We are now three weeks running with 52 Democratic seats (including Sanders and Lieberman) as the most likely outcome in the 2010 Senate elections:
Senate Competitive Seats Chart
Seat Outcome Odds Chart
Here are the specific numbers for each possible outcome, if the election were held today:
Number of Democratic Seats
- 0.00000024% (1 in 416,666,667)
- 0.00029% (1 in 344,828)
- 0.013% (1 in 7,692)
- 0.27% (1 in 370)
54: 2.8% (1 in 36)
53: 14.9% (1 in 7)
52: 34.5% (1 in 3)
51: 32.7% (1 in 3)
50: 12.9% (1 in 8)
49: 1.8% (1 in 56)
- 0.1% (1 in 1,000)
- 0.0013% (1 in 76,923)
I highlighted what I consider to be the “realistic” outcomes in bold. Unless something big changes, and fast, the best case scenario for Democrats in the 2010 elections is narrow control of the House, 54 seats in the Senate, and strong filibuster reform.
Some may look at these numbers and get depressed. Others may just grow mad at me. Personally, when I see the long odds of Democrats winning 55 or more seats, it actually makes me a little hopeful. Those chances may be long, but they are not zero. So, no matter how bad things become, to quote Dr. Egon Spengler, "there's definitely a very slim chance we'll survive."
Notes
--Polling is not a conspiracy designed to manipulate your emotions.
--Polling averages don’t suck. They are quite accurate.
Actual Notes
--This is a snapshot, not a forecast. All of the odds presented here are based on if the election were held today. It is not a prediction of future trends.
--Only campaigns within 14% are listed. If a campaign isn't listed here, then it is not currently as close as any of the campaigns listed here.
--Lisa Murkowski’s odds of victory are included in the overall GOP total. Charlie Crist’s odds are split evenly between Democrats and Republicans.
--With few exceptions, all polls used in the averages are taken from Pollster.com.
--A complete description of the methodology behind this snapshot, along with all the research and a FAQ, can be found here.