratic and 39 percent Republican, it's also 53 percent McCain voters and 40 percent Obama voters. It's that kind of state.

Now Conway is holding Obama supporters, but Paul is holding McCain voters, and there's lost more of those. In fact, Conway's deficit comes at the hand of those who consider themselves most conservative, since the Democrat's lead among liberals is 84-10 and among moderates 60-29. It's that 14-78 deficit among conservatives that's killing him.

Interestingly, Kentucky may be one of the few places were Democrats don't suffer from an intensity gap. PPP's Tom Jensen notes that the poll shows a Kentucky electorate that went for McCain by 13 points, when the Republican actually won it by 16. So Rand Paul is motivating Democrats, and given them a three-point intensity gap. However...

The Democrats’ problem in Kentucky isn’t the enthusiasm gap- Rand Paul took care of that for us.  It’s because after showing some wariness earlier in the summer, when we had the race tied, the McCain voters have pretty much all gone home to Paul.  In late June he was getting 70% of their votes and now for all his missteps he’s getting 80% of their votes. In a state that went as strongly Republican last time as Kentucky Conway is going to have to be able to pick off more of their voters than that to have a path to victory.

Now Conway still has room to grow -- 28 percent of voters still haven't made up their mind about him, compared to just 14 percent for Rand Paul. And the meth problem in Eastern Kentucky is still a viable point of attack -- with respondents saying, by  67-15 margin, that it's a "pressing issue" (Rand Paul said it wasn't one). That includes independents by a 58-24 margin, and even Republicans by 65-16. It's clear Conway will use that issue to better brand himself in the state, and he needs to because when we asked which candidate "understands the state of Kentucky" better, Paul the ignoramus fared very well -- 40 percent said "yes", 41 percent said "no" for Rand Paul, while Conway only checked in with 39-37.

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Tue Sep 14, 2010 at 10:32 AM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Kentucky SUCKS! (3+ / 0-)
    Yep I said it! Those dems in the south aren't really dems. Just dixiecrat hold-overs!
    •  seriously - WTF is wrong with those jaspers? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
    •  Comprehensive Immigration Reform (0+ / 0-)

      will end the Southern Strategy. The final nail in the coffin of the Republican Party. That's how you fix the our problem with democrats in the south.

      What other option is there but to legalize the 12 million immigrants? Instant tax revenue, invest in those communities, job creation, increase their home values, rising tide lifts all boats, etc... So many of them have lived in the US for decades, American in everything but paperwork.

      Granted this has nothing to do with Kentucky, today I just woke up thinking, "hey, why hasn't there been an immigration bill yet?" And then I remembered that Republicans have turned the "greatest deliberative body in the world" into a laughable circus.

    •  Don't count the Ky Dems out! (0+ / 0-)

      More Dems showed up in the primary than Rep. so don't count them out yet. The last I heard from Ky, the Seniors weren't buying Rand Paul's B.S. With Ky it truly isn't over until the fat lady yodels, so Jack Conway is far from losing this race.


    •  Yea (0+ / 0-)

      That sort of attitude is sure going to win lots of friends in the south.

      Currently Top Ten in Slate's Lean/Lock game!

      by greatdarkspot on Tue Sep 14, 2010 at 02:32:15 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  is it time to change the letter R to B (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    as in BatShitCrazy?

    Republicans===the party of the 1% rich people in America. Or in other words..The Party of NO!

    by jalapeno on Tue Sep 14, 2010 at 10:34:54 AM PDT

  •  Does it matter that Rand Paul is fucking nuts? (8+ / 0-)

    Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.

    by darthstar on Tue Sep 14, 2010 at 10:35:42 AM PDT

  •  So it comes down to which is more of a problem (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    in Kentucky ,Unemployment or Crystal Meth addiction yikes.

    We Destroyed this Village in order to save it from the Viet Cong er um Taliban

    by JML9999 on Tue Sep 14, 2010 at 10:36:23 AM PDT

  •  Let's not freak out again because of these (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:


  •  The incoherence of the Tea Baggers on display (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    RichM, Rosita, annieli, NamelessGenXer

    To me, what likely cuts through the various contradictions of a poor rural state voting for a libertarian ideologue who has avowed to serve corporate interests over and above ordinary citizens has got to be the "otherness" of Obama and the inability of poor, white Appalachians to come to terms with this otherness. That and GOP hate media, i.e., Fox, Limbaugh, the 700 Club, etc. How else to explain this?

    Randian for me means "Prince Randian" from the 1930s horror classic Freaks and is not a reference to libertarianism.

    by Randian on Tue Sep 14, 2010 at 10:36:52 AM PDT

  •  Conway (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Can win this in the debates but Paul is being programmed to not be himself

    •  Conway simply needs to point out Paul's (0+ / 0-)

      positions on the issues, and when Paul tries to defend (or change) those in the debates, he'll give himself away.

      Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.

      by darthstar on Tue Sep 14, 2010 at 10:40:50 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Kentucky likes Paul's position.. (0+ / 0-)

        On the issues. They are insane.

        •  Insane is one thing but ever changing is (0+ / 0-)

          another.  I thought they liked authentic people, especially those who don't dismiss and disrespect them.  Randy is shapeshifting, grifting opportunist.  

          No, it's never just been in the South.

          by conlakappa on Tue Sep 14, 2010 at 10:51:28 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  No. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            They like Republicans.  That's really all that matters.  Paul is on "their team".  

            It's like following a sports team, more than being engaged in politics, for the average Joe.  That's where WE fail to get it.

            The administration has done virtually nothing designed to reward its partisans. - Kos 8/31/10

            by Rick Aucoin on Tue Sep 14, 2010 at 11:02:22 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  That's not what my sister-inlaw from Kentucky (0+ / 0-)

              tells me but I guess you know best.

              No, it's never just been in the South.

              by conlakappa on Tue Sep 14, 2010 at 11:03:48 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  Didn't Ky. and Tenn. like President Kennedy? (0+ / 0-)

              So what happened?  We need to tell these people that Republicans will do NOTHING for them and that Rand Paul wants to destroy Social Security and Medicare.  Is that what they want, Republicans who work for the very rich?

              •  Kentucky and Tennessee (0+ / 0-)

                both voted for Nixon.

              •  Assuming they will believe you. (0+ / 0-)

                You are a Democrat and not on their team.  You'll lie and/or are deceived yourself about the Democrats actual agenda.

                They'll believe anything someone on their team says, disbelieve anything someone on the Opponent Team says.

                All too many voters can't bother with issues and even personalities.  They don't know their Senator's names, much less their House Rep.  When they think about politics at all they think of it in the most simple terms available: football teams or such.

                The only way to get more Democrats elected is to get more of the Joe Blow On The Street people on your team.  How do you do that?  That would be a long term project involving legislation that actually benefits them (say... that radical Democratic Party Platform) coupled with consistent and powerful messaging to combat the distortions put out by the Republican News channel.

                Can that be done?  Yes, it COULD be done.  But it would require the Democratic Party to accept the reality that it is at war with the Republicans.   And that doesn't seem real likely.

                The administration has done virtually nothing designed to reward its partisans. - Kos 8/31/10

                by Rick Aucoin on Tue Sep 14, 2010 at 12:12:17 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

      •  i though that paul (0+ / 0-)

        was ducking all debates.

  •  What I think could help Conway... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, Superribbie, Eddie L

    Is the Dems locking down the Senate by pulling ahead in other States.  I think the a lot of folks are unsure of Paul, but don't want to pass up the opportunity to give the GOP the Senate back.  As long as the Senate is seen as up for grabs, they'll give Paul their vote, as more a vote for the national party if nothing else.  

    Dems need to lock up what should be sure states - Washington, California, Wisconsin - take the possibility of flipping the Senate off the table and I think it would help Conway possibly pull off the upset.  

    Sen. Reid on GOP threat of filibuster on tax cuts - "by Republican logic, until rich CEOs get what they want, middle-class families can't get what they need."

    by Jonze on Tue Sep 14, 2010 at 10:37:22 AM PDT

  •  Feingold (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Meanwhile, Russ Feingold, who is a true liberal lion is in a very tight race. He's holding a money bomb today as detailed by Glenn Greenwald.

    I'd love to pick up this seat in Kentucky, but it will be cold comfort if we lose Feingold at the same time.

    "The smartest man in the room is not always right." -Richard Holbrooke

    by Demi Moaned on Tue Sep 14, 2010 at 10:37:37 AM PDT

    •  won't lose Feingold. (0+ / 0-)

      he is too smart of a campaigner.  

      Republicans===the party of the 1% rich people in America. Or in other words..The Party of NO!

      by jalapeno on Tue Sep 14, 2010 at 10:39:06 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Better Democrats (0+ / 0-)

        I hope not. But he and Boxer are in very tight races. If we lose them, the Democratic caucus in the Senate shifts significantly to the right. We shouldn't take them for granted.

        Gaining Conway probably moves us to the right, also.

        "The smartest man in the room is not always right." -Richard Holbrooke

        by Demi Moaned on Tue Sep 14, 2010 at 10:49:03 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Rand Paul 21/57 with moderates (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    RichM, askew, Subterranean, statsone

    Conway 51/23 with them. A whole lotta conservatives down in Kentucky.

    Here we are now Entertain us I feel stupid and contagious

    by Scarce on Tue Sep 14, 2010 at 10:37:38 AM PDT

  •  sad to be a Kentuckian :( (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    riverlover, dimaniac

    Paul will win this unfortunately.  The only way Conway wins is to blow out Rand in Louisville and Lexington.  I can't speak for Lexington but here in Louisville I have seen 5 Rand Paul signs for every 1 of Conway's.  That's very unscientific but I just can't see Paul getting blown out in the big cities.  If we had an INFORMED voting public this would be better but people love Ron Paul in this state and even though Rand's 1000X more batshit crazy than Ron I don't think that matters in this state.

    I'm going to vote for Conway this November and I hope I'm wrong but I can't see Paul losing :(

  •  Jeebus. (0+ / 0-)

    This one should be pretty damned easy.

  •  Conway's big problem (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Aquarius40, Rick Aucoin

    is that he is from Louisville, and the rest of the state, including Lexington, will not go for someone from the Big City. Words of wisdom from my sister, who still lives in River City. Heck, I am in upstate NY and distrust NYC. It's not new.

    Americans, while occasionally willing to be serfs, have always been obstinate about being peasantry. F. Scott Fitzgerald, the Great Gatsby

    by riverlover on Tue Sep 14, 2010 at 10:39:30 AM PDT

  •  this is truly frightening (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    this guy (along with angle) can't be in the senate.  unbelievable!

  •  Oof (0+ / 0-)

    If this lightweight weirdo is ahead after all that has come out about him, I don't know what to take away from that situation other than that Kentucky is a hopeless case.

  •  Conway only 68/24 with Democrats (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, conlakappa

    Conway brings them home to a more normal 90/10 and wins independents and he'll win in Kentucky.

    Here we are now Entertain us I feel stupid and contagious

    by Scarce on Tue Sep 14, 2010 at 10:42:13 AM PDT

  •  We cheered when Paul won (0+ / 0-)

    and laughed at the nutbag/teabaggers.  But some of them will get elected.

    Can yo imagine important senate committees chaired by Paul or Angle?

    "Don't bring that horse in here!" -- Cassandra

    by tc59 on Tue Sep 14, 2010 at 10:42:38 AM PDT

    •  A couple of nutbags aren't a threat (0+ / 0-)

      if the majority are soundly defeated and take the GOP down with them. Let me know if you need the smelling salts.

      Every politician in America is sounding like that mayor in Jaws. -global citizen

      by James Kresnik on Tue Sep 14, 2010 at 11:08:39 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yeah I can. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      And if its an economic committee I cannot wait.  Its time we shake up the normal narrative in Washington and I'll laugh my ass off watching the entrenched of both parties steam up in the collar when they get borrow-spend or tax-spend policies thrown back in their face.

      Face it a short term loss might be a long term win if we can destroy the calcification of ideas in Washington.  Do we really care who wields the sledgehammer?

      •  Yes, we do. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        For starters, it won't be an economic committee -- it will be health & human services or the epa and the damage they will do will last forever.

        Next, the idea that an idiot, of any party or persuasion, would be in control of the gov't is a bad thing (see U.S. President,  Jan. 2001- Jan. 2009).

        Add to that the fact that most of them are outright sociopaths, your sledgehammer can ruin the lives and future of the majority of Americans.

        "Don't bring that horse in here!" -- Cassandra

        by tc59 on Tue Sep 14, 2010 at 11:50:51 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  So all that tells me is that..... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mrblifil, jriches, Rob Dapore

    there are a lot of old white people in Kentucky!  All Conway needs to do is tell them Paul wants to privatize social security and medicare!  Run those commercials non-stop in between Golden Girls and MacGyver re-runs.

  •  Good thing the national Dems don't have an agenda (0+ / 0-)

    I'm sure that merely being anti-Republican will work out just fine.  We wouldn't want to fight this election on popular Democratic policies instead of local Republican personalities, amirite?

    President Obama: neither Kenyan nor Keynesian.

    by Tommy Allen on Tue Sep 14, 2010 at 10:46:13 AM PDT

    •  What the heck difference will a "national' agenda (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Aquarius40, Egalitare, AmericanIdeal

      mean to local folks?  Elections are fought and won locally.

      No, it's never just been in the South.

      by conlakappa on Tue Sep 14, 2010 at 10:57:20 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  If you think... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      ...that the way to get Dems elected in Kentucky is by pushing national progressive policies and positions, you have absolutely NO clue about Kentucky politics, and most likely about politics in general.

      This "progressives didn't do enough and push Left far enough" meme is growing SO stale, and is being proven SO wrong by more and more polls, that it's absolutely comical. What is apparent is that the messaging on what HAS been accomplished and how much of an impact it is making is NOT out there and/or well understood by moderates, and for that we can look in our own mirrors, as well as the MSM who picks up its cues from the netroots and vocal activists on both sides of the aisle more and more these days.

      Your sarcasm is noted. So is your inaccuracy.

  •  Barring Paul putting his foot in his mouth (0+ / 0-)
    again, I think this race is out of reach.

    "I've never believed that government's role is to create jobs . . . So this week, I've proposed a six year infrastructure plan."

    by Paleo on Tue Sep 14, 2010 at 10:47:03 AM PDT

  •  Paul will use the Pataki strategy (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Kresnik, Egalitare, Noamjunior

    Refuse to debate and hope bigotry and idiocy carry the day. He's probably right. That said, if a repellent troglodyte must win in Kentucky, I'd prefer it be Paul, with his propensity to say and do stupid things. It'll be much harder for him to hide in office, since he will be the official Tea Party figurehead if he gains high office.

    Chipping away at white entitlement is taking longer than I thought it would...

  •  KY- proving Ron White Right (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    first bunning , now Paul- I Guess you really CANT fix stupid.

  •  Well, this race was always going to be a longshot (0+ / 0-)

    It looks like Conway will need the debates to close this race or for Paul to make another major gaffe. Unfortunately, with Paul avoiding the media, it doesn't seem likely.

  •  Paul could still screw up (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    and Bubba and Biden goin' in there might help..but even Kentuckians might warm to the President a bit if he continues to blast the rich....

    "Fascism is attracting the dregs of humanity- people with a slovenly biography - sadists, mental freaks, traitors." - ILYA EHRENBURG

    by durrati on Tue Sep 14, 2010 at 10:55:08 AM PDT

  •  Rand Paul never said that (0+ / 0-)

    And the meth problem in Eastern Kentucky is still a viable point of attack -- with respondents saying, by  67-15 margin, that it's a "pressing issue" (Rand Paul said it wasn't one)

    Rand Paul never said that

  •  I really wish Senators were more localized (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Aquarius40, Rosita, vet, Eddie L, Noamjunior

    This is going to sound really mean, but if Kentucky elects this Rand Paul character, I'd really like to see them be the ones that get the government they deserve and get absolutely and utterly shafted top to bottom by his attitudes and policies, before the rest of us do.  But instead, he'll have the power of a US Senator and spread the shit around to all of us who didn't want him.  The guy going on about states rights isn't going to give a crap about the rights of California or New York to participate in a functioning federal government.  No, it's going to be the policies of those states that will be attacked first and hardest.

    I know this comes off as callous to Kentuckians, but if the state elects Rand, the least that should come out of it should be a hard lesson.

    You know, the United States just doesn't feel all that united to me anymore.

    You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.

    by sproingie on Tue Sep 14, 2010 at 10:57:21 AM PDT

    •  Rand Paul is no Lieberman. (0+ / 0-)

      A freshman senator isn't powerful enough to upset the entire Congress. If he is even somewhat consistent with his rhetoric and ideology will be very quickly hemmed-in by other factions.

      Every politician in America is sounding like that mayor in Jaws. -global citizen

      by James Kresnik on Tue Sep 14, 2010 at 11:13:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Hello, Senator Paul. (0+ / 0-)

    And Senator Toomey and Senator Angle and...

    What folk (especially on political blogs) don't get is that it's not issues or even personalities in these races.  Most people can't bother to learn their Senator's name, much less his stand on issues.

    It's all about how many Republican voters are there and how many Democratic voters there are.  We'll not convince people by arguing issues OR personalities.  Either Joe Blow figures himself a Republican and is going to vote R if he bothers to vote at all, or he figures he's a Democrat and he'll vote D if he bothers at all.

    The only way to change things is to get more people out there who think of themselves as Democrats.  How do you do that?

    By enacting the good-for-the-people policies that we've been advocating for, the obscure sorts of things found in... oh, say, the Democratic Party Platform.

    All the rest of this?  Smoke and mirrors.

    The administration has done virtually nothing designed to reward its partisans. - Kos 8/31/10

    by Rick Aucoin on Tue Sep 14, 2010 at 11:00:44 AM PDT

    •  Angle is dead meat. (0+ / 0-)

      And those evil blogs are fully on-board the GOTV. You really need to get a new script.

      Every politician in America is sounding like that mayor in Jaws. -global citizen

      by James Kresnik on Tue Sep 14, 2010 at 11:15:13 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I do? (0+ / 0-)

        I'm saying we need to get more people in this country to identify themselves at Democrats.  More casual voters who don't bother to keep up with politics (in other words, the vast majority of the country) who just think of themselves as Democrats.

        When they bother to vote, they vote their team.  All of those "Independents" aren't ideologically independent, they're more accurately referred to as "casual" or "apathetic" even.  They don't know their Senator's name even, they aren't voting for or against a Rand Paul because he's a loon who made an ass of himself on Rachel Maddow, they're voting for him simply because he's got an R next to his name and that is "their team".

        The administration has done virtually nothing designed to reward its partisans. - Kos 8/31/10

        by Rick Aucoin on Tue Sep 14, 2010 at 12:15:28 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Lives in the Ky (7+ / 0-)

    I live in the Ky and I can tell you that this place is absolutely full of stark raving bigots and racist people.  I am not flamethrowing, I am speaking the truth.  I hear good "christians" talking in Walmart and in churches for that matter about that black guy (or worse) in the WH.  About how he is a Muslim.  About burning Korans and hoping to do it themselves.

    Preachers here proclaim from the pulpit who to vote for and it is always a Fox news Republican.  This should be investigated.  Why isn't it?  I live in Eastern Ky and I often see dilapidated vehicles with taped windows and kids who look like they haven't had a bath since they were born, with a McCain-Palin sticker holding the window up.  How does that happen?  It happens when churches tell their poor and uneducated members they will go to hell if they vote for a demoncrat.  I have seen this personally.  What are we gonna do?

  •  Conway Can Do One Important Thing (4+ / 0-)

    Besides debates and such. Get Bill Clinton down here. Trust me. I listen to the kooks down here who can't stand Hillary or President Obama, who love Big Dog. Simple fact. Big Bill campaigning for Conway will do more for him than anything.

  •  It is a serious situation. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Pam from Calif, Ky DEM, FreeStateDem

    This is the Community Quilts Act Blue link for the Conway campaign.  

    Goal Thermometer

    I hope Mr. Conway wins.

  •  Conway is running in the wrong year (0+ / 0-)

    In 2008, we had a chance of knocking off Mitch McConnell. The Democrats are too unpopular in Kentucky right now. They already were skeptical, and with their already bad economy getting worse, you can't blame them.

    Don't automatically assume racist, stupid hicks. According to polls, Conway is winning the poor vote. It's the middle-class and wealthy that is for Paul.

    People panic too much on this site.

    by thematt523 on Tue Sep 14, 2010 at 11:05:34 AM PDT

    •  so there are more middle-class and wealthy (0+ / 0-)

      than poor ?

      I find that very hard to believe.

      Betcha the poor are voting for Paul.

      Cause if the government would just get off their backs, they could be rich, just like Paul is telling them...

      big badda boom : GRB 080913

      by squarewheel on Tue Sep 14, 2010 at 12:59:39 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Don't be an idiot (0+ / 0-)

        Polls shows that Conway does better with voters the less money they make. Don't discard my words just because you want to inflict your stereotypes on people.

        Paul is winning because there ARE more middle-class and poor.

        People panic too much on this site.

        by thematt523 on Tue Sep 14, 2010 at 02:45:27 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Let's say that unfortunatly Paul wins. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Kresnik, Prachar, FreeStateDem

    Will Paul vote in lockstep with what McConnell wants, like the 41 GOoPers in the Senate do today, or will he occasionally go against McConnell and cross over to vote with Dems on some issues, kind of like his father?  While it would be a disaster for Paulites to totally take over the reins of government, they might provide an occasional anti-war vote, for example.

    I suppose I'm asking: could he be their Evan Bayh?  Their Max Baucus?  Their Ben Nelson?  Their Bill Nelson?  (Hey, how come we have so many of those guys and they have none?)

    Barack Obama in the Oval Office: There's a black man who knows his place.

    by Greasy Grant on Tue Sep 14, 2010 at 11:07:28 AM PDT

  •  Again I say: nice job, Abe! (0+ / 0-)
    Had Lincoln let these goober states form their own backward country when he had the chance, imagine how great ours would be!  But nooooo.  'Preserve the Union.'


    And I'm only half kidding.

    Andrew Mellon & GOP: 'In a Depression, assets return to their rightful owners'

    by Tuffie on Tue Sep 14, 2010 at 11:09:44 AM PDT

  •  Seems like we never get good news anymore. (0+ / 0-)
    Worldwide the left seems to be in total collapse.

    The Raptor of Spain: An Alternate Histoyr Blog
    From Muslim Prince to Christian King (Updated Sept. 8!)

    by MNPundit on Tue Sep 14, 2010 at 11:11:56 AM PDT

  •  Rand Paul keeps losing vote in western Ky (0+ / 0-)

    he accused Fancy Farm that he might get beer  thrown on him, well that didn't go over it's a dry county. last Saturday he skipped the St Johns picnic, showed up for about 15 min 3 hrs before the event. now here how Jack Conway worked the crowd

    "I want to be in Kentucky when the end of the world comes, because it's always 20 years behind" -Mark Twain

    by vet on Tue Sep 14, 2010 at 11:17:44 AM PDT

  •  so how much $$$$ is gonna be poured into this?? (0+ / 0-)

    and given the lessons of Halter/Lincoln -- what are the odds of success??

    "....while there is a soul in prison, I am not free." Eugene V. Debs

    by soothsayer99 on Tue Sep 14, 2010 at 11:40:57 AM PDT

  •  God, I'm crying soon. I expected the result, so (0+ / 0-)

    that's not my problem. But where's the raw data?

    Support Dennis McDonald and Montana Democrats in the 2010 election!

    by twohundertseventy on Tue Sep 14, 2010 at 11:44:55 AM PDT

  •  A big problem (0+ / 0-)

    faced by a lot of Democrats this year, is that "Not the tea-party candidate" is not enough.

    You have to make the choice clear, and that includes both defining your opponent and yourself.  And not enough have done that well, alas.

    My life is an open book, and I want a rewrite!

    by trumpeter on Tue Sep 14, 2010 at 12:03:45 PM PDT

  •  Did anyone see Conways new attack ad? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    He's hitting Paul on being soft on crime because of his views on drug prohibition.

    Now wonder Conway is losing.

  •  Running From The Press With Rand Paul (0+ / 0-)

    "I want to be in Kentucky when the end of the world comes, because it's always 20 years behind" -Mark Twain

    by vet on Tue Sep 14, 2010 at 12:48:11 PM PDT

  •  Conway can still pull it out. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Litvak36, Ditch Mitch KY

    I was not born here in the Bluegrass but I think I have gained an understanding of the commonwealth since moving here.  First of all, there are some downright liberal, true-blueparts of this state.  Lexington, where I live is one of them.  20 miles outside of Lexington is not.  Jack Conway is a centrist, much to the right of me on a host of important issues but, having seen him speak, I can say two things.  First, he is a charismatic and compelling figure.  Second, forgetting the gamesmanship of voters rooting for their own team, Conway is simply more in touch with the values and opinions of the residents of this state.  Conway might not agree with every voter on every issue but he is a true Kentuckian and Rand Paul is not.  And as that fact gets out there, when people see these folks debate, that fact will get out there.  When Rand Paul says "accidents happen" with regard to coal disasters, says there is no meth problem in Eastern Kentucky, wants to cut drug enforcement and rehabilitation money from the Federal government to the state, believes that the government is overstepping when it prevents restaurants and country clubs from discriminate on the basis of race, when he thinks  that the Dukes of Hazard took place in Hazard County, KY, he is displaying himself as someone who is out of touch with the center of the values and opinions and positions of the people of this state.  As Jack Conway gets that message out there and voters begin to pay attention, he will make this an increasingly competitive race.

  •  Rand Paul calls Social Security a Ponzi Scheme (0+ / 0-)

    So how the hell can Rand Paul win in a poor state, with god knows how many people on Social Security, by talking about ending the program?

    EVERYTIME anyone says Rand Paul's name, they must also state that Paul calls Social Security a "ponzi scheme."

    We are working against Stupid in the state of Ky (and I live here).  It is a shame because Jack Conway is a fabulous candidate.  

  •  Shocking,,,just shocking I tell ya. (0+ / 0-)

    Boy Kos, are we about to see another "great progressive" go down in flames in the South?

    I'm shocked, I tell ya.

    While we were "all" salivating, and contributing at your urging, toward the prospect of sending those dern Tea Baggers a lesson they'll never forget, we never much heard about Connecticut, Delaware, New Hampshire, Ohio or Wisconsin. Not to mention Maine, Illinois, Colorado or Washington.

    Of course, before that, we were busy throwing money and support at a primary in Arkansas at your urging, so maybe we were just too tuckered out from all that lesson teaching and point proving to spread our attention that thin, right?

    It would be nice at some point for you and others who paraded around for most of the year on a mission for better Democrats, to acknowledge at some point how erroneous and misguided your political calculations were this year. To remind us all that when there is debate it is healthy and responsible to air out differences and take hard stances. But that eventually the DEBATE ENDS, and we have to be smart enough to know when that is, accept the outcomes, and remind unified and committed to the other half of the equation -- MORE DEMS.

    You know, we all invest tons of personal emotions into the political world these days. The stakes are high, the developments are rapid and endless. Our adversaries take things personally, and the mission to divide the nation, and Democrats, is supported by a 24 hour stream of misleading news, poor "reporting" and well funded attacks from highly trained communications experts. But more and better Dems is so simple, and so on point, that it would take nothing more than rigid discipline and stable motivation from you, and this site, to keep a potent, unified and strong willed army at the ready to beat down these attacks and counterproductive messages. But imagine my disappointment, and many many others on here when instead, this year became almost a mission of yours to punch away at Democrats, armchair quarterback at every turn, and pick away at anyone or anything that didn't meet the most stringent of purity tests or progressive messaging. All despite the fact that we very much WERE gaining critical ground on the health care front, on financial reform, on equal pay, on Iraq, on tax reform, on transparency in Dover, nuclear arms reductions talks, China relations, jobs bills, a massive stimulus, stem cell research, AIDS funding, and on and on and on.

    No, this is yet ANOTHER example of political amateur hour at its very strongest. A novel, yet completely wasteful focus of time, money and effort on Kentucky of all places. And now, when we are left with nothing to show for it, we look around at all of the ones we will sweat out in CT, NH, IL, OH, DE, NC and ME -- ALL states that voted for Obama in 2008 and are by every measure more progressive and open minded than Kentucky, one can only wonder why and how we let our eyes, dollars and attention wander SO FAR off the real prizes for so long.

    So please -- PLEASE -- save your pontificating, sanctimonious, self-serving, and blatantly overgeneralized blame of Democrat messaging and policy failures for struggles in those states, when every single poll and measure you can find says that really if base Dems were just willing to show some will, some unity and some patience, preferably under a solid leadership example from outspoken and noteworthy leaders like yourself, there would be MUCH less to worry about in November after all.

    Much like the HCR debate, when backs were against the wall, the "heroic critics" like yourself urged at the 11th hour that we fight like hell to ensure something gets passed. Thanks for the tip. Now, as October looms, you can slowly see the tide turning on here again -- with very REAL prospects of GOP assumption of control and of massive losses for Dems, we suddenly hear a softer tone, and much much less griping, from you and your followers who such a short time ago were insisting we throw em all out, and roll with only the most pure. As if that could accomplish anything in the face of the massive machine of no assembled and marching forward on the other side of the aisle.

    I personally don't much care about your actions or views on this except for the very real outcome that could be achieved if you stepped up and set the record straight. Going forward, we must be ready to fight, argue when it's time, and then stand united behind the outcomes and our numbers. For in those efforts, and those alone, are any of our children ever really going to see any real progress and/or improvement of their lives from our generation -- something I very much DO care greatly about. So should you.

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