It is pretty much a given that a political party cannot win an election unless its base turns out. That doesn't mean if the base turns out it will win, but if the base doesn't, the party is almost sure to go down to defeat. And this year, that is probably even more true. We know the Republican base (read Tea Party) is energized this year. The Democratic base is a little more iffy.
This diary is an attempt on my part to examine the two bases, what drives them, what motivates them, and what doesn't. Then I will take a little time to see what can happen between now and election day to make a difference.
Republican Base: Actually, to be totally correct, the Republican Party has two bases and needs both to win. The first is the coporate, high-income elite. This is the group that does the heavy financial lifting, from funding ads, financing get out the vote efforts, and promoting propaganda via the Tea Party and things such as Fox News. We all know how the Republican Party feels about this base and how they have rewarded this group through legislation and lax regulations when they have been in power. But this isn't the base that actually votes in huge numbers so they will receive no more attention from me at this time.
However, the other base is the strongly conservative, mostly white, mostly rural population who tend to vote based upon social values. They are anti-gay, anti-abortion, anti-gun control, etc. They tend to be middle or lower middle class and have never really reaped any economic benefits from voting Republican. We all have heard about the book "What's the Matter with Kansas" which chronicles how these people tend to vote against their own self-interest. My response is that, in their minds, they don't. This is where what Obama said about clinging to guns and religion comes into play.
These are people who, as I said, are very conservative from a social value perspective. In 2004 they turned out in droves because of the various anti-same sex marriage referendi that were on various ballots. These are the people that turn out to vote on abortion restricting referendi. For them, these issues trump everything. Plus, these are the people who for the last 30 years have been taught to believe that Democrats/Liberals/Progressives are the tool of Satan. And being a highly fundamentalist religion based group, that idea actually resonates wiht them.
Yet at the same time, the Republican Party has done nothing for them in terms of their values. There is no Constitutional Amendment to ban same sex marriage. Abortion rights have not been curtailed. About the only token that was tossed their way was Bush's ban on Federal funding for embryonic stem cell research. But election after election they turn out despite being betrayed by their party. Why?
To answer that it is important to understand their basic outlook on humankind. Their religious viewpoint is that mankind is basically flawed and given the opportunity will do bad things. Redemption on earth is not going to happen. Improvement on earth is not going to happen. This mind set makes them extremely vulnerable to the methods that the Republican Party uses to mobilize them. And behind these methods is one basic theme: FEAR. This can be fear of the gays, fear of the Muslims, fear of socialism, etc. Whatever they can be afraid of is embodied by the Democrats, according to the Republican elite. The basic message is vote for us and we can protect you from all these things, which represent the basest tendencies of humankind.
The deficit bogeyman is actually more of the same. It is represented as taking the future away from their children and using this to redistribute wealth, the very epitome of socialism. It doesn't matter that most of them have no wealth to be taken away, or that, in reality the Democrats are really on their side. It is the fear of the bogeyman that drives them. And, for the Republicans, the great thing is that they don't even have to produce any facts to drive these voters, because for thirty years the message has been the same and it is now taken for granted.
The point on the Republican base is that it is going to be there, no matter what, because, since their values are not based upon facts, you can't use facts to change them. We are not going to win over the base, nor are we likely to dissuade them from voting. So in order to win we have to work with the...
Democratic Base: This base is composed of two types of people. There are those who, like my mother-in-law, have always voted the Democratic ticket and always will. This is an aging group, but it is still there. The key is just to make sure these people get to the polls or, more importantly, vote via absentee ballot. The other base is the group that is strongly liberal/progressive and is highly aware of the issues. Most of the people here would qualify as part of that base. This base is composed, generally of highly idealist people who have strong aspirations for what they want to see happen. They were probably never more prevalent than during the 2008 Presidential election. And Obama understood this group and used a message that strongly resonates with these voters: HOPE.
This is because this group of people have a different view of humankind than the Republican base. They view humans as able to improve as a whole. They also view society as being a "we help each other" society, not a strongly indivdualistic society. Even though it tends, as a group, not to be as religious, the religiosity of those that are is different. The Republican base believes strongly in individual salvation. The Democratic religious base believes strongly in community "salvation."
The key for this base, however, is that, because they have high ideals and views of what the world can be, if they see their party as not striving to meet those ideals it is easy for them to lose hope and when hope is gone, they become unmotivated and don't show up at the polls. This election cycle this is painfully obvious, specially at Daily Kos where people keep asking "Why should I even care to vote?"
See, the Republican base actually expects its desires to be squashed, because that is the way life is. The Democratic base expects its desires to be met in full, because that is the way life could be. So how do we motivate the Democratic base to come out this year?
Well from a hope perspective, it is important to realize that what we have seen is just a beginning. Disappointment does not need to lead to disillusionment. Personally, I wish we had gotten a public option for example. But I also realize that what we did get was better than nothing (some may disagree.) And that what we did get can serve as a baseline from which to move forward. I also realize that a lot of things have been passed which haven't gotten a lot of play, so I can hope for even greater things to come.
But perhaps we do need to take a page from the Republican playbook and become a little afraid of what happens if the Republicans take over. Keep in mind, that a Republican victory will give them the sense that going to the extreme right is what the voters want them to do. It will block even more progressive legislation and keep Obama's appointments bottled up. Unlike with the Republican base which responds to fear of something that doesn't exist, we know very well what the current Republcian Party stands for and against and knowing that I have every reason to vote for every Democrat out there.
In general, the Republican base has been told, and has been agreeable, to vote AGAINST Democrats because of what would happen if the Democrats win. I try to vote for Democrats because of what I think they can do, but I am more than willing to vote against Republcians because I know what they will do. And, if that is what it takes to motivate the base, then that is the message that needs to go out there. It is interesting that in Obama's latest speeches he has actually used both Hope and Fear as motivators. I think it could work.