A surprisingly quiet polling weekend has lasted into the week, as this is a much less data-heavy Monday than I would have anticipated. Even with the weekly "poll dump" from our buddies at the DCCC, this is a day where the poll count drops back into the 20s for the first time in quite a while.
In all, we are looking at 26 new polls today, and the bulk of them (and this has been a rarity, as well) show some Democratic momentum building. We have an "endangered Dem" up by a dozen in a public poll, while another one shows private numbers with a double-digit lead. One GOP open seat might be more vulnerable than once thought, and one Dem open seat is no longer even remotely vulnerable.
All this (and more!) in the Monday edition of the Wrap...
- Florida Senate (Suffolk Univ):
Marco Rubio (R) 39%, Charlie Crist (I) 31%, Kendrick Meek (D) 22%
- Missouri Senate (PPP):
Roy Blunt (R) 46%, Robin Carnahan (D) 41%
- Utah Senate (Dan Jones and Assoc):
Mike Lee (R) 53%, Sam Granato (D) 31%
Very little Senate polling (although both Fox and CNN will no doubt add to the data within the next two days). Worth noting that the Missouri Senate poll by PPP (which shows Democrat Robin Carnahan more competitive than she has been in months) was a poll conducted for Carnahan's campaign. Both the Florida and Utah numbers are not terribly different from the data that has come before. It is becoming clear that as long as the Florida Senate race is a three-way challenge, Marco Rubio is in a reasonably unassailable position.
- Alabama-02 (G.Q.R.--D):
Rep. Bobby Bright (D) 51%, Martha Roby (R) 39%
- Arkansas-01 (Talk Business/Hendrix College):
Rick Crawford (R) 42%, Chad Causey (D) 34%, Others 4%
- Arkansas-01 (Anzalone Liszt--D):
Chad Causey (D) 44%, Rick Crawford (R) 42%
- Arkansas-02 (Talk Business/Hendrix College):
Tim Griffin (R) 50%, Joyce Elliott (D) 38%, Others 5%
- Arkansas-03 (Talk Business/Hendrix College):
Steve Womack (R) 59%, David Whitaker (D) 21%
- Arkansas-04 (Talk Business/Hendrix College):
Rep. Mike Ross (D) 52%, Beth Anne Rankin (R) 34%, Others 3%
- California-47 (Public Opinion Strategies--R):
Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D) 39%, Van Tran (R) 39%, Others 5%
- Massachusetts-10 (MassINC Polling):
Bill Keating (D) 46%, Jeff Perry (R) 43%, Others 5%
- New Jersey-06 (National Research--R):
Rep. Frank Pallone (D) 44%, Anna Little (R) 43%
- New York-25 (Siena College):
Rep. Dan Maffei (D) 51%, Ann Marie Buerkle (R) 39%
- Oregon-04 (Grove Insight--D):
Rep. Peter DeFazio (D) 53%, Art Robinson (R) 39%
- Oregon-05 (Moore Information--R):
Scott Bruun (R) 44%, Rep. Kurt Schrader (D) 40%
- Pennsylvania-15 (Muhlenberg College):
Rep. Charlie Dent (R) 49%, John Callahan (D) 32%, Others 5%
- Virginia-05 (Roanoke College):
Rob Hurt (R) 46%, Rep. Tom Perriello (D) 40%, Others 1%
Lots of House polling on the menu today, including some races thought to be closer than they apparently are. Republicans have crowed about the opportunity to beat sophomore Rep. Dan Maffei in upstate New York, but a new Siena poll gives Maffei a double-digit edge. In the "right back at ya" department, Congressman Peter DeFazio responds to last week's GOP poll (showing Art Robinson within single digits) by releasing his own numbers showing a much wider advantage. Arkansas-01 looks a little more competitive than The Hill's poll last week indicated, even in the public poll by Talk Business. The open-seat battle on the Cape in Massachusetts finally gets numbers, and while the Dems are out in front, it is clearly quite close.
- Florida Governor (Suffolk Univ):
Alex Sink (D) 45%, Rick Scott (R) 38%, Others 4%
- New Hampshire Governor (Univ of New Hampshire):
Gov. John Lynch (D) 51%, John Stephen (R) 38%
- New York Governor (New York Times):
Andrew Cuomo (D) 59%, Carl Paladino (R) 24%
- Utah Governor (Dan Jones and Assoc):
Gov. Gary Herbert (R) 58%, Peter Corroon (D) 33%
- Wisconsin Governor (St. Norberts College):
Scott Walker (R) 50%, Tom Barrett (D) 41%
It is now pretty indisputable that Alex Sink is at least a slight favorite to be the next Governor of Florida, as everyone except for Rasmussen now puts Rick Scott several points behind the Democrat in the Sunshine State. Meanwhile, in the Empire State, the good news is that Andrew Cuomo now has a better two-to-one lead over the trainwreck that is Republican nominee Carl Paladino. The bad news? That there are still a quarter of the voters in New York that would entertain the idea of voting for that guy. In an interesting twist, pollster Dan Jones implies that a backlash against tough negative ads might be insulating Governor Gary Herbert in Utah. If so, that'd be just about the first time I've heard of something like that. I would be much, much more likely to attribute that widening gap to GOP voters in one of the most conservative states in the Union simply coming home.
Rasmussen mostly upholds the status quo today. If there is any good news for Dems, it is in the most GOP-friendly result from the quartet of polls from Rasmussen. Because if Rasmussen is really saying that Hawaii institution Dan Inouye is only up by thirteen points on Republican Cam Cavasso, one really has to wonder if their numbers on the governor's race last week were legit.
HI-Sen: Sen. Dan Inouye (D) 53%, Cam Cavasso (R) 40%
MA-Gov: Gov. Patrick (D) 47%, Baker (R) 42%, Cahill (I) 6%
NV-Sen: Sharron Angle (R) 50%, Sen. Harry Reid (D) 47%
WA-Sen: Sen. Patty Murray (D) 49%, Dino Rossi (R) 46%