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Summary:
 OH has 18 representatives: 10 D, 8 R
 OK has  5 representatives:  1 D, 4 R
 OR has  5 representatives:  4 D, 1 R
Possibly vulnerable:
 OH-01 (D)
 OH-02 (R)
 OH-06 (D)
 OH-12 (R)
 OH-13 (D)
 OH-15 (D)
 OH-16 (D)
 OH-18 (D)
 OR-04 (D)
 OR-05 (D)

Sources:
House vote in 2008 from Wikipedia
VoteView (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)
Race Tracker
Obama vote by CD from Swing State (other stuff there too).
and my previous diaries.
FEC
and Steve Singiser's diaries here on daily Kos (which I checked for about a month).

District: OH-01
Location Southwestern OH, bordering IN and KY, including Cincinnati map
Cook PVI D + 1
Representative Steve Dreihaus (D)
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 51-49 over Steve Chabot
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 55-44
Bush margin 2004 51-50
Current opponents Steven Chabot
Demographics   27th fewest Latinos (1.1%)
Assessment Dreihaus ousted Chabot, the incumbent; now, there's  a rematch.  Chabot has about $300K, Dreihaus about $200K
SSP rating: Lean R
My rating: Lean R

District: OH-02
Location  Central part of southern OH, bordering KY  map
Cook PVI R + 13
Representative Jean Schmidt (R)
VoteView 374.5
First elected 2005
2008 margin 45-37 over Vic Wulsin.  Remainder to David Krikorian, an independent.
2006 margin 50-49
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 40-59
Bush margin 2004 64-36
Current opponents Surya Yalamanchili
Demographics  22nd fewest Latinos (1.0%)
Assessment Schmidt is truly odious, although it is still a Republican stronghold.  
SSP rating: Safe for Republicans.  Schmidt has $240K COH, but a lot of debt; Yalamanchili has about $100K

District: OH-03
Location Southwestern OH, including Dayton  map
Cook PVI R + 5
Representative Mike Turner (R)
VoteView 278
First elected 2002
2008 margin 64-36 over Jane Mitikides
2006 margin 59-41
2004 margin 62-38
Obama margin 47-51
Bush margin 2004 46-55
Current opponents Joe Roberts
Demographics 26th fewest Latinos (1.1%)
Assessment Safe for Republicans. Turner has about $200K COH, Roberts has little

District: OH-04
Location Slightly north and west of central OH map
Cook PVI R + 15
Representative Jim Jordan (R)
VoteView 426
First elected 2006
2008 margin 65-35 over Mike Carroll
2006 margin 60-40
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 38-60
Bush margin 2004 34-65
Current opponents Doug Litt and a Libertarian
Demographics 33rd fewest Latinos (1.2%)
Assessment Safe for Republicans.  Jordan has about $800K COH, Litt has little.

District: OH-05
Location Northwestern OH, bordering MI and IN  map
Cook PVI R + 9
Representative Bob Latta (R)
VoteView 345
First elected 2007
2008 margin 64-36 over George Mays
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 45-53
Bush margin 2004 61-39
Current opponents Caleb Finkenbeiner
Demographics 41st most rural (51.1%), 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%)  
Assessment Safe for Republicans.  Latta has about $250K COH, no info on Finkenheimer.

District: OH-06
Location Southeastern OH, a long narrow strip along the whole of the border with WV map
Cook PVI R + 2
Representative Charlie Wilson (D)
VoteView 205.5
First elected 2006
2008 margin 62-33 over Richard Stobbs
2006 margin 62-38
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 48-50
Bush margin 2004 51-49
Current opponents Bill Johnson
Demographics 47th most rural (50.0%),  62nd poorest (median income = $33K), 11th most White (95.2%), 11th fewest Latinos (0.8%)
Assessment Although this is a swing district in POTUS, Wilson looks pretty good.  Wilson has about $400K COH, but also $200K in debt, Johnson has about $150K COH.  A recent Republican poll has it tied at 40.
SSP rating: Lean D
My rating: Likely D

District: OH-07
Location Just south of central OH map
Cook PVI R + 7
Representative Steve Austria (R)
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 58-42 over Sharen Neuhardt
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 45-54
Bush margin 2004 57-43
Current opponents Bill Conner
Demographics 26th fewest Latinos (1.1%)
Assessment Safe for Republicans.  Austria has about $270K COH, Conner has little.

District: OH-08
Location Central part of western OH, bordering IN map
Cook PVI R + 14
Representative John Boehner (R)
VoteView 407.5
First elected 1990
2008 margin 68-32 over Nicholas von Stein
2006 margin 64-36
2004 margin 69-31
Obama margin 38-60
Bush margin 2004 64-35
Current opponents Justin Cossoule
Demographics 73rd most Whites (91.8%), 42nd fewest Latinos (1.3%)
Assessment Pretty safe for Republicans, although Boehner has his problems.  Boehner has almost $1 million COH, Coussoule about $100K.  A Democratic poll had the rather odd result of Boehner up 31-19.

District: OH-09
Location Northern OH, bordering Lake Erie, including Toledo map
Cook PVI D + 10
Representative Marcy Kaptur (D)
VoteView 72
First elected 1982
2008 margin 74-26 over Bradley Leavitt
2006 margin 74-26
2004 margin 68-32
Obama margin 62-36
Bush margin 2004 42-55
Current opponents Rich Iott
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe. Kaptur has $830 K COH, Iott about $200K, but a ton of debt to himself.  Maybe he keeps an IOU in his Nazi uniform?

District: OH-10
Location Northern OH, bordering Lake Erie, including part of Cleveland map
Cook PVI D + 8
Representative Dennis Kucinich (D)
VoteView 2
First elected 1996
2008 margin 57-39 over Jim Trakas
2006 margin 66-34
2004 margin 60-34
Obama margin 59-39
Bush margin 2004 41-58
Current opponents Peter Corrigan
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe.  Kucinich has about $120K COH, Corrigan has little.

District: OH-11
Location Cleveland and eastern suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 32
Representative Marcia Fudge (D)
VoteView NA
First elected  2008
2008 margin 85-15 over Tom Pekarik
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 85-14
Bush margin 2004 18-81
Current opponents None
Demographics 52nd lowest income (median = $32K), 63rd fewest Whites (38.8%), 18th most Blacks (55.5%)
Assessment No opponent

District: OH-12
Location Central OH, including part of Columbus map
Cook PVI D + 1
Representative Pat Tiberi (R)
VoteView 316
First elected 2000
2008 margin 55-42 over David Robinson
2006 margin 57-43
2004 margin 62-38
Obama margin 53-46
Bush margin 2004 51-49
Current opponents Paula Brooks
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment From the Cook PVI numbers, it should be a bit vulnerable.  Tibieri has $1 million COH, Brooks an impressive $400K
SSP rating: Likely R
My rating: Likely R

District: OH-13
Location Northern OH, including Akron map
Cook PVI D + 5
Representative Betty Sutton (D)
VoteView 98.5
First elected 2006
2008 margin 65-35 over David Potter
2006 margin 61-39
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 57-42
Bush margin 2004 44-56
Current opponents Tom Ganley
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment  A little vulnerable.  Sutton has about $300K COH, Ganley is self-financed in the millions, and has $250K COH. Still, this is a very Democratic district
SSP rating: Lean D
My rating: Likely D

District: OH-14
Location Northeastern corner of OH, bordering PA and Lake Erie map
Cook PVI R + 3
Representative Steven LaTourette (R)
VoteView 264
First elected 1994
2008 margin 58-39 over Bill O'Neill
2006 margin 58-39
2004 margin 63-37
Obama margin 49-49
Bush margin 2004 53-44
Current opponents Bill O'Neill
Demographics 30th fewest in poverty (5.7%), 30th most Whites (93.8%), 42nd fewest Latinos (1.3%)
Assessment Safe for Republicans.  LaTourrette has $290K COH, O'Neill has little.

District: OH-15
Location Central OH, including Columbus map
Cook PVI D + 1
Representative Mary Jo Kilroy (D)
VoteView NA
First elected  2008
2008 margin 311 votes out of 260,000 over Steve Stivers
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 54-45
Bush margin 2004 50-50
Current opponents Steve Stivers
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Vulnerable.  Killroy has about $200 KCOH, Stivers almost $1 million.  A recent Republican poll has Stivers up, 51-39; a slightly older poll had him ahead 47-38
SSP rating: Lean R
My rating: Lean R

District: OH-16
Location North and east of central OH map
Cook PVI R + 4
Representative John Boccieri (D)
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 54-46 over Kirk Schuring
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 48-50
Bush margin 2004 54-46
Current opponents Jim Renacci
Demographics 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%)
Assessment A freshman in a Republican district has to be considered vulnerable.  Boccieri has just over $500K COH, Renacci has about $100K, but substantial debt.  A poll had Renacci ahead 42-39
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating: Tossup

District: OH-17
Location  Northeastern OH, bordering PA, including Youngstown map
Cook PVI D + 12
Representative Tim Ryan (D)
VoteView 109
First elected 2002
2008 margin 78-22 over Duane Grassell
2006 margin 80-20
2004 margin 77-23
Obama margin 62-36
Bush margin 2004 63-37
Current opponents Jim Graham
Demographics 67th fewest Latinos (1.6%)
Assessment Safe.  Ryan has about $200K COH, Graham has little

District: OH-18
Location South and east of central OH map
Cook PVI R + 7
Representative Zack Space (D)
VoteView 217
First elected 2006
2008 margin 60-40 over Fred Dailey
2006 margin 62-38
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 45-52
Bush margin 2004 57-41
Current opponents Bob Gibbs
Demographics 24th most rural (56.7%), 7th most White (95.9%), tied for least Latinos (0.6%)
Assessment Space fits the district.  Space has $650 K COH, Gibbs about $80K
SSP rating: Lean D
My rating: Likely D

District: OK-01
Location  Shaped like a key standing on end, centered on Tulsa in northeast OK, a tiny bit of border with KS map
Cook PVI R + 16
Representative John Sullivan (R)
VoteView 401
First elected 2002
2008 margin 66-34 over Georgianna Oliver
2006 margin 64-31
2004 margin 60-38
Obama margin 34-66
Bush margin 2004 35-65
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment No opponent

District: OK-02
Location Eastern OK, bordering MO and AR map
Cook PVI R + 14
Representative Dan Boren (D)
VoteView 225
First elected 2004
2008 margin 70-30 over Raymond Wickson
2006 margin 73-27
2004 margin 66-34
Obama margin 34-66
Bush margin 2004 41-59
Current opponents Charles Thompson
Demographics 9th most rural (64.4%), 12th lowest income (median = $28K), 11th most nonWhite, nonBlack, NonLatino (mostly 16.8% American Indian)
Assessment Boren isn't exactly a progressive (UNDERSTATEMENT) but he did 36 points better than Obama.  He seems safe.
Boren has $1.1 million COH, Thompson has little.

District: OK-03
Location The panhandle of OK, and east to Oklahoma City suburbs, borders TX, NM, CO, and KS map
Cook PVI R + 24
Representative Frank Lucas (R)
VoteView 315
First elected 1994
2008 margin 70-24 over Frankie Robbins
2006 margin 67-33
2004 margin 82-18 (vs. minor party)
Obama margin 27-73
Bush margin 2004 72-28
Current opponents Frankie Robbins
Demographics 54th most rural (49.3%), 53rd lowest income (median = $32K)
Assessment Safe for Republicans. Lucas has $215 K COH, Robbins has little.  

District: OK-04
Location Southwestern OK, bordering TX, including suburbs of Oklahoma City map
Cook PVI R + 18
Representative Tom Cole (R)
VoteView 330
First elected 2002
2008 margin 66-29 over Blake Cummings
2006 margin 65-35
2004 margin 78-22 (against minor party)
Obama margin 34-66
Bush margin 2004 59-41
Current opponents No Democrats
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment No opponent

District: OK-05
Location Oklahoma City and some points southeast of there map
Cook PVI R + 13
Representative Mary Fallin (R) Retiring to run for Governor
VoteView NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 41-59
Bush margin 2004 64-36
Current opponents Jim Lankford (R), Billy Coyle (D)
Demographics 78th lowest income (median = $34K)
Assessment Safe for Republicans. Lankford has about $140K COH, Coyle about $50K

District: OR-01
Location  Northwestern OR, bordering WA and the Pacific, including parts of Portland and its suburbs  map
Cook PVI D + 8
Representative David Wu (D)
VoteView 132.5
First elected 1998
2008 margin 73% against several minor party candidates
2006 margin 63-34
2004 margin 58-38
Obama margin 61-36
Bush margin 2004 44-55
Current opponents Rob Corneilles
Demographics  36th fewest Blacks (1.1%)
Assessment Safe. Wu has $270K COH, Corneilles has $180K, but this is a very Democratic district.  A recent poll has Wu up 51-42
SSP rating: Likely D
My rating: Safe

District: OR-02
Location The eastern 2/3rds of OR, bordering WA, ID, NV, and CA  map
Cook PVI R + 10
Representative Greg Walden (R)
VoteView 280
First elected 1998
2008 margin 70-26 over Noah Lemas
2006 margin 67-30
2004 margin 72-26
Obama margin 43-54
Bush margin 2004 61-38
Current opponents Joyce Segers
Demographics 15th most veterans (17.3%), 6th fewest Blacks (0.4%)
Assessment Safe for Republicans.  Walden has $700 K COH, Segers has little.

District: OR-03
Location Northern OR, bordering WA, includes Portland and suburbs, and Mt Hood.  map
Cook PVI D + 19
Representative Earl Blumenauer (D)
VoteView 54
First elected 1996
2008 margin 75-25 over Delia Lopez
2006 margin 73-23
2004 margin 71-24
Obama margin 71-26
Bush margin 2004 33-67
Current opponents Delia Lopez
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe.  Blumenauer has $500K COH, Lopez less than $100K, and that's self-financed.

District: OR-04
Location Southwestern OR, bordering CA and the Pacific, including Eugene  map
Cook PVI D + 2
Representative Peter DeFazio (D)
VoteView 142
First elected 1986
2008 margin 83% against several minor party candidates
2006 margin 62-38
2004 margin 61-38
Obama margin 54-43
Bush margin 2004 49-49
Current opponents Art Robinson
Demographics   11th fewest Blacks (0.5%), 24th most veterans (16.9%)
Assessment DeFazio has $600K COH, Robinson about $100K. A Democratic poll has DeFazio up 53-39.
SSP rating: Likely D
My rating: Safe

District: OR-05
Location  A T-shaped district in northwestern OR.  map
Cook PVI D + 1
Representative Kurt Schrader (D)
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 55-38 over Mike Erickson
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 54-43
Bush margin 2004 50-49
Current opponents Scott Bruun
Demographics 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%)
Assessment Winning by 17 in your first race looks good; probably safe. Schrader has $120 K COH, Bruun about $200K.  A recent poll has Bruun ahead 51-41, but 2 Republican polls had him up 44-42 and 44-40
SSP rating Lean D
My rating: Tossup

Originally posted to plf515 on Mon Oct 25, 2010 at 02:55 AM PDT.

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