This is your one-stop shop for all the numerical delicacies, and it is going to be quite the smorgasboard from this point out, it would seem. We are now able to count our polling intake here at the Wrap by the dozens, with 31 different polls providing the delicious filling for the Wrap on this Tuesday evening.
The House of Ras, either as a solo artist or in their collaboration with Fox News, are responsible for about a dozen of them, but we also get Republican and Democratic internals, as well as Mason Dixon crossing off every race of note in Idaho.
All that (and more!) in the data-heavy Tuesday edition of the Wrap...
ID-Sen: Yep...you can cross Michael Crapo off of the target list
Not that Democrats had any designs on this seat anyway, of course, but new numbers out today from Mason Dixon confirm that second-term GOP Senator Michael Crapo is in absolutely no danger of losing his seat in the Senate. The poll shows Crapo resting comfortably at 61%, light years ahead of Democrat Tom Sullivan (17%). Crapo has an enviable favorability spread for an incumbent (54/13), while Sullivan is essentially unknown (less than half of voters even recognize his name, and only 11% have an opinion of him).
WI-Sen: Does Feingold's internal polling paint a better picture?
In the wake of today's uber-ugly poll of Wisconsin here at DK, there might be some small amount of solace buried deep in an article over at TPMDC. The article, on the general state of the race leading into the final weeks, included an interesting tidbit from a Wisconsin Democratic operative. The op claims that internal polling taken before the primaries had Feingold leading GOP nominee Ron Johnson 48-41 among all voters, and a slightly tighter 47-43 with "certain voters". Absent more details, there is legitmate grounds for some skepticism, because an anonymous source quoting figures is nowhere near the same thing as a polling memo which gives critical details like...say...the name of the pollster.
WV-Sen: PPP drops bombshell by claiming toss-up in special election
For Dems who got shellshocked by the Scott Brown win in January, the news from PPP this morning must have felt like a bad case of deja vu. PPP, responding to their readers poll on where to poll, headed into West Virginia. And what they found was an almost inconceivable three-point edge (46-43) for Republican John Raese over Democrat Joe Manchin. One killer piece of analysis: nearly a quarter of voters like Manchin, but want Republicans in charge of the Congress. Raese is cleaning house with those voters, suggesting that national winds are trumping local appeal in this rapidly reddening state.
AZ-05: Mitchell up one, according to Democratic pollster
Polling for Project New West, Harstad Research (a fairly prolific Democratic pollster in the Rocky Mountain States) has headed into suburban Phoenix, where they find Democratic incumbent Harry Mitchell clinging to a one-point lead (45-44) over Republican challenger David Schweikert. Nick Coons, the Libertarian in the field, draws 6% of the vote (thanks to Swing State Project for posting the polling memo).
ID-01/ID-02: Incumbents out in front in Gem State
Both freshman Democrat Walt Minnick and veteran Republican Mike Simpson enjoy double digit leads in their battles for re-election to the House in Idaho. Such is the verdict from the aforementioned new Mason-Dixon poll in Idaho. In the 1st district, Democrat Minnick enjoys a ten-point edge (46-36) over Republican Raul Labrador. Over in the 2nd district, Simpson's vote total might be a bit lower than expected, but he still holds a decisive lead over Democrat Mike Crawford (51-23).
KY-06: Chandler internal poll has him dominant over GOP's Barr
If internal polling for veteran Democratic Rep. Ben Chandler is to be believed, the GOP can go ahead and scratch this race off of the target lists. The Mellman Group poll, conducted for Chandler's campaign, gives the incumbent a 53-33 lead over Republican Andy Barr. Given the somewhat inhospitable terrain (the 6th tends to favor GOP candidates at the presidential level), a lot of Republicans held out hope that Chandler would be vulnerable.
LA-02: Richmond's first internal poll puts him up ten on Cao
Democratic nominee Cedric Richmond has released his first internal poll, and it confirms the widely held perception that Republican incumbent Joseph Cao is among the most vulnerable incumbents in the nation. The Anzalone Liszt poll shows Richmond at 45% of the vote, with the GOP incumbent trailing with 35% of the vote. This New Orleans-based district, perhaps unsurprisingly, is one of the few GOP-held districts where close ties to President Obama will be a huge asset. The president has a job approval rating in the 70s here.
NY-29: Public poll confirms likely GOP pickup of Massa's seat
Even most Democrats grudgingly concede that keeping the upstate district once occupied by Democrat Eric Massa in Democratic hands is going to be an
uphill battle. This sentiment is confirmed by new numbers out today from Siena College. The pollsters at Siena have Republican Tom Reed well out in front of Democratic nominee Matt Zeller. At present, the margin sits at fourteen points (44-30). Zeller has an attractive biography, but the district is mixed in the best of circumstances, and GOP-leaning with any kind of headwind for Democrats.
RI-01/RI-02: Democrats hold solid leads in both races
If Mason-Dixon has gone wall-to-wall in Idaho, former college professor Victor Profughi's polling firm (Quest Research) has done the same for Rhode Island. The pollster sees Democratic holds in both races in the state. In the open seat 1st district (which has been on some Republican target lists, given the climate this year), Quest has Democrat David Cicilline well ahead of Republican John Laughlin (49-26). The pollster also gives longtime Dem incumbent Jim Langevin what is described as a "commanding lead" in his battle to keep the 2nd district in Democratic hands.
VA-05: Dem internal has Perriello within striking distance
For the second time this month, a Democratic poll has endangered incumbent Tom Perriello within striking distance of Republican challenger Rob Hurt in this red-leaning district in southern Virginia. The poll, conducted by Benenson Strategies, puts Hurt at 46% and Perriello at 44%. This closely mirrors an early September poll from Global Strategy Group, which also has the margin at two points (44-42). In this poll, right-leaning Indie candidate Jeffrey Clark is at 4% of the vote, still not a big factor in this race.
WA-03: Is Denny giving Herrera Heck? New internal poll says yes
The conventional wisdom in southwestern Washington is that Democrat Denny Heck is going to be hard-pressed to keep the swing 3rd district in the blue column in November. But Heck's own internal polling suggests that Heck is beginning to creep up on Republican nominee Jaime Herrera. The poll, from Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, shows Herrera at 47% of the vote and Heck at 44% of the vote. While releasing an internal showing you losing is usually pretty bad form, the polling memo makes clear that this is a considerable improvement for Heck over previous public and internal polling.
WA-09: SUSA buzzkill tour hits Pierce County
Add another seat to the "bite the fingernails" list, if you buy SurveyUSA's House polling this year. The latest example comes from the southern part of the SeaTac metroplex, where the pollster has longtime Democratic incumbent Adam Smith ahead by just three points over the GOP nominee, Pierce County Councilman Dick Muri (49-46). This is another poll out of Washington by SUSA where the Democrat receives less in the general election polling than he/she received in August's primary elections (Smith logged 51% of the vote in that open primary). Either they're off a bit, or the Democrats have already seen a pretty serious erosion of support in this nominally friendly territory over the past month.
CA-Gov: Is Brown's awakening changing gov's race?
Jerry Brown has (finally) fully engaged in the competitive gubernatorial race in the Golden State, and if the new PPP poll in the state is legit, it is already paying dividends for the Democrat. The pollster puts Brown in the lead by five points (47-42) over Republican nominee Meg Whitman.
One thought: if PPP's poll is legit here (and their track record this cycle is pretty much unparalleled), then Meg Whitman will have dropped nearly $120 million to be trailing by five points. Seeing how even Ras (through their affiliation with Fox News) has this race tied, the PPP result may well be on the right track.
ID-Gov: GOP incumbent leads, but has this race far from locked down
As other pollsters have indicated in ruby-red Idaho, Democrat Keith Allred still has the potential to surprise in this race against incumbent Republican Butch Otter. That's the take from Mason-Dixon, which has Otter up double digits over Allred, but well under that 50% incumbent threshold that's often talked about. The poll has Otter at 45% of the vote, with Allred notching 29%. Other polls have had the race even closer, which has to be at least somewhat surprising in a state where Republican presidential contenders routinely notch 60% of the vote or more.
MA-Gov: Suffolk poll shows Patrick staked to modest lead in 3-way
In the three-candidate duel to determine whether or not Democratic incumbent Deval Patrick keeps his job, the incumbent still holds a respectable lead over Republican Charlie Baker, as Indie candidate Tim Cahill still languishes well behind the duo. Patrick sits at 41% of the vote, according to this new poll from Suffolk University. Baker is back seven points (at 34%), while Cahill still trails in the teens (14%). The previous Suffolk poll in Massachusetts had Patrick leading by a slightly smaller margin (four points).
MI-Gov: PPP confirms recent raft of polling--Snyder up big
It seems like Michigan has been the most polled state in recent weeks, with no less than a half dozen polls highlighting the gubernatorial election between Republican Rick Snyder and Democrat Virg Bernero. The latest edition, from PPP confirms the findings of the rest of the polling deluge: Republican Rick Snyder is up...big. PPP has Snyder at 52% of the vote, with Bernero sitting at 31%. If Bernero has any solace, it comes from (of all places!) Rasmussen, which had the race considerably closer today.
PA-Gov: Quinnipiac gives Republican big lead (again)
Much like their poll in Ohio last week, Quinnipiac sees two things in their latest poll in neighboring Pennsylvania: a record-high partisan spread favoring Republicans, and a huge lead for the Republican candidate in the race. The poll has Republican Tom Corbett leading Democrat Dan Onorato by fifteen points (54-39). However, looking at the Dem/GOP/Indie breakdown of the results, it looks like once again, the polling sample has significantly more Republicans than Democrats. In the last two midterm exit polls (1998 and 2006...remember, no exit polls in 2002), Democrats had 3-to-5 point advantages over the GOP.
Onorato is still a decided underdog, but even if this poll put R's and D's at an identical 40%, with Indies at 20%, the margin would be chopped in half (50-43). Still a respectable lead for Corbett, but not the blowout shown here.
RI-Gov: Quest poll gives Democrats double-digit lead
The same Quest Research poll referenced earlier looked at the gubernatorial race, and found Democrat Frank Caprio with a healthy lead heading into the meat of the general election. The survey puts Caprio up by double digits with the Democrat at 36% of the vote, Indie candidate Lincoln Chafee at 24%, and Republican John Robataille back at 13%. The Chafee campaign immediately dismissed the poll, pointing out that the same pollster had Chafee getting waxed by Club For Growther Stephen Laffey in their contested 2006 Senate primary.
This is one of the bigger helpings of Ras-sie goodness in quite some time. It was augmented by the inclusion of several Fox News polls which, for the uninitiated, are conducted by Pulse Opinion Research (a Rasmussen subsidiary). The numbers, in some cases, are better than average for the Democrats. Signs of a shift to election mode for the House of Ras?!
AK-Sen: Joe Miller (R) 42%, Sen. Lisa Murkowski (WI) 27%, Scott McAdams (D) 25%
CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 45%, Meg Whitman (R) 45%*
CA-Sen: Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) 47%, Carly Fiorina (R) 46%*
CA-Sen: Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) 47%, Carly Fiorina (R) 43%
DE-Sen: Chris Coons (D) 54%, Christine O'Donnell (R) 39%*
NV-Sen: Sharron Angle (R) 46%, Sen. Harry Reid (D) 45%*
NY-Sen-B: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 49%, Joe DiGuardi (R) 39%
OH-Gov: John Kasich (R) 47%, Gov. Ted Strickland (D) 41%*
OH-Sen: Rob Portman (R) 49%, Lee Fisher (D) 36%*
PA-Gov: Tom Corbett (R) 49%, Dan Onorato (D) 39%*
PA-Sen: Patrick Toomey (R) 48%, Joe Sestak (D) 40%*
(*)--Fox News/Pulse Opinion (Pulse Opinion is a Rasmussen subsidiary)