I am not happy to report today’s Senate Snapshot numbers.
The projection shows Republicans gaining another seat, moving into a 50-50 tie that would be broken by Vice President Joe Biden. Also, GOP chances of taking the chamber outright have increased to 17.1%, their second highest total ever in the Snapshot. Even worse, Republicans actually hold narrow leads in 51 seats, which would be enough for outright control. The one bright spot is that Republican leads are so narrow in several campaigns that there is an 83% chance they wouldn’t take control, even if the election were held today.
Senate Competitive Campaigns Chart
Senate seat outcome odds chart
Some people are going to be depressed by this news, and argue that I shouldn’t have posted it at all to prevent reduced activism among Democrats. While I am also depressed by this projection, I vehemently disagree that sugar-coating the situation is a good means to improving activism. Ignoring the dire nature of the situation will not help us. And personally, and makes me even more committed to pulling out all the stops, and doing whatever I can, to achieve victory.
The situation is not good. We need to push as hard as we can during the final 25 days. One way to do so is to sign up with Grassroots SEO, and help America get to know Republican candidates better.
Notes
--This is a snapshot, not a forecast. All of the odds presented here are based on if the election were held today. It is not a prediction of future trends.
--Only campaigns closer than 12.0% are listed. If a campaign isn't listed here, then it is not currently as close as any of the campaigns listed here.
--I am not projecting odds of victory in Alaska, due to the write-in campaign of Lisa Murkowski.
--With few exceptions, all polls used in the averages are taken from Pollster.com.
--A complete description of the methodology behind this snapshot, along with all the research and a FAQ, can be found here.