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I have always deleted e-mails from progressive/democrat mailers asking for money, because I've been out of it for quite some time. But what I've seen by the far-right in this election cycle is like nothing I have ever seen before.

My strategy was to vote for my favorite person running (Alan Grayson), and then to give to people running in my area, like strong progressives Paul Hodes and Ann Kuster. I donated $10 to each of their campaigns. I don't make that much in the first place, so it felt like a lot (but then again, it doesn't if you use a debit card). Since I work at Wal-Mart, I'm not rolling in Benjamins. I'm 21 and still live with my parents. I'm probably the most liberal out of all my friends, and there are a lot of Ron Paul types in NH (Live free or die!). Watching the news is depressing, and there are plenty of reasons:

"Democrats gonna be wiped out in November!"
"Obama's losing his cool!"
Obama's hairs are greying!

And I've had enough of it. And of course, if that's not enough...

"I’m not going to have any more babies but I sure get to pay for it on my insurance."

NIES: I tell them to be careful. You have to wear a condom. You have to protect yourself when you're going to have sex, because they're having it anyway...There's nothing that you or me can do about it.

O'DONNELL: The sad reality is -- yes, there is something you can do about it. And the sad reality, to tell them slap on a condom is not --

NIES: You're going to stop the whole country from having sex?

O'DONNELL: Yeah. Yeah!

Video at Huffpo

I'm actually really optimistic though. I have a constant habit of looking at the polls and imagining outcomes. Also, there's something nobody has talked much about (that I know of) and it's this...

There is an inherent conservative bias in polling.

This is because a lot of voters like me (the youth vote) don't have landline phones. Because of the bad economy, a lot of people still live with their parents, and so I add a few points in the democrats favor. So here's my optimistic outlook:

Every sitting democratic incumbent except for Blanche Lincoln will keep their seats.

Open races:

I had electoral-vote on for a while and here's what it did: It was showing dems 52 seats to a republican 47 and a tie, and when I refreshed it, it is now saying 54 democrats, republicans 44 and a tie.

also, fivethirtyeight has similar results

If we can really, REALLY get out the vote, and especially the youth vote, we can flip this baby around! Especially with tightening in Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, Pennsylvania and Alaska.

We can win this. My prediction is that we will stave off a wave and at the most optimistic, I see us with 61 seats, which is actually a monumental victory. Whaddaya say?

Originally posted to greenpunx on Sun Sep 26, 2010 at 02:00 PM PDT.

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