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(reposted with permission from author, lowkell at Blue Virginia Blog) Direct link to original post here

It's stories like this why we need to take polling with a huge grain of salt.

Republican Robert Hurt still enjoys a double digit lead, but Democrat Tom Perriello has pulled closer in the race for the 5th Congressional District.

The latest News7 SurveyUSA poll found an 11 point lead for the challenger Hurt.  That's a significant difference from our last two polls, which showed leads of more than 20-points for Hurt.

Why the difference?  Part of the answer involves how SurveyUSA conducted the research.  Tuesday's poll used a different survey method from the previous two.

If the same methodology was used, Hurt's lead would stand at 17-points, down from 23 points in late September.

In other words, polling's at least as much an "art" as a "science." So now we have three recent polls, this one (Hurt +11), Custom Research Strategies (Hurt +1), and The Hill/ANGA (Hurt +1). Take the average of those three polls, and perhaps Hurt is ahead by 4 points or so, with the race continuing to tighten? Can Tom Perriello be the "comeback kid" this year, as he was in 2008 (when he was down big to Virgil Goode but ended up squeaking out a win)?  I see no reason why not. Go Tom!

Originally posted to mydailydrunk on Wed Oct 13, 2010 at 06:44 AM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (9+ / 0-)

    Just when you thought there wasn't a dime's worth of difference between the two parties, the Republicans go and prove you're wrong. ~Molly Ivins

    by mydailydrunk on Wed Oct 13, 2010 at 06:44:07 AM PDT

  •  polls are all flawed this cycle.... (7+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    vlajos, Aspe4, tle, buddabelly, TomP, Bonsai66, flhiii88

    come on...gallup saying 54% of the voters will be conservatives?  BS!!!!

    If 54% of the voters were conservatives, Barney Frank would be in trouble.

    poor polling (or my thought is republican narrative planning) better help get the base fired up.

    Republicans===the party of the 1% rich people in America. Or in other words..The Party of NO!

    by jalapeno on Wed Oct 13, 2010 at 06:53:21 AM PDT

    •  definite weirdness out there (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      vlajos, Aspe4, jalapeno, oceanview, buddabelly

      me and the missus were discussing this last night.  I don't think there is an accurate predictive model out there.  Sure, we'll lose seats, but not catastrophically.

      We're hoping that candidates like Perriello can be held up as an example of not running to the right, and will inject some backbone into current and future candidates.

      He pulled out a squeaker (+745 votes) against an entrenched incumbent last time, in a district that went for McCain, and we're crossing our fingers that the respect he's earned even from republicans will translate into holding onto the rural moderates who will come out to vote.

      Just when you thought there wasn't a dime's worth of difference between the two parties, the Republicans go and prove you're wrong. ~Molly Ivins

      by mydailydrunk on Wed Oct 13, 2010 at 07:06:42 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Annecdotally, I Will Say I Know (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        mydailydrunk

        a republican who says Perriello is way more responsive to calls and requests of local governments who contact his office than Goode was.

        My back is spineless. My back is yellow. I am the American non-voter. -The Simpsons, Episode 2, Season 3, "Mr. Lisa Goes to Washington"

        by Aspe4 on Wed Oct 13, 2010 at 08:34:59 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Or in Nevada.. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      vlajos

      Where a CNN poll had Angle ahead by in LV model but behind 11 in RV model BUT no one under 35 was polled??? Another poll,FOX NEWS, had INDY's making up 40% of the respondents & GOPr's outnumbering DEMS when INDY's only make up 15% of Nevada's voters along with  the GOP saying they can't begin to hope to outnumber DEMS on election day in Nevada. Rasmussen left out the Tea Party candidate(no it's not Angle) and the "none of the above option".

      •  proves my point (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        buddabelly

        trying to put as much republican spin on as possible.

        Maybe in 2011, Obama and the dems will realize there is no such thing as bipartisanship.

        It is either our way or NO.

        Republicans===the party of the 1% rich people in America. Or in other words..The Party of NO!

        by jalapeno on Wed Oct 13, 2010 at 07:48:54 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  polls don't matter here (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    vlajos, Aspe4

    Perriello is going to lose so the margin really doesn't matter. This is a republican district and he only won in 2008 because of giant turnout of minorities. This is a really bad year to be a democrat in this district.
    He is a good congressman but democrats are underdogs here in the best of times.

    •  If Perriello can pull this off I'll be amazed (0+ / 0-)

      That said, momentum counts for a lot on politics. If he can convince the voters he has it (and Hurt doesn't) maybe he could win.

      Here we are now Entertain us I feel stupid and contagious

      by Scarce on Wed Oct 13, 2010 at 07:09:04 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Tom lost by only 16 votes in my precinct (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      vlajos, Aspe4, beltane

      a very rural one at that (Darlington Heights).

      We'll have to see.  Hurt has been ignoring low-population density areas such as this, so I don't know how that will play into the numbers.

      Just when you thought there wasn't a dime's worth of difference between the two parties, the Republicans go and prove you're wrong. ~Molly Ivins

      by mydailydrunk on Wed Oct 13, 2010 at 07:11:49 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Well, isn't this the district where the incumbent (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      vlajos

      ...Republican found himself associated with a producer of gay S&M videos?  So Perriello got in through a one-time piece of luck.  He's absolutely right to try to turn the district Democratic by being a Democrat, rather than trying to adapt to the district by becoming a neo-Republican.  We can't premise our majorities on the lowest (most conservative) denominator; worthwhile politics is about conveying what you think is right and hoping to turn opinion in your favor.

      The most impressive thing about man [...] is the fact that he has invented the concept of that which does not exist--Glenn Gould

      by Rich in PA on Wed Oct 13, 2010 at 07:52:13 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I'd rather us all be behind in polls and (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    vlajos

    come out ahead in Nov than the other way around.

    Crescat scientia; vita excolatur

    by AxmxZ on Wed Oct 13, 2010 at 08:07:40 AM PDT

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