This diary will discuss the current state of the 2010 gubernatorial and senatorial races in the North Region (Norte) of Brazil, to identify the general political trends from region to region and state to state. The election will be held on October 3rd.
Basic background information on the structure of Brazilian Elections and the current partisan balance of Congress can be found in diaries here and here. The Southeast, South, Northeast and Central-West have all been discussed in earlier diaries.
Brazil's North region is the largest and least densely populated. It covers 42% of Brazil's total land area. Six of its seven states lie completely within the Amazon rainforest. This diary will cover three states: Pará, Amapá, and Tocantins. The remaining four states will be covered in the next (and last) diary in this series.
The North region of Brazil encompasses the Amazon Rainforest, and it is imagery of this region that usually comes to mind when foreigners think of the word "Brazil." For most of Brazil's history, this region has been the country's least populous, until the recent growth of industry in the principal metropolitan areas of Belém and Manaus. Its two largest states (Amazonas and Pará) are the two largest states in all of Brazil in terms of land area. Pará especially has experienced rapid growth in the last two decades and now contains half of the population of the entire region. Because of this, it has become the state most threatened by deforestation, especially in its eastern section.
The other five states of the region are much newer. Acre achieved statehood in 1962. This territory formerly belonged to Bolivia, but was settled in the late 19th century by Brazilians. Similar to the American acquisition of Texas, the "Republic of Acre" fought for and won its independence from Bolivia in 1899, and in 1903 was annexed by Brazil. Acre still contains large tracts of primary-growth forest, though it too has not escaped the threat of the saw, especially in the regions surrounding its capital city of Rio Branco. Rondônia achieved statehood in 1982, and has, like Pará, experienced massive deforestation, easily visible in satellite photos. Aerial photos from the mid-1980s show an almost intact rainforest covering the entire state. Sadly, Rondônia has deforested more rapidly than any other state in the Amazon region.
A clause in the Constitution of 1988 provided for statehood for the last two of Brazil's remaining territories, Amapá and Roraima. This same Constitution also carved out the northern half of Goiás to form Brazil's newest state, Tocantins, which achieved statehood in 1989. Tocantins is the only northern state that lies outside of the Amazon. Its terrain is more like that of the Central-West, 90% covered by cerrado (savannah).
The political alignments of the larger parties are shown below. There are also a number of smaller splinter parties from across the political spectrum, and these will be described when necessary.
Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB) - left
Workers' Party (PT) - left-center
Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (PMDB) - center
Progressive Party (PP) - center-right
Brazilian Social Democratic Party (PSDB) - center-right
Democrats (DEM) - right
(For the sake of comparison, on this spectrum the Democratic Party in the USA would be center/center-right and the Republican Party extreme-right.)
In most states, the PSB and PT join together to support the same candidates (and avoid splitting the vote). The same is true for the PSDB and DEM. The more politically centrist (and theoretically "bigger tent") parties such as PMDB and PP may sometimes join with the left in one state and with the right in another.
Pará
In 2006, PT candidate Ana Júlia Carepa won the governorship in a surprise run-off upset after 12 straight years of PSDB rule. While Lula and the PT coalition remain popular in the state, Ana Júlia's approval has dropped, most directly related to the mismanagement which caused Belém to be removed from the list of cities that will host a World Cup game in 2014. She is running for re-election, but currently trails her opponent, ex-Governor Simão Jatene, by 13 points. In Pará, the centrist PMDB has not formed a coalition with either side and is running its own candidates.
Governor (PA) -- 19-September (previous 28-August)
Simão Jatene (PSDB) | 43% | (43) |
I-Ana Júlia Carepa (PT) | 30% | (33) |
Domingos Juvenil (PMDB) | 7% | (6) |
Others | 4% | (4) |
|
Blank | 4% | (6) |
Undecided | 12% | (8) |
In the Senate, Two-term Federal Deputy Jader Barbalho of the PMDB has a considerable lead, with incumbent Flexa Ribeiro of the PSDB with a slight advantage over PT candidate Paulo Rocha for the second seat. Just last week, the Regional Electoral Court denied Paulo Rocha's candidacy, stating that he is ineligible to seek office until 2015 because of his involvment in the congressional vote-buying scandal known as the mensalão (which was revealed in 2005). Rocha has appealed the decision and is continuing to campaign, but has seen his poll numbers stagnate, as would be expected. He remains in electoral limbo, just like gubernatorial candidate Joaquim Roriz of Brasília, whose case is being reviewed by the Supreme Electoral Court today.
Senate (PA) -- 19-September (previous 28-August)
Note: percentages sum to 200% because each voter casts 2 votes - the top 2 vote-getters will win in the first round
Jader Barbalho (PMDB) | 42% | (50) |
I-Flexa Ribeiro (PSDB) | 33% | (23) |
Paulo Rocha (PT) | 29% | (28) |
Others | 25% | (26) |
|
Blank | 9% | (15) |
Undecided | 42% | (33) |
Only named 1 candidate | 20% | (25) |
Amapá
The tiny northern state of Amapá is most well-known for the fact that its capital city, Macapá, sits directly on the Equator. The city's principal football stadium, nicknamed the Zerão (literally, the "Big Zero"), was built so that its center line runs exactly down the Equator, with one half of the field in the northern hemisphere and the other in the southern.
Amapá's fixture politician is none other than José Sarney, former President and father of Roseana Sarney, governor of Maranhão. Upon retirement from the Presidency in 1990, he moved to the newly admitted state of Amapá and was elected one of its first Senators in the same year. He was re-elected in 1998 and again in 2006 (he won't be up for election this time). His political allegiances have shifted with those of his state (and Brazil as a whole) - starting out as a supporter of the military regime, he gradually opened the country to democracy during the 1980s and since then has shifted even further to become a supporter of President Lula's government. He is currently serving as President of the Senate (a position with no analogue in the USA).
Amapá's race for governor is by far the most chaotic and most unpredictable of this cycle, even beating that of the Federal District of Brasília. Everything started out fairly normally, with term-limited Waldez Góes resigning at the end of March to run for the Senate (executives must leave office 6 months before an election if they are running for another office), and his Vice-Governor Pedro Paulo taking over. Then, just two weeks ago, a massive Federal sting operation ended up arresting 18 members of the Amapá government, among them Ex-Governor and Senate candidate Góes and sitting Governor Pedro Paulo! Yesterday, Pedro Paulo was released on bail and went immediately back on the campaign trail, proclaiming complete innocence of all charges.
The Amapá election was already somewhat confusing because four strong coalitions were formed here, unlike most states with just two or occasionally three. Pedro Paulo was running for re-election under a center-right coalition that included the rightwing Democrats. He was being challenged by Jorge Amanajás, running under another center-right coalition of PMDB and PSDB, and two center-left candidates, Camilo Capiberibe of the PSB/PT and Luiz Barreto of the PTB. No matter what happens to Pedro Paulo (his numbers have gone off a cliff since his arrest), this election seems almost certain to require a run-off, as no candidate is polling higher than 35%.
Governor (AP) -- 13-September (previous 29-July)
Luiz Barreto (PTB) | 34% | (25) |
Jorge Amanajás (PSDB) | 23% | (24) |
Camilo Capiberibe (PSB) | 17% | (17) |
I-Pedro Paulo (PP) | 11% | (19) |
Others | 1% | (1) |
|
Blank | 3% | (4) |
Undecided | 10% | (9) |
The Senate picture has been equally tossed into confusion, with the arrest of Waldez Góes, Ex-Governor and original frontrunner. It is difficult to imagine a more pure toss-up, with four candidates all within four percentage points of each other. As Góes may be likely to fall further as more is revealed regarding the corruption sting, the only question is which two opponents will benefit the most. So far, João Capiberibe of the PSB and Randolfe Rodrigues of the PSOL (Socialism and Freedom Party) have gained the advantage, while the two incumbent candidates have slipped. With this corruption scandal fresh in voters' minds, it seems that the dominant mood in Amapá has shifted against any and all incumbents.
Senate (AP) -- 13-September (previous 29-July)
Note: percentages sum to 200% because each voter casts 2 votes - the top 2 vote-getters will win in the first round
João Capiberibe (PSB) | 39% | (21) |
I-Gilvam Borges (PMDB) | 36% | (41) |
Randolfe Rodrigues (PSOL) | 36% | (17) |
Waldez Góes (PDT) | 35% | (51) |
I-Papaléo Paes (PSDB) | 12% | (19) |
Others | 4% | (3) |
|
Blank | 3% | (8) |
Undecided | 20% | (16) |
Only named 1 candidate | 15% | (15) |
Tocantins
Brazil's youngest state, created in 1989, also has Brazil's newest capital city: Palmas. Founded in 1990 and characterized by broad avenues, ample green space, geometrically intricate street patterns, and audacious architecture, Palmas resembles a miniature Brasília crossed with a medium-sized city from the American Southwest.
Tocantins is geographically distinct from the rest of the states of the North, covered in cerrado vegetation instead of rainforest. It also resembles the states of the Central-West both culturally and politically. It is currently governed by centrist parties and, also like the Central-West, voters seem satisfied with the status quo.
In the governor's race, Marcelo Miranda of the PMDB is term-limited and running for the Senate. Only two candidates are vying to replace him, Carlos Gaguim of the PMDB (center-left coalition backed by PT) and Siqueira Campos of the PSDB. The race is close, with only 6% separating the two candidates, but it looks like Miranda's successor has the slight upper hand.
Governor (TO) -- 28-August (27-July)
Carlos Gaguim (PMDB) | 43% | (43) |
Siqueira Campos (PSDB) | 37% | (40) |
|
Blank | 3% | (4) |
Undecided | 17% | (13) |
Governor Marcelo Miranda is currently a front-runner to capture one of the Senate seats, while incumbent João Ribeiro of the PR (center-right coalition with PSDB) looks set to keep the other. This race appears stable with little movement and a significant lead for the two front-runners. However, there is still a disproportionately high number of undecideds.
Senate (TO) -- 28-August (27-July)
Note: percentages sum to 200% because each voter casts 2 votes - the top 2 vote-getters will win in the first round
Marcelo Miranda (PMDB) | 40% | (40) |
I-João Ribeiro (PR) | 38% | (39) |
Paulo Mourão (PT) | 22% | (26) |
Vicentinho Alves (PR) | 19% | (15) |
|
Blank | 10% | (9) |
Undecided | 50% | (49) |
Only named 1 candidate | 21% | (22) |
Next Diary: The final diary in this series wraps up the northern states of Amazonas, Acre, Rondônia, and Roraima.