Skip to main content

This is your one-stop shop for all the numerical delicacies, and it is going to be quite the smorgasboard from this point out, it would seem. We are now able to count our polling intake here at the Wrap by the dozens, with 31 different polls providing the delicious filling for the Wrap on this Tuesday evening.

The House of Ras, either as a solo artist or in their collaboration with Fox News, are responsible for about a dozen of them, but we also get Republican and Democratic internals, as well as Mason Dixon crossing off every race of note in Idaho.

All that (and more!) in the data-heavy Tuesday edition of the Wrap...

THE U.S. SENATE

ID-Sen: Yep...you can cross Michael Crapo off of the target list
Not that Democrats had any designs on this seat anyway, of course, but new numbers out today from Mason Dixon confirm that second-term GOP Senator Michael Crapo is in absolutely no danger of losing his seat in the Senate. The poll shows Crapo resting comfortably at 61%, light years ahead of Democrat Tom Sullivan (17%). Crapo has an enviable favorability spread for an incumbent (54/13), while Sullivan is essentially unknown (less than half of voters even recognize his name, and only 11% have an opinion of him).

WI-Sen: Does Feingold's internal polling paint a better picture?
In the wake of today's uber-ugly poll of Wisconsin here at DK, there might be some small amount of solace buried deep in an article over at TPMDC. The article, on the general state of the race leading into the final weeks, included an interesting tidbit from a Wisconsin Democratic operative. The op claims that internal polling taken before the primaries had Feingold leading GOP nominee Ron Johnson 48-41 among all voters, and a slightly tighter 47-43 with "certain voters". Absent more details, there is legitmate grounds for some skepticism, because an anonymous source quoting figures is nowhere near the same thing as a polling memo which gives critical details like...say...the name of the pollster.

WV-Sen: PPP drops bombshell by claiming toss-up in special election
For Dems who got shellshocked by the Scott Brown win in January, the news from PPP this morning must have felt like a bad case of deja vu. PPP, responding to their readers poll on where to poll, headed into West Virginia. And what they found was an almost inconceivable three-point edge (46-43) for Republican John Raese over Democrat Joe Manchin. One killer piece of analysis: nearly a quarter of voters like Manchin, but want Republicans in charge of the Congress. Raese is cleaning house with those voters, suggesting that national winds are trumping local appeal in this rapidly reddening state.

THE U.S. HOUSE

AZ-05: Mitchell up one, according to Democratic pollster
Polling for Project New West, Harstad Research (a fairly prolific Democratic pollster in the Rocky Mountain States) has headed into suburban Phoenix, where they find Democratic incumbent Harry Mitchell clinging to a one-point lead (45-44) over Republican challenger David Schweikert. Nick Coons, the Libertarian in the field, draws 6% of the vote (thanks to Swing State Project for posting the polling memo).

ID-01/ID-02: Incumbents out in front in Gem State
Both freshman Democrat Walt Minnick and veteran Republican Mike Simpson enjoy double digit leads in their battles for re-election to the House in Idaho. Such is the verdict from the aforementioned new Mason-Dixon poll in Idaho. In the 1st district, Democrat Minnick enjoys a ten-point edge (46-36) over Republican Raul Labrador. Over in the 2nd district, Simpson's vote total might be a bit lower than expected, but he still holds a decisive lead over Democrat Mike Crawford (51-23).

KY-06: Chandler internal poll has him dominant over GOP's Barr
If internal polling for veteran Democratic Rep. Ben Chandler is to be believed, the GOP can go ahead and scratch this race off of the target lists. The Mellman Group poll, conducted for Chandler's campaign, gives the incumbent a 53-33 lead over Republican Andy Barr. Given the somewhat inhospitable terrain (the 6th tends to favor GOP candidates at the presidential level), a lot of Republicans held out hope that Chandler would be vulnerable.

LA-02: Richmond's first internal poll puts him up ten on Cao
Democratic nominee Cedric Richmond has released his first internal poll, and it confirms the widely held perception that Republican incumbent Joseph Cao is among the most vulnerable incumbents in the nation. The Anzalone Liszt poll shows Richmond at 45% of the vote, with the GOP incumbent trailing with 35% of the vote. This New Orleans-based district, perhaps unsurprisingly, is one of the few GOP-held districts where close ties to President Obama will be a huge asset. The president has a job approval rating in the 70s here.

NY-29: Public poll confirms likely GOP pickup of Massa's seat
Even most Democrats grudgingly concede that keeping the upstate district once occupied by Democrat Eric Massa in Democratic hands is going to be an
uphill battle. This sentiment is confirmed by new numbers out today from Siena College. The pollsters at Siena have Republican Tom Reed well out in front of Democratic nominee Matt Zeller. At present, the margin sits at fourteen points (44-30). Zeller has an attractive biography, but the district is mixed in the best of circumstances, and GOP-leaning with any kind of headwind for Democrats.

RI-01/RI-02: Democrats hold solid leads in both races
If Mason-Dixon has gone wall-to-wall in Idaho, former college professor Victor Profughi's polling firm (Quest Research) has done the same for Rhode Island. The pollster sees Democratic holds in both races in the state. In the open seat 1st district (which has been on some Republican target lists, given the climate this year), Quest has Democrat David Cicilline well ahead of Republican John Laughlin (49-26). The pollster also gives longtime Dem incumbent Jim Langevin what is described as a "commanding lead" in his battle to keep the 2nd district in Democratic hands.

VA-05: Dem internal has Perriello within striking distance
For the second time this month, a Democratic poll has endangered incumbent Tom Perriello within striking distance of Republican challenger Rob Hurt in this red-leaning district in southern Virginia. The poll, conducted by Benenson Strategies, puts Hurt at 46% and Perriello at 44%. This closely mirrors an early September poll from Global Strategy Group, which also has the margin at two points (44-42). In this poll, right-leaning Indie candidate Jeffrey Clark is at 4% of the vote, still not a big factor in this race.

WA-03: Is Denny giving Herrera Heck? New internal poll says yes
The conventional wisdom in southwestern Washington is that Democrat Denny Heck is going to be hard-pressed to keep the swing 3rd district in the blue column in November. But Heck's own internal polling suggests that Heck is beginning to creep up on Republican nominee Jaime Herrera. The poll, from Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, shows Herrera at 47% of the vote and Heck at 44% of the vote. While releasing an internal showing you losing is usually pretty bad form, the polling memo makes clear that this is a considerable improvement for Heck over previous public and internal polling.

WA-09: SUSA buzzkill tour hits Pierce County
Add another seat to the "bite the fingernails" list, if you buy SurveyUSA's House polling this year. The latest example comes from the southern part of the SeaTac metroplex, where the pollster has longtime Democratic incumbent Adam Smith ahead by just three points over the GOP nominee, Pierce County Councilman Dick Muri (49-46). This is another poll out of Washington by SUSA where the Democrat receives less in the general election polling than he/she received in August's primary elections (Smith logged 51% of the vote in that open primary). Either they're off a bit, or the Democrats have already seen a pretty serious erosion of support in this nominally friendly territory over the past month.

THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES

CA-Gov: Is Brown's awakening changing gov's race?
Jerry Brown has (finally) fully engaged in the competitive gubernatorial race in the Golden State, and if the new PPP poll in the state is legit, it is already paying dividends for the Democrat. The pollster puts Brown in the lead by five points (47-42) over Republican nominee Meg Whitman.

One thought: if PPP's poll is legit here (and their track record this cycle is pretty much unparalleled), then Meg Whitman will have dropped nearly $120 million to be trailing by five points. Seeing how even Ras (through their affiliation with Fox News) has this race tied, the PPP result may well be on the right track.

ID-Gov: GOP incumbent leads, but has this race far from locked down
As other pollsters have indicated in ruby-red Idaho, Democrat Keith Allred still has the potential to surprise in this race against incumbent Republican Butch Otter. That's the take from Mason-Dixon, which has Otter up double digits over Allred, but well under that 50% incumbent threshold that's often talked about. The poll has Otter at 45% of the vote, with Allred notching 29%. Other polls have had the race even closer, which has to be at least somewhat surprising in a state where Republican presidential contenders routinely notch 60% of the vote or more.

MA-Gov: Suffolk poll shows Patrick staked to modest lead in 3-way
In the three-candidate duel to determine whether or not Democratic incumbent Deval Patrick keeps his job, the incumbent still holds a respectable lead over Republican Charlie Baker, as Indie candidate Tim Cahill still languishes well behind the duo. Patrick sits at 41% of the vote, according to this new poll from Suffolk University. Baker is back seven points (at 34%), while Cahill still trails in the teens (14%). The previous Suffolk poll in Massachusetts had Patrick leading by a slightly smaller margin (four points).

MI-Gov: PPP confirms recent raft of polling--Snyder up big
It seems like Michigan has been the most polled state in recent weeks, with no less than a half dozen polls highlighting the gubernatorial election between Republican Rick Snyder and Democrat Virg Bernero. The latest edition, from PPP confirms the findings of the rest of the polling deluge: Republican Rick Snyder is up...big. PPP has Snyder at 52% of the vote, with Bernero sitting at 31%. If Bernero has any solace, it comes from (of all places!) Rasmussen, which had the race considerably closer today.

PA-Gov: Quinnipiac gives Republican big lead (again)
Much like their poll in Ohio last week, Quinnipiac sees two things in their latest poll in neighboring Pennsylvania: a record-high partisan spread favoring Republicans, and a huge lead for the Republican candidate in the race. The poll has Republican Tom Corbett leading Democrat Dan Onorato by fifteen points (54-39). However, looking at the Dem/GOP/Indie breakdown of the results, it looks like once again, the polling sample has significantly more Republicans than Democrats. In the last two midterm exit polls (1998 and 2006...remember, no exit polls in 2002), Democrats had 3-to-5 point advantages over the GOP.

Onorato is still a decided underdog, but even if this poll put R's and D's at an identical 40%, with Indies at 20%, the margin would be chopped in half (50-43). Still a respectable lead for Corbett, but not the blowout shown here.

RI-Gov: Quest poll gives Democrats double-digit lead
The same Quest Research poll referenced earlier looked at the gubernatorial race, and found Democrat Frank Caprio with a healthy lead heading into the meat of the general election. The survey puts Caprio up by double digits with the Democrat at 36% of the vote, Indie candidate Lincoln Chafee at 24%, and Republican John Robataille back at 13%. The Chafee campaign immediately dismissed the poll, pointing out that the same pollster had Chafee getting waxed by Club For Growther Stephen Laffey in their contested 2006 Senate primary.

THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA

This is one of the bigger helpings of Ras-sie goodness in quite some time. It was augmented by the inclusion of several Fox News polls which, for the uninitiated, are conducted by Pulse Opinion Research (a Rasmussen subsidiary). The numbers, in some cases, are better than average for the Democrats. Signs of a shift to election mode for the House of Ras?!

AK-Sen: Joe Miller (R) 42%, Sen. Lisa Murkowski (WI) 27%, Scott McAdams (D) 25%
CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 45%, Meg Whitman (R) 45%*
CA-Sen: Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) 47%, Carly Fiorina (R) 46%*
CA-Sen: Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) 47%, Carly Fiorina (R) 43%
DE-Sen: Chris Coons (D) 54%, Christine O'Donnell (R) 39%*
NV-Sen: Sharron Angle (R) 46%, Sen. Harry Reid (D) 45%*
NY-Sen-B: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 49%, Joe DiGuardi (R) 39%
OH-Gov: John Kasich (R) 47%, Gov. Ted Strickland (D) 41%*
OH-Sen: Rob Portman (R) 49%, Lee Fisher (D) 36%*
PA-Gov: Tom Corbett (R) 49%, Dan Onorato (D) 39%*
PA-Sen: Patrick Toomey (R) 48%, Joe Sestak (D) 40%*

(*)--Fox News/Pulse Opinion (Pulse Opinion is a Rasmussen subsidiary)

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Tue Sep 21, 2010 at 07:46 PM PDT.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

  •  Ky-Sen: Roves Group is coming (6+ / 0-)

    For Jack Conway. Yep, Rove's group,American Crossroads.

    If you can, Throw a little support, of any kind, Conway's way.

    :-)

    •  We don't have the money to compete. (4+ / 0-)

      Rove's outfit brought in $14M in August alone. Chamber Of Commerce is finally hitting the air as well in the same five states that Rove is up in. Then you have Club for Growth and the National GOP Committees, and the Paulites and teabaggers donating to the Paul campaign from across the nation.

      Dems in key states have to be getting outspent at least 5-to-1.  

      Sen. Reid on GOP threat of filibuster on tax cuts - "by Republican logic, until rich CEOs get what they want, middle-class families can't get what they need."

      by Jonze on Tue Sep 21, 2010 at 07:56:09 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Right, so let's give up (6+ / 0-)

        Jonze, you can be such a downer.

        I find the whole thing scary and disappointing as well, especially as this money is being directed at such flaming extremists. If we think the whole Senate has been held hostage NOW, what's it going to be like with people like Rand Paul who are just out of their minds and well to the right of 90% of Americans at least (probably including many people who will vote for him, not being informed about how extreme he is)?

        And as for us, are we just going to keep blaming Obama that he can't somehow bend these people to his will?

        De-orangify Congress: Justin Coussoule for Oh-08 http://www.coussouleforcongress.com/

        by anastasia p on Tue Sep 21, 2010 at 08:26:58 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  But we're so much better, with such very good (0+ / 0-)

        candidates.  "Yes, we can."

  •  about damn time (7+ / 0-)

    Jerry Brown has (finally) fully engaged in the competitive gubernatorial race in the Golden State

    I'm hoping that some independents are half as sick of Meg's ads as I am.

    "Great is the guilt of an unnecessary war" - John Adams

    by esquimaux on Tue Sep 21, 2010 at 07:52:11 PM PDT

    •  I sincerly hope that California voters (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      mirandasright

      decide to play a cruel practicle joke on Meg W.

      Spend record money and lose. I'd love to be a fly on the wall in last week of the campaign as Team Meg faces a five pt deficit....

      "Oh what to do?"

      " I know....spend more money!"

      " Good call, that'll work. Lets do it!"

      All the while voters having decided, the more she spent, the less likely they are to vote for her....
      In other words.... string her along.

      Just for shits and giggles.

      it tastes like burning...

      by eastvan on Tue Sep 21, 2010 at 09:06:49 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  And I very much suspect this.... (0+ / 0-)

        . And what they found was an almost inconceivable three-point edge (46-43) for Republican John Raese over Democrat Joe Manchin

        At some point there are polls you just have to call bullshit on.

        I could see a non blow out by the Dems. But not a three point loss. That's just detachment from reality fueled by a narrative, that shows signs, more so every day, of not being the actual narrative....

        it tastes like burning...

        by eastvan on Tue Sep 21, 2010 at 09:11:48 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Hey, Meg's keeping somebody employed. (0+ / 0-)

        Hopefully, a lot of people are getting paychecks in the service of a failed campaign.  I don't begrudge the worker bees.

  •  food for thought (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    atdnext, djbender, bythesea

    have you ever eaten a delicacy from a smorgasbord.

    i have! it was yummy had a redish sauce

  •  Hurt has skipped out on four debates now... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    Because the third party further right indie is included. So Perriello just debates the other guy.  Seems Hurt does doesn't want to be attacked from his right in a debate.  

    Sen. Reid on GOP threat of filibuster on tax cuts - "by Republican logic, until rich CEOs get what they want, middle-class families can't get what they need."

    by Jonze on Tue Sep 21, 2010 at 07:53:09 PM PDT

  •  This NY-29er isn't giving up that easily. (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, atdnext, akmk, StepLeftStepForward

    As I just finished writing in my diary about the Siena poll, that 44-30% figure is based on an electorate that effectively knows nothing about either candidate.

    Our guy, Matt Zeller, is a personable young Afghanistan veteran.

    Their guy is a freakin' debt collector.

    A little money and some creative advertising could turn this race around, if everyone weren't so quick to write it off.

    You don't get to say, "I support the First Amendment, but..." (h/t Chris Hayes)

    by ipsos on Tue Sep 21, 2010 at 07:54:49 PM PDT

  •  RI polls with a grain of salt (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    atdnext, akmk

    FWIW, Rasmussen had Chafee up by 3 yesterday.  Whatever.  It'll be about turnout--which was miserable for the Dems on primary day (which is defacto election day for many races)--and how many Robataille voters jump to Chafee if it looks like Caprio will win.

    "Nonsense!" said Alice, very loudly and decidedly, and the Queen was silent.

    by RIposte on Tue Sep 21, 2010 at 07:57:00 PM PDT

  •  I wonder if Whitman's ad featuring (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, atdnext, Bush Bites, bythesea

    Bill Clinton backfired, by essentially making Clinton an issue in the race. After that, Clinton endorsed Brown and now will be campaigning for him. BTW, the previous FOX News/Rasmussen poll, taken just last week I believe, had Whitman by 6%, so yeah, definitely seems like Brown has the momentum. CA-GOV win for Dems, would be huge for several reasons.  

    •  That's an interesting race. (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew, bythesea, Jonze, mirandasright

      I can't tell what the hell's going on from halfway across the country, but I thought dragging clinton into it could backfire.

      Does Brown talk about his years as Oakland mayor and Attorney general too?

      Seems from the outside that people think he's just some guy from the past, but he has a great resume and has stayed involved in government for years.

      The last time we broke a president, we ended up with Reagan.

      by Bush Bites on Tue Sep 21, 2010 at 08:18:38 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  So, Taegan Goddard is tweeting about a poll: (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Christin, atdnext

    From Taegan Goddard's twitter feed:

       Another eye opening poll will be released at 6:30 am tomorrow...

    Any guesses as to what the news is? It has to be bad news knowing Goddard.

  •  oh for the love of god. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, akmk, flhiii88

    PA-Sen: Patrick Toomey (R) 48%, Joe Sestak (D) 40%*

    really PA?
    i mean seriously?

    christ.
    lately? i have ceased freaking out and being worried, upset and on edge.
    i really am not.
    i look at these numbers and go whatthefuckever.
    and plan another weekend of canvassing.
    and if we lose here in NJ too?
    whatthefuckever. i tried.
    and that. is that.
    i just can't do this getting upset thing anymore.
    it's why when someone on here threatens me ???? (Me?) by withholding their vote?  like i will suffer or get hurt? like i'm running?
    i'm like yeah, you just hold your breath till you turn blue and pass out.
    that will really hurt me a lot.

    that my america!

    “He fell out of the Stupid tree and hit every branch on the way down”

    "Oh no...you changed your hair color? It's just so dark. You like it? And with your skin tone?" My Beloved Mom, December 25 2007, once again on notice.

    by Christin on Tue Sep 21, 2010 at 07:58:45 PM PDT

  •  SUSA polls have seemed highly suspicious (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, atdnext, bythesea

    to me so far this year. I'd take them with a grain of salt.

    Steve, would you mind taking a look at SwingState's latest info about Raj Goyle's race in KS-04? I think he's really got a chance (and so does his own internal polling, which has him trailing only by 2 points against his opponent, compared to SUSA's 10) and I am tired of seeing that whole race just written off by conventional wisdom, so far based solely on SUSA polls. Goyle has great name recognition, some important endorsements, and is running to win. Just sayin'.

    Thanks for your efforts and round-ups.

  •  NY-Gov breaking: Bloomberg to endorse Cuomo (10+ / 0-)

    according to WABC

    "Specialization is for insects." -- Heinlein

    by BachFan on Tue Sep 21, 2010 at 08:05:47 PM PDT

  •  Today's GOP blocking of the defense bill... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, Corneliusmingus, KingofSpades

    IMHO opens them to stuff like this.

    Again, Reid has some of the best ads of the year.

  •  Feingold aide anonymously leaking positive data (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    akmk, James Allen

    Stop the presses!

    It's a whole new ballgame!

    The last time we broke a president, we ended up with Reagan.

    by Bush Bites on Tue Sep 21, 2010 at 08:06:09 PM PDT

  •  imagine if the country didn't hate the GOP (4+ / 0-)

    As Kos keeps assuring us.  We'd really be in trouble then. (Snark.)  We might lose 70 House seats and 12 Senate instead of just 45 and 9.  Not to mention governorships in such "red" states as PA, WI, IL, IA, MI and others.  

    Hey, I clap as hard as anyone.  But this is America; and Americans are one-half idiots who don't recall past last week let alone last Administration, and they are all 'angry' and stuff.  

    Andrew Mellon & GOP: 'In a Depression, assets return to their rightful owners'

    by Tuffie on Tue Sep 21, 2010 at 08:07:24 PM PDT

  •  As if Rasmussen wasn't weak-sucky enough (6+ / 0-)

    (*)--Fox News/Pulse Opinion (Pulse Opinion is a Rasmussen subsidiary)

    Live more, fear less, fight harder

    by Anthony Page aka SecondComing on Tue Sep 21, 2010 at 08:13:53 PM PDT

  •  MA-AG GOP candidate breaks law... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew

    nice, eh?

    APNewsBreak: Mass. AG candidate skirts finance law

    Why do these people think laws don't apply to them?

    "It's not like she's marrying out of her species or anything," Ms. Lynch said.

    by mem from somerville on Tue Sep 21, 2010 at 08:14:03 PM PDT

    •  Is Coakley as bad an AG candidate? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      mem from somerville

      Sen. Reid on GOP threat of filibuster on tax cuts - "by Republican logic, until rich CEOs get what they want, middle-class families can't get what they need."

      by Jonze on Tue Sep 21, 2010 at 08:27:08 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  She didn't have an opponent (0+ / 0-)

        until this write-in campaign by the GOP guy...hard to say.

        I don't remember her having trouble in any other race before.

        And honestly, as a hard ass, she's not the worst AG if that's what you want. (It's not always what I want, but I can see the appeal.) She's not a team player, though, and the Senate was the wrong place for her anyway.

        "It's not like she's marrying out of her species or anything," Ms. Lynch said.

        by mem from somerville on Tue Sep 21, 2010 at 08:41:02 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  The West Virginia race (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    auapplemac

    has an odd similiarity with the Florida Senate Race.  Charlie Crist for most of the year has been popular, even among Republicans.  And yet Crist was chased out of the GOP, and is going to lose.  People liked him as Governor, but are so desperate for change they didn't want him in the Senate.

    Same dynamic seems at work in West Virginia in a strange sort of way.

    The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

    by fladem on Tue Sep 21, 2010 at 08:28:06 PM PDT

  •  Snyder won't debate (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, LordMike, Corneliusmingus

    For the first time in my adult life, there won't be a Michigan Gubernatorial debate.  Unreal.

    "The majority of a single vote is as sacred as if unanimous." - Thomas Jefferson

    by cartwrightdale on Tue Sep 21, 2010 at 08:31:27 PM PDT

  •  Adjusting PPP (R-l) to reality (WI and WV) (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Davidsfr

    PPP (R-l), which if you're wondering stands for Rasmussen-lite -- has really put out some extraordinary polling as of late.

    They are expecting some HUGE, groundbreaking shifts in voter ideology (Liberal/Moderate/Conservative) something that rarely, if ever, occurs.  Voters constantly switch between labeling themselves Democrats or Republicans or Independents, but they're pretty comfortable with the Liberal/Moderate/Conservative labels because they don't really belong to any particular party.

    In fact, despite Party ID going from +0 Democrat in Election 2004 to +7 Democrat in Election 2008, Ideology stayed almost identical:

    From 21/45/34 to 22/44/34

    With that in mind, here are some adjustments I've made to PPP polling for the "shocker" races in WI and WV using the average of 2008, 2006 and 2004 voter ideology to "estimate" voter turn-out (just like what the various pollsters do with their "Likely Voter" screens).

    West Virginia (PPP in parenthesis)
    Liberal 17 (13)
    Moderate 49 (42)
    Conservative 34 (45)

    Wisconsin (PPP in parenthesis)
    Liberal 22 (*)
    Moderate 48 (*)
    Conservative 30 (*)

    * The cross-tabs for the Wisconsin poll are not showing up, so I can't find what PPP found the L/M/C breakdown to be in the state.

    And here are the adjustments for the two races:

    West Virginia (PPP in parenthesis)
    Manchin 48 (43)
    Raese 41 (46)
    Manchin +7 (Raese +3)

    Wisconsin (PPP in parenthesis)
    Feingold 49 (41)
    Johnson 45 (52)
    Feingold +4 (Johnson +11)

    Not surprisingly, the internal poll that the Feingold camp released matches closely with these findings.  

    I can understand shifts in Party ID/Turn-out, but not in Ideology. You don't just go from being Liberal to Moderate, or Moderate to Conservative overnight.  Here are the 2004, 2006 and 2008 Liberal/Moderate/Conservative numbers for the two states:

    West Virginia (PPP in parenthesis)
    Liberal 17, 18, 16 (13/-4 from average)
    Moderate 50, 49, 48 (42/-7 from average)
    Conservative 33, 35, 34 (45/+11 from average)

    Wisconsin (PPP in parenthesis)
    Liberal 20, 24, 23 (*)
    Moderate 48, 50, 47 (*)
    Conservative 32, 26, 31 (*)

    * The cross-tabs for the Wisconsin poll are not showing up, so I can't find what PPP found the L/M/C breakdown to be in the state.

    I really hope PPP gets a handle on their atrocious likely voter screens as we get closer to the election. Likely Voter models really shouldn't even be used until October, anyways, but Rasmussen has been quite effective at using them so it makes sense that others would join along.

    •  Thanks for that insight (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew, v2aggie2

      although PPP isn't republican partisan and does have a good track record, these likely electorates do raise some questions. Your WV conversion actually matches Rasmussen's last poll in WV--not so for Wisconsin, unfortunately.

    •  Age (0+ / 0-)

      only 7% under 30? Wisconsin and Minnesota always lead in turnout from the youngest eligibles, thanks to at the polls registration.

      The poll was taken over a weekend with not just nice but splendid weather, so the only people at home by their landlines were watching football, no hikers, bikers, etc.

      Agricultural hemp is "Jobs, Jobs, Jobs."

      by ben masel on Wed Sep 22, 2010 at 07:09:39 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Hey, Steve. Give those unknowns a chance to get (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    greenomanic

    a little better known before ballyhooing the early (highly questionable) poll numbers.

    Perceptions matter.

  •  This is all really sickening (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    auapplemac
    Its amazing that we are favored to lose the House when we have a three to two majority.  

    This is mostly Obama's fault, who has been politically tin eared since he got elected.  He is in real danger of becomming the Democratic version of George W. Bush.

  •  Anyone from Ohio have an opinion about how (0+ / 0-)

    Brunner would have done against Portman?  I gather Brunner had trouble raising money, but I'm not sure what that would have meant in the general.

  •  The EBay feedback (0+ / 0-)

    must not be great for the listing "California Senate Seat".  "Bid a lot of money, still couldn't get it. *"

    The adjective that applies to Christine O'Donnell is not "DiVinyl".

    by AZphilosopher on Wed Sep 22, 2010 at 02:22:47 AM PDT

  •  Why do you even cite Rasmussen? (0+ / 0-)

    You (the DK community) cite this piece of trash and then complain when we get upset about it.

    And, seeing Sharron Angle ahead of Harry Reid makes me very very angry.

    Another suggestion, this to the DK head of advertising ... Give Joe Sestak free advertising.  Might as well do the same for all Democrats.  I'm also angry at seeing the number of Toomey ads on here.  What a slap in the face.

    The true danger in politics is when people in power elevate ideological purity over their basic humanity, empathy, and common sense. -- thereisnospoon

    by alliedoc on Wed Sep 22, 2010 at 03:30:59 AM PDT

  •  WA-03 poll smells like baloney (0+ / 0-)

    Denny Heck (D-WA03) is the big money guy, the one that HAD to be the nominee or the sky would fall. And now they're resorting to releasing an internal poll showing he's not going to lose as badly as they feared? That's just sad.

    There's been no news in the race of any importance whatsoever, and the tee-vee spots are not in heavy rotation yet, but somehow there's been this big movement in the race. Yeah, right. Sounds to me like the DCCC might be having second thoughts. Well the corporate wing got their preferred candidate, and they can take responsibility for the loss when it comes.

  •  "THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES": Where's Texas? (0+ / 0-)

    ONCE AGAIN, there is no MENTION OF THE FACT THAT THERE IS A FREAKIN' GOVERNOR'S RACE IN T E X A S !!!!  (oh, dear... was I shouting?)

    Why does no one here seem to think this matters?  Rick Perry is a threat, and we need to stop him.

    I had some thoughts on this earlier today:  (shameless, p.o'd diary pimping):  "Texas Races Matter...to All of Us"

    http://www.dailykos.com/...

    Peace.

    Torture is Wrong! We live near W so you don't have to. Send love.

    by tom 47 on Wed Sep 22, 2010 at 08:17:50 AM PDT

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site