SEE UPDATE AT THE END OF DIARY
Since it been difficult for me as a Norwegian to obtain much interest in the Swedish parliament election, it would be probably be even more difficult for an American - but we´ll give it a try.
It´s pretty certain that the ruling centre-right alliance will continue after the election. There is some chance that the anti-immigration Sweden Democrats may cross the 4 percent threshold and be represented in the parliament for the first time ever. They may even be swing votes, since no other party will have anything to do with them, this would mean that the Alliance would have to make some kind of deal with the Greens.
A nice short, summary of what the election is about here
One of the reason The Alliance probably will go on governing, is that it seems many Swedes feel they have done a good job with the economy during the financial crisis. The high unemployment rate among the young is a problem though, and has been much discussed during the campaign. (Quite a lot of the young unable to find work in Sweden have come here to Norway, where these young "Swedish partiers" are very popular as employees, but not always as neighbors ;).
They have weakened several social programs, for instance the economic compensation for sick leave, but this weakening has been accepted by many as necessary. They are also strong proponents for more (public subsidized) private schools.
They have reduced taxes, but not promised high tax cuts in this campaign.
A brief review of the 4 parties in the Alliance:
The Moderate party. Used to be the reactionary right (fighting democratic reforms etc.), but gradually changed their politics and changed their name to the moderates. They are now pretty much the economic right, focusing on tax cuts, privatizing etc. They are currently the biggest party in the alliance and holds the prime minister.
The Liberal People´s party. Social liberals. They have a special traditions in standing up to totalitarian ideologies, also when they see tendencies to this in Sweden.
The Centre Party. Agrarian/rural, also with a bit of pro-environment. For instance they used to be firm opponents of the Swedish nuclear plants, but this is a fight they now have lost. Used to be a bigger a party and has earlier had the prime minister.
The Christian Democrats. Has traditionally mainly consisted of people that are confessing Christians and is kind of the only social conservative party in Sweden (against abortion, gay rights etc). They have toned down some of their most Evangelical profile and gained a broader voter base the last decades.
The Red-Greens
Concerning the Social Democrats which is the leading party among the Red-Green opposition, I will leave you to The Guardian:
(Please keep in mind: Red in Swedish politics like in the rest of Europe is the color of the social democrats/socialist)
The Swedish Social Democrats are no ordinary party. If Mona Sahlin, their leader, loses tomorrow's election, as seems almost certain, she will become the first leader in the party's history never to have been prime minister. The party has been in government for 65 of the last 78 years, and in that time no non-socialist government has ever been re-elected.
This is a theme that is much debated in Scandinavia now: Is Scandinavian Social Democracy dead as a forming ideology ? The question is asked not just because of the left´s , but also because the parties tend to be either somewhat sclerotic . While the Social Democrats used to advocate and implement big reform, both social and economical, they now seem to focus on maintaining what is already won, while at the same time adjusting these programs to a more global world and free market world view.
"Reform to maintain" as was the slogan of the Norwegian Labor party at one election.
The columnist also notes that the slogan of the anti-immigration Sweden Democrats once was the hallmark of the Social Democrats
"Tradition and Security", represents two things the Social Democrats once delivered (they always carried the Swedish flag in their May Day parades), but that no party has been able to offer convincingly since the economic storms of the mid-80s when the "Swedish model" went bankrupt.
None of the people who runs Sweden thinks these things will ever come back. All the herring agree the free market is the way forward. The result can be bewildering to English ears: Swedish Conservatives sounding to the left of New Labour when they talk about social mobility, Swedish Social Democrats sounding to the right of Cameron's Conservatives when they talk about the benefits of competition.
Most of the article deals with role the immigration question has played in the campaing, and here´s a bit of the background
There has always been a streak of romantic nationalism in Swedish life. For most of the Social Democratic years, it took a paradoxical form: people here believed Sweden was the best country in the world because it was the most internationalist. This led to a fantastically generous policy on asylum and integration. Nearly a third of Sweden's population today are either immigrants or the children of immigrants. There are more Iranians living in Sweden than there are Danes. In 2007, one small town outside Stockholm took in more Iraqi refugees than the whole of the US.
When the columnist writes people thought Sweden was the best country because it was the most internationalist, I would add, and the most modern. The Swedish post-war identity is very tied to being modern and progressive.
The other two parties in the Red-Green coalition are the Left (former communists) and the Greens. These two parties have never been in government.
Wikipedia´s overview of all the Swedish party here.
Sweden Democrats.
The rise of the Sweden Democrats may be the most intriguing aspect of the election. I will refer you the Guardian article also mentioned above to explain this phenomena without quoting it.
The party´s campaign video which the Swedish media refused to broadcast reveals what they are about:
The party has experienced several threats during the campaign. There was also one report of a violent attack against one of their members, but today it was revealed that this attack probably was a hoax. This hoax of course might hurt them in the election and maybe keep them out of the parliament.
If you´re interested there´s a longer presentation by Al Jazeera of the immigration situation in Sweden here:
UPDATE:
Prognosis from Swedish Televison with more than half of the votes counted:
Very good result from the ruling centre-right alliance, which will continue in government (and especially for the Moderate Party) The question is whether they will be depending on a support party or not. Right now it´s unclear whether they will get a majority on their own.
A terrible result for the Social Democrats.
And the anti-immigration Sweden Democrats seems to be represented in the parliament for the first time.
The Moderates: 30.3
Christian Democrats: 5.5
Liberal People´s party: 7.1
Center party 6.4
Left: 5.7
Social Democrats: 30.7
The Greens: 7.2
Sweden Democrats 5.8
Latest mandate prognosis
The Alliance (centre-righ): 172
Red-Greens: 157
Sweden Democrats: 20
FINAL UPDATE (comment from Drobin)
The government remains in charge, but falls three seats short an absolute majority. They should still be able to govern without support from SD, in particular since the law was recently changed so that the Government's budget will automatically prevail, unless a competing budget wins a larger number of votes in parliament. In other words, you cannot simply vote the budget down without presenting one that is able to get more votes. On non-economic issues (such as troops in Afghanistan) things might be tougher for the Government, and if it falls before the next election, it might well be over an issue like that.
All established parties except the Moderates and the Greens lost seats.