As we all heard last Friday, an initial
revision for the month of November contained in the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS)
December 2009 Employment Situation Report revised the previous month's (November's) 11,000-job loss into a 4,000 -job gain. Apparently, another BLS' jobs report, yesterday's
November 2009 Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (a/k/a "JOLTS" Summary), notes a net 164,000-job
loss for that month, and consequently throws the first November revision into doubt.
As noted by Calculated Risk on Tuesday: "BLS: Near Record Low Job Openings in November."
According to the JOLTS report, there were 4.176 million hires in November, and 4.340 million separations, or 164 thousand net jobs lost. The comparable CES report showed a gain of 4 thousand jobs in November (after revisions).
Openings near a series low can't be a positive sign. Separations have declined sharply, but hiring has not picked up. This also suggests that eventually (possibly when the March 2010 benchmark revision is announced in Feb 2011), the November net change in employment will be revised down.
Bold type is diarist's emphasis.
CHART: JOLTS, NOVEMBER 2009
From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary for November 2009:
There were 2.4 million job openings on the last business day of November 2009, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The job openings rate was little changed over the month at 1.8 percent. The openings rate has held relatively steady since March 2009. The hires rate (3.2 percent) and the separations rate (3.3 percent) were essentially unchanged in November.
More from Calculated Risk:
Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. Remember the CES (Current Employment Statistics, payroll survey) is for positions, the CPS (Current Population Survey, commonly called the household survey) is for people. See Jobs and the Unemployment Rate for a comparison of the two surveys.
While I personally think we'll see a short-term improvement in the job reports around April (give or take a month), to coincide with Census Department temporary hiring, this potential second revision of the November numbers posted last week is not good news. More than likely, IMHO, it will extend the recession's string of monthly job losses throughout the balance of the season.