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Summary:
Florida has 25 representatives: 15 Republicans and 10 Democrats

Possibly vulnerable
FL 2 Boyd D
FL 8 Grayson D
FL 12 Open R
FL 22 Klein D
FL 24 Kosmas D
FL 25 Open R

Sources:
House vote in 2008 from Wikipedia
VoteView (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)
Race Tracker
Obama vote by CD from Swing State (other stuff there too).
and my previous diaries.
FEC
and Steve Singiser's diaries here on daily Kos (which I checked for about a month).
=========================================================================
(fundraising is as of Aug 8).

District: FL-01
Location The westernmost part of the panhandle, bordering AL, the Gulf of Mexico and including Pensacola map
Representative Jeff Miller (R)
VoteView ranking 429
First elected  2001
2008 margin 70-30 over Jim Bryan
2006 margin 69-31
2004 margin 77-22
Obama margin 32-67
Bush margin 2004 72-29
Current opponents Jim Bryan is running again, he looks like a good guy, but this is a tough district for Democrats.
Demographics Most veterans of any district (21.7%), and the 13th  most Republican district per Cook PVI
Assessment Long shot.  Miller has little COH, but no info on Bryan.

District: FL-02
Location The middle of the panhandle, bordering AL, GA and the Gulf of Mexico, and including Tallahassee map
Representative Allen Boyd (D)
VoteView ranking 205
First elected  1996
2008 margin 62-38 over Mike Mulligan
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin 62-38
Obama margin 45-54
Bush margin 2004 54-44
Current opponents  Steve Southerland, then there's Paul McKain who is (get this) a Whig!
Demographics 90th poorest district (median income = $35K), 60th most veterans (15.3%)
Assessment This part of FL is more like Alabama or Georgia than it is like Miami; Tallahasse (which is in the eastern part of this district) is 484 miles from Miami and 228 from Atlanta.  Boyd has shown he can win; most Democrats could not.  Safe.  Boyd has over $750K   COH, Southerland has about $85K.  A recent Republican poll put Southerland up by double digits.
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating: Tossup

District: FL-03
Location The 'joint' where the panhandle meets the main part of the state, including (through some gerrymandering) both parts of Jacksonville and Gainesville.  This district has been the subject of lots of controversy - it borders the 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th and 24th.  Here:

District          %Black       %Bush 04
03                  49.3          35
04                  13.5          69  
05                   4.5          58
06                  11.9          61
07                   8.8          57  
24                   6.3          55

and the borders of the 3rd are pretty tortured. map
Representative Corrine Brown (D)
VoteView ranking 173.5
First elected  1992
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin unopposed
Obama margin 73-26
Bush margin 2004 35-65
Notes on opponents NA
Current opponents Mike Yost(R) and John Annarumma (another Whig)
Demographics 21st poorest district (median income = $30K), 41st most Blacks (49.3%)
Assessment Safe.  Brown has $95K COH, Yost has little.

District: FL-04
Location The eastern part of the panhandle, from Tallahassee suburbs to the Atlantic, bordering GA map
Representative Ander Crenshaw (R)
First elected  2000
2008 margin 65-35 over Jim McGovern
2006 margin 70-30
2004 margin unopposed
Obama margin 38-61
Bush margin 2004 69-31
Current opponents No confirmed Democrats.  There is a primary challenge.
Demographics 30th most veterans (17.1%); 33rd most Republican district
Assessment No opponent.

District: FL-05
Location On the Gulf coast, just south of the panhandle map
Representative Ginny Brown-Waite (R) Retiring
VoteView ranking NA
First elected  NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 43-56
Bush margin 2004 58-41
Current opponents Jim Picillo (D) and Richard Nugent (R)
Demographics 12th most veterans (21.3%)
Assessment Long shot.  Even with Brown-Waite retiring, this is Republican territory.  Nugent only has about $20K COH, Picillo has even less.

District: FL-06
Location A boomerang shaped district in the middle of north Florida map
Representative Cliff Stearns (R)
VoteView ranking 392
First elected 1988
2008 margin 61-39 over Tim Cunha
2006 margin 60-40
2004 margin 64-36
Obama margin 43-56
Bush margin 2004 61-39
Current opponents No opponent
Demographics 13th most veterans (18.3%)
Assessment No oppnent

District: FL-07
Location Atlantic coast of northern FL, from north of St. Augustine to Daytona Beach  map
Representative John Mica (R)
VoteView ranking 367
First elected  1992
2008 margin 62-38 over Faye Armitage
2006 margin 63-37
2004 margin Unopposed
Obama margin 46-53
Bush margin 2004 57-43
Current opponents Heather Beaven.
Demographics 15th most veterans (17.6%)
Assessment Long shot.  Mica has over $1 million COH, Beaven has little.

District:FL-08
Location More or less the middle of FL, including Orlando map
Representative Alan Grayson (D)
VoteView ranking NA
First elected  2008
2008 margin 52-48 over Ric Keller
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 53-47
Bush margin 2004 55-45
Current opponents Dan Webster
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment This is a swing district, going for Bush twice before going for Obama; it's far from safe, but Grayson did just oust Keller.  Grayson is very visible, and in ways I like a lot. He's got $1.4 million COH, but a lot of debt.  Webster has about $100K. A poll by a conservative group shows Webster up by 7.
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating: Lean D.  Grayson's name recognition and huge fund raising ability count for something.

District: FL-09
Location A weirdly shaped district (Oh Gerry! Gerry!) it runs along the Gulf Coast, circles around the 10th CD, and continues, plus it runs east into Central FL, then south - it's shaped sort of like the number 5, or more like a backwards Z rotated 90 degrees. map
Representative Gus Bilirakis (R)
VoteView ranking 294
First elected  2006
2008 margin 63-36 over Bill Mitchell
2006 margin 56-44
2004 margin NA (but it was his father who held the seat)
Obama margin 47-52
Bush margin 2004 57-43
Current opponents Anita de Palma
Demographics 18th most veterans (17.2%)
Assessment Long shot.  Bilirakis has $300K COH, DePalma has little

District: FL-10
Location The Gulf Coast, near Tampa Bay (across the Bay from Tampa, north of St. Pete), but excluding a narrow strip that is FL-09. map
Representative Bill Young (R)
VoteView ranking 289
First elected  1970
2008 margin 61-39 over Bob Hackworth
2006 margin 66-34
2004 margin 69-31
Obama margin 51-47
Bush margin 2004 51-49
Current opponents Charlie Justice.
Demographics 13th most veterans (18.2%)
Assessment Young is gradually getting vulnerable.  If we get some breaks, it's possible we could win here.  Young has almost $650K COH, Justice has about $22K.
My rating: Very likely R, but there is some hope.  Maybe 2012.

District: FL-11
Location Tampa and St. Petersburg map
Representative Kathy Castor
VoteView ranking 98.5
First elected  2006
2008 margin 70-30 over Eddie Adams
2006 margin 70-30
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 66-33
Bush margin 2004 41-58
Current opponents Mike Pendergrast
Demographics 55th most Blacks (27.4%)
Assessment Probably safe.  Castor has $400K COH. Prendergast has about $50K

District: FL-12
Location Interior Florida, east of Tampa Bay map
Representative Adam Putnam (R) Quitting to run for statewide office
VoteView ranking NA
First elected  NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 49-50
Bush margin 2004 58-42
Current opponents Lori Edwards (D), Dennis Ross (R)
Demographics 23rd most veterans (17%)
Assessment This is a fairly Republican seat.  Ross has $400K COH, Edwards has about $100K
SSP rating: Likely R
My rating: Likely R

District: FL-13
Location Gulf coast, from Bradenton to Englewood, interior to Arcadia map
Representative Vern Buchanan (R)
VoteView ranking 292
First elected  2006
2008 margin 56-38 over Christine Jennings
2006 margin 369 votes out of 237,000
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 47-52
Bush margin 2004 56-43
Current opponents : James Golden
Demographics 9th most veterans (19.2%)
Assessment Buchanan is vulnerable, if a good candidate runs.  But Buchanan has over $1 million COH, albeit with a lot of debt,  and Golden has little.

District: FL-14
Location Gulf coast, including Naples and Ft. Myers map
Representative Connie Mack (R)
VoteView ranking 398
First elected 2004
2008 margin 59-25 over Robert Neeld
2006 margin 64-36
2004 margin 68-32
Obama margin 42-57
Bush margin 2004 62-38
Current opponents James Roach
Demographics 6th most veterans (19.8%)
Assessment Neeld has failed three times, long shot. Mack has $630K COH, Roach has little.

District: FL-15
Location Atlantic coast, from Cocoa to Vero Beach map
Representative Bill Posey (R)
VoteView ranking NA
First elected  2008
2008 margin 53-42 over Stephen Blythe
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 48-51
Bush margin 2004 57-43
Current opponents Shannon Roberts
Demographics 8th most veterans (19.4%)
Assessment Long shot.  Posey has $300K COH, Roberts has little.

District: FL-16
Location An oddly shaped district, it goes from the Gulf to the Atlantic; it's narrow at the Gulf (just about Port Charlotte and nothing else), widens in the middle of the state, swings around Lake Okeechobee, then narrows, then widens again at the Atlantic running from Ft. Pierce to Jupiter, then jogging inland to Wellington map
Representative Tom Rooney (R)
VoteView ranking NA
First elected  2008
2008 margin  60-40 over Tim Mahoney
2006 margin 50-48
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 47-52
Bush margin 2004 54-46
Current opponents Jim Horn
Demographics 11th most veterans (18.9%)
Assessment Rooney has $600K COH, Horn has little.  Safe for R.

District: FL-17
Location Just off the Atlantic (by a mile or so) including North Miami Beach, North Miami, and Hollywood map
Representative Kendrick Meek (D) Retiring to run for Senate
VoteView ranking NA
First elected  NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 87-12
Bush margin 2004 17-83
Notes on opponents NA
Current opponents Fredericka Wilson (D), no Republicans.
Demographics 20th most Blacks (55.2%) and very few veterans (7.2%). 29th poorest district (median income = $30K).  The most Democratic district in the South
Assessment No opponent.  This is one of the most Democratic districts in the country, and Obama got more here than in all but 12 CDs.

District: FL-18
Location Miami and a narrow strip along the Atlantic north and south of there map
Representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R)
VoteView ranking 258
First elected  1989
2008 margin 58-42 over Annette Tadeo
2006 margin 62-38
2004 margin 65-35
Obama margin 51-49
Bush margin 2004 54-46
Current opponents Rolando Banciella.
Demographics 16th most Latinos (62.7%)
Assessment Long shot.  Ros-Lehtinen has over $1 million COH, Banciella has little.

District: FL-19
Location Slightly off the Atlantic from near West Palm Beach to near Pompano Beach map
Representative Robert Wexler (D) Retired, the new rep. is Ted Deutch (D) who won a special election.  
VoteView ranking 50
First elected  1996
2008 margin 66-27 over Ed Lynch
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin unoppposed
Obama margin 65-34
Bush margin 2004 34-66
Current opponents Joe Budd
Demographics 28th most veterans (16.6%)
Assessment  Safe.  Deutch has about $150K COH, Budd has little.

District: FL-20
Location Another weirdly shaped district.  What is it shaped like? Well, part of it is like a number 7, with the top running from the Atlantic west to Weston, and the bottom on the Atlantic. Then, atop the 7, it goes back east to the Atlantic again then north a little... ohh... go look at the map
Representative Debbie Wasserman Schulz (D)
VoteView ranking 83
First elected  2004 (D)
2008 margin unopposed
2006 margin unoppsed
2004 margin 70-30
Obama margin 63-36
Bush margin 2004 36-64
Current opponents Karen Harrington
Demographics Not unusual on what I track, but one of the highest concentrations of Jews of any district.
Assessment Safe.  Wasserman-Schulz has over $700K COH, Harrington has little.

District: FL-21
Location This one is shaped like a ?.  Folks, to appreciate southern FL districting, you really have to look at a map.  Gerry would be proud of these guys, but the Republicans may have overdone it, as they now have several vulnerable seats. map
Representative Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R) Retiring
VoteView ranking NA
First elected  NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 49-51
Bush margin 2004 57-43
Current opponents For the Republicans, Mario Diaz-Balart, who is the representative for FL-25, is switching districts.  I can't find who is running for the Democrats.
Demographics 8th most Latinos (69.7%)
Assessment Vulnerable with the right opponent, I thought this would be closer in 2008.  But so far, the new Diaz-Balart has $300K COH, while Sanchez has little.

District: FL-22
Location One of the strangest shaped districts in the country. Go look. It's south Florida along the Atlantic....more or less. map
Representative Ron Klein (D)
VoteView ranking 203.5
First elected  2006
2008 margin 55-45 over Allen West
2006 margin 51-47
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 52-48
Bush margin 2004 48-52
Current opponents  Allen West is running again.
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment  West does not appear to be a serious threat.  Klein has $2.8 million COH, West has $2.2 million. A poll by Democratic outfit shows Klein ahead, while one by Republicans shows West ahead.
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating: Likely D.  Klein won easily in 2008; this is a more Republican year, but probably not that much of a swing.

District: FL-23
Location The eastern and southern coasts of Lake Okeechobee map
Representative Alcee Hastings (D)
VoteView ranking 57.5
First elected 1992
2008 margin 82-18 over Marion Thorpe
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin unopposed
Obama margin 83-17
Bush margin 2004 24-76
Notes on opponents NA
Current opponents  Bernard Sansariq
Demographics 43rd fewest Whites (29.4%), 23rd most Blacks (51.2%), 41st poorest (median income = $31K)
Assessment Safe.  Hastings has $280K COH, Sansariq has little.

District: FL-24
Location Atlantic coast, towards the north. map
Representative Suzanne Kosmas (D)
VoteView ranking NA
First elected  2008
2008 margin
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 49-51
Bush margin 2004 55-45
Current opponents Sandy Adams
Demographics 21st most veterans (17.1%)
Assessment  Very vulnerable, Kosmas is a freshman in a swing district in a more Republican year.  Kosmas has $1.2 million COH;  Adams about $115K.
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating: Tossup

District: FL-25
Location Southern end of Florida map
Representative Mario Diaz-Balart (R) Switching districts
VoteView ranking NA
First elected  NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 49-50
Bush margin 2004 56-44
Current opponents Joe Garcia (D), David Rivera (R)
Demographics 17th most Latinos (62.4%), 16th fewest veterans (6%)
Assessment Vulnerable.  Rivera has $1.1 million COH, Garica $560K.
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating: Tossup

Originally posted to plf515 on Sun Oct 10, 2010 at 04:39 AM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Floridian tips n/t (20+ / 0-)

    We all differ in ways that matter. But we're all the same in the ways that matter most.

    by plf515 on Sun Oct 10, 2010 at 04:39:05 AM PDT

  •  Can't agree about Grayson (6+ / 0-)

    outside money for Webster is deluging the district.  This is one seat where the Citizen's United decision has had a real impact.

    Hope I am wrong, but he looks in real trouble.

    In Fl-22 the last poll non-partisan poll (from last week) has it 48-43. I think SSP has this right: this is a tossup.  Again the money advantage for the GOP is showing here.

    I here Kosmos is gone in Fl-24.

    Great reading as always.  I wish I were more optimistic

    The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

    by fladem on Sun Oct 10, 2010 at 05:08:12 AM PDT

    •  Maybe you know the answer to this (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Larsstephens

      but why doesn't Grayson self-fund?

      And, related to that, has he been using his life story at all?

      He started poor and got very rich, suing corporations on behalf of ordinary people.

      We all differ in ways that matter. But we're all the same in the ways that matter most.

      by plf515 on Sun Oct 10, 2010 at 05:28:43 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think he is to some extent (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        plf515, Larsstephens

        he has raised a ton of money from the netroots as well.  That district is just being deluged with ads.  I think that was one of the reasons why he went with the Taliban ad - it was a way to break through the clutter.  The general consensus is the ad overeached, but without more polling it is hard to really tell.

        The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

        by fladem on Sun Oct 10, 2010 at 05:40:14 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I think a lot of districts (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Larsstephens

          reach a point where ads have not only diminishing marginal returns, but NEGATIVE returns.  

          That is, each additional ad for a candidate lowers the probability of people voting for him or her

          Have any of Grayson's ads told his life story?

          We all differ in ways that matter. But we're all the same in the ways that matter most.

          by plf515 on Sun Oct 10, 2010 at 05:43:44 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I live in Tampa (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            plf515, Larsstephens

            and don't get Orlando TV, so I am sure one does but I haven't seen it.

            I very much agree about diminishing returns in advertising.

            The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

            by fladem on Sun Oct 10, 2010 at 05:45:00 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  I think he's missing out (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        plf515, Larsstephens

        on a great opportunity, not using his "rags to riches" story, and the teabagger g-spot of exposing government fraud.  He's got a couple of warm fuzzy ads, but they feature his kids.

        I'm guessing he's chosen not to self-fund because he's got such national name recognition, he's able to pull plenty of cash from donors outside the district.  

        There is no snooze button on a cat who wants breakfast.

        by puzzled on Sun Oct 10, 2010 at 05:49:21 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  gerrymandered districts (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    plf515, alliedoc, Dichro Gal, Larsstephens

    may be history if we can pass Amendments 5 and 6 this year.  

    There is no snooze button on a cat who wants breakfast.

    by puzzled on Sun Oct 10, 2010 at 05:51:52 AM PDT

  •  So, after reading any poll I come across, (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    plf515, Larsstephens

    and having just studied 538 this morning, I feel that the logic says that the House will be under Boehner in 2011.  A lot of the never-say-die types won't believe it but it seems the GOP will be up by 20 come November 3.

    What I would like to know is what does it look like for teabagger types?  How many of these new GOP will march to a different drummer?

    Any thoughts?

    The true danger in politics is when people in power elevate ideological purity over their basic humanity, empathy, and common sense. -- thereisnospoon

    by alliedoc on Sun Oct 10, 2010 at 06:05:06 AM PDT

    •  I have no idea (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Larsstephens

      At this point, distinguishing between "normal" Republicans and teabaggers is almost futile.  They are all insane.

      We all differ in ways that matter. But we're all the same in the ways that matter most.

      by plf515 on Sun Oct 10, 2010 at 07:26:06 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Thank you dear. Sadly, I see a future where (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        plf515, Larsstephens

        you can't tell how much blockage is coming from the right-wings.  I just wish we could demonstrate more clearly what the heck is going on, before the election that is.

        The true danger in politics is when people in power elevate ideological purity over their basic humanity, empathy, and common sense. -- thereisnospoon

        by alliedoc on Sun Oct 10, 2010 at 08:06:27 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  FL-25 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    plf515, Larsstephens

    I sure hope that one goes to Joe Garcia

    Thanks for doing this plf

    I'm just an ant in the army of the Amateur Left

    by eeff on Sun Oct 10, 2010 at 06:40:20 AM PDT

  •  FL-06 No Democrat in the race (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    plf515, Larsstephens

    Tim Cunha is not on the ballot. I had an email from him maybe as much as a year ago that he didn't think money should be wasted in FL-06 due to the severe gerrymandering. He recommended all money and energy go into the Fair Districting Amendments instead.

    Cliff Stearns (R) is being challenged from the right by Steve Schonberg (NPA).

  •  FL-08: Shouldn't Dan Webster be (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    plf515, Larsstephens

      running as a Whig like his famous 19th century namesake? Florida seems to be the state where the "Modern Whigs" are most active. From what I can tell looking at their website they are sort of like Perotism with out Perot, concerned about deficits and trying to find consensus "non-political" solutions to political problems. Also they have a lot of interest in military folks' issues. That is appropriate since the only two Whig Presidents elected were military officers, Billy Harrison (Old Tippecanoe) and Zack Taylor (Old Rough and Ready). I am not a Whig though I was named after one.

    I'm not a Limousine Liberal; I am a Prius Progressive

    by Zack from the SFV on Sun Oct 10, 2010 at 10:03:31 AM PDT

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