Skip to main content

Normally, your humble Wrap curator tries to go for the pithy opener here. But...Hell...with 40 polls on the agenda today, we simply don't have that kind of time, now do we?

Let's dive in...hope you have a free hour!

THE U.S. SENATE

AK-Sen: Pair of polls say Murkowski could win, but.....
Two new polls out today in the highly intriguing three-way battle for Alaska's seat in the U.S. Senate paint a picture of a potential write-in victory for Lisa Murkowski. A CNN poll puts the Republican nominee (Joe Miller) at 38%, with Murkowski on his heels at 36%. Democrat Scott McAdams, the least known of the three, lingers behind at 22%. Later in the day, a Cracium Research poll made an even stronger case that Murkowski is viable, claiming a double-digit lead for the incumbent who is being compelled to forge a write-in campaign. In that poll, Murkowski leads Miller 41-30, with McAdams back at 19%. There is a major caveat, however. Both polls mentioned Murkowski by name on the trial heat, in effect giving her an advantage (her name on the ballot next to Miller and McAdams) that she will not enjoy in November. These polls underscore how terribly difficult it is to poll a race where there is a prominent and potentially viable write-in option.

CA-Sen: Boxer feeling California love, especially among RVs
There is nothing but good news for the Blue team in the latest CNN poll out of the Golden State. Even with the more restrictive likely voter screen, Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer enjoys a nine-point lead over Republican Carly Fiorina (52-43). With the universe opened up to all registered voters, it simply becomes a rout, with Boxer leading Fiorina by a 56-37 margin.

CO-Sen: Bennet pulls into a narrow lead in new DSCC poll
It is a Democratic poll (so use your salt accordingly), but new numbers for the DSCC by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner gives Democratic Senator Michael Bennet a statistically insignificant two-point lead over Republican Ken Buck. The margin is two points (48-46), according to the GQR poll. Furthermore, they did a "temperature reading" on voter sentiments towards the candidates, and found that Bennet is incrementally more liked (43 to 37) than Buck.

FL-Sen: Rubio up double-digits according to new CNN poll
Benefitting from the Crist-Meek split among all voters center and left, Marco Rubio continues to maintain a double-digit edge, according to the new polling from CNN. Rubio leads with 42%, followed by both Crist (31%) and Meek (23%). Even with the wider group of registered voters, Rubio maintains a lead in the mid-to-high single digits (38 to 31) over Crist, with Meek creeping northward to 25%.

IL-Sen: Pair of polls confirm close race, threat of third party spoiler
New numbers from both PPP and CNN make it very clear that the U.S. Senate race in Illinois is a true coin-flip, with the two polls offering a split decision on their projection. The PPP poll was the more pessimistic of the two, with Republican Mark Kirk staked to a four point lead over Democrat Alexi Giannoulias (40-36). Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones could prove to be a spoiler, given his 8% of the vote. Meanwhile, the CNN poll puts Giannoulias in the lead, but by the barest of margins. The poll puts the Democrat ahead of Mark Kirk by a single point (43-42), with Jones sitting on 8%. Under the hood of the poll, it seems clear that Jones support with liberals (double digits) means that he is keeping Kirk at parity with the Democrat. Among the larger universe of registered voters, one will note, Giannoulias' lead expands to four points (42-38).

NC-Sen: PPP latest to confirm Burr lead growing more solid
Once a toss-up, it now seems evident that Republican Richard Burr has consolidated his position in his bid for re-election. The latest piece of evidence was the thirteen point lead (49-36) for Burr found in the latest PPP poll in the state. Libertarian Michael Beitler is well behind (4%). Burr has led Marshall by single digits throughout the summer, but other pollsters (SUSA, Rasmussen, Civitas) hinted that Burr's lead has grown this month.

PA-Sen: Two polls hint at Sestak rebound versus Toomey
Democrats have to be heartened by a new poll out of the Keystone State, and can be heartened by at least a part of another one. It looks from the newest numbers as if Democrat Joe Sestak might be making his long-awaited move on Republican Patrick Toomey. The Franklin and Marshall poll provides good news for both parties, depending on which screen you are buying stock in. Giving us a ton of permutations, F&M finds that Toomey leads Sestak by just three points (32-29) among registered voters. However, as they go forth from there, the pollster gets more bullish on the GOP nominee. Among likely voters, the margin moves to nine (38-29). When leaners are included, the margin moves to twelve points (46-34). The news is considerably better, however, in Susquehanna Research's new poll of likely voters in Pennsylvania. The sometime-GOP pollster (who does some independent work, as well) put Toomey at 45%, with Sestak at 42%. Among those locked into their candidates, the race is almost tied (31-30 Toomey).

THE U.S. HOUSE

AZ-05: New Dem poll gives Mitchell three-point edge
Harry Mitchell's campaign has received a lot of Democratic love as of late, with multiple polls by Democratic pollsters putting him up over Republican David Schweikert. The latest offering comes from Bennett Petts Normington, which gives Mitchell a three-point lead (44-41) over the Republican with likely voters. Interestingly, this poll is one of the first to indicate identical margins in the race whether the screen is for registered voters or likely voters: Mitchell leads 43-40 among RVs.

AZ-07: It's not a tie, but GOP pollster claims race is close
You might recall a couple of weeks ago when a GOP lobbyist went on local TV in Arizona claiming the race between incumbent Democrat Raul Grijalva and Republican Ruth McClung was a dead heat. At the time, both parties denied any polling to that effect. Right on cue, here comes some polling on the race from the GOP candidate's campaign. It's not a dead heat, but if this poll is correct (which is a pretty sizeable if, given that the pollster is an unknown), it's closer than normal. The poll has Grijalva leading the little-known Republican challenger by seven points (42-35). The poll was conducted by someone called American Political Consultants, who has not conducted a poll in the last two years (at least none that I could find). So, let's just say there is some cause for skepticism. There is a big difference between a polling firm doing a poll for a campaign, and a PR/consulting firm doing a poll for a campaign.

CO-02: Even right-wing pollster gives Polis a double-digit lead
The new (and wildly prolific) GOP pollsters at Magellan Strategies are back at it again, and in a race that is on absolutely no one's radar screen. They poll the heavily Democratic 2nd district, and claim that Republican Stephen Bailey is within a dozen points of freshman Democratic incumbent Jared Polis (48-36).

FL-08: Conservative FL website claims Grayson down seven in new poll
Florida's Sunshine State News, from a cursory glance at their frontpage (which includes...wait for it...the slogan "Fair and Balanced"), looks to be a right-wing site. Thus, it might not be much of a surprise that they contracted with a subsidiary of sometimes-GOP pollsters Susquehanna Research to conduct a poll of the 8th district. It will probably be less of a surprise to discover the Republican in the lead. The poll claims that Republican Daniel Webster leads Democratic incumbent Alan Grayson by seven points (43-36), with third-party candidates nabbing 9%.

ME-01/ME-02: Democrats have double-digit leads, in new poll
New polling from local public pollsters Critical Insights shows that Democrats maintain a double-digit advantage over their GOP challengers in both of the state's congressional districts. The closer race is in the 2nd district, where incumbent Michael Michaud's lead over Republican Jason Levesque is narrowing rapidly. What was once a twenty-point lead is down to a dozen points (44-32), according to the poll. Meanwhile, 1st district Democratic incumbent Chellie Pingree is actually looking at a bigger lead than before, opening up a comfortable lead over Republican Dean Scontras (54-26).

NJ-03: Adler leads in tight race, margin depends on the screen
One thing we can say for sure: the new Rutgers poll has Democratic freshman John Adler with a lead over well-heeled GOP challenger Jon Runyan. What is less clear (PDF file): whether that lead is small (and statistically insignificant) or more healthy. Among registered voters, the lead is nine points (40-31). With a tighter likely voter screen, the lead evaporates badly, down to just a pair of points (41-39). Tea Party candidate John DiStefano gets around 6% of the vote either way.

NC-07: Civitas/SUSA poll says add another Dem to the target list
The SUSA buzzkill tour, with an assist from the right-leaning Civitas Institute, heads to the Tar Heel State, where their new survey claims that longtime Democratic Rep. Mike McIntyre actually trails Republican challenger Ilario Pantano. The poll gives Pantano a lead of a single point (46-45), which the pollster claims blows up to a double digit lead among those "most likely to vote."

VA-02: New GOP internal puts Dem incumbent down by seven
On the heels of an NRCC internal which claimed that he was up by five points, the campaign of Republican Scott Rigell unleashed a confirming poll of their own. The poll, from Public Opinion Strategies, claims a lead of seven points for the GOP challenger over Democratic incumbent Glenn Nye (42-35). Conservative Indie candidate Kenny Golden polls at 5%. Along the same lines as the Civitas/SUSA NC-07 poll, this polling memo claims that among the most likely voters, the GOP lead stretches into the double digits (49-35).

VA-05: SUSA still doubling down on the Hurt rout meme
Give SurveyUSA credit for a ton of consistency. Even though Dem internals, and even a few GOP internals, show a considerably closer race, SUSA is still clinging to the notion that Republican Rob Hurt holds a twenty-three point lead (58-35) over Democratic incumbent Tom Perriello. Hard as it might be to believe, this is actually incrementally better than last month's SUSA poll, which had Hurt out front by twenty-six points. Right-wing Indie Jeffrey Clark sits at 4% of the vote, according to SUSA's latest poll.

WI-07: Duffy responds to Lassa with internal showing big lead
Give the campaign of GOP candidate Sean Duffy some credit--their rapid response is pretty sweet. On the heels of a poll from Democrat Julie Lassa showing a pure coin-flip, team Duffy responded with a poll of their own today, a Public Opinion Strategies poll showing the Republican leading Lassa by thirteen points (47-34).

RACE FOR THE HOUSE: NRCC polling dump--day two
The NRCC, the campaign wing for House Republicans, are now into their second day of dumping internal polling. Focusing on the Midwest, the numbers are relentlessly ugly for Democrats in five Dem-held seats:

IL-17: Bobby Schilling (R) 44%, Rep. Phil Hare (D) 43%
IN-08: Larry Bucshon (R) 41%, Trent von Haaften (D) 20%
MI-01: Dan Benishek (R) 40%, Gary McDowell (D) 24%
WI-07: Sean Duffy (R) 52%, Julie Lassa (D) 38%
WI-08: Reid Ribble (R) 57%, Rep. Steve Kagen (D) 39%

(click the link for the ID's of each pollster. The NRCC used different pollsters for each survey)

THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES

AK-Gov: Parnell pulling away, according to CNN poll
Incumbent Republican Sean Parnell is well in control in his re-election bid, according to a new CNN poll of the race. The poll shows Parnell leading Democrat Ethan Berkowitz by nineteen points (57-38) among likely voters, with scarcely any difference when the field is expanded to registered voters. Democrats originally hoped that the well-known Berkowitz (who gave longtime Congressman Don Young one hell of a scare in 2008) would provide a heated challenge to the new incumbent, who took over for Sarah Palin when she abruptly quit in 2009.

CA-Gov: Even among LVs, Brown suddenly rolling on Meg Whitman
In what is the best polling result for the Democratic nominee in months in the Golden State, a new CNN poll has Democrat Jerry Brown with a nine-point lead (52-43) over Republican Meg Whitman among likely voters. Among registered voters, Brown takes his first double digit lead in months (52-39). Other pollsters have confirmed movement to both California Democrats throughout the second half of this month.

CT-Gov: Q poll (predictably) puts GOP within striking distance
Given a very generous sample (better for the GOP than the 1994 exit polls in the state), it is no surprise that the new Quinnipiac poll in Connecticut puts Republican Tom Foley in the best position he has been in all year vis-a-vis Democratic frontrunner Dan Malloy. The new poll puts Malloy up on Foley by three points (45-42). You'll recall that yesterday's Senate poll showed a similar sharp movement.

FL-Gov: CNN sees sharp reversal in state's gubernatorial race
If CNN is correct, there is an entirely new dynamic in the battle to replace Charlie Crist in the Florida statehouse. Their new poll moves Republican Rick Scott into a narrow lead (47-45) over Democrat Alex Sink among likely voters. Most recent polling has had Sink staked to a lead in the mid-single digits. Worth noting: among the wider universe of registered voters, Sink moves back into a lead of a single point.

IL-Gov: Is Quinn back from the dead? CNN poll says "yes"
The most interesting stat from CNN's new wave of polling today may well have been the one least noticed by the media. While California and Alaska got a ton of attention, buried in the weeds was what appears to be a significant comeback for embattled Democratic Governor Pat Quinn. The new CNN poll puts Quinn down by just two points (40-38) against GOP challenger Bill Brady, who has led in the race since March. Interestingly, Quinn's surge comes in spite of a double-digit vote total (14%) for former Democrat Scott Lee Cohen, who is running as an Indie candidate. Among the wider universe of registered voters, the CNN poll has Quinn and Brady tied at 37%.

ME-Gov: Maine Poll shows huge reversal in crowded Gov's race
The Republican coronation of archconservative candidate Paul LePage may well have been a bit premature, according to a new Maine Poll conducted by local pollsters Critical Insights. The pollster, which gave LePage a double-digit lead less than a month ago, now has Democrat Libby Mitchell moving into a narrow one-point lead over the GOP standard bearer (30-29). Independent Eliot Cutler's support also slid back into single digits (9%), meaning there are a load of undecided voters waiting to be persuaded in this final five weeks of the campaign.

MN-Gov: UM poll shows major move to the Democrat in past month
A month after dropping jaws with their assessment that Republican Tom Emmer had moved into a tie with Democrat Mark Dayton, a new poll by the University of Minnesota's Humphrey Institute shows that Dayton has moved into a double digit lead over Emmer. The new poll has Dayton at 38%, Emmer at 27%, and Independent Tom Horner doing very well at 16% of the vote. The pollster's assessment of the surge brings hope to Democrats--they see a significant tightening of the enthusiasm gap in the state.

OH-Gov: Dem poll puts Strickland in unfamiliar position--the lead
If a new poll from Benenson Strategies (and sponsored by something called the Campaign for a Moderate Majority) is to be believed, the electoral resurrection of Ohio Governor Ted Strickland is complete. The poll claims a lead of a single point for Strickland over Republican John Kasich (41-40). While statistically insignificant, it has psychic significance, given that it is the first poll to have Kasich trailing in months.

PA-Gov: F&M poll confirms movement to Onorato, race now toss-up
Another race that is trending Democratic over the last two weeks is the open-seat gubernatorial race in Pennsylvania. The latest to confirm the trend is the Franklin and Marshall poll of the race, which puts Democrat Dan Onorato within a handful of points of GOP frontrunner Tom Corbett. Among registered voters, the lead for Corbett is down to just three points. Better news for Onorato: unlike the Senate race, screening for likely voters and pressing leaners does virtually nothing to pad Corbett's lead. His lead is augmented by only an additional point, with Corbett staked to a 41-37 lead under those parameters.

THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA

Amazingly, with the flood of polling today, virtually none of it comes from the House of Ras. What does come, however, is pretty damned predictable. For example, if every other pollster sees a Strickland surge in Ohio, leave it to the Ras-sies to actually suggest that John Kasich has padded his lead from last month.

CO-Sen: Ken Buck (R) 51%, Sen. Michael Bennet (D) 43%
FL-Sen: Rubio (R) 41%, Crist (I) 30%, Meek (D) 21%
NV-Sen: Sen. Harry Reid (D) 48%, Sharron Angle (R) 47%
OH-Gov: John Kasich (R) 50%, Gov. Ted Strickland (D) 42%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Wed Sep 29, 2010 at 07:46 PM PDT.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

  •  When were the PA-Sen polls done? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, beltane

    Were they done after Sestak's new ads started airing? If so, then Sestak may ultimately prove so many naysayers wrong.

  •  I know...but still. (0+ / 0-)

    so...Meeks? Crist? or Rubio?

    Aperture Science. We do what we must, because we can.

    by lincoln deschain on Wed Sep 29, 2010 at 07:51:16 PM PDT

  •  Onorato and Sestak can both win (5+ / 0-)

    Toomey still can't crack 50% in a single poll.  Sestak is probably polling lower because he's a relative newcomer to PA politics - but much as happened late in the primary against Specter, momentum is with Joe.  He's going to come on strong these last couple of weeks.  He's busted his ass doing retail politics in all 67 counties.  And he knows how to finish strong.

    Support for Teabaggers is soft, at least outside of the GOP's core constituency.  If we hammer them like hell, if we take the fight to them, we're going to win a lot of these races.

    As one of my favorite NFL coaches, Lou Saban, used to say:  "You can get it done.  What's more - you gotta get it done."

  •  (OT) Sarah Silverman on DADT.... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    atdnext

    I'm actually not a huge fan of hers, but this was nice:

    <div style="text-align:left;font-size:x-small;margin-top:0;width:512px;">G.A.Y.S. (Guys Against You Serving) from Thomas Lennon</div>

    I'm gonna go eat a steak. And fuck my wife. And pray to GOD - hatemailapalooza, 052210

    by punditician on Wed Sep 29, 2010 at 07:52:18 PM PDT

  •  And btw, how about my old home state? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, DRo

    Jeez, who knew iCarly and eMeg could both implode like this! Barbara Boxer is really earning this win, and boy oh boy is Jerry Brown fortunate!

    •  iCarly was expected, eMeg, not so much (8+ / 0-)

      Fiorina is a clueless idiot and utterly imcompetent CEO (she was dumped by her own company aftr all) who was outmatched from the get-go against a fighter like Boxer. So her going down in flames is expected.

      But Wittman seemed at least somewhat competent at first. Seldom has $120 million been squandered for so little.

    •  I live here in California... (6+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tmo, askew, esquimaux, atdnext, bythesea, Egalitare

      and this isn't a surprise at all.

      Brown and Boxer are both veterans at campaigning, and they waited until after the summer, when people were back at home and ready to pay attention.

      Boxer was always going to beat Fiorina - the only true danger to her passed when Fiorina won out over Tom Campbell in the primary.

      As for Brown, while this business of the housekeeper may help, Brown doesn't need it.  Whitman was never able to get over 50 despite having the airwaves to herself, and once he got on the air, the needle moved.

      •  I used to live in California... (0+ / 0-)

        So I'm pretty familiar with the lay of the land there. The CA Democratic Party (CDP) is not used to a tough slog, so I was fearing for the worst there. I knew Boxer would have a strong enough campaign to survive on her own, but I was wondering if Brown could hold on against all of eMeg's spending and if everyone downballot could really fend for oneself. But now, it looks like Boxer is taking care of iCarly, Brown is winning despite his own campaign, and the CDP lucked out yet again.

        •  Brown played eMeg brilliantly (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, bythesea

          He sat back and let her squander all that money, oversaturing California to the point where the populace is damn sick of her and making very obvious to all the fact that eMeg is trying to buy the Governor's mansion. Then, when the summer was over and the real campaign begain, he struck and she didn't know what hit her. Perfect political rope-a-dope strategy.

          Now, he didn't count on eMeg having an illegal immigrant scandal waiting to blow up, but he'll take it when it comes.

    •  If they're so opposed to reidstribution of wealth (0+ / 0-)

      Why are these two millionaires redistributing so much of their wealth for nothing in return?

      It's like a $200 million stimulus for the State of California.

      •  be interesting to know where that 200M actually (0+ / 0-)

        actually went -- I assume the ad production was done in CA, so it supported the good people of Hollywood, but surely a hefty chunk went to their Consultants, who are probably in a post-Geographical location...

        in any case, it is iFrakking hilarious to see those two iThrow away so much iCash.

  •  Nice to see some good news. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    atdnext

    What's all this fuss about an escaped goat? Was Ms. O'Donnell going to use it in a sacrifice?

    by jazzmaniac on Wed Sep 29, 2010 at 07:55:17 PM PDT

  •  I wonder if the liberals will come home in IL (4+ / 0-)

    I mean 8% seems high for a green candidate. I wonder if ticked off liberals will come home for Alexi for fear of the republican winning.

    What always seems to happen is that before the race indies poll about 5-10% but when the votes are counted they end up with like 3-4%

    •  That's what happened in NJ last year (0+ / 0-)

      in the Gov race, and what seems to be happening this year in Maine.

    •  If they're smart, they will. If they're (0+ / 0-)

      really dumb, they won't.  

    •  Cohen: 14%? (0+ / 0-)

      Cohen's 14% is more scandalous, IMO. I was in Chicago a couple weeks ago and saw Cohen lawn signs everywhere (not on people's lawns, per se, but dumped all over various sidewalk-terrace areas). He's clearly blitzing the city for name-recognition purposes -- on my way back downstate I saw maybe one or two, as opposed to probably a couple dozen each for Quinn and Brady.

    •  People are fed up with the IL Democratic party. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      delver rootnose, kommie

      I was one of the 10% to vote for Rich Whitney for Governor in 2006, and I can absolutely see 10% of people voting Green in the Senate race.  Note that Whitney got 5% more than any other Green Party candidate, with a 22% showing near Rockford, where he was endorsed by the Register Star.  That percentage is Democrats who were not willing to hold their nose and vote for Blagojevich over Topinka.

      Both major party candidates are flawed, and that's fertile ground for a third party.  The IL Green Party has been working hard for 20 years to get serious ballot consideration, and it's finally starting to pay off.  There is definitely a 3-4% core of IL Green voters.  Anything over  that floor is an indictment of the IL Democratic candidate.

      Someday soon, the Democrats will have to start paying attention.

      -7.75 -4.67

      "Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose."

      There are no Christians in foxholes.

      by Odysseus on Wed Sep 29, 2010 at 10:06:18 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Overall the batch seems to be a net positive. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    atdnext, beltane

    Which is badly needed. Once again, the key LV-RV difference spells Democrats' need to get/remind/motivate their supporters out to the polls.

  •  Those PA and OH polls are awfully hard to believe (0+ / 0-)

    Don't get me wrong, I'd love for them to be right, but the last few weeks of results from virtually everybody have shown the opposite results, and getting worse rather than better. I'll wait to be happy about those until we have some confirmation. Same with ME-GOV.

    They tortured people to get false confessions to fraudulently justify our invading Iraq.

    by Ponder Stibbons on Wed Sep 29, 2010 at 08:00:57 PM PDT

    •  PA-Sen, I can believe... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Odysseus

      The polls have been all over the place...

      Everything from super-wide Toomey leads to dead heats. And since Susquehanna is a GOP pollster, they really have no incentive to inflate Sestak's numbers.

    •  Not hard to believe (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Odysseus, askew, flhiii88

      Ohio's developing a solid trend toward Strickland and has been for a couple of weeks. It's not just one poll. And Strickland is now flooding the airwaves (which he wasn't a few weeks ago) and campaigning his butt off.

      De-orangify Congress: Justin Coussoule for Oh-08 http://www.coussouleforcongress.com/

      by anastasia p on Wed Sep 29, 2010 at 08:28:08 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  What is the story on Fisher? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Odysseus

        Has he just gave up? Portman has too much money so he decided to throw in the towel?

        I can't believe Ohio is going to elect Bush's outsourcer and surplus into deficit budget man.  

        I think Obama needs to go to Ohio for a stop - maybe have an Ohio State university rally or something like he did in Wisconsin.  

        Somebody needs to draw attention to Portman's ridiculous record.  

        Grassroot passion comes and goes - Corporate interest in consistent. Message being that if you want to stay elected then sell-out, it's safer.

        by Jonze on Wed Sep 29, 2010 at 09:02:25 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Mike Castle will NOT do a write in campaign (12+ / 0-)

    Good news for Coons and McCain!!!

    Jim Manley: "Republicans are making love to Wall Street, while the people on Main Street are getting screwed."

    by Drdemocrat on Wed Sep 29, 2010 at 08:02:30 PM PDT

  •  North Carolina (0+ / 0-)

    What a black cloud that one is ... frustrating as Burr has had very little popular support, so purely an anti-Obama thing (in a state he won no less!).

    •  Dems put in no money... (0+ / 0-)

      Either because Burr is such a non-entity, or because Cunningham was their candidate and Marshall won, sort of telling the activist supporters - you wanted her so bad, you fund her.  

      Grassroot passion comes and goes - Corporate interest in consistent. Message being that if you want to stay elected then sell-out, it's safer.

      by Jonze on Wed Sep 29, 2010 at 08:10:57 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  If he were a "non entity" (0+ / 0-)

        all the more reason to run hard against him, no?

        •  Just my feeling on this... (0+ / 0-)

          But Burr has money, and Dems are facing a lot of nutters they need to try and keep out.  Anybody sat this election will serve in the Senate the rest of Obama's presidency.  They don't want the Toomey's, Paul's, Angle's, Blunts who would be more dangerous in the Senate than a guy like Burr who has literally done nothing since being in the Senate.  

          Similarly Dems seem to be happy to let GOP moderates win - Castle, Hoeven, Murkowski, and even Kirk if it wasn't Obama's old seat.  They'd probably be elated if Crist won in Florida as well.  

          Grassroot passion comes and goes - Corporate interest in consistent. Message being that if you want to stay elected then sell-out, it's safer.

          by Jonze on Wed Sep 29, 2010 at 08:17:09 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  no one's happy to have R moderates win--- (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            flhiii88

            and both Barack and Michelle are going to be in Illinois campaigning for Alexi----no one would be "happy" with Liar Kirk.

            •  Question about Kirk (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              dotster

              If he, as I expect, loses on Election Day, will he pretend he won and demand to be sworn in as Senator? He's already become Walter Mitty, it'd just be taken this fantasy world he's concocted for himself to the next step.

            •  Illinois is different because it's Obama's seat.. (0+ / 0-)

              And it will be a trophy for the GOP if Kirk wins it.  

              However the Dems are not in Ak(Murkowski), NH(Ayotte), Ct(McMahon), ND(Hoeven), weren't in De(Castle).

              They're in Nv(Angle), Co(Buck), Pa(Toomey), Mo(Blunt), Ky(Paul).

              Grassroot passion comes and goes - Corporate interest in consistent. Message being that if you want to stay elected then sell-out, it's safer.

              by Jonze on Wed Sep 29, 2010 at 08:57:51 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  Burr has been running ads here (0+ / 0-)

      I have not seen any ads by elaine marshall. She is a little short on cash. The DSCC or DCCC needs to get involved and Big Dog needs to  come stomp here because Burr is a terrible senator for north carolina.

    •  the only reason (0+ / 0-)

      Burr has consolidated his lead is because he is the only one on the air! I have not seen an Elaine Marshall ad yet. Just Burr's rehash of the two old guys on the porch ad.

  •  Tom Perillo VA-05 (0+ / 0-)

    needs to move to VA-10 and position himself to take away from Frank Wolf.

    tom would do really well in the 10th.  To bad. he is a great great congressman.

    Nye - oh well!

    Takin it to the streets....Doobie Brothers

    by totallynext on Wed Sep 29, 2010 at 08:06:24 PM PDT

    •  If he loses, I hope the Administration... (0+ / 0-)

      would have a spot for him.  Maybe the State Department...

      Grassroot passion comes and goes - Corporate interest in consistent. Message being that if you want to stay elected then sell-out, it's safer.

      by Jonze on Wed Sep 29, 2010 at 08:11:29 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  If Murkowski wins (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, kosta, atdnext, joy sinha, keetz4

    it will be interesting to see how McConnell will be able to juggle the teabaggers' (and DeMint's) wrath with the reality that she will caucus with the Republicans.

    •  She'd likely become their version of Lieberman... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      beltane

      I can definitely see it happening if she somehow pulls it off.

    •  Well if GOP fails to take both house and senate (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      atdnext, Corneliusmingus, Egalitare

      Mitch will be ousted by DeMint.

      "The best lack all conviction, while the worst/Are full of passionate intensity."---William Butler Yeats.

      by joy sinha on Wed Sep 29, 2010 at 08:10:35 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  if she wins (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      beltane

      the GOPers will welcome her with open arms and heartfelt relief.

    •  If Murkowski wins .... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Georgia Liberal, keetz4

      Sarah Palin will stomp her feet and beat her hands and dissolve into a little puddle of grease!

      De-orangify Congress: Justin Coussoule for Oh-08 http://www.coussouleforcongress.com/

      by anastasia p on Wed Sep 29, 2010 at 08:28:53 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Should we say, "When Murkowski wins"? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Jonze

      After Miller's win in the primary, we can infer that a number of people working for oil companies got their ears boxed for not planning ahead for the contingency of a low turnout primary dominated by Tea Partiers. In losing Murkowsko, they losing an important seat on the Senate energy and resources committee. Moreover, beyond Miller's lack of seniority, he has no genetic ties to oil and gas, or any minerals extraction industry. Quel dommage!

      So the locals such as Conoco Phillips, Andarko, BP (AK's seventh largest private employer), Marathon, Eni, Tesoro, Halliburton are now spending, and spending big, to retain the seat. Moreover, Murkowski has national and even international support from the oil and gas industry as she has often taken the lead, as we all saw in the BP Macondo spill, in doing the bidding of Big Oil and the oil lobby.

      So they will spend. After all it's chump change for the services she provides.

      •  GOP let her keep her Energy and Natural Recources (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        kosta

        ranking member gig for a reason.  

        Grassroot passion comes and goes - Corporate interest in consistent. Message being that if you want to stay elected then sell-out, it's safer.

        by Jonze on Wed Sep 29, 2010 at 09:04:04 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  evidence of this Big Oil spending? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        kosta

        it's totally plausible, I'd just like to see some documentation.  It would also be very interesting to see this industry try to win it for Lisa.  I don't think you can just do it by buying ads, you need major voter education/motivation to ensure a write-in win like this.

        •  If she would just stop with the reveiling already (0+ / 0-)

          I'll dig a bit on this to get something hard. Certainly, no one doubts her pro-carbon credentials.

          In the meantime there is this on Murkowski's own website:

          Campaign Reveils New Ads
          Responds to California Tea Party Express threats and tests Alaskans spelling.

        •  Hitting up Big Oil and kicking Joe (0+ / 0-)

          Murkowski will need to collect funds from many sources — including from Washington lobbyists — in order to continue her race.

          Karen Knutson, Murkowski’s chief of staff, emailed scores of top lobbyists in town and employees at some of the largest oil companies – including Chevron, Conoco Phillips and Marathon Oil – to ask them to join the senator on a conference call Saturday, according to a copy of the e-mail and a recipient list obtained by Politico.

          Miller fails to file and Miller's personal federal subsidies.

          •  this is great, thanks -- (0+ / 0-)

            I'll be interested to see how that conference call goes.  Will the Oil folks be getting any counter signals from the GOP leadership, or have they decided that Miller isn't worth fighting for?  But Miller is so closely identified with Sarah.

            the civil war is just so on...

    •  Will she caucus with them? After they've treated (0+ / 0-)

      ...her like dirt? I can see her sitting on the sidelines, enjoying being courted by both sides....

      Freedom has two enemies: Those who want to control everyone around them...and those who feel no need to control themselves.

      by Sirenus on Thu Sep 30, 2010 at 06:40:33 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think she's a lock to caucus with GOP... (0+ / 0-)

        All this "treating her like dirt" is doing with they have to not to piss off teabaggers across the country.  They threw her a HUGE bone when they allowed her to keep the Energy and Natural Resources gig.  

        Grassroot passion comes and goes - Corporate interest in consistent. Message being that if you want to stay elected then sell-out, it's safer.

        by Jonze on Thu Sep 30, 2010 at 06:53:05 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  I sure hope that Grayson can hang in there (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DRo

    wonder what's wrong with the voters in his district that he's not up by 20 ?

    big badda boom : GRB 080913

    by squarewheel on Wed Sep 29, 2010 at 08:08:04 PM PDT

  •  Can you feel the love for Democrats (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Georgia Liberal

    A Senate majority more or less unchanged with no filibuster to worry about, a more united Democratic caucus in the House, and a recharged president all working towards a progressive agenda that will push our nation and its people to the left.

    That's what 2011 is looking like.

  •  support Scott McAdams (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, kosta, Egalitare, keetz4

    it seems many are either ignoring McAdams or giving him short shrift as if progressives should support Murkowski. No way! We need to do all we can to defeat both of the GOP wingnuts and work hard to give McAdams a fighting chance. He can win this race and I hope progressives remember what a total asshat Murkowski was in the senate.

    •  No new polling there.... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DRo

      There was one a couple of days ago. You can check Monday's Wrap for it. It was a Blum and Welprin poll for the Dallas Morning News: Perry 46, White 39.

      "You share your young with the wolves of the nation...
      Theres nothing left til you pray for salvation"
      Black Rebel Motorcycle Club "American X"

      by Steve Singiser on Wed Sep 29, 2010 at 08:21:07 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  So, there has to be polling to diacuss? (0+ / 0-)

        How about the Democratic Governor's Association paying for anti-Perry ads in Dallas (and elsewhere), something they haeve NEVER done before in Texas?

        http://www.burntorangereport.com/...

        I love this:

        An upset in Texas could provide an improbable sweep of the big Sunbelt states, although defeating Perry is seen as the most difficult of the three. Democratic officials believe it is worth an additional investment in White's candidacy to see how vulnerable the incumbent may be.

        I must say, DKos acts as if there is no Texas election sometimes.  We are only the second-most populous state, a breeding ground for nutcases we should guard against (though the rest of the country has its share), we will gain FOUR Congressional seats to be decided by the next Texas Legislature, and have a Governor who has had TEN YEARS to build a platform from which to launch to bigger things and who stands to get FOUR MORE including a large say-so in the re-districting, and NO ONE SEEMS TO GIVE A FLIP!  (oh, dear, was I SHOUTING again?)

        So, will no one besides Rasmussen poll Texas?  Does no one care?  And then some guy named James Carville sends me an e-mail asking me to donate to the DSCCC.  I get a little irritated when I recall the support that was NOT forthcoming to Barbara Ann Radnofsky in 2006 to beat Kay Bailey "perjury is such a trivial thing" Hutchison.  Sen. Harry Reid came to San Antonio acouple of weeks ago to raise money for his OWN senatorial campaign in Nevada, but where's the help for Texas?

        Texas gets treated like an ATM, and we're tired of it.

        We'llk fix it, sooner or a little later, with or without others' help.  If you can't help, just get out of the way.

        /*rant*

        Torture is Wrong! We live near W so you don't have to. Send love.

        by tom 47 on Thu Sep 30, 2010 at 08:27:26 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Oh, I almost forgot: (0+ / 0-)

          there are 32 Congressional districts in Texas, and Dem. candidates contesting 25 of those, and not a single word here.  And one of those is Pete "Taliban" Sessions, TX-32, who is the GOP Congressional Campaign Committee CHAIR!  Where do you think Pete is raising and spending money?!?!? IN YOUR STATE, TRYING TO DEFEAT YOUR DEMOCRATIC CONGRESSMEMBERS!  We should be targeting Pete to send him on his way, after NINE TERMS!  His opponent is Grier Raggio: http://www.raggioforcongress.com  Help is appreciated.

          NO OTHER STATE will be changing as many congressional seats, gain OR lose, as will Texas.  But it's wall-to-wall about Florida, and hand-wringing about states losing one or two seats, and focus on the Senate races, and there's a BIG FAT DEAl going on here in the Lone Star State and no coverage here.  None.  Zip.  Nada.  Niente.  Nichts.

          May I suggest:
          Burnt Orange Report http://www.burntorangereport.com
          Texas Kaos http://www.texaskaos.com/

          Torture is Wrong! We live near W so you don't have to. Send love.

          by tom 47 on Thu Sep 30, 2010 at 08:41:37 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Fiorina's latest ad has killed her (4+ / 0-)

    She's going after Boxer's "I earned this title of Senator" statement, looking straight into the camera with the warmth and charm of Leona Helmsley.  I saw that ad and wondered why no one on her staff had the guts to tell her she looked petty and mean.

    "So if you don't have any teeth, so what? ... Isn't that why they make applesauce?" -- GOP leader Rush Limbaugh

    by Seneca Doane on Wed Sep 29, 2010 at 08:18:48 PM PDT

  •  VA-02 (0+ / 0-)

    I think this is the first time I've seen The Wrap even mention my district.

    I don't know how accurate that poll is, but I am just going to say that however badly Nye does this time it will be in part because he's been a shitty, shitty Democrat.

    VA-02 is running:

    Scott Rigell (Crazy Republican)
    Kenny Golden (Republican)
    Glenn Nye (Republican Lite)

    Sigh.

    Still not voting for Nye. I really don't care about the outcome of this race anymore.

    •  I don't live there... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Egalitare, KingofSpades

      ...but if I felt the way you do, I'd still vote for Nye, because I so don't want to see the R's take over the House.  Unfortunately for me, my district is so red that even though the Dem candidate is the best the dems (John Flerlage, CO-06) have ever put up here, he won't win.  Though, I go up to CO-07 to help Congressman Perlmutter, who I think is The Man!!!

      If you listen to fools, the Mob Rules

      by CO Democrat on Wed Sep 29, 2010 at 09:39:17 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I lived in Va Beach for 8 years... (0+ / 0-)

      ...and in Newport News 30 years previous. Nye has been a disappointment, but it's been predictable. The Democratic "insiders" in that district have never grown past the Pickett years, and only defeat is going to allow fresh blood to take advantage of the demographic strength an actual classic Southern Populist could have now and most certainly will have in future years. Too bad, because Nye is bright enough and (let's admit it because it does matter) camera-friendly enough to have been that guy now.

      Nye could still win, though my relatives indicate he's not beating the bushes for votes in "fertile territory": he's basically trying to win voters Rigell is never going to lose. But even if he wins, Rigell is a very nasty public scandal waiting to happen (I predict in time for the 2016 cycle), and opportunity will come to take that seat for someone who won't view the Pickett Doctrine as unalterable.

      "Power concedes nothing without a demand. It never did and it never will." -- Frederick Douglass

      by Egalitare on Thu Sep 30, 2010 at 03:01:54 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  House forecasts? (0+ / 0-)

    Anyone? Nate is still predicting ~211 democratic seats. I wonder if these additional polls will move that estimate one way or another.

    I've seen several polls that tossup races are looking more safely D, but there are also a few polls in there where leaning D districts are becoming tossups.

  •  Pretty depressing (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    We have to fight in our stronghold states?

    Bleh!

  •  Overall moving in the right direction (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Corneliusmingus, keetz4

    Hopefully Feingold can turn it around also!

    •  We've been lucky that so many Repugs can't keep.. (0+ / 0-)

      ...their mouths shut.

      It's not that we're doing such a great job. It's that they're shooting themselves in the foot...and then in the other foot.

      Freedom has two enemies: Those who want to control everyone around them...and those who feel no need to control themselves.

      by Sirenus on Thu Sep 30, 2010 at 06:37:40 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  AZ-5 was one of the 50 (0+ / 0-)

    the RCCC was counting on for their big @#$% wave, no?

    The adjective that applies to Christine O'Donnell is not "DiVinyl".

    by AZphilosopher on Wed Sep 29, 2010 at 10:24:21 PM PDT

  •  AK-Sen (0+ / 0-)

    To poll Murkowski right, they'd have to offer the names that will be on the ballot without mentioning her name.  Might be fair to ask if they'd like to write someone in, but no more than that.

    exmearden: Grab every minute of joy you can. 8/30/09

    by Land of Enchantment on Wed Sep 29, 2010 at 10:27:09 PM PDT

  •  Mike McIntyre D-NC would be no great loss (0+ / 0-)

    ...he's not only campaigning just like a Republican would against the Obama Administration and the Democratic leadership, he actually voted against key Democratic legislation and is prominently promoting that fact in his campaign ads, as well as promoting the sort of cut taxes, cut spending rhetoric that's indistinguishable from GOP candidates.  AND - he's ardently anti-choice to boot.

    As much as I'd like the Dems to minimize loss of Congressional seats in this unfavorable election cycle, Mike McIntyre's defeat would actually represent culling of some diseased wood from the Democratic tree, and better open the possibilities for a more enlightened replacement to win in 2012 in a likely more favorable election climate for the Dems.  What a jackass this guy is, and I'm ashamed to say he's from my old hometown.

  •  I'm glad to hear Maine likes Libby Mitchell (0+ / 0-)

    but in midcoast Maine you can drive inland as far as Augusta and see not a single Libby Mitchell campaign or yard sign.

    I think we should have learned with Scott Brown that its important to campaign harder if you want to win, you can't do it all with phone banking and house parties, somebody needs to drive the length of Route 17 talking to property owners and getting at least a few Dems to show the flag.

    Live Free or Die --- Investigate, Incarcerate

    by rktect on Thu Sep 30, 2010 at 02:11:15 AM PDT

  •  I predict that the next Senator from Alaska will (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    akmk

    have a name that starts with M

    We all differ in ways that matter. But we're all the same in the ways that matter most.

    by plf515 on Thu Sep 30, 2010 at 06:00:24 AM PDT

    •  Smarty pants! (0+ / 0-)

      Another reason why the Alaska race is such a toss-up, folks are getting the candidates names mixed up all the time.

      Here's some help:

      Joe Miller--the pirate

      Murky Murkowski--votes straight Republican partisan politics

      Scott McAdams--big man, big heart, savvy politician, will represent Alaska and the U.S. well in the Senate for the next six years.  Great ally for Franken and Grayson.

      http://scottmcadams.org

      •  The polling results back up my supposition (0+ / 0-)

        Looking at poll results, Murkowski steals away many more votes from McAdams than she does from Miller.

        In one poll I saw, Miller goes from 50% of the vote to 44% with Murkowski in the race, and McAdams goes from 42% without her in the race all the way down to 25%! Another poll drops Miller from 43% to 36% and McAdams from 28% to 14%.

        Murkowski in the race steals much more from McAdams than she does from Miller. This is what I wrote last week that you vehemently disagreed with.

  •  Oh my! (0+ / 0-)

    I REALLY hope to (relatively) kick some ass this cycle.  

    I SO want to see the fallout on the Republican/Tea Baggers.  The knives will come out like never before!  It will mean months of entertainment.

  •  you are making a mistake... (0+ / 0-)

    ...in suggesting or assuming a LeAlen Jones supporter would be voting for Alexi, as opposed to not voting at all, if Jones was not in the race.

    We Glory in war, in the shedding of human blood. What fools we are.

    by delver rootnose on Thu Sep 30, 2010 at 12:39:26 PM PDT

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site