This one will be short, but I hope to the point. I'd like to announce that the Senate will be ours in November. Nate Silver told me so. You just need to take a look at the latest Senate forecast on his blog.
According to Silver, we have a 76% chance of retaining the Senate. This is not as good as the 85% chance we had right after Castle got himself teabagged. But I don't care about the percentages. What I care about is the graph, specifically, the tails:
The percentage doesn't mean anything because of the skew. Note that anything to the right of the line means we keep the Senate. Notice that the skew is very much to the right - an unfortunate happenstance of the coordinate system we use, since it's really skewing to the Left. That would be us.
I've seen graphs of this shape before. If you have been following Nate's blog, or Chris Bowers's right here on Kos, you are used to seeing nice, symmetrical bell curves, not distributions with this kind of skew. I don't want to go into all the math, because I don't remember it all off the top of my head, and I don't know where I put those textbooks, but the gist of it is this:
The Republicans are Fucked.