Skip to main content

A surprisingly quiet polling weekend has lasted into the week, as this is a much less data-heavy Monday than I would have anticipated. Even with the weekly "poll dump" from our buddies at the DCCC, this is a day where the poll count drops back into the 20s for the first time in quite a while.

In all, we are looking at 26 new polls today, and the bulk of them (and this has been a rarity, as well) show some Democratic momentum building. We have an "endangered Dem" up by a dozen in a public poll, while another one shows private numbers with a double-digit lead. One GOP open seat might be more vulnerable than once thought, and one Dem open seat is no longer even remotely vulnerable.

All this (and more!) in the Monday edition of the Wrap...

THE U.S. SENATE

THE ANALYSIS: Very little Senate polling (although both Fox and CNN will no doubt add to the data within the next two days). Worth noting that the Missouri Senate poll by PPP (which shows Democrat Robin Carnahan more competitive than she has been in months) was a poll conducted for Carnahan's campaign. Both the Florida and Utah numbers are not terribly different from the data that has come before. It is becoming clear that as long as the Florida Senate race is a three-way challenge, Marco Rubio is in a reasonably unassailable position.

THE U.S. HOUSE

THE ANALYSIS: Lots of House polling on the menu today, including some races thought to be closer than they apparently are. Republicans have crowed about the opportunity to beat sophomore Rep. Dan Maffei in upstate New York, but a new Siena poll gives Maffei a double-digit edge. In the "right back at ya" department, Congressman Peter DeFazio responds to last week's GOP poll (showing Art Robinson within single digits) by releasing his own numbers showing a much wider advantage. Arkansas-01 looks a little more competitive than The Hill's poll last week indicated, even in the public poll by Talk Business. The open-seat battle on the Cape in Massachusetts finally gets numbers, and while the Dems are out in front, it is clearly quite close.

THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES

THE ANALYSIS: It is now pretty indisputable that Alex Sink is at least a slight favorite to be the next Governor of Florida, as everyone except for Rasmussen now puts Rick Scott several points behind the Democrat in the Sunshine State. Meanwhile, in the Empire State, the good news is that Andrew Cuomo now has a better two-to-one lead over the trainwreck that is Republican nominee Carl Paladino. The bad news? That there are still a quarter of the voters in New York that would entertain the idea of voting for that guy. In an interesting twist, pollster Dan Jones implies that a backlash against tough negative ads might be insulating Governor Gary Herbert in Utah. If so, that'd be just about the first time I've heard of something like that. I would be much, much more likely to attribute that widening gap to GOP voters in one of the most conservative states in the Union simply coming home.

THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA
Rasmussen mostly upholds the status quo today. If there is any good news for Dems, it is in the most GOP-friendly result from the quartet of polls from Rasmussen. Because if Rasmussen is really saying that Hawaii institution Dan Inouye is only up by thirteen points on Republican Cam Cavasso, one really has to wonder if their numbers on the governor's race last week were legit.

HI-Sen: Sen. Dan Inouye (D) 53%, Cam Cavasso (R) 40%
MA-Gov: Gov. Patrick (D) 47%, Baker (R) 42%, Cahill (I) 6%
NV-Sen: Sharron Angle (R) 50%, Sen. Harry Reid (D) 47%
WA-Sen: Sen. Patty Murray (D) 49%, Dino Rossi (R) 46%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 07:46 PM PDT.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

  •  It's hard to see (9+ / 0-)

    how 100 seats are in play, with results like this.

    I'm a little encouraged.

    •  I think with people muting commercials (7+ / 0-)

      and TIVO and laptops (avoid TV altogether) and no landlines in combination with the GOTV that both the unions and OFA have put together  - all these factors affect the polls now as well as the Nov 2 election results hopefully being a good night for the Democratic Party and the U.S.  

    •  Politico Reporting 99 Dem seats in play (0+ / 0-)

      Politico is reporting 99 Democratic seats are in play

      http://www.politico.com/...

      Reason polls may be understating Dem losses may be illustrated by early voting in North Carolina.  Republican male voting (early voting) is far higher than the norm.  In 2008, Dems enjoyed a 3:1 advantage in early voting; ratio this year is almost 1:1.

      http://www.newsobserver.com/...

      The polls are using likely voter patterns to determine probable outcomes, if R turnout is higher than expected and/or D turnout depressed the polls will understate the size of the Democratic losses.

      Even worse from Democratic perspective -- If there are early heavy losses in the East (likely) and Midwest (almost a certainty) then that "wave" should further depress D turnout and invigorate Republicans making races in Nevada, Washington, California more likely to go in the Republican win column.

  •  Man if Florida was really like that... (7+ / 0-)

    Marco Rubio (R) 39%, Charlie Crist (I) 31%, Kendrick Meek (D) 22%

    And Meek didn't get out of the way, I'd be pissed.  Because if Meek got out and half his support didn't vote and the other half went for Crist, Crist would win.

    It's not too late to have a unity rally with Big Dog, Obama, Crist, Sink and Meek...

    Imagine Pelosi having to have the gavel over to Boehner, and the shit eating grin he'll have as the GOP caucus erupts into raucous applause.

    by Jonze on Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 07:52:25 PM PDT

    •  At this point ... (7+ / 0-)

      ... I would be happy if Crist and Meek got together in a closed room, flipped a coin, and decided to fully back whoever won the coin toss.

      •  That's a strategy I thought about in Alaska... (5+ / 0-)

        as well. However I don't think it would work as well in Florida because Crist voters could go to Rubio over Meek.  Meek has to drop or nothing.  

        In Alaska I think Miller has topped out at 35% and Murkowski could control her voters enough to put McAdams over Miller heads up.  

        Imagine Pelosi having to have the gavel over to Boehner, and the shit eating grin he'll have as the GOP caucus erupts into raucous applause.

        by Jonze on Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 07:57:00 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I don't see either Lisa or McAdams doing that now (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Kimball Cross, TofG

          at least pending the next round of polling.  It's nearly certain that Miller's slide will continue, to the benefit of both the other two.  McAdams will believe (with some merit) that he has the momentum, so why would he enter into a cointoss when he can win the whole thing?  But the unpredictability of a 3-way dynamic gives Lisa plenty of room to think she'll win too, so I don't see her willingly stepping away from her senate seat.  Only if her own polling slipped badly away -- say Miller rebounds to 42, and McAdams gets to 39 and is stuck there, AND there's somehow solid data to show that if Lisa drops more of her people go to McAdams than Miller.  

          I just don't see that.  But this will be interesting to watch to the end.

      •  If I'm Kendrik Meek, I'm not sure I want to be (0+ / 0-)

        in a closed room with Charlie Crist.

        Better than being locked in there with Marco Rubio or Rick Scott, though.

        Umm, that's PRESIDENT Obama and SENATOR Franken, mr. o'reilly.

        by filby on Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 08:22:41 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Charlie Crist screwed up (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Kimball Cross, TofG, keetz4

          and in the process screwed Florida.  He should have switched to Dem over a year ago and Meeks wouldn't have won the primary and it would be the new Dem Senator from Florida due to all the anti-Rubio voters.  

          •  A year ago (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Kimball Cross, filby

            Crist was a shoo in for the Republican nomination, why on earth would he have switched?

            And, who's to say that he would have been able to win the primary as a Democrat, if we have seen anything over the past year, it is that primary voters want the representive of their party to, you know, belong to it.

            If there is anything I have learned from Scooby Doo, it is that the only thing to fear is crooked real estate developers.

            by JakeC on Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 08:32:20 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  Love the idea of the unity rally ... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Bonsai66, TofG, Jonze

      ... but I don't think that will ever happen.  Still, it's nice to dream.

    •  Right there with you, Jonze. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Jonze

      Nothing against Meeks, but I'm a pragmatist at heart.

      "I think I ate your chocolate squirrel." - Brick Tamland

      by Bonsai66 on Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 07:58:01 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I still stand by my estimates. (13+ / 0-)

    We will hold the House by 9 - 15 seats, and the Senate by 4 - 6 seats.

    Dems are smoking right now!

    And the Teabaggers are scratching their groins right now, wonder what the heck happened in the last week.

    Closers get coffee.

    "I think I ate your chocolate squirrel." - Brick Tamland

    by Bonsai66 on Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 07:53:31 PM PDT

  •  Hmmm, things seem to be happening in Florida. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Bonsai66, TofG, Prairie D

    Rubio's lead has gone from double digits to 8 pts.  

    The only thing that will save the sorry asses of the Democrats is the Republicans.

    by ThAnswr on Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 07:56:24 PM PDT

  •  Angle at 50% - (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Kimball Cross, TofG

    Reid and Angle are lucky "Neither" won't be on the ballot.  They would both be rather embarrassed.

    That debate was awful to watch.

    I'm not a witch - I'm you.

    by Pierro Sraffa on Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 07:56:39 PM PDT

  •  Pallone (D), not R in (NJ-06) (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SoCalLiberal, Bonsai66

    Here we are now Entertain us I feel stupid and contagious

    by Scarce on Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 07:57:49 PM PDT

  •  If Ras says Angle is up by 3, that's good (6+ / 0-)

    I think their house effect is at least three points, right?

    They tortured people to get false confessions to fraudulently justify our invading Iraq.

    by Ponder Stibbons on Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 07:59:07 PM PDT

  •  The fact that 24% (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG, keetz4

    could even think about voting for Palladino makes me feel sick.

    •  They aren't thinking (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TofG

      24% pull the lever for whoever has the (R) next to his name.

      Not unique to Republicans, it's reality- one of the problems with the whole idea of having Meek drop out in Florida and endorsing Crist- since Meek would still be on the ballot, he'd still get votes, even while screaming for people to vote for someone else.

      If there is anything I have learned from Scooby Doo, it is that the only thing to fear is crooked real estate developers.

      by JakeC on Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 08:04:07 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  roughly the same # who stood by Bush (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TofG

      Jr. until the end.  

  •  Oh, LOOK! A governor's race, in... (7+ / 0-)

    TEXAS!
    We have yet to have a Gubernatorial debate here in Texas.

    "Chicken" Rick Perry won't debate his opponents.

    On a bright note, he has gotten exactly TWO newspaper endorsements of any significance in the entire state of Texas!  I believe it has been the Waco Tribune-Herald and the Midland Reporter-Telegram.  http://www.texastribune.org/...

    Th Dallas Morning News, fer goodness' sake, has endorsed White:

    http://www.dallasnews.com/...

    Trust me, Perry tells voters, I know what I'm doing.

    But in fact, Perry, 60, has done relatively little during a decade at the helm of state government. He can lay claim to few signature achievements. He lacks allies in the Legislature, and whether the issue is school finance, transportation or juvenile justice, he has not managed to see needed reforms through to conclusion.
    . . .
    And now, with a deficit of up to $21 billion looming, more than budget bravado and a "taxes bad" mantra will be required to keep Texas on solid financial footing.
    . . .
    Perry surrounds himself with a sea of people echoing his views. And he wields his power forcefully, making clear that those who dare to disagree with him can be replaced.
    . . .
    Perry's strident, tea party tone and strong-arm style won't serve Texas well for another four years. While White's focus has been on finding solutions in Austin, Perry has done little more than rail against Washington's problems. The governor's gaze seems to have drifted from the tasks at hand, as he openly discusses his aspirations of elevating his national profile.

    Lessee, here...

    - Few concrete accomplishments...check

    - Does not play well with others...check

    - No progress on education, transportation, or juvenile justice...check

    - Skyrocketing $21b state debt...check

    - Power-tripper...check

    - Tea-Partier...check

    - Rails against Washington...check

    - National aspirations...check

    Folks, this is a BIG DEAL!  The DaMN has not endorsed a Democrat for Governor in nearly 25 YEARS!  And White needs North Texas to win.  This can't hurt.

    Why, even the Amarillo Globe News can't bring itself to endorse Perry (and THAT's saying something!):

    http://www.newschannel10.com/...

    Nah...nothin' happpenin' here.

    Send Bill White some love:

    http://www.billwhitefortexas

    Torture is Wrong! We live near W so you don't have to. Send love.

    by tom 47 on Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 08:00:55 PM PDT

    •  I'm cautiously optimistic. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TofG

      I don't know how true this is but I've read that White flirting with the Senate bid initially is hurting him with some on-the-fence voters because the Senate is a more partisan position and they're worried that his initial desire for the Senate gig means he'll be a partisan rather than a largely non-partisan State executive.  

      Imagine Pelosi having to have the gavel over to Boehner, and the shit eating grin he'll have as the GOP caucus erupts into raucous applause.

      by Jonze on Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 08:03:36 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Not Shocked To See Midland.... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      FORUS50, TofG

      Go for Perry. Is there a more conservative metro area than Midland-Odessa in America?!? I honestly doubt it.

      Can't believe it's been ten days since we've seen a poll out of this state.

      "You share your young with the wolves of the nation...
      Theres nothing left til you pray for salvation"
      Black Rebel Motorcycle Club "American X"

      by Steve Singiser on Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 08:04:58 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  So I guess we don't have any polling (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser, TofG

    on teabagger attitudes toward freedom of the press, eh?

    •  Nah, But I Think We Already Know... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TofG, Casual Wednesday

      The answer. Since the media is a buncha evil lib'ruls, they have no rights in the "real American" order. Just ask that dude in Alaska....

      "You share your young with the wolves of the nation...
      Theres nothing left til you pray for salvation"
      Black Rebel Motorcycle Club "American X"

      by Steve Singiser on Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 08:05:49 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Is Obama going to Nevada? (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, citizenx, TofG, FreeStateDem

    He is very popular there and he and Michelle can GOTV like no one else!  Harry needs help with closing this.

  •  Pallone is a Democrat!!!!! (0+ / 0-)

    Why do you have Frank Pallone marked as a Republican? He is a Democrat!

  •  If the poll has a (D) or an (R) beside it (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, citizenx

    ...I'm at the point now where I just automatically regard it as propaganda for either side.

    It's like the pollsters aren't even trying anymore to make their numbers look plausible.

    Here we are now Entertain us I feel stupid and contagious

    by Scarce on Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 08:03:23 PM PDT

    •  Basically. (0+ / 0-)

      Imagine Pelosi having to have the gavel over to Boehner, and the shit eating grin he'll have as the GOP caucus erupts into raucous applause.

      by Jonze on Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 08:04:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  There Is An Alternate Theory On That... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SoCalLiberal, davehouck, filby

      Not saying I buy it, but Charlie Cook has argued that he thinks partisan polls may well be more reliable than public polling, because their future employment is based on being right. Also, campaigns will pay to get the polls done right, while some media outlets will do it on the cheap (look, for example, to Fox going to that bargain bin Ras substitute--Pulse Opinion Research).

      "You share your young with the wolves of the nation...
      Theres nothing left til you pray for salvation"
      Black Rebel Motorcycle Club "American X"

      by Steve Singiser on Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 08:08:35 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Under that theory (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin

        Wouldn't partisan polls generally end up in agreement?

        I did think I read somewhere that if you average the partisan polls together you did get an accurate read, possibly more accurate than averaging only non-partisan polls.

        If there is anything I have learned from Scooby Doo, it is that the only thing to fear is crooked real estate developers.

        by JakeC on Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 08:11:14 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  No, Because.... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Prairie D

          A campaign may release one out of four polls that they release, or one in twenty. You aren't gonna release a poll that shows you in deep doo-doo, for example.

          I think if you have two partisan polls, for each campaign, meeting in the middle is not a bad idea. So, if the GOP says DeFazio +6, and he says he's up 14...it wouldn't be crazy to presume that he is up 10.

          "You share your young with the wolves of the nation...
          Theres nothing left til you pray for salvation"
          Black Rebel Motorcycle Club "American X"

          by Steve Singiser on Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 08:14:35 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  So (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            itskevin

            That kind of ends up with the same result- you can't trust partisan polls, because they only release the one's they want you to see, even if their own data shows it likely to be an outlier.

            Besides, isn't it likely (and, if there are any experts, you can tell me whether this is true or not) that campaigns will ask pollsters to get results based on specific turn out numbers, numbers that may be unrealistic but still give them the result they want to trumpet (and, which still gives them an idea of where they really stand- if they skew the results their own way, and end up down 5, they know they are actually in trouble, whereas if they end up tied or up, they know that while there position isn't quite that good, they are still in decent shape).

            If there is anything I have learned from Scooby Doo, it is that the only thing to fear is crooked real estate developers.

            by JakeC on Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 08:21:47 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  I'm thinking Charlie Cook (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        askew, itskevin, Steve Singiser

        ..referred to campaign polls which aren't released and then these partisan polls which are made specifically for public consumption, and was differentiating as such.

        I could be wrong but that was my take on what he was saying.

        Here we are now Entertain us I feel stupid and contagious

        by Scarce on Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 08:12:44 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I'd like to know which #$%kin' genuis come up (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin, Zack from the SFV, thurst

        with POS as the name for a polling firm.  Every time I see terrible numbers for Dems and then see "Public Opinion Strategies, I think, "No problem!  It's just a POS poll!"

        Umm, that's PRESIDENT Obama and SENATOR Franken, mr. o'reilly.

        by filby on Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 08:18:06 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Hmmmm (0+ / 0-)

        We'll have to see.  

      •  But you are speaking about (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Frank

        ALL the firm's polling for a particular candidate or organization. What WE are allowed to see are cherry-picked results from that firm's polling that represent the very best results for the candidate. And you never know - a firm could produce two sets of results: one for private analysis and one for public consumption.

    •  Pretty much right (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      davehouck

      You would think that there would be some need to maintain integrity in these things.

      Fun story- my wife got polled tonight about our local Congressional Rep (a Democrat who I have no reason to believe is in any danger of losing).  She got asked basic questions, what she thought of him and his opponent (she had never heard of him), blah, blah- she then got asked a question that went something like this:  "If you learned that OPPONENT was actually a puppy killing Nazi, would you be more or less likely to vote for him?"  She laughed, told the pollster it was pretty obvious who was paying for the poll, the pollster got defensive, and said, no, no, there's another question afterwards to balance it out.  That questions- "If you learned that DEMOCRATIC CONGRESSMAN spent his weekend volunteering at a food shelter, fighting crime as a superhero, and resurrecting all the dead puppies killed by OPPONENT, would that make you more or less likely to vote for him?"

      If there is anything I have learned from Scooby Doo, it is that the only thing to fear is crooked real estate developers.

      by JakeC on Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 08:09:31 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  PA-07: WTF? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, Casual Wednesday

    The Teamsters have rescinded their endorsement of Bryan Lentz (D) for.... WHAT???

    The union typically endorses Democrats, and has thrown their support behind democrats Dan Onorato, a gubernatorial candidate, and U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak in his bid for Senate.

    Sources say the tiff stems from a bill Lentz sponsored that cracks down on construction firms that misclassify workers to avoid paying taxes. Gov. Rendell signed the bill into law by last week.

    Umm.... that really makes it look like the Teamsters back corrupt construction firms.

  •  CA-47 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, Zack from the SFV

    I'd be damn surprised if Loretta Sanchez loses. Note MOE on that poll of 5.7%.

    this is, I admit, a completely unscientific poll of my gut feelings, with a probable MOE over 100%.

    Last night you mentioned CA-20 as possibly in play, I'd wager Sanchez is safer than Costa.

    "Great is the guilt of an unnecessary war" - John Adams

    by esquimaux on Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 08:09:20 PM PDT

    •  Don't Necessarily Disagree.... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      esquimaux

      I think the GOP campaign was trying to make a big thing that Sanchez' comment a few weeks back about the ethnicity thing had really cost her in the race. My take: if she isn't down after the hullaballoo about that, she isn't likely to be down two weeks from now.

      "You share your young with the wolves of the nation...
      Theres nothing left til you pray for salvation"
      Black Rebel Motorcycle Club "American X"

      by Steve Singiser on Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 08:12:21 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Keeping Bobby Bright's seat (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG

    isn't a real prize.  Hopefully we can get more donations to save seats in Arkansas, Virginia, California, and perhaps New Jersey.

    "We cannot build our own future without helping others to build theirs." -President Bill Clinton

    by Scott M94 on Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 08:14:29 PM PDT

  •  hawaii (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, SoCalLiberal, TofG

    is very dark blue.

    Inouye is very popular. he will recieve more than 60% of the vote.

  •  These polls are encouraging (5+ / 0-)

    for the most part.  I think we've got a strong chance to take the Florida Governor's Mansion.  I'm taking all these GOP polls with a grain of salt.  Loretta Sanchez will win reelection, I'm pretty positive.  

    •  Sink should also be encouraged (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SoCalLiberal

      by voter registration numbers reported by the division of elections yesterday.

      Democrats have gained more than 400,000 registered voters over Republicans since the 2006 governor's race, which is just about the margin of victory for Charlie Crist back then.

      A fool will lose tomorrow reaching back for yesterday.

      by kansasr on Tue Oct 19, 2010 at 02:53:02 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I'm glad Pierello is only (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Kimball Cross, TofG

    down 6%.  It means he's still got some shot at actually pulling off the upset.  

  •  Well Gallup's at it again... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG

    one of their 17% GOP generic poll leads in a low turnout and a 11% lead in their high turnout model.

  •  Pallone only up 1? (0+ / 0-)

    Yeah right.  Half these polls are just propaganda for the mainstream media to form a narrative of.

    •  Pallone is my Congressman (0+ / 0-)

      I haven't even seen ads for the Republican...anywhere!  I call bullshit on that poll having him up by only one point. He'll win handily!

      A village can not reorganize village life to suit the village idiot.

      by METAL TREK on Tue Oct 19, 2010 at 09:43:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Could Blunt (R-MO) be defeated this round? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LSdemocrat

    that would be a major coup.  

    •  The MO Dem campaign is finally getting competent (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Kimball Cross

      Robin Carnahan is finally running some positive ads featuring her in front of the camera and the DSCC seems to be nearly constantly running a new ad against Blunt that is clear and to the point about his ties to Wall Street.

      I don't know if we'll be able to complete the comeback given the overall climate, but it's finally nice to see clear and compelling pro-Carnahan and anti-Blunt ads on the airwaves.

  •  Two things. (0+ / 0-)
    1. For the people who read my comment yesterday on the AZ poll that I was going to do a diary within the next couple of hours- sorry, took a bit longer than I thought, and I passed out at around 2:30 AM (I'm in Europe). It's going to be out today though. Writing the draft right now and releasing it later when more people read it.
    1. Be wary of just WHO the internal pollster is that releases data. Not all internal polls are alike, which is why I really hate Nate's rule of thumb of subtracting 6 from the commissioning candidate of every internal poll.

    Among the Democratic pollsters, Anzalone seems to be most willing to put their thumb on the scale- they have a very, very strong Dem house effect, and I'm not sure if subtracting 6 from their candidates is even enough. In terms of raw percentage, I'd say about 4, in terms of margin, about 8%. (By the way, I'm not making up this data, I have a prediction model.) The same goes for Mellman Group polls.

    Greenberg, Quinlan and Rosner (or GQR) has also a Dem House effect, but it's much less than for Anzalone. As a rule of thumb, subtract about 2.5 for raw vote or 5 for margin.

    Grove Insight has a pretty huge slant (about 3.5 for raw vote, you can calculate margin yourself, haha), as do Benenson and Lake Research (but only for internal polling being released, Celinda Lake's newspaper polls are better).

    Bennet, Petts, Normington is about on GQR's level, I'm not sure if there's enough data (for the other smaller internal pollsters like Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin and Ass.) to be significant.

    The GOP pollsters are much better, probably because they don't have to select among their polls so much to find good news they can release.
    Despite that terrible IL-10 poll, We Ask America isn't actually all that  bad, they have no real noticeable House effect.

    Wilson Research has about a 2.5% house effect (still, raw vote, as for all values unless otherwise mentioned).

    Voter Consumer Research actually has a small lean towards the Democrats, about 1%. Probably they'd be really lefty as public pollsters. Cross Target also has no noticeable lean.
    National Research does, about 2% towards the Republicans, as does American Viewpoint. Barry Zeplowitz has about a 3% lean. Same for Magellan. McLaughlin has about a 1.5% lean.

    The most prolific GOP internal pollster, POS, has about a 1% lean (raw, 2% margin) towards the GOP, so they're actually pretty reliable even for public consumers. They're very professional, so I think I'd take a leaked POS poll over many public polls.

    Note, BTW, that both Rasmussen and SurveyUSA have a stronger lean towards the GOP than any GOP-affiliated pollster does. Rasmussen's House Effect is about 3.5% in terms of raw vote, 7% for margin, Survey USA's is 4%(8% margin).

    Quinnipiac and PPP both have no noticeable House effect.

    Support Dennis McDonald and Montana Democrats in the 2010 election!

    by twohundertseventy on Tue Oct 19, 2010 at 12:45:49 AM PDT

  •  99 Democratic Seats in Play? (0+ / 0-)

    Politico Reporting 99 Dem seats in play (0+ / 0-)
    Politico is reporting 99 Democratic seats are in play

    http://www.politico.com/...

    Reason polls may be understating Dem losses may be illustrated by early voting in North Carolina.  Republican male voting (early voting) is far higher than the norm.  In 2008, Dems enjoyed a 3:1 advantage in early voting; ratio this year is almost 1:1.

    http://www.newsobserver.com/...

    The polls are using likely voter patterns to determine probable outcomes, if R turnout is higher than expected and/or D turnout depressed the polls will understate the size of the Democratic losses.

    Even worse from Democratic perspective -- If there are early heavy losses in the East (likely) and Midwest (almost a certainty) then that "wave" should further depress D turnout and invigorate Republicans making races in Nevada, Washington, California more likely to go in the Republican win column.

    •  Yes and in other states... (0+ / 0-)

      It seems early voting is favoring DEMS. I've went on & on about the LV models used this cycle,I mean Gallup has for their respondents 54% calling themselves conservaties, while only 27% say they are moderates,utterly useless polling.

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site