This is an update to my September 22 Diary documenting the collective House race ratings by the professional forecasters and using them to create composite vulnerability rankings. I also used a comparison of the final ratings and the actual results from 2006 to 2008 to figure odds on a given race with a given score actually flipping. The methodology is explained in the last post. As I alluded to in the last post, the migration of these ratings continues to drift in the GOP direction, although at a slower pace. Since the last post, there have been changes by the NY Times, Sabato and Rothenberg. Thus, as of today, the predictive model forecasts a net loss of 35.18 seats. This is still 4 short of what the GOP would need for a majority.
This, however, is still subject to change over the next 4 weeks (29 days to be precise). Indeed, if the changes in the ratings that occurred between 9/10 and 10/4 (24 days) were to be replicated in the next 29 days, the projected loss number would grow to 43 (42.74).
As noted last time: 1. there are signs that the national GOP momentum may have stalled and even reversed; and 2. the GOP does not appear to be expanding the scope of seats in play, just increasing the odds of winning the seats that are in play. (This update, one seat (WA-02) moved from uber-longshot to competitive but still strongly leaning hold).
On point 1, as of this moment, the Pollster generic ballot average is down to a GOP advantage of just 1.6% (44.9%-43.3%). Without dubious internet polls, that number is just 0.8% (44.7%-43.9%). Finally, also chucking the house of Ras actually yields an average Democratic lead of 1% (45.6%-44.6%).
Nate Silver has written a piece comparing the results of the generic ballot question to results of actual matchups between candidates in single-district polls and concludes that the GOP does a few points better in the generic question than the actual matchup across the board. This suggests that the generic ballot numbers may understate ultimate Democratic support because there is a few percentage points difference between voters who'd prefer a Republican to a Democrat and those who would vote for their Republican candidate to their Democratic candidate. This finding makes intuitive sense to me because (1) voters, in the end, tend to be risk averse and like their own incumbent a little better than his party or the Congress at large and (2) thanks to the Tea Party influence, the GOP has not exactly nominated a bevy of candidates with wide appeal. All this suggests that there is something of a hidden cushion for the Dems.
The potential cushion has a second component as well. As Nate and others have pointed out, the spread of seats and candidates means that the Dems could likely lose the national total House vote by up to 2.5% and still win a majority. So, if the actual 2-party total vote for House candidates was 51-49 GOP, studies would suggest that the Dems would hold a very small majority.
Against this, as Charlie Cook and others have pointed out, is the fact that the GOP tends to overperform its generic ballot performance in midterms. At any rate, all data, including the race-by-race picture points to an extremely close fight for control. In sum, there are now 18 D seats and 2 R seats rated leaning to likely takeover. Those seats are likely goners given past performance. My model gives the GOP a net gain of 15.12 in these seats.
The next cut is the races rated as "tossups"--currently 30 D seats and 2 R seats. My model predicts a gain of 13.86 for the GOP in these seats.
The third tier are competitive near-tossups, but with a lean toward the incumbent party. There are 9 D and 1 R seats in this category, projecting to a further pickup of 3.4 for the GOP.
Fourth, there are 18 D and 3 R seats that are competitive but have a distinct lean to the incumbent party. Of these, my model predicts a net of 2.56 to the GOP.
Finally, there are 34 D seats and 10 R seats that are longshot possibilities. My model predicts a GOP gain of 0.24 seats from this group. The five together add to +35.18.
Here are the seats (with candidate financial disclosures through Q2):
Dem Seats
1. AR-02 (Overall Rank: 1). PVI: R+4. Total Vulnerability Score: 365. Consensus Rating: Likely R Takeover. D: J.Elliott (Raised: $490K; CoH: $106K). R: T.Griffin (Raised: $955K; CoH: $316K).
2. TN-06 (Overall Rank: 2). PVI: R+11. Total Vulnerability Score: 360. Consensus Rating: Likely R Takeover. D: B.Carter (Raised: $119K; CoH: $100K). R: D.Black (Raised: $836K; CoH: $197K).
3. LA-03 (Overall Rank: 3). PVI: R+10. Total Vulnerability Score: 360. Consensus Rating: Likely R Takeover. D: R.Sangisetty (Raised: $611K; CoH: $248K). R: H.Downer (Raised: $604K; CoH: $63K).
4. NY-29 (Overall Rank: 4). PVI: R+5. Total Vulnerability Score: 360. Consensus Rating: Likely R Takeover. D: M.Zeller (Raised: $232K; CoH: $50K). R: T.Reed (Raised: $809K; CoH: $361K).
5. IN-08 (Overall Rank: 5). PVI: R+7. Total Vulnerability Score: 315. Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover. D: T.Van Haaften (Raised: $473K; CoH: $360K). R: L.Bucshon (Raised: $493K; CoH: $207K).
6. KS-03 (Overall Rank: 7). PVI: R+4. Total Vulnerability Score: 315. Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover. D: S.Moore (Raised: $362K; CoH: $237K). R: K.Yoder (Raised: $840K; CoH: $510K).
7. CO-04 (Overall Rank: 9). PVI: R+7. Total Vulnerability Score: 300. Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover. D: B.Markey* (Raised: $2259K; CoH: $1508K). R: C.Gardner (Raised: $1308K; CoH: $735K).
8. FL-24 (Overall Rank: 10). PVI: R+4. Total Vulnerability Score: 300. Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover. D: S.Kosmas* (Raised: $1844K; CoH: $1284K). R: S.Adams (Raised: $392K; CoH: $115K).
9. OH-15 (Overall Rank: 11). PVI: E. Total Vulnerability Score: 300. Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover. D: M.Kilroy* (Raised: $1667K; CoH: $934K). R: S.Stivers (Raised: $1517K; CoH: $1243K).
10. TN-08 (Overall Rank: 12). PVI: R+5. Total Vulnerability Score: 285. Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover. D: R.Herron (Raised: $1563K; CoH: $1186K). R: S.Fincher (Raised: $1518K; CoH: $421K).
11. OH-01 (Overall Rank: 13). PVI: D+1. Total Vulnerability Score: 285. Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover. D: S.Driehaus* (Raised: $1410K; CoH: $973K). R: S.Chabot (Raised: $1265K; CoH: $1007K).
12. TX-17 (Overall Rank: 14). PVI: R+18. Total Vulnerability Score: 280. Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover. D: C.Edwards* (Raised: $2619K; CoH: $2145K). R: B.Flores (Raised: $1616K; CoH: $415K).
13. MI-01 (Overall Rank: 15). PVI: R+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 278. Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover. D: G.McDowell (Raised: $147K; CoH: $132K). R: D.Benishek (Raised: $449K; CoH: $131K).
14. WA-03 (Overall Rank: 16). PVI: E. Total Vulnerability Score: 278. Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover. D: D.Heck (Raised: $1001K; CoH: $708K). R: J.Herrera (Raised: $411K; CoH: $114K).
15. MD-01 (Overall Rank: 17). PVI: R+12. Total Vulnerability Score: 265. Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover. D: F.Kratovil* (Raised: $1854K; CoH: $1346K). R: A.Harris (Raised: $1544K; CoH: $944K).
16. IL-11 (Overall Rank: 18). PVI: R+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 265. Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover. D: D.Halvorson* (Raised: $1973K; CoH: $1443K). R: A.Kinzinger (Raised: $1072K; CoH: $480K).
17. VA-05 (Overall Rank: 19). PVI: R+6. Total Vulnerability Score: 263. Consensus Rating: Tossup/Lean R Takeover. D: T.Perriello* (Raised: $2301K; CoH: $1723K). R: R.Hurt (Raised: $771K; CoH: $216K).
18. VA-02 (Overall Rank: 20). PVI: R+5. Total Vulnerability Score: 263. Consensus Rating: Tossup/Lean R Takeover. D: G.Nye* (Raised: $1787K; CoH: $1270K). R: S.Rigell (Raised: $1654K; CoH: $227K).
19. AR-01 (Overall Rank: 21). PVI: R+7. Total Vulnerability Score: 255. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: C.Causey (Raised: $754K; CoH: $91K). R: R.Crawford (Raised: $435K; CoH: $214K).
20. PA-07 (Overall Rank: 22). PVI: D+4. Total Vulnerability Score: 255. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: B.Lentz (Raised: $1028K; CoH: $786K). R: P.Meehan (Raised: $1645K; CoH: $1124K).
21. NH-02 (Overall Rank: 23). PVI: D+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 250. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: A.Kuster (Raised: $1381K; CoH: $450K). R: C.Bass (Raised: $538K; CoH: $312K).
22. NM-02 (Overall Rank: 24). PVI: R+6. Total Vulnerability Score: 250. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: H.Teague* (Raised: $1514K; CoH: $1169K). R: S.Pearce (Raised: $1502K; CoH: $1024K).
23. PA-03 (Overall Rank: 25). PVI: R+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 250. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: K.Dahlkemper* (Raised: $1520K; CoH: $1015K). R: M.Kelly (Raised: $547K; CoH: $104K).
24. AZ-01 (Overall Rank: 26). PVI: R+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 250. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: A.Kirkpatrick* (Raised: $1427K; CoH: $870K). R: P.Gosar (Raised: $414K; CoH: $41K).
25. PA-11 (Overall Rank: 27). PVI: D+5. Total Vulnerability Score: 250. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: P.Kanjorski* (Raised: $1357K; CoH: $1058K). R: L.Barletta (Raised: $568K; CoH: $237K).
26. MS-01 (Overall Rank: 28). PVI: R+13. Total Vulnerability Score: 243. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: T.Childers* (Raised: $1321K; CoH: $903K). R: A.Nunnelee (Raised: $899K; CoH: $233K).
27. ND-AL (Overall Rank: 29). PVI: R+10. Total Vulnerability Score: 243. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: E.Pomeroy* (Raised: $2210K; CoH: $1669K). R: R.Berg (Raised: $1045K; CoH: $752K).
28. NH-01 (Overall Rank: 30). PVI: R+1. Total Vulnerability Score: 243. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: C.Shea-Porter* (Raised: $997K; CoH: $529K). R: F.Guinta (Raised: $911K; CoH: $158K).
29. WI-07 (Overall Rank: 32). PVI: D+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 228. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: J.Lassa (Raised: $548K; CoH: $403K). R: S.Duffy (Raised: $1205K; CoH: $694K).
30. FL-02 (Overall Rank: 33). PVI: R+5. Total Vulnerability Score: 228. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: A.Boyd* (Raised: $1782K; CoH: $762K). R: W.Southerland (Raised: $401K; CoH: $85K).
31. FL-08 (Overall Rank: 34). PVI: R+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 228. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: A.Grayson* (Raised: $3719K; CoH: $1369K). R: D.Webster (Raised: $326K; CoH: $105K).
31. NV-03 (Overall Rank: 35). PVI: D+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 228. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: D.Titus* (Raised: $1672K; CoH: $1205K). R: J.Heck (Raised: $604K; CoH: $362K).
33. WV-01 (Overall Rank: 36). PVI: R+9. Total Vulnerability Score: 220. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: M.Oliverio (Raised: $832K; CoH: $303K). R: D.McKinley (Raised: $967K; CoH: $307K).
34. SD-AL (Overall Rank: 38). PVI: R+9. Total Vulnerability Score: 220. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: S.Herseth Sandlin* (Raised: $1118K; CoH: $707K). R: K.Noem (Raised: $577K; CoH: $292K).
35. SC-05 (Overall Rank: 39). PVI: R+7. Total Vulnerability Score: 220. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: J.Spratt* (Raised: $1066K; CoH: $1201K). R: M.Mulvaney (Raised: $617K; CoH: $471K).
36. IN-09 (Overall Rank: 40). PVI: R+6. Total Vulnerability Score: 220. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: B.Hill* (Raised: $1427K; CoH: $1109K). R: T.Young (Raised: $845K; CoH: $260K).
37. OH-16 (Overall Rank: 41). PVI: R+4. Total Vulnerability Score: 220. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: J.Boccieri* (Raised: $1373K; CoH: $1061K). R: J.Renacci (Raised: $1384K; CoH: $663K).
38. AZ-05 (Overall Rank: 42). PVI: R+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 220. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: H.Mitchell* (Raised: $1519K; CoH: $836K). R: D.Schweikert (Raised: $668K; CoH: $226K).
39. MI-07 (Overall Rank: 43). PVI: R+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 220. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: M.Schauer* (Raised: $2244K; CoH: $1653K). R: T.Walberg (Raised: $742K; CoH: $244K).
40. NY-24 (Overall Rank: 44). PVI: R+1. Total Vulnerability Score: 220. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: M.Arcuri* (Raised: $1277K; CoH: $601K). R: R.Hanna (Raised: $779K; CoH: $500K).
41. GA-08 (Overall Rank: 45). PVI: R+7. Total Vulnerability Score: 212. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: J.Marshall* (Raised: $824K; CoH: $985K). R: A.Scott (Raised: $251K; CoH: $213K).
42. IL-14 (Overall Rank: 46). PVI: R+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 212. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: B.Foster* (Raised: $2273K; CoH: $1549K). R: R.Hultgren (Raised: $778K; CoH: $245K).
43. NY-19 (Overall Rank: 47). PVI: R+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 212. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: J.Hall* (Raised: $1257K; CoH: $504K). R: N.Hayworth (Raised: $1369K; CoH: $563K).
44. PA-08 (Overall Rank: 48). PVI: D+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 205. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: P.Murphy* (Raised: $2663K; CoH: $1775K). R: M.Fitzpatrick (Raised: $926K; CoH: $664K).
45. WI-08 (Overall Rank: 49). PVI: R+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 198. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: S.Kagen* (Raised: $1344K; CoH: $777K). R: R.Ribble (Raised: $507K; CoH: $71K).
46. PA-10 (Overall Rank: 50). PVI: R+8. Total Vulnerability Score: 197. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: C.Carney* (Raised: $1169K; CoH: $793K). R: T.Marino (Raised: $233K; CoH: $11K).
47. NC-08 (Overall Rank: 51). PVI: R+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 190. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: L.Kissell* (Raised: $704K; CoH: $293K). R: H.Johnson (Raised: $482K; CoH: $82K).
48. IA-03 (Overall Rank: 52). PVI: D+1. Total Vulnerability Score: 190. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: L.Boswell* (Raised: $993K; CoH: $734K). R: B.Zaun (Raised: $240K; CoH: $100K).
49. CO-03 (Overall Rank: 53). PVI: R+6. Total Vulnerability Score: 182. Consensus Rating: Tossup/Lean D Hold. D: J.Salazar* (Raised: $1225K; CoH: $1258K). R: S.Tipton (Raised: $380K; CoH: $167K).
50. AL-02 (Overall Rank: 54). PVI: R+16. Total Vulnerability Score: 170. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: B.Bright* (Raised: $1102K; CoH: $734K). R: M.Roby (Raised: $569K; CoH: $121K).
51. IL-17 (Overall Rank: 55). PVI: D+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 167. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: P.Hare* (Raised: $844K; CoH: $856K). R: B.Schilling (Raised: $301K; CoH: $211K).
52. OH-18 (Overall Rank: 56). PVI: R+7. Total Vulnerability Score: 162. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: Z.Space* (Raised: $1945K; CoH: $1268K). R: B.Gibbs (Raised: $570K; CoH: $210K).
53. CA-11 (Overall Rank: 57). PVI: R+1. Total Vulnerability Score: 162. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: J.McNerney* (Raised: $1698K; CoH: $1247K). R: D.Harmer (Raised: $1816K; CoH: $233K).
54. IN-02 (Overall Rank: 59). PVI: R+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 160. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: J.Donnelly* (Raised: $1205K; CoH: $989K). R: J.Walorski (Raised: $565K; CoH: $303K).
55. ID-01 (Overall Rank: 60). PVI: R+18. Total Vulnerability Score: 155. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: W.Minnick* (Raised: $1813K; CoH: $1139K). R: R.Labrador (Raised: $286K; CoH: $69K).
56. TX-23 (Overall Rank: 61). PVI: R+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 155. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: C.Rodriguez* (Raised: $1147K; CoH: $702K). R: F.Canseco (Raised: $1008K; CoH: $453K).
57. AZ-08 (Overall Rank: 62). PVI: R+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 155. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: G.Giffords* (Raised: $2364K; CoH: $1923K). R: J.Kelly (Raised: $568K; CoH: $79K).
58. NY-20 (Overall Rank: 63). PVI: R+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 147. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: S.Murphy* (Raised: $4407K; CoH: $1453K). R: C.Gibson (Raised: $854K; CoH: $327K).
59. GA-02 (Overall Rank: 64). PVI: R+1. Total Vulnerability Score: 147. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: S.Bishop* (Raised: $674K; CoH: $405K). R: M.Keown (Raised: $491K; CoH: $238K).
60. MA-10 (Overall Rank: 66). PVI: D+5. Total Vulnerability Score: 140. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: B.Keating (Raised: $656K; CoH: $364K). R: J.Perry (Raised: $517K; CoH: $128K).
61. MO-04 (Overall Rank: 67). PVI: R+14. Total Vulnerability Score: 140. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: I.Skelton* (Raised: $1941K; CoH: $1370K). R: V.Hartzler (Raised: $498K; CoH: $242K).
62. VA-09 (Overall Rank: 68). PVI: R+10. Total Vulnerability Score: 140. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: R.Boucher* (Raised: $1537K; CoH: $2010K). R: M.Griffith (Raised: $403K; CoH: $297K).
63. KY-06 (Overall Rank: 69). PVI: R+9. Total Vulnerability Score: 140. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: B.Chandler* (Raised: $906K; CoH: $1749K). R: A.Barr (Raised: $812K; CoH: $361K).
64. PA-12 (Overall Rank: 70). PVI: E. Total Vulnerability Score: 140. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: M.Critz* (Raised: $1490K; CoH: $166K). R: T.Burns (Raised: $1827K; CoH: $163K).
65. FL-22 (Overall Rank: 71). PVI: D+1. Total Vulnerability Score: 140. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: R.Klein* (Raised: $2514K; CoH: $2841K). R: A.West (Raised: $4009K; CoH: $2249K).
66. NJ-03 (Overall Rank: 72). PVI: D+1. Total Vulnerability Score: 140. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: J.Adler* (Raised: $2456K; CoH: $1947K). R: J.Runyan (Raised: $654K; CoH: $472K).
67. NM-01 (Overall Rank: 73). PVI: D+4. Total Vulnerability Score: 140. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: M.Heinrich* (Raised: $1806K; CoH: $1302K). R: J.Barela (Raised: $770K; CoH: $537K).
68. OH-13 (Overall Rank: 74). PVI: D+6. Total Vulnerability Score: 140. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: B.Sutton* (Raised: $930K; CoH: $593K). R: T.Ganley (Raised: $6669K; CoH: $2691K).
69. NY-01 (Overall Rank: 75). PVI: D+1. Total Vulnerability Score: 132. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: T.Bishop* (Raised: $1886K; CoH: $1539K). R: R.Altschuler (Raised: $2890K; CoH: $1301K).
70. TN-04 (Overall Rank: 76). PVI: R+12. Total Vulnerability Score: 125. Consensus Rating: Lean R Hold. D: L.Davis* (Raised: $789K; CoH: $472K). R: S.DesJarlais (Raised: $322K; CoH: $24K).
71. NY-23 (Overall Rank: 78). PVI: R+1. Total Vulnerability Score: 125. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: B.Owens* (Raised: $2233K; CoH: $600K). R: D.Hoffman/ M.Doheny (Raised: $0K; CoH: $0K).
72. OR-05 (Overall Rank: 79). PVI: D+1. Total Vulnerability Score: 125. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: K.Schrader* (Raised: $1219K; CoH: $915K). R: S.Bruun (Raised: $471K; CoH: $178K).
73. WA-02 (Overall Rank: 80). PVI: D+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 125. Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold. D: R.Larsen* (Raised: $1116K; CoH: $864K). R: J.Koster (Raised: $424K; CoH: $127K).
74. MI-09 (Overall Rank: 82). PVI: D+1. Total Vulnerability Score: 110. Consensus Rating: Lean/Likely D Hold. D: G.Peters* (Raised: $2331K; CoH: $1928K). R: A.Raczkowski (Raised: $841K; CoH: $215K).
75. VA-11 (Overall Rank: 83). PVI: D+1. Total Vulnerability Score: 110. Consensus Rating: Lean/Likely D Hold. D: G.Connolly* (Raised: $1740K; CoH: $1274K). R: K.Fimian (Raised: $1175K; CoH: $272K).
76. CA-47 (Overall Rank: 84). PVI: D+5. Total Vulnerability Score: 110. Consensus Rating: Lean/Likely D Hold. D: Lo.Sanchez* (Raised: $1313K; CoH: $1268K). R: V.Tran (Raised: $729K; CoH: $288K).
77. NY-13 (Overall Rank: 85). PVI: R+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 95. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: M.McMahon* (Raised: $2113K; CoH: $1097K). R: M.Grimm (Raised: $796K; CoH: $385K).
78. CT-04 (Overall Rank: 86). PVI: D+5. Total Vulnerability Score: 95. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: J.Himes* (Raised: $2643K; CoH: $1887K). R: D.Debicella (Raised: $820K; CoH: $493K).
79. NC-11 (Overall Rank: 87). PVI: R+7. Total Vulnerability Score: 80. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: H.Shuler* (Raised: $880K; CoH: $1429K). R: J.Miller (Raised: $276K; CoH: $65K).
80. PA-04 (Overall Rank: 88). PVI: R+6. Total Vulnerability Score: 80. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: J.Altmire* (Raised: $1931K; CoH: $1466K). R: K.Rothfus (Raised: $563K; CoH: $202K).
81. PA-17 (Overall Rank: 89). PVI: R+6. Total Vulnerability Score: 80. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: T.Holden* (Raised: $939K; CoH: $884K). R: D.Argall (Raised: $205K; CoH: $29K).
82. WV-03 (Overall Rank: 90). PVI: R+5. Total Vulnerability Score: 80. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: N.Rahall* (Raised: $809K; CoH: $1588K). R: E.Maynard (Raised: $186K; CoH: $115K).
83. MN-01 (Overall Rank: 92). PVI: R+1. Total Vulnerability Score: 80. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: T.Walz* (Raised: $1457K; CoH: $832K). R: R.Demmer (Raised: $419K; CoH: $222K).
84. KY-03 (Overall Rank: 93). PVI: D+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 80. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: J.Yarmuth* (Raised: $997K; CoH: $600K). R: T.Lally (Raised: $380K; CoH: $269K).
85. NY-25 (Overall Rank: 94). PVI: D+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 80. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: D.Maffei* (Raised: $2273K; CoH: $1160K). R: A.Buerkle (Raised: $340K; CoH: $182K).
86. WI-03 (Overall Rank: 95). PVI: D+4. Total Vulnerability Score: 80. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: R.Kind* (Raised: $1216K; CoH: $1273K). R: D.Kapanke (Raised: $685K; CoH: $322K).
87. OH-06 (Overall Rank: 97). PVI: R+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 65. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: C.Wilson* (Raised: $594K; CoH: $608K). R: B.Johnson (Raised: $305K; CoH: $148K).
88. CT-05 (Overall Rank: 98). PVI: D+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 65. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: C.Murphy* (Raised: $2089K; CoH: $1491K). R: S.Caliguri (Raised: $593K; CoH: $80K).
89. CO-07 (Overall Rank: 99). PVI: D+4. Total Vulnerability Score: 65. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: E.Perlmutter* (Raised: $1539K; CoH: $1283K). R: R.Frazier (Raised: $876K; CoH: $252K).
90. RI-01 (Overall Rank: 101). PVI: D+14. Total Vulnerability Score: 60. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: D.Ciccilline (Raised: $1356K; CoH: $446K). R: J.Loughlin (Raised: $470K; CoH: $67K).
91. MS-04 (Overall Rank: 105). PVI: R+19. Total Vulnerability Score: 50. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: G.Taylor* (Raised: $456K; CoH: $347K). R: S.Palazzo (Raised: $223K; CoH: $26K).
92. IL-08 (Overall Rank: 106). PVI: R+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 50. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: M.Bean* (Raised: $1628K; CoH: $1171K). R: J.Walsh (Raised: $317K; CoH: $30K).
93. CA-18 (Overall Rank: 107). PVI: D+4. Total Vulnerability Score: 50. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: D.Cardoza* (Raised: $807K; CoH: $575K). R: M.Berryhill (Raised: $790K; CoH: $131K).
94. CA-20 (Overall Rank: 108). PVI: D+6. Total Vulnerability Score: 50. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: J.Costa* (Raised: $854K; CoH: $337K). R: J.Vidak (Raised: $231K; CoH: $48K).
95. IA-02 (Overall Rank: 109). PVI: D+7. Total Vulnerability Score: 50. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: D.Loebsack* (Raised: $643K; CoH: $524K). R: M.Miller-Meeks (Raised: $318K; CoH: $104K).
96. NC-07 (Overall Rank: 111). PVI: R+5. Total Vulnerability Score: 45. Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold. D: M.McIntyre* (Raised: $722K; CoH: $842K). R: I.Pantano (Raised: $321K; CoH: $99K).
97. AR-04 (Overall Rank: 112). PVI: R+6. Total Vulnerability Score: 35. Consensus Rating: . D: M.Ross* (Raised: $1561K; CoH: $1148K). R: B.Rankin (Raised: $147K; CoH: $69K).
98. GA-12 (Overall Rank: 113). PVI: D+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 35. Consensus Rating: . D: J.Barrow* (Raised: $1345K; CoH: $655K). R: R.McKinney (Raised: $135K; CoH: $77K).
99. IA-01 (Overall Rank: 114). PVI: D+5. Total Vulnerability Score: 35. Consensus Rating: . D: B.Braley* (Raised: $1067K; CoH: $632K). R: B.Lange (Raised: $168K; CoH: $110K).
100. NC-02 (Overall Rank: 116). PVI: R+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 30. Consensus Rating: . D: B.Etheridge* (Raised: $909K; CoH: $1208K). R: R.Ellmers (Raised: $188K; CoH: $46K).
101. OR-01 (Overall Rank: 117). PVI: D+7. Total Vulnerability Score: 30. Consensus Rating: . D: D.Wu* (Raised: $973K; CoH: $627K). R: R.Cornilles (Raised: $607K; CoH: $256K).
102. UT-02 (Overall Rank: 119). PVI: R+15. Total Vulnerability Score: 15. Consensus Rating: . D: J.Matheson* (Raised: $1358K; CoH: $1041K). R: M.Philpot (Raised: $112K; CoH: $58K).
103. ME-02 (Overall Rank: 120). PVI: D+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 15. Consensus Rating: . D: M.Michaud* (Raised: $761K; CoH: $668K). R: J.Levesque (Raised: $243K; CoH: $57K).
104. NJ-12 (Overall Rank: 122). PVI: D+6. Total Vulnerability Score: 15. Consensus Rating: . D: R.Holt* (Raised: $1193K; CoH: $1061K). R: S.Sipprelle (Raised: $830K; CoH: $490K).
105. NY-22 (Overall Rank: 123). PVI: D+6. Total Vulnerability Score: 15. Consensus Rating: . D: M.Hinchey* (Raised: $586K; CoH: $267K). R: G.Phillips (Raised: $248K; CoH: $35K).
106. WA-09 (Overall Rank: 124). PVI: D+6. Total Vulnerability Score: 15. Consensus Rating: . D: A.Smith* (Raised: $603K; CoH: $444K). R: D.Muri (Raised: $94K; CoH: $1K).
107. ME-01 (Overall Rank: 125). PVI: D+7. Total Vulnerability Score: 15. Consensus Rating: . D: C.Pingree* (Raised: $670K; CoH: $361K). R: D.Scontras (Raised: $152K; CoH: $67K).
108. NY-04 (Overall Rank: 126). PVI: D+7. Total Vulnerability Score: 15. Consensus Rating: . D: C.McCarthy* (Raised: $1344K; CoH: $771K). R: F.Becker (Raised: $88K; CoH: $25K).
109. MO-03 (Overall Rank: 127). PVI: D+8. Total Vulnerability Score: 15. Consensus Rating: . D: R.Carnahan* (Raised: $1218K; CoH: $666K). R: E.Martin (Raised: $835K; CoH: $582K).
110. MA-05 (Overall Rank: 128). PVI: D+8. Total Vulnerability Score: 15. Consensus Rating: . D: N.Tsongas* (Raised: $1370K; CoH: $517K). R: J.Golnik (Raised: $226K; CoH: $78K).
GOP Seats
1. DE-AL (Overall Rank: 6). PVI: D+6. Total Vulnerability Score: 315. Consensus Rating: Lean D Takeover. D: J.Carney (Raised: $1502K; CoH: $904K). R: G.Urquhart (Raised: $708K; CoH: $194K).
2. LA-02 (Overall Rank: 8). PVI: D+25. Total Vulnerability Score: 315. Consensus Rating: Lean D Takeover. D: C.Richmond (Raised: $507K; CoH: $166K). R: J.Cao* (Raised: $1462K; CoH: $301K).
3. HI-01 (Overall Rank: 31). PVI: D+9. Total Vulnerability Score: 228. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: C.Hanabusa (Raised: $1704K; CoH: $410K). R: C.Djou* (Raised: $1683K; CoH: $428K).
4. IL-10 (Overall Rank: 37). PVI: D+4. Total Vulnerability Score: 220. Consensus Rating: Tossup. D: D.Seals (Raised: $1694K; CoH: $792K). R: R.Dold (Raised: $1499K; CoH: $748K).
5. CA-03 (Overall Rank: 58). PVI: R+6. Total Vulnerability Score: 162. Consensus Rating: Lean R Hold. D: A.Bera (Raised: $1630K; CoH: $1140K). R: D.Lungren* (Raised: $1220K; CoH: $802K).
6. FL-25 (Overall Rank: 65). PVI: R+5. Total Vulnerability Score: 140. Consensus Rating: Lean R Hold. D: J.Garcia (Raised: $871K; CoH: $568K). R: D.Rivera (Raised: $1330K; CoH: $1156K).
7. PA-15 (Overall Rank: 77). PVI: D+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 125. Consensus Rating: Lean R Hold. D: J.Callahan (Raised: $1407K; CoH: $989K). R: C.Dent* (Raised: $1743K; CoH: $1043K).
8. WA-08 (Overall Rank: 81). PVI: D+3. Total Vulnerability Score: 110. Consensus Rating: Lean/Likely R Hold. D: S.Del Bene (Raised: $1698K; CoH: $916K). R: D.Reichert* (Raised: $1818K; CoH: $1006K).
9. PA-06 (Overall Rank: 91). PVI: D+4. Total Vulnerability Score: 80. Consensus Rating: Likely R Hold. D: M.Trivedi (Raised: $836K; CoH: $329K). R: J.Gerlach* (Raised: $1373K; CoH: $541K).
10. NE-02 (Overall Rank: 96). PVI: R+6. Total Vulnerability Score: 80. Consensus Rating: Likely R Hold. D: T.White (Raised: $675K; CoH: $532K). R: L.Terry* (Raised: $1305K; CoH: $787K).
11. MN-06 (Overall Rank: 100). PVI: R+6. Total Vulnerability Score: 65. Consensus Rating: Likely R Hold. D: T.Clark (Raised: $2412K; CoH: $798K). R: M.Bachmann* (Raised: $4585K; CoH: $2406K).
12. OH-12 (Overall Rank: 102). PVI: E. Total Vulnerability Score: 60. Consensus Rating: Likely R Hold. D: P.Brooks (Raised: $994K; CoH: $683K). R: P.Tiberi* (Raised: $2118K; CoH: $1902K).
13. CA-45 (Overall Rank: 103). PVI: R+2. Total Vulnerability Score: 60. Consensus Rating: Likely R Hold. D: S.Pougnet (Raised: $1268K; CoH: $878K). R: M.Bono-Mack* (Raised: $1732K; CoH: $1242K).
14. AZ-03 (Overall Rank: 104). PVI: R+7. Total Vulnerability Score: 50. Consensus Rating: Likely R Hold. D: J.Hulburd (Raised: $778K; CoH: $428K). R: B.Quayle (Raised: $1344K; CoH: $429K).
15. FL-12 (Overall Rank: 110). PVI: R+5. Total Vulnerability Score: 45. Consensus Rating: Likely R Hold. D: L.Edwards (Raised: $346K; CoH: $103K). R: D.Ross (Raised: $811K; CoH: $403K).
16. AL-05 (Overall Rank: 115). PVI: R+11. Total Vulnerability Score: 30. Consensus Rating: . D: S.Raby (Raised: $458K; CoH: $111K). R: M.Brooks (Raised: $447K; CoH: $259K).
17. MI-03 (Overall Rank: 118). PVI: R+7. Total Vulnerability Score: 15. Consensus Rating: . D: P.Miles (Raised: $318K; CoH: $227K). R: J.Amash (Raised: $379K; CoH: $112K).
18. CA-44 (Overall Rank: 121). PVI: R+5. Total Vulnerability Score: 15. Consensus Rating: . D: B.Hedrick (Raised: $368K; CoH: $149K). R: K.Calvert* (Raised: $1369K; CoH: $681K).