No, this is not just another GOTV diary.
Well, actually it is. But not about what we've been talking about, the U.S. House of Representatives, the U.S. Senate, and (to a much lesser extent) governorships.
Nor is this about what will happen to health reform, financial reform, and the prospects for any further stimulus (dim as that prospect appears to me thus far), although these issues will be affected.
This is about the long-range future, and Karl Rove's cited "permanent Republican majority." Read on.
This year there are 46 state legislatures that will be up for elections. Democrats control 61 of the 99 chambers.
Also, there will be 26 Secretaries of State up for election.
And there are 37 Governorshipsup for election -- 17 for re-election (9 Democrats, 8 Republican) and 20 open seats (10 each formerly held by either party).
The significance of these can be summed up in one word: Census.
Republicans and Democrats hoping to pick up seats in congress through redistricting, are pouring money and political muscle into statehouse races in about 16 states.
State legislatures will next year redraw congressional districts based on the 2010 census.
-- Wall Street Journal, October 12, 2010
2010, in case you really haven't been paying attention, was a census year. As noted in the WSJ piece, what this means for 2011 is legislative fights over redistricting (or, to be a tad more cynical about the whole thing, gerrymandering rights). These will redraw the political map according to the population for the districts in the U.S. House of Representatives and the districts for representatives for the state legislatures. Both of these are crucial for the future of progressive change, whether you believe it can be achieved through the Democratic Party or not.
Cutting out a wealthy suburb or looping in an ethnic neighborhood can turn a district from Republican to Democratic, or vice-versa.
-- WSJ, 10/12/10
Gotta love how the Journal cites the Republican corporate fear first. Let's rewrite that to lead with the "vice-versa" scenario they seem loathe to bring up:
Cutting out working-class and poor neighborhoods or slicing up an ethnic neighborhood can turn a district from Democratic to Republican, or vice-versa.
By reconfiguring the districts, Republicans could ensure a long-term consolidation of any gains this year, and ensure they can build on those gains for 2012. This is only if they can gain control of the process in the state legislatures and governorships. Remember the 2003 Texas redistricting debacle? That attempt to freeze out Democratic representation should not be forgot this year. We need to have as many Democrats in the state legislatures and governorships as we can get to, at the very least, keep these kind of political games at bay.
Why? Simple. Despite what we all wish would be the opposite, national politicians advance through the ranks with the aid of state and local party machinery. That means either actually getting elected, or being an asset in getting that party's candidates elected and in fundraising (although those are very nearly the same thing nowadays, unfortunately). Think how much an obstacle Republicans can throw in front of any Democrat's electoral chances by configuring districts so that they contain fairly solid Republican voting populations and dilute whatever voting strength Democrats may have. The effect would be a much easier road to the control of the U.S. Congress and Presidency by the Republicans for some time to come as Democrats would be forced to expend a great deal of time and effort just to hang on to what they've got rather than be able to expand to other voters. We need to have Democrats either in control of or in possession of enough of a share of the power at the state level to affect the redistricting process. We cannot afford to cede total control of politics to the current configuration of the GOP.
Secretaries of State are equally important. I don't think I need to link to anything discussing Katherine Harris in Florida or Ken Blackwell in Ohio (although I've added links for both, and the full cv of Blackwell's stint as SoS is truly eye-opening). We should also remember the SoS of various states attempts to hang bogus voter fraud charges on ACORN. Suppression of the vote and outright theft of elections is something in which Republicans seem more than willing to engage these days, including onerous voter ID laws, pushed by SoS's.. It's become a common tactic, and ties in with the redistricting: The current crop of Republicans simply believe they are entitled to run the country -- or should I make that "rule the country"?
So, if you have the time, in addition to working to ensure the national electoral prospects for Democrats are a bit rosier than pollsters and pundits want us to believe, take the time to learn about downticket races. Find out what state legislative district you vote in. Is the Democratic party spending heavily to get or keep it Democratic? How tight a race is it? Is it in danger of going Republican? Could it go Democratic, if it's currently in Republican hands?
If it's safe for the Democratic candidate and seems that GOTV efforts are well in hand (but do try to help out anyway), see if there's a district where GOTV efforts can make a difference, where your volunteer time and energies can be made most useful. Remember to familiarize yourself with your state issues and the stand the local Democrat is making on them (even if they make you want to gag) so you can sell the candidate when doing a phone bank, leafletting, or canvassing.
Also contribute $$ in these remaining days (again, if you can) to help out the local candidates' campaigns to do the job that desperately needs doing.
And if you have neither the time nor money to contribute, for heaven's sake at least don't forget to vote!!!!
And if you're already doing any or all these things, good on you, and please share your story with us. And let's hope we're rewarded come November 2.
Republican policies and politics -- nationally and locally -- promise a long dark night for this country. Let's work to keep the lights on, now.