The other day I wrote about the little burst of concern going on with NY-25 when a race that looked pretty safe had a couple days of buzz about Republican Ann Marie Buerkle getting a hopeful internal poll, and more importantly getting a little national attention from the NRCC Young Guns list.
Friday night quiet and a chance to look at the latest numbers and reflect on a week's lack of followup fireworks makes me feel a whole lot more confident in how Maffei is doing.
I was pretty sure he'd be fine, but I don't want a squeaker, I want a clear picture my local area is not going to turn into a battleground mirroring the absurd arguments being trotted out at the national level.
This region doesn't have time for that kind of distraction. We've got jobs to create and renewal to get going.
Squeaker? Not so much. More like a 12 point lead according to the latest Siena College / Syracuse Post Standard poll.
What jumps out most is this from the Post Standard:
Maffei, D-DeWitt, receives his strongest support from women and voters over age 55, according to the poll, the first independent survey of likely voters in the district.
That is absolutely critical when other races are working to get young voters out in order to counter the concerns about women and Baby Boomers not coming out for Democrats. To have that kind of voter confidence says a lot about Maffei and the inherent nature of district itself.
There is also this voter interview the Post Standard did:
A lot of the conservatives, not just Ann Marie Buerkle, seem to be pushing the policies that got us into trouble in the first place," said Rowoth, an enrolled Democrat.
He said Maffei seems "to be on the right side of most issues" he cares about, which included a vote for the stimulus bill.
"The stimulus worked, believe it or not," Rowoth said. "It just wasn’t enough."
That tells me that the Democrat's message may be finally cutting through to voters. About time.
My basic take is Maffei has enough resources and ground support to keep that kind of lead coming into next Tuesday.
And that Buerkle didn't capitalize on her moment of opportunity past a day or so. She got in a little more money, got a little bit of support in the conservative blogasphere, but didn't put out anything that gives her a hook into the real concerns of the district. There has been nothing coming from her campaign about what matters most to NY-25 voters.
Yesterday, the Gates-Chili Post endorsed Maffei. Their explanation was gorgeous in its straight clarity:
Incumbent Democrat Dan Maffei said the unprecedented challenges of the past two years were no time for government inaction. He said has spent much of his freshman term on the economy — trying to right the toppled financial apple cart and bringing jobs to his district, which stretches from Syracuse through all of Wayne County and into Webster, Penfield and Irondequoit in Monroe County.
Whereas Maffei sees government as a way to solve problems, Buerkle says government is the problem. Maffei’s pragmatism and problem-solving approach earn him our endorsement for a second two-year term.
To be sure, this is not over - voters in the district should be aware of what is coming next. It is symbolic of what is happening across the country.
Because voters are showing confidence in Maffei, and because Buerkle has not been able to use the national Tea Party approach to turn the district into something it's not, here's what the next week could bring:
...an independent group in Washington, American Crossroads, has reserved more than $400,000 in television air time for commercials against Maffei next week. American Crossroads is affiliated with Karl Rove, the former senior adviser and deputy chief of staff in George W. Bush’s White House.
Karl Rove. Right. That sounds like money completely wasted on a district that has already stayed unmoved by the Tea Party so far.
So I'm not going to spend my weekend worrying about NY-25. I'll pick some pumpkins and watch NY-23, NY-24, and NY-29 for excitement.