PPP. 9/11-12. Likely voters. MoE 3.2% (8/7-8 results)
Chris Coons (D) 50 (44)
Christine O'Donnell (R) 34 (37)
While O'Donnell may have ingratiated herself to Delaware's small group of registered Republicans over the last month she's turned off everyone else. An August Daily Kos/PPP poll in Delaware found her favorability rating at 23/33. It's now 29/50.
If Castle had won he would have received more Democratic support than any other Republican Senate candidate in the country. Now our polling suggests with O'Donnell's victory that Coons will win more Republicans than any other Democratic Senate candidate in the country. That's because of a general unwillingness to support O'Donnell from Castle's moderate base- folks from the centrist wing of the GOP are planning to support Coons 54-31. Overall he takes a full 25% of the GOP vote while also largely consolidating the Democratic base for a 72-13 lead on that front. He also has a narrow 42-36 advantage with independents, a group Democrats are losing with most everywhere else.
There's a reason the NRSC and the rest of the GOP establishment want to keep their distance from O'Donnell. The message was sent before O'Donnell even gave her victory speech -- you broke it, you bought it. It's up to Sarah Palin and the rest of the teabaggers to drag their nominee across the finish line.
Meanwhile, after originally saying it was cutting off O'Donnell, the NRSC has caved to pressure from their activists and decided to waste its money in the First State.
I reached out to Christine this morning, and as I have conveyed to all of our nominees, I offered her my personal congratulations and let her know that she has our support. This support includes a check for $42,000 – the maximum allowable donation that we have provided to all of our nominees – which the NRSC will send to her campaign today.
That's $42,000 that they can't spend in more hospitable territory. And note, in the statement, that there's no promise of additional support. The NRSC is already too busy spending their cash to try and rescue their Senate seat in Kentucky, of all places.