Many people seem shocked that Martha Coakley is losing to Scott Brown in the polls in the Massachusetts Senate race. After all, it's Massachusetts, one of the most liberal states in the country.... How could the Democrat possibly lose?
I don't find it particularly shocking. In fact, it seems pretty obvious to me why Coakley is down in the polls and Brown is leading the race and will probably eke out a victory despite the liberal nature of the state in which he's running. Follow me below the fold for three reasons why Coakley could really lose.
1. Everyone knows that this race will determine the passage or defeat of the health insurance reform bill. Ironically, this is dragging Coakley down, because many progressives view the Senate bill as a sellout to the corporate insurance industry. And Massachusetts, being as liberal as it is, is probably full of such hard-core progressives who oppose a mandate to buy private insurance without a public option. There's a reason why Brown wins 20% of the Democratic vote while Coakley only wins 1% of the Republican vote according to the latest ARG poll. It's because, like virtually all Republicans, lots of Democrats don't want the current health insurance reform proposal to pass and be signed into law.
2. Martha Coakley is an archetypal "Standard Establishment Democrat" in a time when people want strong and principled leaders. Democrats need to face a harsh reality: Americans today care much more about whether a politician will fight for what they believe in -- almost regardless of what it is -- and profoundly dislike politicians who are just in it for the career advancement and the power but don't really believe in anything. A recent poll shows that a majority of Americans want politicians to "make a stronger effort to stand up for principle, even if that risks increasing conflict with members of the opposing politican party." Coakley is such a typical establishment politician, almost the epitome of the Democrat whose only principles are to "get elected" and "get things done," and is bereft of ideological passion and willingness to stand for either progressive or conservative principles. The reason there is no enthusiasm for Coakley is that she is boring and represents the politics of the powerful and well connected rather than populist fervor. Teabaggers like Brown are getting a lot of support because they actually believe in something, fight hard for it, and try to appear populist (even if they really aren't).
3. Coakley thought this would be an automatic win. Voters don't like being taken for granted. Many Democrats are getting tired of the game that wishy-washy moderate establishment Democrats play with us, the game of "We know you would never vote for the Republican, so I can be as dull, corporate, passionless, and inept as I want and you can't do anything about it; you'll vote for me anyway, ha ha ha." This may be the election where a lot of Democrats finally just say, "No, actually we will vote for the Republican because we don't want crappy Democrats anymore who treat us as though we owe them the seat just for showing up and having a D next to their name on the ballot."
The thing that amazes me is that Coakley actually was able to win the primary over a true progressive like Mike Capuano. Well informed people in Massachusetts were warning about Coakley all along, such as this diarist back in September. But Massachusetts Dems shot themselves in the foot and picked a terrible candidate who is not particularly progressive, strong on the issues, passionate, or populist and appealing to independents. They picked a bland, well-funded establishment candidate who can't even come close to filling the shoes of Ted Kennedy -- and in return, they may get a teabagger representing their state in the U.S. Senate.
Remember Dems: Fighters win. It doesn't so much matter what they fight for. Coakley doesn't have strong beliefs, doesn't fight for anything, and doesn't campaign hard. That tends to mean a loss, because that's not the kind of people that most people want for a leader. If Coakley loses as the polls are now showing, let it be a lesson to us!