There has been quite a bit of news lately about Chinese efforts to monopolize the production of rare-earth minerals necessary for the manufacture of modern electronic devices. There is also a great deal of worry being expressed about competition for other resources, with a mostly political and macro-economic slant to the arguments about what we might do about the problem. It seems that most of this noise fails to address a larger and much more important problem. Let's leave the political aside.
Modern economic theory and business management assume that resources will ALWAYS be available to fuel and supply economic growth. Market forces will always result is the most efficient development and allocation of those resources. If a resource becomes scarce and expensive the laws of supply and demand and the attraction of higher profits will result in the production of more of that resource or the development of alternatives. Theory also assumes that there is no upward limit to our potential for growth. Continued prosperity simply requires the conversion of resources into goods and services and functional markets to allocate those things to consumers.
One major problem with all of this: As the human population grows past 6 billion (tripling in my lifetime), as basic resources such as fuel, soil, fresh water, and yes rare-earth minerals become scarcer and harder to find, common sense alone tells us that infinite growth on a finite planet is an economy for doomed fools. Political, and economic shell games can't change the fact that there is only ONE pea.
It would do us well to reflect on the basic laws of nature here, particularly the laws of thermodynamics. For those unwilling to do the heavy lifting, I'll make it simple: THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A FREE LUNCH. There is no magic car that runs on water, or solar cell on the roof that will meet today's large and dense energy demands. Most of the energy we use today took nature millions of years to create. We're burning it up in a few hundred. The very food we eat is in the store for us to buy because of a huge input of fossil fuel. I am not suggesting that we are collectively responsible for the reckless greed of the oil companies, but we are ALL consumers, large or small of the poison they sell.
The reality is grim folks. The long-term SUSTAINABLE population number for a world not fueled by coal and oil is, AT BEST, about one-third of the current 6+ billion. And even at that number, without the fixed nitrogen fertilizer inputs that now come from oil and natural gas, we will be living back on the farm, lucky to have ANY fuel at all for tractors and other machinery. Today's agriculture, with one farmer's fossil-fueled output feeding hundreds of city dwellers will be a thermodynamic impossibility.
I am at heart hopeful, and can imagine a simpler world where humans live in balance with the bounty of nature, and where we use our science and technology in wise and subtle ways to provide for our health and happiness. But, I also worry every day about the future of my grandchildren. I hope that we humans soon reach cultural maturity. We all are living at the top of a very precarious food chain, and this is true for Wild Oats customers, organic gardeners, and local foods fans too (I'm one of you). The real question is not "if?", but "when?". We must soon face the realities of unchecked population growth -- and whether we and our children can get from here to there without widespread famine and war.