Yes, just one poll. And things can change, blah blah. But the size of the effects reported in this AP-GfK poll are so large that it seems hard to deny the trouble we're in. Basically, the numbers lead to this conclusion:
Independents look just like Republicans.
Comforting. The Independents the Democrats attracted in 2006 and 2008 are now repelled by and disgusted with Democrats. Nice
More below ....
To wit:
58 percent of independents and 60 percent of Republicans said politics is making them angry, compared with 31 percent of Democrats who said so. About 7 in 10 independents and Republicans were disgusted, compared with 4 in 10 Democrats, and independents and Republicans were likelier than Democrats to be disappointed, depressed and frustrated.
As we know, emotions are important in elections.
independents, who can be pivotal in many congressional races, prefer their GOP candidate over the Democrat by 52 percent to 36 percent — which grows to 62 percent to 29 percent among independents considered likeliest to vote.
Uh oh.
Only about a third of independents say the country is moving in the right direction and more than half say Obama is doing a poor job as president. Three-quarters disapprove of Congress, only about a third want Democrats to control Capitol Hill next year and more than 8 in 10 call the economy poor — similar to Republicans and exceeding the two-thirds of Democrats who say so.
These are very big effects. We're talking way beyond +/-4% error here.
I know, I'm acting like Chicken Little - as in "the sky is falling" - but this looks serious to me. Critical even. Call me an alarmist.
I don't think this is something a grassroots effort can fix. We're just second- to third-hand messengers. We need the Dem leaders to step up and get as activated as they want their base to be. Perhaps a huge ad blitz in the next month or so might help, but it better be a doozy.
To my mind, the big question that needs answering now, if it's not too late already, is why we lost the Independents. I've got my own ideas and by and large they focus on Obama's lack of leadership and unbelievably poor messaging. More importantly is his lack of bold action or his failure to communicate taking bold action.
Obama gave into Republicans before negotiations started on one issue after another, and my guess is Independents see him as weak. And weak is death in politics. Independents - most people - wanted big changes, or at least a college try at it, and they didn't get the change or the try. Expectations, raised by Obama's campaign of hope and change so effectively communicated, were dashed. Dashed expectations are also death in politics, and the higher the expectations, the more gruesome the death.