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This is an update to my September 22 Diary documenting the collective House race ratings by the professional forecasters and using them to create composite vulnerability rankings.  I also used a comparison of the final ratings and the actual results from 2006 to 2008 to figure odds on a given race with a given score actually flipping.  The methodology is explained in the last post.  As I alluded to in the last post, the migration of these ratings continues to drift in the GOP direction, although at a slower pace.  Since the last post, there have been changes by the NY Times, Sabato and Rothenberg.  Thus, as of today, the predictive model forecasts a net loss of 35.18 seats.  This is still 4 short of what the GOP would need for a majority.  

This, however, is still subject to change over the next 4 weeks (29 days to be precise).  Indeed, if the changes in the ratings that occurred between 9/10 and 10/4 (24 days) were to be replicated in the next 29 days, the projected loss number would grow to 43 (42.74).  

As noted last time: 1. there are signs that the national GOP momentum may have stalled and even reversed; and 2. the GOP does not appear to be expanding the scope of seats in play, just increasing the odds of winning the seats that are in play.  (This update, one seat (WA-02) moved from uber-longshot to competitive but still strongly leaning hold).  

On point 1, as of this moment, the Pollster generic ballot average is down to a GOP advantage of just 1.6% (44.9%-43.3%).  Without dubious internet polls, that number is just 0.8% (44.7%-43.9%).  Finally, also chucking the house of Ras actually yields an average Democratic lead of 1% (45.6%-44.6%).  

Nate Silver has written a piece comparing the results of the generic ballot question to results of actual matchups between candidates in single-district polls and concludes that the GOP does a few points better in the generic question than the actual matchup across the board.  This suggests that the generic ballot numbers may understate ultimate Democratic support because there is a few percentage points difference between voters who'd prefer a Republican to a Democrat and those who would vote for their Republican candidate to their Democratic candidate.  This finding makes intuitive sense to me because (1) voters, in the end, tend to be risk averse and like their own incumbent a little better than his party or the Congress at large and (2) thanks to the Tea Party influence, the GOP has not exactly nominated a bevy of candidates with wide appeal.  All this suggests that there is something of a hidden cushion for the Dems.

The potential cushion has a second component as well.  As Nate and others have pointed out, the spread of seats and candidates means that the Dems could likely lose the national total House vote by up to 2.5% and still win a majority.  So, if the actual 2-party total vote for House candidates was 51-49 GOP, studies would suggest that the Dems would hold a very small majority.

Against this, as Charlie Cook and others have pointed out, is the fact that the GOP tends to overperform its generic ballot performance in midterms.  At any rate, all data, including the race-by-race picture points to an extremely close fight for control.  In sum, there are now 18 D seats and 2 R seats rated leaning to likely takeover.  Those seats are likely goners given past performance.  My model gives the GOP a net gain of 15.12 in these seats.

The next cut is the races rated as "tossups"--currently 30 D seats and 2 R seats.  My model predicts a gain of 13.86 for the GOP in these seats.

The third tier are competitive near-tossups, but with a lean toward the incumbent party.  There are 9 D and 1 R seats in this category, projecting to a further pickup of 3.4 for the GOP.

Fourth, there are 18 D and 3 R seats that are competitive but have a distinct lean to the incumbent party.  Of these, my model predicts a net of 2.56 to the GOP.

Finally, there are 34 D seats and 10 R seats that are longshot possibilities.  My model predicts a GOP gain of 0.24 seats from this group.  The five together add to +35.18.  

Here are the seats (with candidate financial disclosures through Q2):

Dem Seats
1. AR-02 (Overall Rank: 1).  PVI: R+4.  Total Vulnerability Score: 365.  Consensus Rating: Likely R Takeover.  D: J.Elliott (Raised: $490K; CoH: $106K).  R: T.Griffin (Raised: $955K; CoH: $316K).
2. TN-06 (Overall Rank: 2).  PVI: R+11.  Total Vulnerability Score: 360.  Consensus Rating: Likely R Takeover.  D: B.Carter (Raised: $119K; CoH: $100K).  R: D.Black (Raised: $836K; CoH: $197K).
3. LA-03 (Overall Rank: 3).  PVI: R+10.  Total Vulnerability Score: 360.  Consensus Rating: Likely R Takeover.  D: R.Sangisetty (Raised: $611K; CoH: $248K).  R: H.Downer (Raised: $604K; CoH: $63K).
4. NY-29 (Overall Rank: 4).  PVI: R+5.  Total Vulnerability Score: 360.  Consensus Rating: Likely R Takeover.  D: M.Zeller (Raised: $232K; CoH: $50K).  R: T.Reed (Raised: $809K; CoH: $361K).
5. IN-08 (Overall Rank: 5).  PVI: R+7.  Total Vulnerability Score: 315.  Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover.  D: T.Van Haaften (Raised: $473K; CoH: $360K).  R: L.Bucshon (Raised: $493K; CoH: $207K).
6. KS-03 (Overall Rank: 7).  PVI: R+4.  Total Vulnerability Score: 315.  Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover.  D: S.Moore (Raised: $362K; CoH: $237K).  R: K.Yoder (Raised: $840K; CoH: $510K).
7. CO-04 (Overall Rank: 9).  PVI: R+7.  Total Vulnerability Score: 300.  Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover.  D: B.Markey* (Raised: $2259K; CoH: $1508K).  R: C.Gardner (Raised: $1308K; CoH: $735K).
8. FL-24 (Overall Rank: 10).  PVI: R+4.  Total Vulnerability Score: 300.  Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover.  D: S.Kosmas* (Raised: $1844K; CoH: $1284K).  R: S.Adams (Raised: $392K; CoH: $115K).
9. OH-15 (Overall Rank: 11).  PVI: E.  Total Vulnerability Score: 300.  Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover.  D: M.Kilroy* (Raised: $1667K; CoH: $934K).  R: S.Stivers (Raised: $1517K; CoH: $1243K).
10. TN-08 (Overall Rank: 12).  PVI: R+5.  Total Vulnerability Score: 285.  Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover.  D: R.Herron (Raised: $1563K; CoH: $1186K).  R: S.Fincher (Raised: $1518K; CoH: $421K).
11. OH-01 (Overall Rank: 13).  PVI: D+1.  Total Vulnerability Score: 285.  Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover.  D: S.Driehaus* (Raised: $1410K; CoH: $973K).  R: S.Chabot (Raised: $1265K; CoH: $1007K).
12. TX-17 (Overall Rank: 14).  PVI: R+18.  Total Vulnerability Score: 280.  Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover.  D: C.Edwards* (Raised: $2619K; CoH: $2145K).  R: B.Flores (Raised: $1616K; CoH: $415K).
13. MI-01 (Overall Rank: 15).  PVI: R+3.  Total Vulnerability Score: 278.  Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover.  D: G.McDowell (Raised: $147K; CoH: $132K).  R: D.Benishek (Raised: $449K; CoH: $131K).
14. WA-03 (Overall Rank: 16).  PVI: E.  Total Vulnerability Score: 278.  Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover.  D: D.Heck (Raised: $1001K; CoH: $708K).  R: J.Herrera (Raised: $411K; CoH: $114K).
15. MD-01 (Overall Rank: 17).  PVI: R+12.  Total Vulnerability Score: 265.  Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover.  D: F.Kratovil* (Raised: $1854K; CoH: $1346K).  R: A.Harris (Raised: $1544K; CoH: $944K).
16. IL-11 (Overall Rank: 18).  PVI: R+2.  Total Vulnerability Score: 265.  Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover.  D: D.Halvorson* (Raised: $1973K; CoH: $1443K).  R: A.Kinzinger (Raised: $1072K; CoH: $480K).
17. VA-05 (Overall Rank: 19).  PVI: R+6.  Total Vulnerability Score: 263.  Consensus Rating: Tossup/Lean R Takeover.  D: T.Perriello* (Raised: $2301K; CoH: $1723K).  R: R.Hurt (Raised: $771K; CoH: $216K).
18. VA-02 (Overall Rank: 20).  PVI: R+5.  Total Vulnerability Score: 263.  Consensus Rating: Tossup/Lean R Takeover.  D: G.Nye* (Raised: $1787K; CoH: $1270K).  R: S.Rigell (Raised: $1654K; CoH: $227K).
19. AR-01 (Overall Rank: 21).  PVI: R+7.  Total Vulnerability Score: 255.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: C.Causey (Raised: $754K; CoH: $91K).  R: R.Crawford (Raised: $435K; CoH: $214K).
20. PA-07 (Overall Rank: 22).  PVI: D+4.  Total Vulnerability Score: 255.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: B.Lentz (Raised: $1028K; CoH: $786K).  R: P.Meehan (Raised: $1645K; CoH: $1124K).
21. NH-02 (Overall Rank: 23).  PVI: D+3.  Total Vulnerability Score: 250.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: A.Kuster (Raised: $1381K; CoH: $450K).  R: C.Bass (Raised: $538K; CoH: $312K).
22. NM-02 (Overall Rank: 24).  PVI: R+6.  Total Vulnerability Score: 250.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: H.Teague* (Raised: $1514K; CoH: $1169K).  R: S.Pearce (Raised: $1502K; CoH: $1024K).
23. PA-03 (Overall Rank: 25).  PVI: R+3.  Total Vulnerability Score: 250.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: K.Dahlkemper* (Raised: $1520K; CoH: $1015K).  R: M.Kelly (Raised: $547K; CoH: $104K).
24. AZ-01 (Overall Rank: 26).  PVI: R+3.  Total Vulnerability Score: 250.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: A.Kirkpatrick* (Raised: $1427K; CoH: $870K).  R: P.Gosar (Raised: $414K; CoH: $41K).
25. PA-11 (Overall Rank: 27).  PVI: D+5.  Total Vulnerability Score: 250.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: P.Kanjorski* (Raised: $1357K; CoH: $1058K).  R: L.Barletta (Raised: $568K; CoH: $237K).
26. MS-01 (Overall Rank: 28).  PVI: R+13.  Total Vulnerability Score: 243.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: T.Childers* (Raised: $1321K; CoH: $903K).  R: A.Nunnelee (Raised: $899K; CoH: $233K).
27. ND-AL (Overall Rank: 29).  PVI: R+10.  Total Vulnerability Score: 243.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: E.Pomeroy* (Raised: $2210K; CoH: $1669K).  R: R.Berg (Raised: $1045K; CoH: $752K).
28. NH-01 (Overall Rank: 30).  PVI: R+1.  Total Vulnerability Score: 243.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: C.Shea-Porter* (Raised: $997K; CoH: $529K).  R: F.Guinta (Raised: $911K; CoH: $158K).
29. WI-07 (Overall Rank: 32).  PVI: D+2.  Total Vulnerability Score: 228.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: J.Lassa (Raised: $548K; CoH: $403K).  R: S.Duffy (Raised: $1205K; CoH: $694K).
30. FL-02 (Overall Rank: 33).  PVI: R+5.  Total Vulnerability Score: 228.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: A.Boyd* (Raised: $1782K; CoH: $762K).  R: W.Southerland (Raised: $401K; CoH: $85K).
31. FL-08 (Overall Rank: 34).  PVI: R+2.  Total Vulnerability Score: 228.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: A.Grayson* (Raised: $3719K; CoH: $1369K).  R: D.Webster (Raised: $326K; CoH: $105K).
31. NV-03 (Overall Rank: 35).  PVI: D+2.  Total Vulnerability Score: 228.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: D.Titus* (Raised: $1672K; CoH: $1205K).  R: J.Heck (Raised: $604K; CoH: $362K).
33. WV-01 (Overall Rank: 36).  PVI: R+9.  Total Vulnerability Score: 220.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: M.Oliverio (Raised: $832K; CoH: $303K).  R: D.McKinley (Raised: $967K; CoH: $307K).
34. SD-AL (Overall Rank: 38).  PVI: R+9.  Total Vulnerability Score: 220.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: S.Herseth Sandlin* (Raised: $1118K; CoH: $707K).  R: K.Noem (Raised: $577K; CoH: $292K).
35. SC-05 (Overall Rank: 39).  PVI: R+7.  Total Vulnerability Score: 220.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: J.Spratt* (Raised: $1066K; CoH: $1201K).  R: M.Mulvaney (Raised: $617K; CoH: $471K).
36. IN-09 (Overall Rank: 40).  PVI: R+6.  Total Vulnerability Score: 220.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: B.Hill* (Raised: $1427K; CoH: $1109K).  R: T.Young (Raised: $845K; CoH: $260K).
37. OH-16 (Overall Rank: 41).  PVI: R+4.  Total Vulnerability Score: 220.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: J.Boccieri* (Raised: $1373K; CoH: $1061K).  R: J.Renacci (Raised: $1384K; CoH: $663K).
38. AZ-05 (Overall Rank: 42).  PVI: R+3.  Total Vulnerability Score: 220.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: H.Mitchell* (Raised: $1519K; CoH: $836K).  R: D.Schweikert (Raised: $668K; CoH: $226K).
39. MI-07 (Overall Rank: 43).  PVI: R+2.  Total Vulnerability Score: 220.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: M.Schauer* (Raised: $2244K; CoH: $1653K).  R: T.Walberg (Raised: $742K; CoH: $244K).
40. NY-24 (Overall Rank: 44).  PVI: R+1.  Total Vulnerability Score: 220.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: M.Arcuri* (Raised: $1277K; CoH: $601K).  R: R.Hanna (Raised: $779K; CoH: $500K).
41. GA-08 (Overall Rank: 45).  PVI: R+7.  Total Vulnerability Score: 212.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: J.Marshall* (Raised: $824K; CoH: $985K).  R: A.Scott (Raised: $251K; CoH: $213K).
42. IL-14 (Overall Rank: 46).  PVI: R+3.  Total Vulnerability Score: 212.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: B.Foster* (Raised: $2273K; CoH: $1549K).  R: R.Hultgren (Raised: $778K; CoH: $245K).
43. NY-19 (Overall Rank: 47).  PVI: R+2.  Total Vulnerability Score: 212.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: J.Hall* (Raised: $1257K; CoH: $504K).  R: N.Hayworth (Raised: $1369K; CoH: $563K).
44. PA-08 (Overall Rank: 48).  PVI: D+3.  Total Vulnerability Score: 205.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: P.Murphy* (Raised: $2663K; CoH: $1775K).  R: M.Fitzpatrick (Raised: $926K; CoH: $664K).
45. WI-08 (Overall Rank: 49).  PVI: R+2.  Total Vulnerability Score: 198.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: S.Kagen* (Raised: $1344K; CoH: $777K).  R: R.Ribble (Raised: $507K; CoH: $71K).
46. PA-10 (Overall Rank: 50).  PVI: R+8.  Total Vulnerability Score: 197.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: C.Carney* (Raised: $1169K; CoH: $793K).  R: T.Marino (Raised: $233K; CoH: $11K).
47. NC-08 (Overall Rank: 51).  PVI: R+3.  Total Vulnerability Score: 190.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: L.Kissell* (Raised: $704K; CoH: $293K).  R: H.Johnson (Raised: $482K; CoH: $82K).
48. IA-03 (Overall Rank: 52).  PVI: D+1.  Total Vulnerability Score: 190.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: L.Boswell* (Raised: $993K; CoH: $734K).  R: B.Zaun (Raised: $240K; CoH: $100K).
49. CO-03 (Overall Rank: 53).  PVI: R+6.  Total Vulnerability Score: 182.  Consensus Rating: Tossup/Lean D Hold.  D: J.Salazar* (Raised: $1225K; CoH: $1258K).  R: S.Tipton (Raised: $380K; CoH: $167K).
50. AL-02 (Overall Rank: 54).  PVI: R+16.  Total Vulnerability Score: 170.  Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold.  D: B.Bright* (Raised: $1102K; CoH: $734K).  R: M.Roby (Raised: $569K; CoH: $121K).
51. IL-17 (Overall Rank: 55).  PVI: D+3.  Total Vulnerability Score: 167.  Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold.  D: P.Hare* (Raised: $844K; CoH: $856K).  R: B.Schilling (Raised: $301K; CoH: $211K).
52. OH-18 (Overall Rank: 56).  PVI: R+7.  Total Vulnerability Score: 162.  Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold.  D: Z.Space* (Raised: $1945K; CoH: $1268K).  R: B.Gibbs (Raised: $570K; CoH: $210K).
53. CA-11 (Overall Rank: 57).  PVI: R+1.  Total Vulnerability Score: 162.  Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold.  D: J.McNerney* (Raised: $1698K; CoH: $1247K).  R: D.Harmer (Raised: $1816K; CoH: $233K).
54. IN-02 (Overall Rank: 59).  PVI: R+2.  Total Vulnerability Score: 160.  Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold.  D: J.Donnelly* (Raised: $1205K; CoH: $989K).  R: J.Walorski (Raised: $565K; CoH: $303K).
55. ID-01 (Overall Rank: 60).  PVI: R+18.  Total Vulnerability Score: 155.  Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold.  D: W.Minnick* (Raised: $1813K; CoH: $1139K).  R: R.Labrador (Raised: $286K; CoH: $69K).
56. TX-23 (Overall Rank: 61).  PVI: R+3.  Total Vulnerability Score: 155.  Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold.  D: C.Rodriguez* (Raised: $1147K; CoH: $702K).  R: F.Canseco (Raised: $1008K; CoH: $453K).
57. AZ-08 (Overall Rank: 62).  PVI: R+2.  Total Vulnerability Score: 155.  Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold.  D: G.Giffords* (Raised: $2364K; CoH: $1923K).  R: J.Kelly (Raised: $568K; CoH: $79K).
58. NY-20 (Overall Rank: 63).  PVI: R+2.  Total Vulnerability Score: 147.  Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold.  D: S.Murphy* (Raised: $4407K; CoH: $1453K).  R: C.Gibson (Raised: $854K; CoH: $327K).
59. GA-02 (Overall Rank: 64).  PVI: R+1.  Total Vulnerability Score: 147.  Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold.  D: S.Bishop* (Raised: $674K; CoH: $405K).  R: M.Keown (Raised: $491K; CoH: $238K).
60. MA-10 (Overall Rank: 66).  PVI: D+5.  Total Vulnerability Score: 140.  Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold.  D: B.Keating (Raised: $656K; CoH: $364K).  R: J.Perry (Raised: $517K; CoH: $128K).
61. MO-04 (Overall Rank: 67).  PVI: R+14.  Total Vulnerability Score: 140.  Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold.  D: I.Skelton* (Raised: $1941K; CoH: $1370K).  R: V.Hartzler (Raised: $498K; CoH: $242K).
62. VA-09 (Overall Rank: 68).  PVI: R+10.  Total Vulnerability Score: 140.  Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold.  D: R.Boucher* (Raised: $1537K; CoH: $2010K).  R: M.Griffith (Raised: $403K; CoH: $297K).
63. KY-06 (Overall Rank: 69).  PVI: R+9.  Total Vulnerability Score: 140.  Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold.  D: B.Chandler* (Raised: $906K; CoH: $1749K).  R: A.Barr (Raised: $812K; CoH: $361K).
64. PA-12 (Overall Rank: 70).  PVI: E.  Total Vulnerability Score: 140.  Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold.  D: M.Critz* (Raised: $1490K; CoH: $166K).  R: T.Burns (Raised: $1827K; CoH: $163K).
65. FL-22 (Overall Rank: 71).  PVI: D+1.  Total Vulnerability Score: 140.  Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold.  D: R.Klein* (Raised: $2514K; CoH: $2841K).  R: A.West (Raised: $4009K; CoH: $2249K).
66. NJ-03 (Overall Rank: 72).  PVI: D+1.  Total Vulnerability Score: 140.  Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold.  D: J.Adler* (Raised: $2456K; CoH: $1947K).  R: J.Runyan (Raised: $654K; CoH: $472K).
67. NM-01 (Overall Rank: 73).  PVI: D+4.  Total Vulnerability Score: 140.  Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold.  D: M.Heinrich* (Raised: $1806K; CoH: $1302K).  R: J.Barela (Raised: $770K; CoH: $537K).
68. OH-13 (Overall Rank: 74).  PVI: D+6.  Total Vulnerability Score: 140.  Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold.  D: B.Sutton* (Raised: $930K; CoH: $593K).  R: T.Ganley (Raised: $6669K; CoH: $2691K).
69. NY-01 (Overall Rank: 75).  PVI: D+1.  Total Vulnerability Score: 132.  Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold.  D: T.Bishop* (Raised: $1886K; CoH: $1539K).  R: R.Altschuler (Raised: $2890K; CoH: $1301K).
70. TN-04 (Overall Rank: 76).  PVI: R+12.  Total Vulnerability Score: 125.  Consensus Rating: Lean R Hold.  D: L.Davis* (Raised: $789K; CoH: $472K).  R: S.DesJarlais (Raised: $322K; CoH: $24K).
71. NY-23 (Overall Rank: 78).  PVI: R+1.  Total Vulnerability Score: 125.  Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold.  D: B.Owens* (Raised: $2233K; CoH: $600K).  R: D.Hoffman/ M.Doheny (Raised: $0K; CoH: $0K).
72. OR-05 (Overall Rank: 79).  PVI: D+1.  Total Vulnerability Score: 125.  Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold.  D: K.Schrader* (Raised: $1219K; CoH: $915K).  R: S.Bruun (Raised: $471K; CoH: $178K).
73. WA-02 (Overall Rank: 80).  PVI: D+3.  Total Vulnerability Score: 125.  Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold.  D: R.Larsen* (Raised: $1116K; CoH: $864K).  R: J.Koster (Raised: $424K; CoH: $127K).
74. MI-09 (Overall Rank: 82).  PVI: D+1.  Total Vulnerability Score: 110.  Consensus Rating: Lean/Likely D Hold.  D: G.Peters* (Raised: $2331K; CoH: $1928K).  R: A.Raczkowski (Raised: $841K; CoH: $215K).
75. VA-11 (Overall Rank: 83).  PVI: D+1.  Total Vulnerability Score: 110.  Consensus Rating: Lean/Likely D Hold.  D: G.Connolly* (Raised: $1740K; CoH: $1274K).  R: K.Fimian (Raised: $1175K; CoH: $272K).
76. CA-47 (Overall Rank: 84).  PVI: D+5.  Total Vulnerability Score: 110.  Consensus Rating: Lean/Likely D Hold.  D: Lo.Sanchez* (Raised: $1313K; CoH: $1268K).  R: V.Tran (Raised: $729K; CoH: $288K).
77. NY-13 (Overall Rank: 85).  PVI: R+2.  Total Vulnerability Score: 95.  Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold.  D: M.McMahon* (Raised: $2113K; CoH: $1097K).  R: M.Grimm (Raised: $796K; CoH: $385K).
78. CT-04 (Overall Rank: 86).  PVI: D+5.  Total Vulnerability Score: 95.  Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold.  D: J.Himes* (Raised: $2643K; CoH: $1887K).  R: D.Debicella (Raised: $820K; CoH: $493K).
79. NC-11 (Overall Rank: 87).  PVI: R+7.  Total Vulnerability Score: 80.  Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold.  D: H.Shuler* (Raised: $880K; CoH: $1429K).  R: J.Miller (Raised: $276K; CoH: $65K).
80. PA-04 (Overall Rank: 88).  PVI: R+6.  Total Vulnerability Score: 80.  Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold.  D: J.Altmire* (Raised: $1931K; CoH: $1466K).  R: K.Rothfus (Raised: $563K; CoH: $202K).
81. PA-17 (Overall Rank: 89).  PVI: R+6.  Total Vulnerability Score: 80.  Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold.  D: T.Holden* (Raised: $939K; CoH: $884K).  R: D.Argall (Raised: $205K; CoH: $29K).
82. WV-03 (Overall Rank: 90).  PVI: R+5.  Total Vulnerability Score: 80.  Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold.  D: N.Rahall* (Raised: $809K; CoH: $1588K).  R: E.Maynard (Raised: $186K; CoH: $115K).
83. MN-01 (Overall Rank: 92).  PVI: R+1.  Total Vulnerability Score: 80.  Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold.  D: T.Walz* (Raised: $1457K; CoH: $832K).  R: R.Demmer (Raised: $419K; CoH: $222K).
84. KY-03 (Overall Rank: 93).  PVI: D+3.  Total Vulnerability Score: 80.  Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold.  D: J.Yarmuth* (Raised: $997K; CoH: $600K).  R: T.Lally (Raised: $380K; CoH: $269K).
85. NY-25 (Overall Rank: 94).  PVI: D+3.  Total Vulnerability Score: 80.  Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold.  D: D.Maffei* (Raised: $2273K; CoH: $1160K).  R: A.Buerkle (Raised: $340K; CoH: $182K).
86. WI-03 (Overall Rank: 95).  PVI: D+4.  Total Vulnerability Score: 80.  Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold.  D: R.Kind* (Raised: $1216K; CoH: $1273K).  R: D.Kapanke (Raised: $685K; CoH: $322K).
87. OH-06 (Overall Rank: 97).  PVI: R+2.  Total Vulnerability Score: 65.  Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold.  D: C.Wilson* (Raised: $594K; CoH: $608K).  R: B.Johnson (Raised: $305K; CoH: $148K).
88. CT-05 (Overall Rank: 98).  PVI: D+3.  Total Vulnerability Score: 65.  Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold.  D: C.Murphy* (Raised: $2089K; CoH: $1491K).  R: S.Caliguri (Raised: $593K; CoH: $80K).
89. CO-07 (Overall Rank: 99).  PVI: D+4.  Total Vulnerability Score: 65.  Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold.  D: E.Perlmutter* (Raised: $1539K; CoH: $1283K).  R: R.Frazier (Raised: $876K; CoH: $252K).
90. RI-01 (Overall Rank: 101).  PVI: D+14.  Total Vulnerability Score: 60.  Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold.  D: D.Ciccilline (Raised: $1356K; CoH: $446K).  R: J.Loughlin (Raised: $470K; CoH: $67K).
91. MS-04 (Overall Rank: 105).  PVI: R+19.  Total Vulnerability Score: 50.  Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold.  D: G.Taylor* (Raised: $456K; CoH: $347K).  R: S.Palazzo (Raised: $223K; CoH: $26K).
92. IL-08 (Overall Rank: 106).  PVI: R+3.  Total Vulnerability Score: 50.  Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold.  D: M.Bean* (Raised: $1628K; CoH: $1171K).  R: J.Walsh (Raised: $317K; CoH: $30K).
93. CA-18 (Overall Rank: 107).  PVI: D+4.  Total Vulnerability Score: 50.  Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold.  D: D.Cardoza* (Raised: $807K; CoH: $575K).  R: M.Berryhill (Raised: $790K; CoH: $131K).
94. CA-20 (Overall Rank: 108).  PVI: D+6.  Total Vulnerability Score: 50.  Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold.  D: J.Costa* (Raised: $854K; CoH: $337K).  R: J.Vidak (Raised: $231K; CoH: $48K).
95. IA-02 (Overall Rank: 109).  PVI: D+7.  Total Vulnerability Score: 50.  Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold.  D: D.Loebsack* (Raised: $643K; CoH: $524K).  R: M.Miller-Meeks (Raised: $318K; CoH: $104K).
96. NC-07 (Overall Rank: 111).  PVI: R+5.  Total Vulnerability Score: 45.  Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold.  D: M.McIntyre* (Raised: $722K; CoH: $842K).  R: I.Pantano (Raised: $321K; CoH: $99K).
97. AR-04 (Overall Rank: 112).  PVI: R+6.  Total Vulnerability Score: 35.  Consensus Rating: .  D: M.Ross* (Raised: $1561K; CoH: $1148K).  R: B.Rankin (Raised: $147K; CoH: $69K).
98. GA-12 (Overall Rank: 113).  PVI: D+2.  Total Vulnerability Score: 35.  Consensus Rating: .  D: J.Barrow* (Raised: $1345K; CoH: $655K).  R: R.McKinney (Raised: $135K; CoH: $77K).
99. IA-01 (Overall Rank: 114).  PVI: D+5.  Total Vulnerability Score: 35.  Consensus Rating: .  D: B.Braley* (Raised: $1067K; CoH: $632K).  R: B.Lange (Raised: $168K; CoH: $110K).
100. NC-02 (Overall Rank: 116).  PVI: R+2.  Total Vulnerability Score: 30.  Consensus Rating: .  D: B.Etheridge* (Raised: $909K; CoH: $1208K).  R: R.Ellmers (Raised: $188K; CoH: $46K).
101. OR-01 (Overall Rank: 117).  PVI: D+7.  Total Vulnerability Score: 30.  Consensus Rating: .  D: D.Wu* (Raised: $973K; CoH: $627K).  R: R.Cornilles (Raised: $607K; CoH: $256K).
102. UT-02 (Overall Rank: 119).  PVI: R+15.  Total Vulnerability Score: 15.  Consensus Rating: .  D: J.Matheson* (Raised: $1358K; CoH: $1041K).  R: M.Philpot (Raised: $112K; CoH: $58K).
103. ME-02 (Overall Rank: 120).  PVI: D+3.  Total Vulnerability Score: 15.  Consensus Rating: .  D: M.Michaud* (Raised: $761K; CoH: $668K).  R: J.Levesque (Raised: $243K; CoH: $57K).
104. NJ-12 (Overall Rank: 122).  PVI: D+6.  Total Vulnerability Score: 15.  Consensus Rating: .  D: R.Holt* (Raised: $1193K; CoH: $1061K).  R: S.Sipprelle (Raised: $830K; CoH: $490K).
105. NY-22 (Overall Rank: 123).  PVI: D+6.  Total Vulnerability Score: 15.  Consensus Rating: .  D: M.Hinchey* (Raised: $586K; CoH: $267K).  R: G.Phillips (Raised: $248K; CoH: $35K).
106. WA-09 (Overall Rank: 124).  PVI: D+6.  Total Vulnerability Score: 15.  Consensus Rating: .  D: A.Smith* (Raised: $603K; CoH: $444K).  R: D.Muri (Raised: $94K; CoH: $1K).
107. ME-01 (Overall Rank: 125).  PVI: D+7.  Total Vulnerability Score: 15.  Consensus Rating: .  D: C.Pingree* (Raised: $670K; CoH: $361K).  R: D.Scontras (Raised: $152K; CoH: $67K).
108. NY-04 (Overall Rank: 126).  PVI: D+7.  Total Vulnerability Score: 15.  Consensus Rating: .  D: C.McCarthy* (Raised: $1344K; CoH: $771K).  R: F.Becker (Raised: $88K; CoH: $25K).
109. MO-03 (Overall Rank: 127).  PVI: D+8.  Total Vulnerability Score: 15.  Consensus Rating: .  D: R.Carnahan* (Raised: $1218K; CoH: $666K).  R: E.Martin (Raised: $835K; CoH: $582K).
110. MA-05 (Overall Rank: 128).  PVI: D+8.  Total Vulnerability Score: 15.  Consensus Rating: .  D: N.Tsongas* (Raised: $1370K; CoH: $517K).  R: J.Golnik (Raised: $226K; CoH: $78K).

GOP Seats
1. DE-AL (Overall Rank: 6).  PVI: D+6.  Total Vulnerability Score: 315.  Consensus Rating: Lean D Takeover.  D: J.Carney (Raised: $1502K; CoH: $904K).  R: G.Urquhart (Raised: $708K; CoH: $194K).
2. LA-02 (Overall Rank: 8).  PVI: D+25.  Total Vulnerability Score: 315.  Consensus Rating: Lean D Takeover.  D: C.Richmond (Raised: $507K; CoH: $166K).  R: J.Cao* (Raised: $1462K; CoH: $301K).
3. HI-01 (Overall Rank: 31).  PVI: D+9.  Total Vulnerability Score: 228.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: C.Hanabusa (Raised: $1704K; CoH: $410K).  R: C.Djou* (Raised: $1683K; CoH: $428K).
4. IL-10 (Overall Rank: 37).  PVI: D+4.  Total Vulnerability Score: 220.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: D.Seals (Raised: $1694K; CoH: $792K).  R: R.Dold (Raised: $1499K; CoH: $748K).
5. CA-03 (Overall Rank: 58).  PVI: R+6.  Total Vulnerability Score: 162.  Consensus Rating: Lean R Hold.  D: A.Bera (Raised: $1630K; CoH: $1140K).  R: D.Lungren* (Raised: $1220K; CoH: $802K).
6. FL-25 (Overall Rank: 65).  PVI: R+5.  Total Vulnerability Score: 140.  Consensus Rating: Lean R Hold.  D: J.Garcia (Raised: $871K; CoH: $568K).  R: D.Rivera (Raised: $1330K; CoH: $1156K).
7. PA-15 (Overall Rank: 77).  PVI: D+2.  Total Vulnerability Score: 125.  Consensus Rating: Lean R Hold.  D: J.Callahan (Raised: $1407K; CoH: $989K).  R: C.Dent* (Raised: $1743K; CoH: $1043K).
8. WA-08 (Overall Rank: 81).  PVI: D+3.  Total Vulnerability Score: 110.  Consensus Rating: Lean/Likely R Hold.  D: S.Del Bene (Raised: $1698K; CoH: $916K).  R: D.Reichert* (Raised: $1818K; CoH: $1006K).
9. PA-06 (Overall Rank: 91).  PVI: D+4.  Total Vulnerability Score: 80.  Consensus Rating: Likely R Hold.  D: M.Trivedi (Raised: $836K; CoH: $329K).  R: J.Gerlach* (Raised: $1373K; CoH: $541K).
10. NE-02 (Overall Rank: 96).  PVI: R+6.  Total Vulnerability Score: 80.  Consensus Rating: Likely R Hold.  D: T.White (Raised: $675K; CoH: $532K).  R: L.Terry* (Raised: $1305K; CoH: $787K).
11. MN-06 (Overall Rank: 100).  PVI: R+6.  Total Vulnerability Score: 65.  Consensus Rating: Likely R Hold.  D: T.Clark (Raised: $2412K; CoH: $798K).  R: M.Bachmann* (Raised: $4585K; CoH: $2406K).
12. OH-12 (Overall Rank: 102).  PVI: E.  Total Vulnerability Score: 60.  Consensus Rating: Likely R Hold.  D: P.Brooks (Raised: $994K; CoH: $683K).  R: P.Tiberi* (Raised: $2118K; CoH: $1902K).
13. CA-45 (Overall Rank: 103).  PVI: R+2.  Total Vulnerability Score: 60.  Consensus Rating: Likely R Hold.  D: S.Pougnet (Raised: $1268K; CoH: $878K).  R: M.Bono-Mack* (Raised: $1732K; CoH: $1242K).
14. AZ-03 (Overall Rank: 104).  PVI: R+7.  Total Vulnerability Score: 50.  Consensus Rating: Likely R Hold.  D: J.Hulburd (Raised: $778K; CoH: $428K).  R: B.Quayle (Raised: $1344K; CoH: $429K).
15. FL-12 (Overall Rank: 110).  PVI: R+5.  Total Vulnerability Score: 45.  Consensus Rating: Likely R Hold.  D: L.Edwards (Raised: $346K; CoH: $103K).  R: D.Ross (Raised: $811K; CoH: $403K).
16. AL-05 (Overall Rank: 115).  PVI: R+11.  Total Vulnerability Score: 30.  Consensus Rating: .  D: S.Raby (Raised: $458K; CoH: $111K).  R: M.Brooks (Raised: $447K; CoH: $259K).
17. MI-03 (Overall Rank: 118).  PVI: R+7.  Total Vulnerability Score: 15.  Consensus Rating: .  D: P.Miles (Raised: $318K; CoH: $227K).  R: J.Amash (Raised: $379K; CoH: $112K).
18. CA-44 (Overall Rank: 121).  PVI: R+5.  Total Vulnerability Score: 15.  Consensus Rating: .  D: B.Hedrick (Raised: $368K; CoH: $149K).  R: K.Calvert* (Raised: $1369K; CoH: $681K).

Originally posted to Superribbie on Mon Oct 04, 2010 at 11:43 AM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (30+ / 0-)

    I'mma let you finish, Barack, but the teabaggers have done about the most for international peace of all time.--The collective GOP 10/9/09

    by Superribbie on Mon Oct 04, 2010 at 11:43:31 AM PDT

  •  Nice analytical work. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoundDog, Lujane

    Great fodder for the wonks to munch.

    We have just enough religion to make us hate, but not enough to make us love one another. -- Jonathan Swift

    by raptavio on Mon Oct 04, 2010 at 11:47:10 AM PDT

  •  Nice work, as usual. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoundDog, Lujane

    It'll be interesting to see if the "leaking" R trend reverses over the next two weeks.  If we can get solid momentum back the other way, I see us holding the House with a slim (5-10 seats) majority.

    "President Obama will be the most liberal President of our lifetime."

    by rashomon on Mon Oct 04, 2010 at 11:48:24 AM PDT

    •  correct me if I am wrong but (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      AbsurdEyes, Lujane

      are the congressional republicans polling at the worst level ever in political polling?  Wonder why that is being hushed up?

      Republicans===the party of the 1% rich people in America. Or in other words..The Party of NO!

      by jalapeno on Mon Oct 04, 2010 at 11:51:20 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yes (7+ / 0-)

        but, as I argued in 2006, it historically has been nearly irrelevant how the opposition party is viewed in terms of midterm results.  It is by and large a referendum on the party in power.  Then again, there has never been a midterm (to my knowledge) in which (1) the party in power has a net negative rating; but (2) the out party is viewed as worse.

        To be fair, the race-by-race polling has showed no sign that GOP candidates are being hurt by the fact that the country doesn't like the GOP or its policies.  

        I'mma let you finish, Barack, but the teabaggers have done about the most for international peace of all time.--The collective GOP 10/9/09

        by Superribbie on Mon Oct 04, 2010 at 11:55:21 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  re: GOP Candidates (0+ / 0-)

          Is it because the Dems have failed to make sure every American is aware of that fact that the country doesn't like the GOP or its policies?

          Republicans===the party of the 1% rich people in America. Or in other words..The Party of NO!

          by jalapeno on Mon Oct 04, 2010 at 12:02:51 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  On a macro level, (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Superribbie, jalapeno

          you're probably right, but on a race by race basis, I am sure key Dems will be able to exploit the extreme views of their opponents, and thus remind voters why they distrust Rs so much. And since there are so many untested R candidates this year, and many with extreme views, this could really pay off.

          It reminds me of the Critz/Burns race. Pelosi and House Democrats were deeply unpopular, and yet Critz still won by localizing the race.

          •  True (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            itskevin

            and that theory is supported by the handful of polls showing the matchup numbers better than the generic numbers in the same poll.

            I'mma let you finish, Barack, but the teabaggers have done about the most for international peace of all time.--The collective GOP 10/9/09

            by Superribbie on Mon Oct 04, 2010 at 01:34:37 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  Yes (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      IM, AbsurdEyes

      These shifts tend to be something of a trailing indicator, with the polling moves the leading indicator.  After all, these forecasters are watching the polls, national and local, when making these calls.

      I'mma let you finish, Barack, but the teabaggers have done about the most for international peace of all time.--The collective GOP 10/9/09

      by Superribbie on Mon Oct 04, 2010 at 11:51:50 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Let's turn that gain/loss number to (5+ / 0-)

    20 or less.  We have a month.  We have the power.  We have the message.

    "Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity." --M. L. King "You can't fix stupid" --Ron White

    by zenbassoon on Mon Oct 04, 2010 at 11:50:34 AM PDT

  •  we need to hold it by 4-5 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Superribbie, IM, HoundDog

    I am sure there are 3 or 4 willing to switch parties in the house or not vote for Nancy Pelosi for speaker so we need a good margin.

    same in the senate.  we need at least 52 to keep Lieberman and Ben Nelson from jumping ship.

    Republicans===the party of the 1% rich people in America. Or in other words..The Party of NO!

    by jalapeno on Mon Oct 04, 2010 at 11:50:41 AM PDT

    •  In the House, (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      NCJim, Lujane, lompe, tapu dali

      no one will flip. They would have survived one of the toughest elections they'll ever experience - as a Democrat. And in 2012, the dynamics will have changed, as the enthusiasm gap will be virtually non-existent in a presidential election year.

      Plus, I'm sure they remember all too well what happened to party switchers in this election cycle. If they switch, they'll no doubt be challenged by tea partiers - and they'll lose.

      •  The more insidious (and likely) scenario (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Flaming Liberal for Jesus

        is that a rump faction of conservadems would make a deal with the GOP not to switch parties and make Boehner speaker, but to make one of the conservadems speaker in a bipartisan power-sharing arrangement.  One David Broder would be proud of.

        I'mma let you finish, Barack, but the teabaggers have done about the most for international peace of all time.--The collective GOP 10/9/09

        by Superribbie on Mon Oct 04, 2010 at 02:00:36 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Not to say that that is likely, (0+ / 0-)

          but I would say it is more likely than outright flips--especially given the caliber of GOP primary voter these days.

          I'mma let you finish, Barack, but the teabaggers have done about the most for international peace of all time.--The collective GOP 10/9/09

          by Superribbie on Mon Oct 04, 2010 at 02:01:32 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Lieberman won't switch (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Lujane, tgrshark13

      Unless he is going to retire and just wants to stick it to democrats.His only chance at winning re-election is as an indy.
      Nelson is either going to retire or get slaughtered by the GOP governor so he has no incentive to switch.
      All the conservative democrats can lose as far as I'm concerned.That Oliveri in WV-3 is more conservative than 75% of republicans.

  •  Thanks for the great work. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoundDog, Lujane, tapu dali

    Why do you think your model forecasts a much different result than Nate's?

    •  Good question (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      HoundDog, Lujane, BrowniesAreGood

      For starters, the difference is actually just about 10 (he shows R+45.3; I am at R+35.2)--it is just a key 10 given where the majority tipping point is.  The quick answer is that he is poll-based; I am forecaster and history-based.

      I'mma let you finish, Barack, but the teabaggers have done about the most for international peace of all time.--The collective GOP 10/9/09

      by Superribbie on Mon Oct 04, 2010 at 12:04:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Colorado Blue Dogs... (0+ / 0-)

    Are pretty much running as republicans.  Markey is running on not voting on TARP and a Congressional pay cut she signed onto.  Bennett is running on 'cleaning up Washington'.  Both are getting slammed by their opponents for their votes on HCR.  They should be running commercials explaining the benefits of the legislation instead of trying to look like outsiders.  Epic Fail.

    "Nothing great was ever achieved with out enthusiasm." -Ralph Waldo Emerson

    by RichM on Mon Oct 04, 2010 at 12:41:45 PM PDT

  •  NY-19 Polling is irrelevant (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Lujane

    The district is so tight that the only relevant question is who gets the vote from religious separatists in Kiryas Joel. They're either not polled or will not answer polls, so they're not included in any surveys, yet they're a bloc of 10,000 or so votes who go with what their leadership tells them.

    Hige sceal þe heardra, heorte þe cenre, mod sceal þe mare, þe ure mægen lytlað

    by milkbone on Mon Oct 04, 2010 at 12:56:33 PM PDT

  •  Rasmussen (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Lujane

    has the GOP up by 3 in the generic ballot - their lowest advantage in a year ... (Oct 11 09 gap was +2 GOP)

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/...

    I am an unabashed supporter of President Obama and ALL Democrats - so deal with it !

    by geeknnerd2 on Mon Oct 04, 2010 at 01:02:32 PM PDT

  •  What is interesting is that most of the Democrats (0+ / 0-)

    in trouble are Blue Dogs ... that, in theory, should send the Democrats a message about whether the Party should be running as ConservatLite generally ... SHOULD ...

    I am optimistic generally for the reasons this post covers nicely:

  •  What is your methodology (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew

    I don't think I understand it.

    I am tracking the House polling here:

    https://spreadsheets.google.com/...

    There have been 48 polls of House Districts since September 15th.  On average, they show a shift from 2008 of 13.5%, which would imply a GOP lead in the generic ballot of 3 points.  Democrats are running on average about 3 points better then the PVI of the district would suggest.

    At this point there is now way to square polling from individual house seats with generic polling showing the GOP up 10.

    The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

    by fladem on Mon Oct 04, 2010 at 04:20:46 PM PDT

    •  I don't look at polls at all (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      fladem

      I assign a numeric value to the race rating assigned each seat by the Cook Report, the Rothenberg Report, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, Congressional Quarterly, and the NY Times.  For the first 4, 15 points for "likely hold", 30 points for "lean hold", 45 points for "tossup", 60 for "lean takeover", 75 for "likely takeover" and 90 for "safe takeover."  The NYT, which doesn't have a "likely" category, is 0-20-40-60-80.

      I then total the ratings from all 5 sources to get a point total and a composite rating.

      The projections come from using what percentage of seats in each point range in 2006 and 2008 actually flipped.  I use 345+ is 100%, 265-344 is 95%, 256-64 is 81%, 250-55 is 67%, 241-49 is 50%, 226-40 is 44%, 155-225 is 42.5%, 110-54 is 15.8% for the party on offense and 11.5% for the party on defense, and 1-109 is 1%.

      I have never found individual House polling to be hugely reliable.  If it were, we'd have had Reps. Jack Davis (D-NY 27) and Ethan Berkowitz (D-AK AL) in '06 and '08 respectively.  It's harder to poll a smaller electorate and there are never enough data points to get a decent average anyway.

      I'mma let you finish, Barack, but the teabaggers have done about the most for international peace of all time.--The collective GOP 10/9/09

      by Superribbie on Mon Oct 04, 2010 at 07:03:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I wonder why your results are drifting to GOP (0+ / 0-)

    while others (see Steve Singiser's polling results) seem to be drifting our way, or pretty much steady (Nate Silver's)?

    Fascinating stuff for geeks like me.

    We all differ in ways that matter. But we're all the same in the ways that matter most.

    by plf515 on Wed Oct 06, 2010 at 02:51:23 AM PDT

    •  I'm based on trailing indicators (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      plf515

      (the race-watcher ratings).  Also, I am based on race-by-race as opposed to national results, which it takes time to see how they filter into individual races.  The lower numbers I was showing earlier were partially a product of everyone being unsure where the GOP advantage would be felt and therefore rating seats as safer than they truly were.  That is still being corrected.

      As for the possible momentum shift now, that comes out in the slowing of the pace of drift.

      I'mma let you finish, Barack, but the teabaggers have done about the most for international peace of all time.--The collective GOP 10/9/09

      by Superribbie on Wed Oct 06, 2010 at 08:59:52 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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