If there is a single word to characterize the 2010 election cycle, that word would be, without a doubt, uncertainty. As Nate Silver acknowledged earlier this week:
There is considerable uncertainty in the forecast because of the unusually large number of House seats now in play. A gain of as large as 70-80 seats is not completely out of the question if everything broke right for Republicans. Conversely, if Democrats managed to see a material rebound in their national standing over the final two weeks of the campaign, they could lose as few as 20-30 seats, as relatively few individual districts are certain pickups for Republicans.
Add to that the myriad of questions that are being asked about the state of polling in this cycle (many of which have been covered here at DK), and even at this late stage of the game, there is a vast universe of things we don't know about this election.
Which, it would seem, would make this a cycle where upset specials ought to be a common sight on November 2nd. This Sunday night, your intrepid Wrap curator is going to have his genius/idiot moment of the cycle--for he is going to try to concoct a list of eight House races that could be upsets in two weeks time.
It's not that these races are completely off the radar screen. But they are races that have been, by and large, ignored as the cycle has gone on by most of the punditocracy. And, for individual reasons, I suspect that they will be much closer than advertised. The good news for Democrats--three of the eight are, indeed, GOP-held seats.
It is possible, of course, that the party in power will hold all eight of these seats, and that a couple of them might even be held by substantial margins. The reason these eight make the cut is because there is something about those races that makes them more competitive than most.
DEMOCRATIC RACES TO KEEP AN EYE ON
CA-20: Jim Costa
ME-02: Michael Michaud
MA-06: John Tierney
MI-15: John Dingell
MS-04: Gene Taylor
California's 20th district makes the list for two reasons. For one thing, this district is not as solidly Democratic as its decades of Democratic House representation would lead the casual observer to believe. John Kerry only narrowly carried the district, in the same year that current incumbent Jim Costa won the seat with just 53% of the vote. For another thing, Costa's GOP opponent (rancher Andy Vidak) has raised legitimate cash in this race. There has been one public poll in the race, and it showed the race as just a two-point Costa lead.
Maine's 2nd district, and its fourth-term Democratic incumbent (Michael Michaud), has not been getting as much attention as neighbor Chellie Pingree, who made a similar list thrown together by Stu Rothenberg. For my money, Michaud is of greater concern. Recent polling shown Michaud's battle with Republican Jason Levesque a bit closer than Pingree's test with GOPer Dean Scontras. While Michaud has still mostly held double-digit leads, they have been of the low forties vs. low thirties variety. Furthermore, the district is considerably less hospitable. The 2nd district has a much lower PVI (D+3) than does the 1st district (D+8). Michaud, mindful of how tough this race was going to be, began campaigning in earnest earlier than expected. But he also was sitting on $700K as of September 30th, hinting that he might have been caught a little flat-footed.
Massachusetts' 6th district (and its longtime incumbent, John Tierney) arrive on this list, in part, due to the fact that this just seems (given what happened here in January) to be the year that the long-held Democratic hegemony in the Bay State's House delegation is endangered. While most eyes are on the Cape's swing-ish 10th congressional district, some unfortunate legal headlines involving Tierney's wife Patrice (who was convicted of tax fraud in a matter involving her brother) have come at a most inopportune time for Tierney, who is being challenged by Republican Bill Hudak. While Massachusetts is a deeply-blue state, this district is at least willing to flirt with Republicans. Only the 5th and the aforementioned 10th have been more amenable to Republicans at the presidential level over the past eight years.
Michigan's 15th district is, without question, the most Democratic district of the five named. Barack Obama won here with 66%, and John Kerry carried the district with 62%. That is why it came as an absolute shock to see a recent poll (albeit a Republican one, from Rossman Group) showing a slight lead for Republican challenger Rob Steele over the venerable Dingell. The lack of competing polling from the Democrat is a little surprising. I would have expected a counter poll within the week. Steele had a monster third quarter of fundraising ($347K), although Dingell still easily outraised him. One has to wonder if, with voters convinced the country is on the wrong track, the change narrative is so strong that Dingell's decades of service in Congress is now working as a powerful undertow to his re-election chances.
Mississippi's 4th district is the polar opposite of the Michigan 15th. It is, far and away, the most Republican-friendly of the five Dem districts on the list. But, for years, conservaDem Gene Taylor has used a personal appeal (and a large number of apostate votes) to keep the conservative tide in his district at bay. Now, apparently, Taylor's own polling is confirming the narrowness of the race. After his Republican opponent, Steven Palazzo, released a poll showing a four-point race, Taylor's crew essentially confirmed it by releasing their own numbers, which had the margin at eight points. In the 1994 wave election, a lot of the damage was in conservative Southern districts like this one. One has to wonder, if such a wave does exist in the 2010 cycle, if this is the kind of district that can be flipped.
REPUBLICAN RACES TO KEEP AN EYE ON
AZ-03: Open Seat (John Shadegg is retiring)
FL-12: Open Seat (Adam Putnam is retiring)
PA-16: Joe Pitts
Arizona's 3rd district is a district where I am truly shocked that there is no public polling available (although the Kossack community might have changed that with their vote last week. The district has a distinctive Republican lean, but the GOP nominee there is pretty flawed (and not just because of his surname). Ben Quayle survived the primary with an unspectacular vote total, in no small part because the primary was a 10-candidate affair. Meanwhile, the Democratic challenger (attorney Jon Hulburd) has raised legitimate money, and is damned near even with Quayle on cash-on-hand, despite Quayle's campaign being a freaking ATM ($1.93 million raised).
Florida's 12th district, on paper, should be a hold for the GOP. Their candidate, former state legislator Dennis Ross, has outraised Democratic challenger Lori Edwards by a two-to-one margin in this R+6 district. But two things make this one interesting. For one thing, the district might be shifting noticeably. Florida moved a total of eight points in the Democratic direction between 2004 and 2008. But the 12th district's shift was even sharper, from a 16-point GOP margin in 2004 to just a single point in 2008. Furthermore, there is a wild card in the race: Polk County Commissioner and Tea Party candidate Randy Wilkinson. A poll taken over the summer by Dem pollsters Greenberg Quinlan Rosner gave Edwards a shocking three-point edge, elevated by Wilkinson's ability to notch 20% of the vote. Given his lack of funds, that might be a bit optimistic, but if not...watch out for this one.
Pennsylvania's 16th district is on here solely because of the internal polling we have seen here. On paper, Republican Joe Pitts would be expected to be heavily favored over Democrat Lois Herr. Not only is the district tilted to the GOP (Bush took 61% here, though McCain only snagged 51%), but Pitts beat Herr by seventeen points (56-39) in a great Democratic year in 2008. But the Herr campaign released an internal in late September showing Pitts out in front by just seven points (41-34). Given the pollster's incredibly good track record as of late, it was a poll I took seriously.
That pollster, for those who are curious, was PPP, whose work is often found on the DK front page, as they became our polling partner a few months ago.
Are there races I missed? Of course, there are. This is a cycle marked by a huge amount of uncertainty, as I said at the open. If there are "upset specials" that you like more than the ones I have named, please feel free to make your case in the comments.