Rep. Martin Heinrich (D) 50 (45)
Jon Barela (R) 43 (36)
This is consistent with an Alberqueue Journal poll at the end of August that gave Heinrich a six-point lead. It's also in line with a poll from the conservative American Action Forum in late August that had Heinrich up 49-42.
The last time PPP polled this race was February. They noted then
Heinrich is in pretty solid shape, leading Jon Barela 45-36. He actually trails 44-31 with independents, but picks up basically the same share of the Democratic vote (73%) that Barela does of the Republican vote (74%). In a district with a heavy Democratic lean that's enough for the early lead.
It's too early to completely write Barela off though, as he has only 28% name recognition at this point. It's conceivable that his standing could improve as he becomes better known, especially if this is a district national Republicans decide they want to invest in.
The Republican has made no real inroad in seven months and Heinrich is still enjoying high favorables--52%, up there with both of the state's Senators. So it might be time to consider writing Barela off in this district that is definitely trending Blue.
President Obama, who won the district by 20 points is going to be there tomorrow, which should only help activate some of the 2008 voters to come out again for Heinrich.