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The reviews (all five of them) are in, and the new look of the Wrap has passed muster. So we press on with a new look, and it couldn't come soon enough. A numerical blizzard hits the Wrap today, with 35 polls to peruse.

The GOP goes for the big surprise with a couple of outlandish looking internal polls, while the public polling starts to look incrementally better in most cases for the Democrats. Rasmussen, meanwhile, offers its weekly double dose of data, as polls in their name, and polls via their subsidiary relationship with Fox News, hit the streets today.

All that (and more!) as we are now T-minus four weeks with the Tuesday edition of the Wrap...

THE U.S. SENATE

THE ANALYSIS: Take the Illinois poll with a lot of salt: not only is it the first poll since forever to show either candidate with a lead of any size, but it is an internal for the Kirk campaign. Aside from that, we get our first poll in Indiana in a while, and it is another sign that the Industrial Midwest might be the toughest territory for the Democrats come November. Yet another poll confirms that the myth of the toss-up in Connecticut is just that...a myth. For the second or third poll in a row, the California Senate race is actually closer than the gubernatorial election, a sign either that Carly Fiorina is starting to wage a bounceback, or a sign that Meg Whitman has really hit the skids.

THE U.S. HOUSE

THE ANALYSIS: The Florida internal has to be unsettling for Democrats, as longtime incumbent Allen Boyd has not been severely tested in several cycles. This is the second such GOP poll purporting to have a double-digit lead for Southerland. The silence from the Boyd side of the polling ledger is pretty troubling. Meanwhile, Chris Carney clings to a lead in the competitive 10th district in the Keystone State, and if the new poll contracted by two Dem-friendly interest groups is legit, Tom Perriello might not be dead after all. Given that SUSA has had him getting whaled on, and Dem polls have had it within the margin of error, it is apparent that someone is going to have a lot of 'splaining to do on November 3rd.

THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES

THE ANALYSIS: The Texas poll is a public poll for KENS-TV, and there appears to be a difference between "Public Strategies" and the GOP firm "Public Opinion Strategies." That is a far wider margin than any other pollster has indicated in the Lone Star State. Frank Caprio seems to be pulling out to a bit of lead in Rhode Island, but there are still a ton of undecideds there. Florida looks like it is shifting a little bit, and that is bad news for the Democrats. California is heading along the opposite vector, as evidenced from Meg Whitman's campaign hyping internal polls showing her down by "only two points."

THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA

As always, anyone needing to hear it straight from the Rassie's mouth can click the link. We get the double-up from the House of Ras today, with their main polling service and their subsidiary's spate of polls for Fox News littering the streets. Aside from a Connecticut poll which kills the "McMahon-mentum" theme, the House of Ras is mostly in their accustomed position as a Dem buzzkill. Note, however, that even the Ras-sites concede that the Maryland Governor's race is starting to get away from them.

AZ-Gov: Gov. Jan Brewer (R) 55%, Terry Goddard (D) 39%
CA-Sen: Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) 49%, Carly Fiorina (R) 45%
CO-Sen: Ken Buck (R) 50%, Sen. Michael Bennet (D) 45%
CT-Gov: Dan Malloy (D) 47%, Tom Foley (R) 41%*
CT-Sen: Richard Blumenthal (D) 52%, Linda McMahon (R) 42%*
IL-Sen: Mark Kirk (R) 45%, Alexi Giannoulias (D) 41%
MD-Gov: Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) 49%, Robert Ehrlich (R) 41%
MO-Sen: Roy Blunt (R) 50%, Robin Carnahan (D) 42%*
NV-Sen: Sharron Angle (R) 49%, Sen. Harry Reid (D) 46%*
OH-Gov: John Kasich (R) 49%, Gov. Ted Strickland (D) 43%*
OH-Sen: Rob Portman (R) 53%, Lee Fisher (D) 37%*
WV-Sen: John Raese (R) 48%, Joe Manchin (D) 43%*

(*)--Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research Poll

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Tue Oct 05, 2010 at 07:46 PM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Brown 50 - Whitman 43 LURV it! nt (4+ / 0-)

    PropH8 drafter for CA Assembly? Help defeat Pugno. ActBlue

    by cooper888 on Tue Oct 05, 2010 at 07:47:27 PM PDT

  •  Losing the House would kill (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    eastvan

    I mean after all the hard work we put into finally winning it back in 2006 after 12 years.  Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.

    •  Consolation prize? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tmo

      Watching the Republican Party self destruct trying to keep any sense of a coalition together.

      IF Repugs were to [god forbid] win the House, there will be open warfare between the extremist loons and the what remains of moderates.

      http://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/10/3/907363/-Once-you-poison-the-well,-theres-no-turning-back.-

      by shpilk on Tue Oct 05, 2010 at 07:57:17 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Interesting how the Colorado numbers seem to be (0+ / 0-)

    returning to a semblance of reality. Perhaps the numbers swithch will flush Buck out of wherever he has been hidden and afford him an opportunity to speak out on some issues. Like Minimum wage. Maybe he  could start there......

    it tastes like burning...

    by eastvan on Tue Oct 05, 2010 at 07:51:03 PM PDT

    •  A lot of the stories the MSM has deemed us worthy (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Voodoo king, AZ Independent

      of being exposed to have, unually, had a fairly high GOP content. Talk of minimum wage, witchcraft, anything Carl Palodino says or does, lack of availibility for press 'talkies', Sharron Angles backroom dealing.....

      Shocking I tells ya.....They best be careful...that sort of attention could anger the GOP into once again leveling that devestating charge of the media being 'Librul'.....

      it tastes like burning...

      by eastvan on Tue Oct 05, 2010 at 07:58:01 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  PPP is the only major pollster to have Bennet up (0+ / 0-)

      http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

      ...and have had Bennet up each poll going back the entire year.

      Here we are now Entertain us I feel stupid and contagious

      by Scarce on Tue Oct 05, 2010 at 08:03:24 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  They were right too, about the primaries (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        askew, Byblis

        and the Huff Po was wrong.

        I've never believed a Buck lead, there are very few polls and Bennet seems much too little worried. Maybe he's just not the jumpy type, or maybe his polls are telling us something that we aren't hearing.

        Huff Po, Rasmusen, and any other former Repubs I take with extra salt and a little MSG.

        "slip now and you'll fall the rest of your life" Derek Hersey 1957-1993

        by ban nock on Tue Oct 05, 2010 at 08:07:28 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Maybe they are usin g methodolgy that is (0+ / 0-)

        producing a more consistant result.

        After this election cycle is over there will be a lot of discussion over the methods of many of the polls taken, including the 'likely voter' smoke and mirrors.

        it tastes like burning...

        by eastvan on Tue Oct 05, 2010 at 08:39:22 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Not fair (0+ / 0-)

        They haven't polled the race since before the primary. Buck has only shown strength in polls for the past couple months.

    •  The polls can no longer claim (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      714day, eastvan

      to be legitimate and still help to carry the media narrative.  it's always been stated here that the polls will come back to reality the closer we get to the election.  

  •  Paladino will be lucky to get 25% of the vote. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    eastvan, flhiii88

    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/10/3/907363/-Once-you-poison-the-well,-theres-no-turning-back.-

    by shpilk on Tue Oct 05, 2010 at 07:55:30 PM PDT

  •  tossup catergory.. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    eastvan, Corneliusmingus

    I think Colorado got moved from "leans republican" to "toss up" by RealClearPolitics.com

    •  definitely nice to see B leading, if only just (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Corneliusmingus

      this race is very much a tossup.  I think it stays that way to the end, UNLESS Buck can be made to say anything about anything.  

      Buck seems to be the most well-coached of this year's crazies, so I don't see him self-destructing.  Fortunately, there's more than enough implosion to spare in the Gov side, and in the end I think this helps Bennet over the line.  

  •  Hopefully, Paladino's batshittiness will have (0+ / 0-)

    a disastrous effect the GOP ticket.

    It is magnificent, but it is not war, it is madness. Pierre Bosquet on the charge of the Light Brigade

    by flhiii88 on Tue Oct 05, 2010 at 07:59:07 PM PDT

    •  *on the GOP ticket (0+ / 0-)

      It is magnificent, but it is not war, it is madness. Pierre Bosquet on the charge of the Light Brigade

      by flhiii88 on Tue Oct 05, 2010 at 07:59:36 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  No more, or less, than the rest (0+ / 0-)

      of the batshit crazy wing.......

      One would think that there would be a cumulative effect.....given it is a bountiful harvest of the crazy this year.... but it seems somewhat typical of the times that we have to wait to see if their overload of paranoid divisive nutty proves to be too much for the electorate to bear.

      When it should be no contest.

      I suggest this would be a good year to GOTV....

      it tastes like burning...

      by eastvan on Tue Oct 05, 2010 at 08:06:48 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  (FL-02) Boyd has a large cash advantage (0+ / 0-)

    Or at least did on 8/4/10:

    Boyd $762,201
    Southerland $84,504

    Boyd had already spent $2,177,163 to that date as well.

    http://query.nictusa.com/...

    Here we are now Entertain us I feel stupid and contagious

    by Scarce on Tue Oct 05, 2010 at 07:59:22 PM PDT

  •  YAY! Go TERRY! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, reddbierd
    Looks like Ras is giving Terry Goddard ground. Maybe he's only down 5???? If so, I hope he keeps up the ads; maybe we can dump Jan Brewer.

    If ya'll want a taste of why Jan and Republicans are the real death panels, check out my past two diaries on AZ-GOV. She's a morbid person.

    Good policy is good politics

    by AZ Independent on Tue Oct 05, 2010 at 07:59:34 PM PDT

  •  National Dem Lead 47-44 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Greasy Grant, flhiii88

    More good polling news came out for the Democrats today

  •  Love the new look! (3+ / 0-)

    Thanks for doing this!

    I think Obama is brilliant, I'm very proud of him.

    by Kiku on Tue Oct 05, 2010 at 08:03:05 PM PDT

  •  I'm not getting the "Big Ten" States at all. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    flhiii88

    Do they not realize that Bush is largely to blame for their States being in the mess they are in today?  Michigan, Ohio, Indiana, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Illinois are all trending Republican.  What in the hell is going on?

    Grassroot passion comes and goes - Corporate interest in consistent. Message being that if you want to stay elected then sell-out, it's safer.

    by Jonze on Tue Oct 05, 2010 at 08:06:26 PM PDT

    •  Not surprising. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      714day, Jonze

      I believe most, if not all of these heavily unionized states voted twice for St. Ronnie, the Union buster.

      It is magnificent, but it is not war, it is madness. Pierre Bosquet on the charge of the Light Brigade

      by flhiii88 on Tue Oct 05, 2010 at 08:10:38 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Minnesota is part of the big ten and is (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      NorthlandLiberal, Jonze

      going to elect a Dem Governor to go along with our two Dem Senators. Yes, we still have Bachmann, but she is our one lone nutty.

      President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

      by askew on Tue Oct 05, 2010 at 08:18:24 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  recurrent pattern in these states-- (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Jonze

      we think of them as reliably blue (except OH) because they have been in prez elections, but in off-years they've all voted in gopper govs and (except maybe MI) senators.  Don't know why that is, some interesting feature of midwest post-industrial malaise, but it's nothing new.

      And because that IS the pattern, the black-box gopper groups this year have absolutely poured $$ into these midwest races, knowing that's their best chance nationwide for pickups.  I think that's the main thing keeping it a tossup in IL.  Really none of the dem senate candidates have deep pockets this year, certainly not Sestak or (by choice) Feingold.

      Ohio is sort of a special case.  Seems like the democratic process has sort of broken down generally in that state.  

  •  off subject..but I voted today!!!! (4+ / 0-)

    My mom and me voted early here in Indiana today.

    •  Ours is coming soon! I can't wait! n/t (0+ / 0-)

      Good policy is good politics

      by AZ Independent on Tue Oct 05, 2010 at 08:11:32 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Well... (0+ / 0-)

        You know I hate to say it but I did split my ticket voting for two R's who actually went to trouble of asking for my vote. One gentleman who is a moderate helped me get a grant a couple of years ago to replace my furnace,it went out and I was only part time working then,he's running for county commission seat now. The other lady R is a city council member and really,really goes out of her way to help the down trodden in this little town of mine . Trust me we get into fierce debates over national /state offices  bot local officials can affect us much,much more then state or federal. However unfortunately niether of thse good R's ,and they are good ones,stand a chance in my county.
        I voted for Brad Ellesworth for seanate & Baron Hill for the 9th district . However Ellesworth has virtually no chance against Dan Coats ,the latter is still far better then any of the teabaggers he beat in the INdiana Senate Republican primary and I think Hill now pretty much has things coming his way. Will get a sign for my yard though.

  •  Boxer-Fiorina numbers worry me (0+ / 0-)

    Boxer cannot relent on the ads, and I wonder what Fiorina and NRSC is up to. I have a hunch they are trying to pull a fast one, by making a show of leaving CA early.

    You don't leave a candidate who is within striking distance unless you know something or they're going to spring something.

    Don't let yourself be limited by your prior concept of what is possible.

    by Fe Bongolan on Tue Oct 05, 2010 at 08:13:26 PM PDT

  •  WV - Fox (Cavuto) has been all over (0+ / 0-)

    that poll today.

    They are pretty giddy about it.

    •  Rasmussen is doing all the polling there (0+ / 0-)

      A slightly different voter screen with this one for Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research but they've polled West Virginia 6x in the last 2 months.

      PPP has polled it once, with Manchin down 3.

      Here we are now Entertain us I feel stupid and contagious

      by Scarce on Tue Oct 05, 2010 at 08:27:02 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Meek at 18%, no surprise there... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    flhiii88

    As a Floridian, I can say he is all but invisible to most people here.

    "We are a Plutocracy, we ought to face it. We need, desperately, to find new ways to hear independent voices & points of view" Ramsey Clark, US AG

    by Mr SeeMore on Tue Oct 05, 2010 at 08:22:17 PM PDT

    •  It's Zogby... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      flhiii88

      But I like it for the fact it has Rubio in the 30's.  Because it means that Crist could win if Meek dropped out. If Rubio is in the mid-40's it wouldn't matter if the Dems tried to go in that direction.  

      Grassroot passion comes and goes - Corporate interest in consistent. Message being that if you want to stay elected then sell-out, it's safer.

      by Jonze on Tue Oct 05, 2010 at 08:26:35 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  New Zogby poll (LV) has D/R even, last week R+5 (0+ / 0-)

    Zogby Interactive's latest poll of likely voters on the generic ballot has a 43-all tie. Last week, the GOP was ahead 46-41.

    http://zogby.com/...

    Many observers are skeptical of Zogby's internet methodology (an opt-in volunteer panel, then weighted post hoc to represent the electorate on demographics and party ID). It would seem, though, that as long as a constant methodology is being used, trends over time can be informative, even if one questions the exact numbers in any given week.

    •  Maybe, But.... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea

      Zogby Interactive has the worst accuracy rating, according to Nate's Pollster analysis from earlier in the year.

      "You share your young with the wolves of the nation...
      Theres nothing left til you pray for salvation"
      Black Rebel Motorcycle Club "American X"

      by Steve Singiser on Tue Oct 05, 2010 at 08:46:58 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Giannoulias better pull it out (0+ / 0-)

    I know the two polls shown here are biased but Nate just added them to his polling average so now it'll look like he's down more.

  •  It is up to US, not up to the campaigns (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Anthony Segredo, Corneliusmingus

    Nothing happens without grassroots....without public opinion.

    Polls were invented to shape public opinion anyhow.

    These polls are utterly depressing. We know that corporations are flooding money into negative campaigns against our side and that we don't have nearly enough money.

    I'd love to hear suggestions with links to what will work to get Dems elected.

    Media Reform Action Link http://stopbigmedia.com/

    by LNK on Tue Oct 05, 2010 at 08:53:23 PM PDT

    •  David Plouffe is running OFA (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew, Gator Keyfitz, LNK, dotster, ddn

      So just go onto the website and volunteer to phone bank. I was at the OFA office in Oakland yesterday, making calls to get out First Time Voters from 2008--and asking them if they supported Jerry Brown for Governor or Barbara Boxer for senate. And guess what? There was a woman there who tried to follow Move-on's advice and go volunteer for Boxer, and the campaign ignored her. And really, why shouldn't they? Plouffe has the golden lists, and is the numbers magician who engineered Obama's victory in the primaries and the general. I don't get why Move On doesn't just tell people to go straight to OFA--that way it's a unified ground game. Anyway, just go to the website, then click on your state, and find an event nearby. I've found it inspiring, and I'm trying to get friends to go.
      Organizing for America

      And check out this little pep talk from Plouffe. He's the master!

      Plouffe!

      Welcome to Berkeley: the Bitter Old Liberal Capital of the World!

      by MikeRayinBerkeley on Tue Oct 05, 2010 at 09:27:08 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  how come (0+ / 0-)

    ya only got 5 reviews?

    The Addington perpwalk is the trailhead for accountability in this wound on our national psyche. [...you know: Dick Cheney's "top" lawyer.] --Sachem

    by greenbird on Tue Oct 05, 2010 at 09:00:07 PM PDT

  •  Bennet in Colorado (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, Corneliusmingus

    has been hitting the airwaves with a hard hitting ad about Buck wanting to privatize Social Security.  Another ad from the DCC hit's Buck on his views on Woman and his position on no exceptions for abortion which ties right into the draconian ballot initiative for 'personhood' for the fetus. For those who think Dems are afraid to hit at the soft underbelly of the GOP 'wedge' issues, they better think again.

    Loyalty to petrified opinion never yet broke a chain or freed a human soul in this world--and never will. Mark Twain

    by whoknu on Tue Oct 05, 2010 at 09:02:12 PM PDT

  •  Has anyone noticed that the awful Gallup poll (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tmo, askew, Arnie, bridav58
    was taken over 11 days, from Sept. 23 - Oct. 3?

    http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/...

    Isn't that an unusually long time over which to conduct a poll?

  •  I like the new format a lot. In fact, (0+ / 0-)

    I "pre-liked" it:  http://www.dailykos.com/....  (That sounds very Minority Report-ish of me, doesn't it.)  I had a couple additional suggestions in that comment too, so just thought I'd refer to it.  Lesson to self: don't post on Saturday night...

  •  Mark McKinnon's Strategy Group did the Texas poll (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gator Keyfitz

    also their likely voter screen is suspect.

    All respondents were screened to ensure they are registered voters. To filter for likely voters, respondents were also screened to ensure they vote in most or all school, local and primary elections.  

    This poll is nothing more than an outlier in my opinion. The race is within the MOE. And remember, in Texas you don't need 50% to win.

    Wisdom does not come with age, but with understanding, judgement, and the ability to know fact from opinion.

    by 6thGenTexan on Tue Oct 05, 2010 at 10:17:26 PM PDT

  •  FL-02 (0+ / 0-)
    His name is STEVE Southerland, not Doug. He's my cousin and is going to kick some Boyd ass.
  •  martinez (R-GOV NM) taking calls 9am friday (0+ / 0-)

    on limbaugh station KKOB 770- phone number

    LISTENER HOTLINE: 243-3333 better
    toll free: 1-800-460-0770

    she's ahead in the polls- usually there's little call screening for the morning show w/bob clark- might be an op to get in a general point or two- like does she believe in global warming or is she just another   republican riding the limbaugh oil industry bandwagon.

    will she follow the arizona anti- immigration eg- she's leading in the polls and will get a lot of hispanic vote merely because of the name.

    Progressives will lose all major messaging battles until they picket the limbaugh/hannity megastations and boycott those stations' local sponsors.

    by certainot on Wed Oct 06, 2010 at 07:23:45 AM PDT

  •  Why whine about Rasmussen then do this? (0+ / 0-)

    Kos tells me Rasmussen polls are skewed toward Republicans yet Dkos constantly publicizes the polls. No Dem spine here? Stop posting their polls!

  •  Looks good! (0+ / 0-)

    A definite improvement on the old format. Great stuff!

    Being partisan and being right are not mutually exclusive.

    by DynamicUno on Wed Oct 06, 2010 at 09:03:16 AM PDT

  •  Indiana is not a bellweather for the midwest (0+ / 0-)

    This state is very insular and backward in many ways, much more like Kentucky.

    Illinois and Ohio are more progressive, more industrial and more in line with the times.

    I can't change the direction of the wind, but I can adjust my sails to always reach my destination. ~Jimmy Dean

    by ParkRanger on Wed Oct 06, 2010 at 09:22:29 AM PDT

    •  and it's extremely (0+ / 0-)

      Republican.Obama caried it by less then 25,000 votes and it hadn't went Democrat in a presidential race since 1964.

      •  Boy, tell me about it. My US representative (0+ / 0-)

        is Republican Taliban Dan Burton.  And the Democrat that is running against him is ALSO a Republican Tea Party member! I'm not voting for a Representative this election, but I will be voting for the best Democrats I can find.

        I can't change the direction of the wind, but I can adjust my sails to always reach my destination. ~Jimmy Dean

        by ParkRanger on Thu Oct 07, 2010 at 11:08:43 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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