The first October edition of the Wrap is a fairly light one, probably the last Wrap of the cycle for which that can be said. Only 18 polls greet us on the weekend, meaning plenty of time for college football for regular Wrap readers (or, for the truly addicted, scouring the Sunday editions of the papers for new polling).
There are still some headlines here. One of the most underpolled races in the nation gets a shocker of a new poll, and it is a rare piece of bad news for the GOP. Meanwhile, we get another public pollster with an enormous gap between registered voters and likely voters. Even more novel: we get a huge gap between what a poll projects for November and how people have actually voted in early voting.
All this (and more!) in the weekend edition of the Wrap...
THE U.S. SENATE
CO-Sen: Bennet's status depends heavily on who votes
It is pretty rare to see a swing between registered voter and likely voter screens as vast as this one. According to a new McClatchy poll conducted by Marist College, embattled Democratic incumbent Michael Bennet actually leads Republican Ken Buck by a single point (41-40). But when the likely voter screen gets dropped, it creates a nine-point swing in the results. Among LVs, the pollster claims an eight point lead (50-42) for Buck.
IL-Sen: Giannoulias up two in latest Trib poll in Land of Lincoln
A new Chicago Tribune poll out of Illinois indicates that the race is still very close, with a number of voters still on the fence. The poll gives Democrat Alexi Giannoulias a two-point lead over Republican Mark Kirk (38-36). Eight percent of the vote is leaning towards one of the third party options in the race, while nearly one-in-five voters remain undecided. A key problem for Kirk: his favorabilities have taken a huge hit in the past several weeks. What was a 25/19 favorability spread last month is now at a net negative at 23/32. Giannoulias, whose favorabilities had also been underwater, is now dead even at 31/31.
PA-Sen: McClatchy sees RV/LV chasm in Toomey-Sestak race
Depending on whether you prefer your polling among registered voters or likely voters, the race between Republican Patrick Toomey and Democrat Joe Sestak is either a toss-up, or a race leaning precipitously to the GOP. Among registered voters, the margin in the race is two points. Among likely voters, however, that margin blows up to nine points (51-42).
SC-Sen: DeMint cruising to re-election, according to new poll
A new poll by local pollsters Crantford Research might have good news for the Dems on the gubernatorial front (more on this later), but that good news simply does not extend to the state's U.S. Senate race. Republican Jim DeMint, arguably the most right-wing member of the chamber, is blasting Democrat Alvin Greene by thirty-three points (56-23). The poll did not test Green Party candidate Tom Clements, who might get a significant share of the vote in November.
WI-Sen: Another poll puts Johnson ahead of Feingold in key battle
McClatchy/Marist becomes the latest pollster to show clear separation between Republican challenger Ron Johnson and Democratic incumbent Russ Feingold. As with their other polling, however, McClatchy/Marist sees another sizeable RV/LV gap. Among likely voters, the margin is pretty wide (52-45 Johnson), and there are barely any undecided voters. Among registered voters, however, the margin is tighter and more voters are up for grabs (45-43 Johnson). Curiously, although the pollster looked at the gubernatorial races in Colorado and Pennsylvania (more on these in a bit), they failed to poll the tightening gubernatorial race in Wisconsin.
THE U.S. HOUSE
DE-AL: Republican internal claims Castle's seat is a race
A new campaign internal poll out of Delaware might need a grain of salt, as it reports a result that has been shared by no other polling in the race. The poll, from Wilson Strategies for Republican nominee Glen Urquhart, claims that Democrat John Carney has a lead of just three points (45-42) over Urquhart. Most public polling on the race has seen Carney leading the GOP nominee by double digits.
OH-01: SUSA says that Chabot trails now, but should win in November
Here is an interesting dichotomy that is not often seen: a new SurveyUSA poll out of Southern Ohio follows past SUSA polling in forecasting a double-digit lead for Republican Steve Chabot as he seeks to reclaim his seat in Congress from freshman Democrat Steve Driehaus. The margin is actually incrementally smaller than past polls, but remains in double digits (53-41). However, among the 6% of the sample that has already cast a ballot (Ohio is one of many states that has early voting), it is the Democrat who holds the edge (53-45).
WA-08: Dem challenger tightens swing seat noticeably, according to SUSA
A new SurveyUSA poll in suburban Seattle shows that Dave Reichert might not be a lock in the swing 8th district, after all. After earlier polls showed a solid double-digit lead for the GOP incumbent, the latest SUSA poll shows that the lead for Reichert over Democrat Suzan DelBene has been whittled down to just seven points (52-45). Reichert has always had to sweat in this seat that often votes Democrat at the presidential level, but the open primary in August made it appear as if he might breathe easier this cycle. This poll, from a firm that has been pretty pessimistic on Dem prospects in 2010, would seem to indicate otherwise.
WV-03: Take this one off the target lists? Dem up 25 in internal poll
There was much early cycle hype that the GOP was gunning for longtime Democratic Rep. Nick Rahall in this somewhat conservative Democratic seat in southern West Virginia. Both public and partisan polling has shown this race, against GOP challenger Spike Maynard, to be pretty one-sided. The latest data point to that effect is a new Anzalone Liszt poll, taken for the incumbent, that shows him leading Maynard by a gaudy 25-point margin (59-34).
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
CO-Gov: Hickenlooper still marching to a lopsided win
Even with the pessimistic likely voter screen being employed by McClatchy/Marist, Democrats seem to have little reason to worry in the Colorado gubernatorial race. John Hickenlooper still leads the race by double digits, nabbing 48% of the vote to maintain the advantage. As other pollsters have also noted, right-wing Indie candidate Tom Tancredo has moved clearly into second place (29%), with Republican Dan Maes running a relatively distant third (19%).
IL-Gov: First poll in months gives Dem incumbent a lead over Brady
At the close of this month, there seemed to be clear momentum building for Democratic incumbent Pat Quinn in the Land of Lincoln. The latest Chicago Tribune poll in the state appears to be confirmation, as it is the first poll since the early Spring to show the Democrat with a lead over Republican challenger Bill Brady. The lead, of course, is a tenuous one, with Quinn up on Brady by a statistically insignificant point (39-38). In a sign that voters are not enamored with their options, 9% of them are opting for one of the other candidates in the field.
PA-Gov: McClatchy/Marist denies Onorato surge, has Corbett up big
Most recent polling has shown a clear tightening in the open-seat battle between Republican Tom Corbett and Democrat Dan Onorato. Consider this, then, to be counter-argument. The McClatchy/Marist series of polls referenced earlier also looked at the gubernatorial race in the Keystone State. Among likely voters, they have this as a double-digit lead (53-41) for the GOP nominee over Onorato.
SC-Gov: Is Nikki Haley losing her lead? Local pollster says "yes"
Keep an eye on this one: a new poll from local pollsters Crantford Research shows that the battle to replace GOP incumbent Mark Sanford is suddenly a toss-up. The pollster puts Republican frontrunner Nikki Haley at 45% of the vote, while Democrat Vincent Sheheen lies just four points back at 41%. Movement in this race is hard to confirm, however, since only Rasmussen has released data in this race, dating back to late May.
THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA
Speaking of the House of Ras, they are remaining in full Ras mode, with a smattering of late week polling which will perpetuate the "GOP surge" meme for anyone interested in flogging that particular nugget of conventional wisdom. They also counter the apparent recent movement towards Dan Onorato in Pennsylvania by giving Republican Tom Corbett his best numbers in their data to-date.
FL-Gov: Rick Scott (R) 46%, Alex Sink (D) 41%
NM-Gov: Susana Martinez (R) 51%, Diane Denish (D) 41%
PA-Gov: Tom Corbett (R) 53%, Dan Onorato (D) 41%
PA-Sen: Patrick Toomey (R) 49%, Joe Sestak (D) 40%
WI-Gov: Scott Walker (R) 50%, Tom Barrett (D) 44%