So I'm a new New Yorker and proud, for the first time in my life, to live in a true Blue state and in a district that has a democratic representative (and two democratic Senators!). It's a great feeling. Though I was at first a little unsure of Rep. Arcuri and his Blue Doggedness, he's beginning to grow on me a bit (yes, I'm aware of his shortcomings, so no need to rail against him in the comments in order to remind me!).
With that said, I checked out 538 today to see what Nate had to say about the race. It's been in the tossup category for awhile on the NYTimes site, but I wasn't aware of the polling on the race. What did I find, you ask? Well, Nate predicts NY-24 to lean GOP. Hmm...
So I clicked on the district to see what was the matter, and to my chagrin, I saw this:
Chance of GOP Win: 62.2% for Hanna
I was pretty surprised, so I looked for the polls that might support such a conclusion, and the polls say the following:
Sept. 13-15 Siena (605 LV) Arcuri: 48 Hanna: 40 Dem: +8
Aug. 29-31 Benenson DEM (400 LV) Arcuri: 50 Hanna: 37 Dem: +13
And these are likely voter models when the GOP was at its peak a few weeks back. Now, I'm pretty statistically savvy, but I don't claim to know exactly how Nate's models work. He's been defendinghis models against detractors like me lately (and rightfully so--I admit my optimism may be indicative of bias). With that said, how does one explain the outcomes of such a simulation, especially with Arcuri's fundraising advantage + polling advantage?
I'm taking it as yet another indicator that we got a shot at putting the kibosh on Boehner's dream job next month. So let's go!
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(disclaimer: I recognize that Arcuri is far from perfect in all his Blue Dog glory, but he's still better than Richard Hanna...so no need to donate etc. if you're anti-Arcuri...heck, I can't say I'm bending over backwards for his campaign. But I will be voting for him come November.)