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Summary:
 NE has 3 reps: all R.
 NV has 3 reps: 2 D, 1 R.
 NH has 2 reps: both D.  
 NJ has 13 reps: 8 D, 5 R.
 NM has 3 reps: All D.

Possibly vulnerable:
 NE-02 (R)
 NJ-03 (D)
 NV-03 (D)
 NH-01 (D)
 NH-02 (D)
 NJ-03 (D)
 NJ-07 (R)
 NM-01 (D)
 NM-02 (D)

Sources:
House vote in 2008 from Wikipedia
VoteView (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)
Race Tracker
Obama vote by CD from Swing State (other stuff there too).
and my previous diaries.
FEC
and Steve Singiser's diaries here on daily Kos (which I checked for about a month).
=========================================================================
District: NE-01
Location Eastern NE, except for Omaha.  Borders MO and IA  map
Cook PVI R + 11
Representative Jeff Fortenberry (R)
VoteView 267
First elected 2004
2008 margin  70-30 over Max Yashrin
2006 margin  58-42
2004 margin 54-43
Obama margin 44-54
Bush margin 2004 36-64
Current opponents Ivy Harper
Demographics 51st fewest Blacks (1.4%)  
Assessment Safe for Republicans. Fortenberry has $650K COH, Harper has very little

District: NE-02
Location  Omaha and suburbs  map
Cook PVI R + 6
Representative Lee Terry (R)
VoteView 373
First elected 1998
2008 margin  52-48 over Jim Esch (D)
2006 margin  55-45
2004 margin 61-36
Obama margin 50-49
Bush margin 2004 39-60
Current opponents Tom White
Demographics  Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Possible.  NE-02 went narrowly for Obama, and this is a possible pickup. As of 9/30, Terry has about $300K COH, and White an impressive $270K
SSP rating: Likely R
My rating: Likely R

District: NE-03
Location The western 3/4 of the state, bordering SD, WY, CO and KS  map
Cook PVI R + 24
Representative Adrian Smith (R)
VoteView 371
First elected 2006
2008 margin  77-23 over Jay Stoddard
2006 margin  55-45
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 30-68
Bush margin 2004 75-24
Current opponents Rebekah Davis
Demographics  33rd most rural (53.9%), tied for fewest Blacks (0.3%), 9th most Republican
Assessment Safe for Republicans. As of 9/30 Smith has $370K COH, Davis has little.

District: NV-01
Location   Las Vegas  map
Cook PVI D + 10
Representative Shelley Berkley
VoteView 180
First elected 1998
2008 margin  68-28 over Kenneth Wegner
2006 margin  65-31
2004 margin  66-31
Obama margin 64-34
Bush margin 2004 42-57
Current opponents Kenneth Wegner
Demographics  55th most Latinos (28.2%)
Assessment Safe.  Berkley has $1.2 million, Wegner has little

District: NV-02
Location Almost the whole state, except for Las Vegas and suburbs, bordering CA, OR, ID, UT, and AZ  map
Cook PVI R + 5
Representative Dean Heller (R)
VoteView 384
First elected 2006
2008 margin  52-41 over Jill Derby (remainder split)
2006 margin  50-45
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 49-49
Bush margin 2004 57-41
Current opponents Nancy Price
Demographics   21st most veterans (17.1%)
Assessment The 2008 race wasn't exactly decisive,  but it's probably safe this year. As of 9/30, Heller has $750K COH, Price has almost nothing

District: NV-03
Location A Y shaped district of Las Vegas suburbs  map
Cook PVI D + 2
Representative Dina Titus (D)
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin   47-42 over Jon Porter
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 55-43
Bush margin 2004 50-49
Current opponents Joe Heck
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment  Titus won with under 50% of the vote which is less than superlative.  As of 9/30, Titus has about $215 K COH, Heck just over $400K.  A poll has Heck up 47-44
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating:

District: NH-01
Location The eastern part of NH, bordering ME  map
Cook PVI Even
Representative Carol Shea-Porter (D)
VoteView 134
First elected 2006
2008 margin  52-46 over Jeb Bradley
2006 margin  51-49
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 53-46
Bush margin 2004 51-48
Current opponents Frank Guinta
Demographics  55th fewest in poverty (6.7%), 14th most Whites (95.1%), 24th fewest Blacks (0.7%)
Assessment Vulnerable, but perhaps less so than in 2008.  As of 9/30, Shea-Porter, never a huge fund raiser, has half a million COH, Guinta has $300K but lots of debt.  A recent poll had Guinta up 48-34
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating: Tossup

District: NH-02
Location The western part of NH, bordering Canada, VT, and MA  map
Cook PVI D + 3
Representative Paul Hodes (D) Retiring to run for Senate
VoteView NA
First elected NA
2008 margin  NA
2006 margin  NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 56-43
Bush margin 2004 47-52
Current opponents  Ann Kuster (D), Charlie Bass (R).
Demographics  57th most rural (48.3%), 50th fewest in poverty (6.4%), 14th most Whites (95.1%), 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%).
Assessment An open seat is never safe. As of 9/30, Bass has $370K COH, and Kuster about the same.  A recent poll has Kuster up, 43-36, but another one had Bass up, 45-42
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating: Lean D.  This is a slightly Democratic district.

District: NJ-01
Location A T shaped district in southwestern NJ, bordering PA and a tiny bit of DE map
Cook PVI D + 12
Representative Robert Andrews (D)
VoteView 112.5
First elected 1990
2008 margin  72-26 over Dale Glading
2006 margin  Unopposed
2004 margin 65-33
Obama margin 65-34
Bush margin 2004 39-61
Current opponents Dale Glading
Demographics   Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe.  Andrews has about $400K COH, Glading has little. A poll had Andrews up by a lot.

District: NJ-02
Location Southernmost NJ, on the Delaware Bay and Atlantic  map
Cook PVI D + 1
Representative Frank LoBiondo (R)
VoteView 244
First elected 1994
2008 margin  59-39 over David Kurkowksi.
2006 margin  62-36
2004 margin 65-33
Obama margin 54-45
Bush margin 2004 50-49
Current opponents Gerald Sakura
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Long shot.  Although this is an increasingly D district, LoBiondo seems popular.  LoBiondo has over $1 million COH, no info on Sakura.  A poll had LoBiondo up by a lot.

District: NJ-03
Location  The southernmost of several CDs that stretch east-west across NJ, this one from the Atlantic to PA.  map
Cook PVI R + 1
Representative John Adler (D)
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 52-48 over Chris Myers
2006 margin  NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 52-47
Bush margin 2004 51-49
Current opponents Jon Runyon
Demographics 20th fewest in poverty (5.1%)
Assessment Vulnerable, Adler is a freshman in a swing district.  As of 9/30, Adler has $1.6 million COH, Runyan about $400K.  A poll from last month showed Adler up, 38-30, another had him up 43-40
SSP rating: Lean D
My rating: Lean D

District: NJ-04
Location Another east west strip, more or less in the middle of the state, including part of Trenton.  Bordering PA and the Atlantic  map
Cook PVI R + 6
Representative Christopher Smith (R)
VoteView 243
First elected 1980
2008 margin  66-32 over Josh Zeitz
2006 margin  66-33
2004 margin  67-32
Obama margin 47-52
Bush margin 2004 44-56
Current opponents  Howard Kleinhendler
Demographics  63rd highest income (median = $54K)
Assessment Safe for Repubs  Smith has about $300K COH, Kleinhendler has little.

District: Northernmost NJ, bordering PA and NY, including NYC suburbs  NJ-05
Location map
Cook PVI R + 7
Representative Scott Garrett (R)
VoteView 415
First elected 2002
2008 margin  56-42 over Dennis Shulman
2006 margin 55-44
2004 margin 58-41
Obama margin 45-54
Bush margin 2004 57-43
Current opponents Tod Thiese
Demographics 6th highest income (median = $73K), 55th fewest Blacks (1.5%)
Assessment Safe for R.  As of 9/30, Garrett has $800K COH, Thiese has little.

District: NJ-06
Location A strange, thready district, running from a NYC suburb (Plainfield) south and east to Long Beach and then south to Asbury Park  map
Cook PVI D + 8
Representative Frank Pallone (D)
VoteView 35.5
First elected 1988
2008 margin  67-32 over Robert McLeod
2006 margin  69-30
2004 margin  67-31
Obama margin 60-38
Bush margin 2004 43-57
Current opponents Anna Little
Demographics 67th highest income (median = $56K)
Assessment Pallone has over $4 million (!) COH.  Little has about $100K.  A recent Republican poll has Pallone up 44-43.  A slightly earlier poll has Pallone up, 53-41
SSP rating: Likely D
My rating: Likely D

District: NJ-07
Location Another strange shape, running east west, but shaped like the Greek letter ξ. map
Cook PVI R + 3
Representative Leonard Lance (R)
VoteView 252
First elected 2008
2008 margin  51-42 over Linda Stender
2006 margin  NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 50-49
Bush margin 2004 53-47
Current opponents  Ed Potosnak.
Demographics 4th wealthiest (median income = $75K)
Assessment Vulnerable, but probably not this year.  Lance has $350K COH, Potosnak about $90K

District: NJ-08
Location More NYC suburbs, including Wayne, Patterson, and West Orange  map
Cook PVI D + 10
Representative Bill Pascrell (D)
VoteView 67
First elected 1996
2008 margin  71-28 over Ron Stratten
2006 margin  71-28
2004 margin 69-29
Obama margin 63-36
Bush margin 2004 41-59
Current opponents Roland Stratten
Demographics 41st fewest veterans 8.3%)
Assessment Safe.  Pascrell has $1.5 million COH, Stratten has little.

District: NJ-09
Location Close NYC suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 9
Representative Steven Rothman (D)
VoteView 102.5
First elected 1996
2008 margin  68-32 over Vincent Micco
2006 margin  71-28
2004 margin  68-32
Obama margin 61-38
Bush margin 2004 41-59
Current opponents Michael Agosta.
Demographics 48th fewest veterans (8.6%)
Assessment Safe. Rothman has $2 million COH, Agosta less than $100K and lots of debt.

District: NJ-10
Location Newark, and some NYC suburbs  map
Cook PVI D + 33
Representative Donald Payne (D)
VoteView 17
First elected 1988
2008 margin  Unopposed
2006 margin  Unopposed
2004 margin  No major party opposition
Obama margin 87-13
Bush margin 2004 18-82
Current opponents Michael Alonso
Demographics 25th fewest Whites (21.4%), 16th most Blacks (56.4%), 15th most Democratic
Assessment Safe.  Payne has over $1 million COH, no info on Alonso.

District: NJ-11
Location Central northern NJ, including Dover  map
Cook PVI R + 7
Representative Rodney Freylingheusen (R)
VoteView 276
First elected 1994
2008 margin  62-37 over Tom Wyka
2006 margin  62-37
2004 margin  68-31
Obama margin 45-54
Bush margin 2004 58-42
Current opponents Douglas Herbert
Demographics 2nd highest income (median = $79K)
Assessment Safe for R.  Freylinghausen has $650K COH, Herbert has little.

District: NJ-12
Location   Another east west strip, from north of Trenton (on the PA border) to NYC suburbs in the east, and almost to the Atlantic map
Cook PVI D + 5
Representative Rush Holt (D)
VoteView 38
First elected 1998
2008 margin  63-36 over Alan Bateman
2006 margin  66-34
2004 margin 59-40
Obama margin 41-58
Bush margin 2004 46-55
Current opponents  Scott Sipprelle.  Also a Green: Scott Baier
Demographics 15th highest median income ($70K)
Assessment Holt has $1.2 million COH, Sipprelle has $370K.  A recent poll has Holt up, 51-46
SSP rating: Lean D
My rating: Likely D. This is a very Democratic district. Holt has more money and better polls

District: NJ-13
Location Yet another strange shaped district, this one runs north-south along the Hudson River and the Atlantic, with a gap  map
Cook PVI D + 21
Representative Albio Sires (D)
VoteView 112.5
First elected 2006 (special election)
2008 margin  75-22 over Joseph Turula
2006 margin  78-19
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 75-25
Bush margin 2004 31-69
Current opponents  Henrietta Dwyer.
Demographics 12th fewest veterans (5.4%), 51st fewest Whites (32.3%), 26th most Latinos (47.6%)
Assessment Safe. Sires has over a quarter million, no info on Dwyer.

District: NM-01
Location Albuquerque and suburbs, and some desert  map
Cook PVI 275
Representative Martin Heinrich (D)
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin  55-45 over Darren White
2006 margin  NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 60-39
Bush margin 2004 48-51
Current opponents Jon Barela
Demographics  86th fewest Whites (48.5%),  92nd fewest Blacks (2.3%), 32nd most Latinos (42.6%)
Assessment Heinrich has $1 million COH, Barela $570K.  A poll had Heinrich up 48-41
SSP rating: Lean D
My rating: Likely D.  

District: NM-02
Location The southern half of NM, bordering AZ, TX, and Mexico map
Cook PVI R + 6
Representative Harry Teague (D)
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin  56-44 over Edward Tinsley
2006 margin  NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 49-50
Bush margin 2004 58-41
Current opponents Steve Pearce
Demographics   20th lowest income (median = $29K), 73rd fewest Whites (44.3%), 60th fewest Blacks (1.6%), 29th most Latinos (47.3%)
Assessment A district that went for McCain can't be considered safe for a freshman D.  But, OTOH, he did win in 2008.  Teague has $740K (but lots of debt) to Pearce's $880K.  A poll had Pearce up 46-42, another had him up 46-45
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating: Tossup

District: NM-03
Location Northern half of NM, including Santa Fe, bordering AZ, CO, OK, and TX, and touching corners with UT. map
Cook PVI D + 7
Representative Ben Ray Lujan (D)
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin  57-31 over Daniel East
2006 margin  NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 61-38
Bush margin 2004 46-54
Current opponents Tom Mullins
Demographics 68th fewest Whites (41.4%), 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%), 38th most Latinos (36.3%), 14th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatino (mostly 18.9% Native American)
Assessment Safe.  Lujan has $300K COH, Mullins about $90K
SSP rating: Likely D

Originally posted to plf515 on Tue Oct 19, 2010 at 07:12 AM PDT.

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