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Democrats have dropped a seat to go to 52 in the Senate Snapshot. Still, with seven campaigns within less than 3%, the battleground is wider than ever. Anything between 49 and 55 remains quite plausible. Toss in Washington and Wisconsin, where polling has been close lately, and even 48 and 56 are not entirely out of the question.

Senate Competitive Campaigns Chart

Margins are based on the simple average of all published polls in which the majority of interviews were conducted on or after October 8th. No polls will be removed form the averages between now and Election Day. Only campaigns closer than 12.0% are listed. All polls used in the averages are taken from Click here for the Senate Snapshot methodology.

Seat outcome odds chart

Even though campaigns are not independent variables, polling averages are independent variables. They are treated as such in calculating this chart.

The difference between 48 and 56 Democratic Senators is massive in terms of partisan and policy outcomes. The number of votes separating those two outcomes is quite small, however.

As Kos wrote earlier today, it is indeed a game of inches. Every vote counts. One great way to help GOTV is to sign up to Call Out The Vote with our friends at the PCCC and DFA. Call Out The Vote puts you directly in touch with undecided and unlikely voters in key House and Senate campaigns featuring progressive champions. And if you have never done GOTV phone calls anymore, they will teach you how.

They have a special page made up for us, and you are invited to join in. We need to work as hard as we can right to the very end.

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Thu Oct 21, 2010 at 06:05 PM PDT.

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