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With just about a month to go, it's time for the FINAL round of my Congressional Races series.  This will just be updates of my previous series, but a lot has changed.

Today: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona and Arkansas

AL: 7 CDs, 4 Rep  3 Dem.  Vul: Bright (D) in AL-02.  

AK:  1 CD, a Rep, does not look vulnerable

AZ:  8 CDs, 3 Rep., 5 Dem; vulnerable AZ-01 (D)  Possibly AZ-03 (R), AZ-05 (D)

AR: 4 CDs, 1 Rep., 3 Dem.; AR-1 and AR-2 are vulnerable, both now D

Sources:
House vote in 2008 from Wikipedia
VoteView (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)
Race Tracker
Obama vote by CD from Swing State (other stuff there too).
and my previous diaries.
FEC
and Steve Singiser's diaries here on daily Kos (which I checked for about a month).

=========================================================================
District: AL-01
Location : the southwest part of AL, bordering MS, FL, and the Gulf of Mexico.  It has a weird finger taken out of it, that is part of AL-07 map
Cook PVI R + 14
Representative Jo Bonner (R)
VoteView ranking 310/447  
First elected  2002
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin 68-32
2004 margin 63-37
Obama margin 2008 39-61
 Bush margin 2004 64-35
Current opponents Bonner won the primary, and has no Democratic opposition.
Demographics A low-income ($34K, rank = 345), rural (36%, rank = 100), conservative district
Assessment No opponent.

District: AL-02
Location The southeast quarter of AL, bordering FL and GA, and including Montgomery map
Cook PVI R + 16
Representative Bobby Bright (D)
VoteView rating NA
First elected  2008
2008 margin 50-50; 1,700 votes of 485,000 cast
2006 margin NA
2004 margin 71-28
Obama margin 2008 39-61
 Bush margin 2004 67-33
Current opponents  Martha Roby (establishment) and Rick Barber (Tea Party) are in a runoff to face Bright in November
Demographics Similar to the 1st, but poorer (med income = $32K, rank = 378) and more rural (50%, rank = 48th).
Assessment This was open in 2008, as Terry Everitt retired. As of 6/30, Bright had $734K cash on hand (COH) and minor debts.  Roby had $121K COH.  UPDATE A new Democratic poll finds Bright up 52-43
SSP rating  Tossup
My assessment: Lean D.  More money, incumbency, but a Republican district.

District: AL-03
Location Most of the eastern part of AL, bordering GA, including Talladega and Tuskegee map
Cook PVI R + 9
Representative Mike Rogers (R)
VoteView rating 299/447
First elected 2002
2008 margin 53-47 over Joshua Segall
2006 margin 59-38
2004 margin 61-39
Obama margin 2008 43-56
 Bush margin 2004 58-41
Current opponents Joshua Segall has dropped out. No other opponent.
Demographics Like the 1st and 2nd, but even more so.  Median income is $31K (rank = 400); 32.2% Black (rank = 41st).  
Assessment No opponent.

District: AL-04
Location Northern AL, but south of AL-05, runs from MS to GA map.
Cook PVI R + 26
Representative Robert Aderholt (R)
VoteView rating 311/447
First elected  1996
2008 margin 75-25 over Nicholas Sparks
2006 margin 70-30
2004 margin 75-25
Obama margin 2008 23-76
 Bush margin 2004 71-28
Current opponents None declared.
Demographics The second most rural district in the country (73.5%) (only KY-05 is more rural).
Assessment No opponent.

District: AL-05
Location The northernmost part of AL, running from MS to GA, and borders TN.  Includes Huntsville and Decautur map
Cook PVI R + 12
Representative Parker Griffith (D) but now R
VoteView rating NA
First elected  2008
2008 margin 52-48
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 2008 38-61
 Bush margin 2004 60-39
Current opponents Mo Brooks beat Griffith in the Republican primary.  Steve Raby won easily on the Democratic side.
Demographics Not quite as poor as other AL districts.
Assessment   As of 6/30, Raby had about $111K COH, Brooks about $260K, both with considerable debt.  
SSP rating Likely R.
My rating: Lean R.  Raby isn't raising money.

District: AL-06
Location More or less the middle of the state, but shaped like a V to allow AL-07 to include as many Blacks as possible map
Cook PVI  R + 29
Representative Spencer Bacchus (R)
VoteView rating 333/447
First elected  1992
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin unopposed
Obama margin 2008 23-76
 Bush margin 2004 78-22
 Notes on opponents none
Current opponents  Bachus won his primary easily.  No Democrats are running.
Demographics One of the most Republican district per Cook PVI, only UT-03 is more so, and only TX-11, TX-13 and TX-19 are equally so
Assessment No opponent.

District: AL-07
Location Mostly in western AL, bordering MS, this district has two 'fingers' to include more Blacks map
Cook PVI D + 18
Representative Artur Davis Retiring to run for governor
VoteView rating NA
First elected  NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin 75-25
Obama margin 2008 61-39
 Bush margin 2004 35-64
 Notes on opponents Don Chamberlain
Current opponents Terri Sewell won the primary in this safe D seat.
Demographics The majority Black district in AL, it's got the 5th highest percentage of Blacks of any district in the USA (61.7%) (more so are IL-01, IL-02, LA-02 and MS-02) and the 5th lowest median income ($27K) (lower are CA-31, KY-05, NY-16 and WV-03)
Assessment Sewell has $82K COH, after raising over $1 million. Chamberlain has little.
My assessment: Safe

District:  AK-AL
Location You know where Alaska is!
Cook PVI R + 13
Representative Don Young (R)
VoteView ranking 320/447
First elected  1973
2008 margin 50-45
2006 margin 57-40
2004 margin 71-22
Obama margin 2008 39-61
Bush margin 2004 61-36
Current opponents Harry Crawford.
Demographics Alaska has a higher percentage of veterans than most places (16.4%, 30th place); it's also about the 50th most Republican district, in national races.
Assessment  As of 8/04 Young had $223K COH, and Crawford had $25K. Steve Singiser found a poll on 9/30 that had Young up by 2-1
My assessment: Safe

District: AZ-01
Location  The northeastern three-quarters of the state, bordering UT and CO, with a chunk missing: map
Cook PVI R + 6
Representative Ann Kirkpatrick(D)
VoteView ranking 270/447  (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)
First elected  2008
2008 margin 56-40 over Sydney Hay
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 2008 44-54
Bush margin 2004 54-46
Current opponents  Paul Gosar.
Demographics Poorer (median income is $33K, about 371st place;  and more rural (44.5%, 363rd place) than most districts; 10th highest percentage of people who are neither White, Black, nor Latino (22.1% Native American)
Assessment Renzi (R) retired, and Kirkpatrick won fairly easily.
As of 8/04, Kirkpatrick has $870K COH and Gosar $40K.    Could be vulnerable, but McCain's total (and therefore the Cook PVI) was inflated by favorite son effect. A Democratic internal poll from late August found Kirkpatrick up 43-39, but a Republican poll from early September found it even.
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating: Likely D.  Kirkpatrick has lots more money, is the incumbent, and even the R poll found it even.

District: AZ-02
Location An oddly shaped district, it includes the northwest part of the state (bordering NV and UT) and a blob in the northern middle of the state, connected by a strand (this is tribal gerrymandering, separating two Native American groups), and another blob that reaches to the western suburbs of Phoenix: map
Cook PVI R + 13
Representative Trent Franks (R)
VoteView ranking 442/447  
First elected  2002
2008 margin 60-37 over John Thrasher
2006 margin 59-39
2004 margin 59-39
Obama margin 2008 38-61
Bush margin 2004 61-38
Current opponents John Thrasher.  
Demographics Only 7 districts have more veterans.
Assessment  As of 8/04 Thrasher had about $8K COH, Franks only $61K, with more than that in debt.
My rating: Safe

District: AZ-03
Location North of Phoenix, including Paradise Valley and Carefree: map
Cook PVI R + 9
Representative  John Shadegg (R) Retiring
VoteView ranking NA
First elected  1994
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 2008 42-57
Bush margin 2004 58-41
Current opponents For the Democrats:
Jon Hulbard is running. For the Republicans: Ben Quayle (Dan's son).
Demographics Not unusual on any of the statistics I track
Assessment This is Republican territory, but not overwhelmingly; Shadegg is a real rightwinger, but Lord lost in 2008.
As of 8/04 Hulbard had about $425K, Quayle about the same.
SSP rating: Likely R
My rating: Likely R

District: AZ-04
Location Phoenix and Glendale: map
Cook PVI D + 13
Representative Ed Pastor (D)
VoteView ranking 65/447  
First elected  1991
2008 margin 72-21 over Don Karg
2006 margin 73-24
2004 margin 70-26
Obama margin 2008 66-33
Bush margin 2004 38-62
Current opponents Janet Contreras.
Demographics Poor (median income = $31K, rank = 402) and with a huge Latino population (58%, rank = 20).
Assessment As of 8/04, Pastor had over $1.5 million COH, Contreras very little.
My assessment: Safe.

District: AZ-05
Location East and north of Phoenix, including Tempe: map
Cook PVI R + 5
Representative  Harry Mitchell (D)
VoteView ranking 230/447  
First elected  2006
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin 53-45 over David Schweikert.
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 2008 47-52
Bush margin 2004 54-45
Current opponents David Schweikert again.    
Demographics Relatively wealthy (median income = $52K, rank = 83), with a high proportion of people who are neither White, Black, nor Latino (7.2%, rank = 134; including 3.3% Asian and 1.8% Native American).  
Assessment Mitchell beat Schweikert as a freshman, he should do so again, but this is not a shoo-in.   As of 8/04, Mitchell has $835K COH. Schweikert $225K COH; and tons of debt. Steve Singiser found a Democratic internal poll on 9/29 that showed Mitchell up by 3, but a Republican internal poll found Schwekert up by 8.
SSP rating: Tossup.
My rating: Lean D.  This may be a more R year than 2008, but not by this much, and not in this state.  

District: AZ-06
Location In the southeastern part of AZ, but not bordering any other state: map  
Cook PVI R + 15
Representative Jeff Flake (R)
VoteView ranking 445/447  
First elected  2000
2008 margin 62-35 over Rebecca Schneider
2006 margin 75-25 (against a Libertarian)
2004 margin 79-21 (against a Libertarian)
Obama margin 2008 38-61
Bush margin 2004 64-35
Current opponents Schneider is running again.
Demographics Lots of veterans (15.8%, rank = 45) and Latinos (17.2%, rank = 105).
Assessment This is a longshot; Flake is crazy, and wins easily.  But I really like Schneider; I like her website (see above) and I like how she answered my questions here on dailyKos.  As of 8/04, Flake had around $800K COH, no info on Schneider
My rating: Safe

District: AZ-07
Location Southwestern AZ, bordering CA and Mexico: map
Cook PVI D + 6
Representative Raul Grijalva (D)
VoteView ranking 24/447  (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)
First elected  2002
2008 margin 63-33 over John Sweeney
2006 margin 61-34
2004 margin 62-34
Obama margin 2008 57-42
Bush margin 2004 43-57
Current opponents Ruth McClung
Demographics Very poor (median income $31K, rank = 10) and mostly Latino (50.6%, rank = 23)
Assessment As of 8/04 Grijalva had only about $80K COH, and McClung has even less.  A poll on 9/29 found Grijalva up by only 8, but it was an unknown and Repub. pollster
My rating: Likely D

District: AZ-08
Location The southeast corner of AZ, bordering Mexico and NM: map
Cook PVI R + 4
Representative Gabrielle Gifford (D)
VoteView ranking 231/447  (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)
First elected  2006
2008 margin 55-43 over Tim Bee
2006 margin 54-42
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 2008 46-52
Bush margin 2004 53-46
Current opponents Jesse Kelly.
Demographics Another district with a lot of veterans (19.1%, rank = 20)
Assessment  Giffords has now won twice, and should be OK again.  As of 8/04, she had nearly $2 million COH.  Kelly about $80K.
SSP rating: Lean D
My rating: Likely D,  McCain got less than Bush (despite native son effect) and Giffords seems popular.

District: AR-01
Location The northeast portion of AR, including Jonesboro, bordering MO, TN, and MS: map
Cook PVI R + 8
Representative Marion Berry (D) Retiring
VoteView ranking NA
First elected  NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 2008 44-54
Bush margin 2004 52-47
Current opponents For the Democrats: Chad Causey.  For the Republicans: Rick Crawford http://www.meetrickcrawford.com/...
Demographics One of the most rural (55.5%, rank = 26) and poorest (median income = $29K, rank = 417) districts.
Assessment Berry's retirement makes this a very vulnerable seat.  As of 6/30 Crawford had $213K COH, but $70K of debt.  Causey had $90K COH, but more than that in debt.
SSP rating: Tossup.
My rating: Lean R.

District: AR-02
Location The middle of the state, including Little Rock: map
Cook PVI R + 5
Representative Vic Snyder (D) Retiring
VoteView ranking NA
First elected  NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 2008 44-54
Bush margin 2004 51-48
Current opponents For the Democrats: Joyce Elliot looks very good.  For the Republicans: Tim Griffin  seems to be pretending to be a moderate, while espousing all the conservative talking points.
Demographics Not unusual on anything I track
Assessment Snyder won easily in the past, but now it's open.  As of 6/30, Griffin has about $315K COH, but $80K in debt; Elliot about $100K.
SSP has this as tossup, and that sounds right to me.

District: AR-03
Location Northwestern AR, including Fayetteville, bordering MO and OK: map
Cook PVI R + 16
Representative John Boozman (R) Retiring to run for Senate
VoteView ranking NA
First elected  NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 2008 34-63
Bush margin 2004 62-36
Current opponents Democrats: David Whitaker looks like a moderate.
Republicans: Steve Womack is a rightwinger
Demographics Not unusual on anything I track
Assessment As of 6/30 neither Whitaker nor Womack had much COH.  This looks like a Republican seat.

District: AR-04
Location Southern AR bordering LA, TX and OK: map
Cook PVI R + &
Representative Mike Ross (D)
VoteView ranking 213/447  
First elected  2000
2008 margin 86-14 against Joshua Drake (Green)
2006 margin 75-25
2004 margin unopposed
Obama margin 2008 39-58
Bush margin 2004 51-48
Current opponents Beth Rankin.
Demographics Poor (median income = $30K, rank = 124), Black (24.4%, rank = 66) and rural (55.3% rank = 28)
Assessment Safe; as of 6/30 Ross, a moderate 'blue dog' has over $1 million COH, Rankin has less than $100K.
My rating: Safe

Originally posted to plf515 on Tue Oct 05, 2010 at 02:41 AM PDT.

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