Skip to main content

As the Tea Party continues the takeover of the Republican party, replacing mainstream candidates with their own, a scenario is shaping up that puts the Democratic party well within range of doing quite well in the Senate this election season. I find it depressing that so fine a line divides the Democratic party from an unmitigated disaster and a pretty rosy result for a mid-term election. Then again, that same thin line offers me a lot of hope.

Lets look at the races and be optimistic for a moment. Let's look at what we can reasonably achieve with a lot of hard work.

Races Democrats are almost certainly going to lose seats:
North Dakota

Democrats minus 3

Races Democrats with a slight amount of optimism may pick up seats
New Hampshire

Democrats minus 2

Toss Up States-

Democrats minus 2, minus 3 or  minus 4

If the Democrats can increase turnout from current polling levels to something easily achievable, not one of these races is at risk. Lets pray we win them all. It really isn't going to be that hard. These are the key states to pour money into. The only state I truly worry about is Colorado. We will win the rest.

Democrats worst case scenario optimistically speaking is minus 3 or  minus 4 seats. The best case scenario would be minus 2.  

I predict after the election, the Democrats will have lost three seats.

Wild cards after the election.
Ben Nelson
Olympia Snow
Joe Lieberman

Nelson and Lieberman are likely to stay in the Democratic party should the Democrats lose no more than 7 Senate seats. Olympia Snow will also play a role in any decision either of the other wild cards might make. Should Lieberman and/or Nelson defect to give the Republicans control, Olympia Snow may do the same and reverse the situation. In the days and months after the election, Olympia Snow may reverse Democratic losses to anywhere from minus 1 to minus 3 seats. If the Democrats come out of this election with 58 or even 56 seats in the Senate, the Republicans will have very miserable result to spin. I'm going to say something I never thought I would hear myself say. Thank you Sarah Palin and Glenn Beck!

OK, ruin my night. What have I got wrong? For the first time in a while, I am optimistic about this election.

Originally posted to brkramer on Tue Sep 14, 2010 at 06:07 PM PDT.


Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags


More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site