Summary:
MN has 8 reps: 5 D, 3 R.
MS has 4 reps: 3 D, 1 R.
MO has 9 reps: 4 D, 5 R.
MT has 1 rep, a Repub.
Possibly vulnerable:
MN-01 (D)
MN-06 (R)
MO-03 (D)
MO-04 (D)
MO-08 (R)
MS-01 (D)
MS-04 (D)
Sources:
House vote in 2008 from Wikipedia
VoteView (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)
Race Tracker
Obama vote by CD from Swing State (other stuff there too).
and my previous diaries.
FEC
and Steve Singiser's diaries here on daily Kos (which I checked for about a month).
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District: MN-01
Location The southern part of MN, bordering WI, IA, and SD map
Cook PVI R + 1
Representative Tim Walz (D)
VoteView 190
First elected 2006
2008 margin 63-33 over Brian Davis
2006 margin 53-47
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 51-47
Bush margin 2004 51-47
Current opponents Randy Demmer
Demographics 77th most rural (43.5%), 31st fewest Blacks (1.0%)
Assessment As of 9/30, Walz has over $800K COH Demmer has $230K. A recent poll had Walz up 47-42
SSP rating: Lean D
My rating: Likely D
District: MN-02
Location Southern suburbs and exurbs of twin cities map
Cook PVI R + 4
Representative John Kline (R)
VoteView 397
First elected 2002
2008 margin 57-43 over Steve Sarvi
2006 margin 56-40
2004 margin 56-40
Obama margin 48-50
Bush margin 2004 45-54
Current opponents Shelly Madore
Demographics 36th highest income (median = $61K), 10th fewest in poverty (3.9%), 60th fewest Blacks (1.6%)
Assessment This district is becoming more D, but maybe not quickly enough for 2010. As of 9/30, Kline has $840K COH, Madore has little. Safe for Republicans this year.
District: MN-03
Location Suburbs of the twin cities map
Cook PVI Even
Representative Erik Paulsen (R)
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 49-41 over Ashwin Madia, remainder to David Dillon (INP), who looks pretty progressive.
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 52-46
Bush margin 2004 51-48
Current opponents Jim Meffert
Demographics 6th wealthiest (median income = $64K), 5th fewest in poverty (3.5%), 80th fewest Blacks (3.8%)
Assessment This one looks possible; I think most of the 11% that went to Dillon would go Democratic. But Paulsen has over $1 million COH, Meffert about $100K. Probably safe for Republicans
District: MN-04
Location St. Paul and suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 13
Representative Betty McCollum (D)
VoteView 77
First elected 2000
2008 margin 69-31 over Ed Matthews
2006 margin 70-30
2004 margin 57-33
Obama margin 64-32
Bush margin 2004 34-57
Current opponents Teresa Collett
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe. As of 9/30, McCollum has just almost $200K COH, Collett has little.
District: MN-05
Location map
Cook PVI D + 23
Representative Keith Ellison (D)
VoteView 11
First elected 2006
2008 margin 71-22 over Barb White
2006 margin 56-21
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 74-24
Bush margin 2004 71-28
Current opponents Joel Demos
Demographics 40th most Democratic
Assessment Safe. As of 9/30, Ellison has over $1 million COH, Demos has little
District: MN-06
Location Mostly in central MN, but extending east and south to the WI border map
Cook PVI R + 7
Representative Michelle Bachmann (R)
VoteView 399
First elected 2006
2008 margin 46-43 over El Tinklenberg, remainder to Bob Anderson. It's hard to say who Anderson hurt - he says he's a 'conservative alternative to Bachmann'. Bachmann did run more behind McCain (7 points) than El behind Obama (2 points).
2006 margin 50-42 over John Binkowski
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 45-53
Bush margin 2004 57-42
Current opponents Tarryl Clark
Demographics 53rd highest income (median = $57K), 18th fewest in poverty (4/7%), 18th most Whites (94.9%), 28th fewest Blacks (0.9%), 42nd fewest Latinos (1.3%)
Assessment Bachmann is vulnerable. She's insane. As of 9/30, Bachman had $3.5 million COH and Clark $900K. This is a Republican district, but it's not super-Republican. Clark could win
SSP rating: Likely R
My rating: Likely R
District: MN-07
Location Western MN, bordering SD and ND and Canada map
Cook PVI R + 5
Representative Collin Peterson (D)
VoteView 214
First elected 1990
2008 margin 72-28 over Glen Menze
2006 margin 70-26
2004 margin 66-34
Obama margin 47-50
Bush margin 2004 43-55
Current opponents Lee Byberg
Demographics 6th most rural (66%), 22nd most Whites (93.1%), tied for fewest Blacks (0.3%)
Assessment Safe. OK, Peterson is a very conservative Democrat; still, he wins easily in a Republican district, without using up much money. As of 9/30, he has $800K COH, Menze has little. A recent poll has Peterson up by 30 points
District: MN-08
Location map
Cook PVI D + 3
Representative James Oberstar (D)
VoteView 107
First elected 1974
2008 margin 68-32 over Michael Cummins
2006 margin 64-34
2004 margin 65-32
Obama margin 53-45
Bush margin 2004 46-53
Current opponents Chip Cravaack
Demographics 12th most rural (62.6%), 34th most veterans (16.2%), 20th most Whites (94.6%), 11th fewest Blacks (0.5%), 11th fewest Latinos (0.8%)
Assessment Safe. Oberstar has $600 K COH, Cravaack about $130K. A recent Republican poll had Oberstar up by 3.
District: MS-01
Location Northeastern MS, bordering TN and AL, including Tupelo map
Cook PVI R + 14
Representative Travis Childers (D)
VoteView 239
First elected 2007 (replaced Wicker)
2008 margin 54-44 over Greg Davis
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 37-62
Bush margin 2004 62-37
Current opponents Alan Nunnelee
Demographics 15th most rural (61.5%), 5th fewest nonWhite, nonLatino, nonBlack (1.1%), 58th lowest income (median = $33K)
Assessment Childers, one of the most conervative Democrats in the House, won easily in 2008. Childers has $500K COH, Nunnelee about $300K. A recent Republican poll had Nunallee up 51-40, but a slightly older Democratic poll had Childers up 48-41
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating: Tossup
District: MS-02
Location Western MS, bordering AR and LA map
Cook PVI D + 12
Representative Bennie Thompson (D)
VoteView 45
First elected 1993
2008 margin 69-31 over Richard Cook
2006 margin 64-36
2004 margin 58-41
Obama margin 66-33
Bush margin 2004 40-59
Current opponents Bill Marcy
Demographics 8th poorest (median income = $27K), 10th most in poverty (27.3%), 3rd most Blacks (63.2%, only IL01 and LA02 are higher), 33rd fewest Latinos (1.2%)
Assessment Safe. Thompson has $2 million COH, Marcy has little.
District: MS-03
Location Runs SW to NE, from Natchez, in the southwest, to Starkville, in the northeast. Borders both LA and AL map
Cook PVI R + 15
Representative Gregg Harper (R)
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 63-37 over Joel Gill
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 38-61
Bush margin 2004 65-34
Current opponents Joel Gill
Demographics 18th most rural (59.7%), 51st poorest (median income = $32K), 39th most Black (33.1%), 33rd least Latino (1.2%
Assessment Safe for Republicans. Harper has $200K on Gill has little.
District: MS-04
Location Southeastern MS, bordering AL, LA, and the Gulf map
Cook PVI R + 20
Representative Gene Taylor (D)
VoteView 219
First elected 1989
2008 margin 75-25 over John McKay
2006 margin 80-20
2004 margin 64-35
Obama margin 32-67
Bush margin 2004 68-31
Current opponents Steven Palazzo
Demographics 64th poorest (median income = $33K); 21st most Republican for POTUS. I am not sure, but I think this is the largest difference between Obama vote (32%) and a Democrat in the House (75%). At minimum, 43% of people voted for McCain and Taylor.
Assessment Taylor has $330K COH, Palazzo $200K. Taylor racks up huge wins here, year after year
SSP rating: Likely D
My rating: Safe
District: MO-01
Location St Louismap
Cook PVI D + 27
Representative William Lacy Clay
VoteView 39.5
First elected 2000
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin 73-25
2004 margin 75-23
Obama margin 80-20
Bush margin 2004 75-25
Current opponents Robyn Hamlin
Demographics 24th most Black (49.7%), 27th most Democratic
Assessment As of 10/13, Clay has $330K COH. Hamlin (earlier report) has little. Safe
District: MO-02
Location A ring around St. Louis, including a bit of the city map
Cook PVI R + 9
Representative Todd Akin (R)
VoteView 412
First elected 2000
2008 margin 62-35 over Bill Haas
2006 margin 61-37
2004 margin 65-35
Obama margin 44-55
Bush margin 2004 60-40
Current opponents Arthur Lieber
Demographics 35th wealthiest (median income = $61K), 8 least in poverty (3.6%), 38th most White (93.2%)
Assessment Safe for Republicans. As of 9/30, Akin has about $700K COH, Haas has little.
District: MO-03
Location Southern part of St. Louis, and southern suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 7
Representative Russ Carnahan (D)
VoteView 153
First elected 2004
2008 margin 66-30 over Chris Sander
2006 margin 66-32
2004 margin 53-45
Obama margin 60-39
Bush margin 2004 43-57
Current opponents Ed Martin
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Carnahan has $170 COH, Martin about $650K but this is a very Democratic district and Carnahan seems popular.
SSP rating: Likely D
My rating: Likely D
District: MO-04
Location Western MO, bordering KS, including Jefferson City map
Cook PVI R + 14
Representative Ike Skelton (D)
VoteView 208
First elected 1976
2008 margin 66-34 over Jeff Parnell
2006 margin 68-29
2004 margin 66-32
Obama margin 38-60
Bush margin 2004 64-35
Current opponents Vicky Hartzler
Demographics 17th most rural (60.1%), 85th poorest (median income = $35K), 37th most veterans (16.1%), 62nd most Republican
Assessment Skelton wins easily here, year after year. He has $500 K COH, Stouffer $270K, Hartzler about $400K.
SSP rating: Lean D
My rating: Likely D
District: MO-05
Location Kansas City and suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 10
Representative Emmanuel Cleaver (D)
VoteView 67
First elected 2004
2008 margin 64-36 over Jacob Turk
2006 margin 64-32
2004 margin 55-42
Obama margin 63-36
Bush margin 2004 40-60
Current opponents Jacob Turk
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe. Cleaver has over $250 COH, Turk has little.
District: MO-06
Location Northwestern MO, bordering IA, NE, and KS map
Cook PVI R + 7
Representative Sam Graves (R)
VoteView 382
First elected 2000
2008 margin 59-37 over Kay Barnes
2006 margin 62-36
2004 margin 64-35
Obama margin 45-54
Bush margin 2004 57-42
Current opponents Clint Hylton
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Graves has $230K COH, Hylton has little. Safe.
District: MO-07
Location map
Cook PVI R + 17
Representative Roy Blunt (R) Retiring
VoteView NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 35-63
Bush margin 2004 67-32
Current opponents Billy Long (R), Scott Eckersley (D)
Demographics 86th most rural (40.9%), 62nd poorest (meidan income = $33K), 45th most Whites (92.9%), 42nd fewest Blacks (1.2%), 31st most Republican
Assessment Safe for Republican. Long has $175K COH, Eckersley about $80K
District: MO-08
Location Southeastern MO, bordering KY, TN, and AR. map
Cook PVI R + 15
Representative JoAnn Emerson (R)
VoteView 265
First elected 1996
2008 margin 71-26 over Joe Allen
2006 margin 72-26
2004 margin 72-27
Obama margin 36-62
Bush margin 2004 36-64
Current opponents Tommy Sowers
Demographics 16th most rural (60.4%), 12th poorest (meidan income = $28K), 30th most Whites (92.5%), 22nd fewest Latinos (1.0%), 51st most Republican
Assessment Sowers seems like a very good guy, but this is a very Republican district. Still, Sowers now has pretty much the same COH as Emerson (each had about $500K on 9/30)
My rating: Likely R
District: MO-09
Location Northeastern MO, bordering IA and IL, including part of Jefferson City map
Cook PVI R + 9
Representative Blaine Lutekemeyer (R)
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 50-47 over Judy Baker
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 44-55
Bush margin 2004 41-59
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 31st most rural (54.2%)
Assessment No opponent.
District: MT-AL
Location Whole state map
Cook PVI R + 7
Representative Denny Rehberg (R) Not confirmed
VoteView 304
First elected 2000
2008 margin 64-32 over John Driscoll
2006 margin 61-36
2004 margin 65-34
Obama margin 47-50
Bush margin 2004 39-59
Current opponents Dennis McDonald
Demographics 68th most rural (46.0%), 65th lowest income (median = $33K), 37th most White (89.5%), 3rd fewest Blacks (0.3%)
Assessment Rehberg is popular, but Obama got 47% here. Rehberg has almost $600K COH, McDonald has little. Safe for