Fox News thinks (or at least claims) that the Republicans have a good shot at retaking the Senate in 2010.
But Obama has actually started campaigning, now. Like he said, he does know a little bit about campaigning.
It reminds me, though, of Obama's presidential campaign. My father complained often "Why isn't he responding to [X blatant lie]": my explanation was that his campaign was like a high jumper. When executing the move called the Fosbury Flop, the only part of the jumper that's that high is what's actually over the bar, the rest is lower.
In the same way, now that we're into the home stretch, now we begin our sprint: Obama may yet bring us home. In 2008, the teabaggers were enthusiastic in the summer, which accomplished nothing but exhausted them.
There are 35 Senatorial races. I'm going to go through race by race, and share my (optimistic) thoughts on the race. The Wikipedia article "United States Senate elections, 2010" is a major source of information. Many of these judgments are based on polls, which are inherently unimportant: if voters HATED Democrats on November 1 and 3, but loved them on November 2, the Democrats would gain seats. The only poll that matters is the one conducted by states' Departments of State on November 2. Nonetheless, these pundits' assessments are a good place to start.
The following ten seats are thought to be safe GOP by all the pundits the Wikipedia article follows:
Alabama: Not much to say here. It would be nice to take Richard Shelby out, but he's been in since 1986. It surprises me a bit that he wasn't teabagged, though, since he was elected as a Democrat.
Arizona: It would be great to take McCain out, and his Democratic opponent, Rodney Glassman, is a really good guy who advertises and is discussed on Dailykos often. McCain got schooled in a debate recently, and we'll see if that's enough for Glassman to pull off the upset.
Georgia: Since the Republican incumbent is a first-termer, he probably should be vulnerable, but in this political climate, it would be a long shot.
Idaho: Not a surprise that we don't have a good challenge to the incumbent idiot.
Kansas: This state is also a disappointment, Obama took the most popular Democrat, Kathleen Sebelius, out of the state, and the polling doesn't look encouraging.
North Dakota: Not much to say here, long-time Dem senator Byron Dorgan abandoned us, and the GOP looks poised to take this seat by 40 points. There was a Daily Kos article today.
Oklahoma: Same as Idaho, we have an entrenched Republican incumbent in a red state during a Republican-friendly year.
South Carolina:This is Jim Demint versus Cthulhu. I don't know that anyone could've taken out Demint, but the winner of the Democratic primary doesn't have a chance.
South Dakota: There is no Democrat running in this race, even though South Dakota did have a powerful Democrat in Senate for years (Tom Daschle).
Utah: The Incumbent Senator was primaried by a teabagger who doesn't really have a good relationship with the state legislature, and is considering a write-in bid (documented
here), both of which could let a Democrat sneak in, but this is Utah.
The following four seats are thought to be safe Dem by all the pundits the Wikipedia article follows:
Hawaii: The long-time incumbent is poised to crush the challenger: same story as Idaho and Oklahoma, but in this case it's flipped.
Maryland: Everyone holds the long-serving Democratic incumbent to be the prohibitive favorite.
New York A: Two-term incumbent Charles Schumer seems to be crushing the GOoPer.
Vermont: Same as the other three safe-Dem seats: a Dem incumbent is widely expected to crush the opposition.
The following 23 seats are disputed, or there's uncertainty of how they will go:
Alaska: The three-way race between Joe Miller, Lisa Murkowski, and Scott McAdams may provide enough drama for the Democrat to sneak into a red state. The Democrat, who recently posted here on DailyKos thinks so.
Arkansas: This is one of the few seats that I think we shouldn't defend, even if that were an option which it's likely not. The incumbent Democrat, Blanche Lincoln, has consistently been anti-labor, and boasted about that during the campaign. The Republican, John Boozman, will certainly be MORE anti-labor, but Lincoln losing this seat sends messages to other Dems. Lincoln boasts how she defies labor, but she doesn't brag about defying the WalMart leadership.
California:: She of Demon sheep fame does not seem to have the momentum to take out the incumbent. Let's hope it stays that way.
Colorado: It would be great to keep a Dem in office there, even though I've been a bit disappointed by the Democrat. The incumbent is slightly behind, but I hope he's able to catch up.
Connecticut: The Democrat seems to be pulling away here. Let's hope it stays that way.
Delaware: Delaware's GOP candidate is a boon for commedians, and a perpetual source of encouragement for Democrats. There have been many Daily Kos articles about her, including one today.
Florida: Pollster.com is strange on this one, so I'm linking to Wikipedia: this is a big disappointment. Florida's teabagger seems to be pulling away,
Indiana: There was some hope that when Obama took this state in 2008, he had permanently flipped in (like Clinton did with California in 1992). Unfortunately, this race has had the GOoPer consistently ahead.
Illinois: This race illustrates my point beautifully: the Democrat is making recent big gains.
Iowa: The midwestern home of gay marriage looks like it will fall to the Republicans, sadly.
Kentucky: This is the Rand Paul versus Jack Conway race. It's trending in the right direction, but right now Paul still leads comfortably.
Louisiana: Charlie Melancon would be a Blue Dog, but at least he would vote with us SOME of the time, which Vitter likely won't.
Missouri: The Republican candidate, the author of the bank bailout, sadly, is a bit ahead, but there
New Hampshire: Kelly Ayotte, the New Hampshire GOoPer, is consistently polling ahead, but not possibly so. She is by far the most competent teabagger, and the only one that wouldn't be a complete embarrassment to their state.
New York B: Incumbent Kristin Gillibrand seems to be doing okay, but is still somewhat vulnerable.
North Carolina: It would be nice to tell Richard Burr, the former professional baseball player, "You're outa there!", but the polls indicate Elaine Marshall has some work to do.
Ohio: Sadly, the GOoPer is leading here, but the Democrat has rebounded dramatically, so there's reason left to hope.
Oregon: Honestly, I don't know why this one isn't in the Safe Democrat column all the way down. The Republican has never seemed to have a chance.
Pennsylvania: Perhaps the looniest Teabagger running for the Senate this year hails from Pennsylvania, and unfortunately he's currently leading in polls. Pennsylvania elected Rick Santorum (inspiration for the gross sexual slang); I hope we liberals can come together to elect Joe Sestak.
Nevada: The GOoPer here is a frequent source of gaffes, and featured in articles here often. Harry Reid is currently up, and is moving the right direction, but is not safe by any stretch.
Washington: There's an article on Dino Rossi (the corrupt Republican perennial-candidate) here.
West Virginia: The Democrat is still barely leading, but the GOoPer is advancing.
Wisconsin: That Russ Feingold is vulnerable at all speaks to how bad this season is (despite progress). A scandal just broke, though: the GOoper testifying on behalf of protectors of pedophile priests, here.
That last anecdote illustrates my point: the Feingold campaign probably had that video for months, but only is releasing it now when it will be most damaging.
I want to mention the two ladies from Maine also. The Maine Republican Party has moved hard right, discussed here, and will primary each of them unless there's a serious shift. After Brown's victory in Massachusetts would have been a good time for them to shift, but I still think they may. Otherwise they will likely be retired soon.
My conclusion: not only do I think Fox is dead wrong, I think there's a good possibility the Dems will pick up seats. We'll lose North Dakota, Arkansas, and Indiana, granted, but I think we'll take New Hampshire, Alaska, Kentucky, and Florida. Like the track and field coach would say "Leave it all on the road".