Skip to main content

PPP polled West Virginia 10/9-10/10th and found Manchin retaking the lead 48-45, just inside the MoE of +/-2.8%.

He trailed by 3 points in a PPP poll three weeks ago and his improved standing is a clear example of the biggest potential game changer nationwide for this year's election in the final three weeks- if Democratic voters wake up some of their candidates' fates could shift quite a bit.

In 2008 56& of the voters who came out for President in West Virginia were registered Democrats while 29% were registered Republicans. The poll we did in mid-September found that the folks planning to vote in this year's election were considerably more GOP leaning- only 51% Democrats and 37% Republicans. But Democratic interest has perked up quite a bit over the ensuing three weeks and the likely electorate is now composed of 55% Democrats and 33% Republicans, still slightly more GOP friendly than in 2008 but enough to put Manchin back into the lead....

Manchin's 68% approval rating on this poll is the highest PPP has measured for any politician in the country in 2010. Majorities of Democrats (80%), independents (60%), and Republicans (50%) alike are happy with the job he's doing. John Raese on the other hand has seen his favorability numbers slide over the last three weeks to the point where now just 39% of voters see him favorably and 46% have an unfavorable opinion.

Manchin's net approval is 53 points better than Raese's net favorability yet this is still only a 3 point race because the political climate remains toxic for Democrats in the state. Barack Obama's approval rating in the state is only 33%. Out of 32 states PPP has polled in this year that is Obama's worst approval anywhere.

Manchin needs to keep hammering Raese. His favorables are high enough that he needn't worry about going heavily on offense and focusing on the carpestbagging issue, which has been made much more salient with the "hicky" story. The PPP polling memo addresses that.

While Manchin has become more popular, the ad scandal may have hurt Raese already, because he has turned a 41-35 favorability rating into a 39-46 one, a negative swing of 13 points overall—22 points and 24 points with Democrats and independents, respectively.

West Virginia firefighters jump into it with this, spending "$32,000 airing this ad on cable around the state through Sunday, enough to get it pretty widely seen in West Virginia."

It's an effective ad, with real West Virginians--firefighters, no less--contrasting themselves with "Philadelphia actors" and Raese's "tax break on his Florida mansion." Expect Manchin to keep hitting those themes for the rest of the race.

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 01:40 PM PDT.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site