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The first week of early voting was completed yesterday in Florida. While Saturday showed some slight DEM improvements, the DEM share of the early voting is still running almost 7 percentage points below the share of the 2006 vote. Traditionally Democrats have won the early vote battle in Florida.

Absentee voting (vote by mail) by DEMs is also running a couple of points below the 2006 levels. Traditionally Republicans have won the absentee battle in Florida.

While the Republican Party of Florida is crowing about the significant changes in early and absentee levels compared to the 2008 general election levels, I do not believe this offers a fair comparison and that the 2006 off-year election is a better standard to measure what's going on.

Still, Democrats are going to have to turn on the election day GOTV effort if they are going overcome the Republicans advantage in absentee voting and the reversal of the Democrats advantage in early voting.

Charts are show below.

ABSEV1

ABSEV3

ABSEV2

ABSEV4

Originally posted to kansasr on Sun Oct 24, 2010 at 03:55 AM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Democrats Are Waiting To See If Meed Or Crist (9+ / 0-)

    will drop out before voting.  I voted in Florida yesterday.  

    •  Why doesn't one of them drop out? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      cscanzoni, reddbierd

      At this point, it's clear to everyone that they have no chance as long as they're both in. Even if it's too idealistic to expect a politician to drop out for the greater good, at this rate both Meek and Crist will get embarrassing defeats. Why not strike a deal? "I drop out and endorse you and you owe me a big favor(s)"

      Sigh. Maybe I shouldn't expect rational behavior when big egos are involved.

    •  Kind of late for one to drop out (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      rainmanjr, Kristina40, faloofa

      With just under 700,000 absentee ballots returned so far and just under 400,000 early votes cast (through Saturday), it would only have an impact on election day, and their name would still appear on the ballot.

      However, I believe many DEMs are waiting to the very last moment (including election day) to make up their mind in the Senate race and see if Meek's poll numbers make him a viable candidate (not so far) and if voting for Kendrick would just be a waste of their vote.

      A fool will lose tomorrow reaching back for yesterday.

      by kansasr on Sun Oct 24, 2010 at 04:19:30 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  What makes you think (4+ / 0-)

    that everyone votes for their own party line?  I went to vote with two registered republicans who voted an entire Dem ticket, creeped out by Rick Scott, Marco Rubio and Charlie Crist.

    Many republicans have been turned off by their party's scandals here in Florida and may feel similarly to my friends, yanevano...

    http://progressivesponsor.com Wooohooo! Alan Grayson IS my Congressman

    by YaNevaNo on Sun Oct 24, 2010 at 04:25:54 AM PDT

  •  I'm beginning to think (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    doc2, rainmanjr

    Meek may lose.

    Why don't you try reading the rules, Shankopotamus?

    by bugscuffle on Sun Oct 24, 2010 at 04:53:21 AM PDT

    •  shocking (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      doc2, tle, rainmanjr

      I thought I was the only one who'd reached that conclusion.  Certainly the polls, which give him a solid 22% wouldn't indicate weakness on his part.  

      I'll still vote for the dude, though.  Charlie isn't close enough to make me think he can beat Rubio, and even if he did, he wouldn't be a prize for us.

      There is no snooze button on a cat who wants breakfast.

      by puzzled on Sun Oct 24, 2010 at 05:35:29 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That's why I went ahead and voted. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        puzzled, rainmanjr

        Charlie isn't close enough to make me think he can beat Rubio

        I concluded that Rubio is going to win, so I might as well vote for the better choice.

        But I get the impression that there are a lot of Democrats who are waiting to see how it looks closer to the election.

        If Crist showed a big surge in the polls (which is looking very unlikely), then I would expect a flood of Meek votes headed his way.

        Looks to me like, in the Florida Senate race, we Democrats are toast.

        I am become Man, the destroyer of worlds

        by tle on Sun Oct 24, 2010 at 06:49:37 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  yep (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          kansasr, rainmanjr

          I voted for Meek as well.  My only consolation is if Rubio wins, it won't be a pickup for the Republicans, since Senator Placeholder is already there.

          There is no snooze button on a cat who wants breakfast.

          by puzzled on Sun Oct 24, 2010 at 07:46:04 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  lot of Democrats who are waiting..... (0+ / 0-)

          That would be me. I have always voted early, but not yet ready to vote for Crist, so I may wait until election day.

          I keep watching the polls and hoping for a miracle.

          It is so unfortunate for Democrats to have Crist in this race, who looks now as he will be responsible for the Tea Party darling Rubio to win.

          Daniel Ellsberg - "It was always a bad year to get out of Vietnam."

          by allenjo on Sun Oct 24, 2010 at 08:31:22 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  I am still not sure (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    rainmanjr, allenjo, FiredUpInCA

    who I am voting for.  I  saw Meek discussing his talking points last week for the first time and I like him, however, before that I was pretty sure I'd vote for Charlie.  Not that I love him, but I feel like he has a better chance against Rubio, who, I can't stand.   So I am sitting here waiting for a sign from God? to make up my mind.   There may be several of us out here in the sticks that feel the same way.

    "Let them eat cake" M.A.

    by stiffneck on Sun Oct 24, 2010 at 04:53:34 AM PDT

    •  I Am Sad To Say That I Voted For Crist (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      doc2, tle, SJerseyIndy, Mr SeeMore, allenjo

      I feel like a traitor, but I really, really can't stand Rubio.  I waited until the last minute to make up my mind.  I wanted to vote for Meek, I really did.  I can't tell how others should vote.  The decision is about what is important to each individual.  I chose what was in my interest only.

      •  So putting Rubio in is in your interest? (4+ / 0-)

        Dem votes for Crist are votes for Rubio. So much of the Lunatic party is enthralled with Rubio that Lunatic-lite Crist can't pull enough of those votes to help him, he has to fe a large plurality of Dem votes to win.

        •  The best thing that happened (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          allenjo

          for Rubio was Christ going independent.   A split vote between Meek and Christ is going to bring him in as the winner.  It's complicated because I want to vote the straight party line but I don't want Rubio in. Florida is bad enough as it is without that asshole.

          "Let them eat cake" M.A.

          by stiffneck on Sun Oct 24, 2010 at 05:30:34 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Rubio will be ONE VOTE as a Freshman (0+ / 0-)

            Senator. He will have no senority. Why do people keep saying they just can't tolerate Rubio? I know he is crazy but just exactly what can he do as a Freshman Senator?

            Now if Rubio was going to be your Governor I could see the negative impact that he would have on your state but right now you have a Senator who votes in lockstep with the Republican Party. If Rubio was to win (god-forbid) how does he become worse than Lemeiux (sp)????

            Maybe I'm missing something here.

            "No one can go back and start a new beginning, but anyone can start today and make a new ending." Maria Robinson

            by skindig55 on Sun Oct 24, 2010 at 06:04:02 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  We know from 2000 and 2004... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      rainmanjr

      as in the words of many Democrats... that you don't vote for who you like best or who best represents you, you vote for the only viable option to keep out the guy you don't want.

      Assuming you don't want Rubio, that answer is Crist.

      (note: this intellectual consistency only applies if you're not a blue-bleeding partisan)

      More and Better Democrats

      by SJerseyIndy on Sun Oct 24, 2010 at 05:52:13 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  If Dems had these uncertainties in 2008 (0+ / 0-)

      Obama would not be president now. The Clintons used  this same strategy of whisper attacks about how he was unelectable and should get out of the race. Crist is doing that with Kendrick Meek. How soon we forget.

      Thankfully, the majority of voters looked past scare tactics and voted their heart. If Democrats and like-minded people vote for the candidate who best matches their beliefs, Kendrick Meek is out next senator from Florida. He has my vote, and I believe he will win.

  •  The Democratic numbers (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Byblis

    are not comparable because this race isn't comparable. The decision of who to vote for is easier for a Republican than for a Democrat.

  •  Another reason, is that there are less early (0+ / 0-)

    voting locations than there were in 2008.

    Conservatives are not necessarily stupid, but most stupid people are conservatives. John Stuart Mill

    by Micheline on Sun Oct 24, 2010 at 05:47:52 AM PDT

    •  That seems to me to possibly address... (0+ / 0-)

      any discrepancy in overall voting totals.

      But it in no way addresses the reality of Republicans upping their percentages even in the face of it.

      Both parties would be facing the fewer location issue.

      But that somehow hasn't seemed to stop Republicans from making gains as compared to prior elections.

      More and Better Democrats

      by SJerseyIndy on Sun Oct 24, 2010 at 05:57:18 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Also (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      rainmanjr

      Sunday early voting has been eliminated.

      A fool will lose tomorrow reaching back for yesterday.

      by kansasr on Sun Oct 24, 2010 at 06:14:41 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  This year there are 262 early voting locations (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      rainmanjr, Dichro Gal, allenjo

      In 2008 there were 284.

      The big losers were:
      -6 Duval and Broward
      -3 Palm Beach and Charlotte
      -2 Sarasota and Okaloosa
      -1 Baker, Brevard, Flagler, Gilchrist, Lee, Leon, Monroe, Union and Volusia

      The only counties that added locations:
      +2 Jackson, St Lucie
      +1 Bay, Escambia, Hillsborough, Osceola and Polk

      A fool will lose tomorrow reaching back for yesterday.

      by kansasr on Sun Oct 24, 2010 at 06:36:05 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I gave you a T & R for number crunching... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    rainmanjr

    and portraying a reality that encourages others to GOTV now and on election day.

    Unfortunately, it will likely not get as many recs as a two-line diary that says "Dem early voting totals up!" and fills others with happy happy joy joy thoughts.

    More and Better Democrats

    by SJerseyIndy on Sun Oct 24, 2010 at 05:54:49 AM PDT

  •  As a FL resident: My reason for not voting YET. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    rainmanjr, Dichro Gal, allenjo

    In a nutshell: http://www.dailykos.com/...

    Anecdotally, I can confirm that many Dems are really caught between a rock and a hard place in the Senatorial race. They support Meek personally but feel compelled to vote in a way that makes it the more likely that Rubio will NOT win. With Meek more than 20-points behind Rubio, Crist seems the better hold-your-nose alternative right now. We will vote but are holding out for something/anything that would give us a reason to vote for Meek.

    "We will extend a hand if you are willing to unclench your fist" --- President Barack Obama, 1-20-2009.

    by tier1express on Sun Oct 24, 2010 at 06:49:11 AM PDT

  •  not great news, but... (0+ / 0-)

    ...it seems perfectly logical to me  that more Republicans voters, who happen to also be older, are choosing to vote at their convenience rather than risk having to stand it line on election day.
    Might that be one of the reasons...that the demographgics in Florida this year just make more sense that Republicans might be getting out more of the vote earlier this year?

  •  Tell Floridians that the repubs want... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    buckinfuzzard

    to do away with Social security and Medicare.  That ought to drive them to the polls in droves.

    Teabaggers = Koch's Suckers

    by Armadillious on Sun Oct 24, 2010 at 07:34:31 AM PDT

    •  Old people don't understand that. (0+ / 0-)

      They are stuck in the "Dem's want to kill grandma" meme.  Brain shrinking has destroyed their ability to see beyond the garbage to their own interests.  This is especially true in Fl, which is conservative to begin with, so I'd call it a loss.

      opposition's plans for this country ought to give the public the same kind of adrenaline that a rough shoulder gives an all-night driver. - Chimpy (Kossack)

      by rainmanjr on Sun Oct 24, 2010 at 09:41:09 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Democrats are waiting to see if either (0+ / 0-)

    Meek or Crist will drop out.  We have to get them to ALL vote for Meek instead of Crist and get Alex into that Governor's seat

    "Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity." --M. L. King "You can't fix stupid" --Ron White

    by zenbassoon on Sun Oct 24, 2010 at 08:10:53 AM PDT

  •  The Senate seat is lost... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    rainmanjr, Dichro Gal

    There really is only one reason for Dems to get excited on a statewide vote and that is the governor's race. Scott is by far worse than Rubio for Florida. Sink may not be much of a liberal, but she is certainly better than the criminal.

    Whatever anyone thinks Rubio WILL win the senate seat. You can vote now or wait. It doesn't matter at this point. Crist and Meek are cancelling each other out and Rubio is making out like a bandit. All we can hope for now is that Rubio will only be a one term senator. But, that means the party has to field a real Dem to compete in 6 years. Hopfully that happens.

    This country will not be a permanently good place for any of us to live in unless we make it a reasonably good place for all of us to live in-T. Roosevelt

    by DoctorRobert on Sun Oct 24, 2010 at 08:55:15 AM PDT

  •  Miami Herald endorsed Rubio (0+ / 0-)

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