Chris Bowers is doing a great job tracking Senate races to help us target contributions,
but I miss the excellent spreadsheets he did for House races in previous cycles.
This is an effort to help fill the gap.
Below the fold is a table with 18 House races deserving late contributions IMO.
My criteria include: strong progressives, with high ADA ratings for 2009
(plus three challengers for open seats held by progressive Dems),
running races identified as competitive by Pollster and/or 538,
mostly in states with close Senate races,
so contributions will do double work by boosting Dem turnout.
House Races 2010 Oct 26
District | Candidate | ADA | Mrg | Win% | Pollster | 538 | Inc | Sen Race | Notes |
AZ 07 | Grijalva | 100 | | | | Toss | D | McCain | Prog leader O2B |
CA 11 | McNerney | 100 | R+4 | 75% | Lean R | Toss | D | Boxer | Strong envir |
CO 07 | Perlmutter | 95 | R+1 | 55% | Toss Up | Ln D | D | Bennet | |
FL 08 | Grayson | 100 | R+7 | 88% | Lean R | Ln R | D | Crist? | Strong prog O2B |
IL 17 | Hare | 90 | R+1 | 83% | Lean R | Toss | D | Giannoulias | |
KY 03 | Yarmuth | 100 | D+22 | 95% | Strong D | Ln D | D | Conway | Prob safe |
KY 06 | Chandler | 80 | D+6 | 80% | Lean D | Toss | D | Conway | |
MO 03 | Carnahan | 100 | D+11 | 88% | Lean D | | D | Carnahan | Rel of S cand |
NC 02 | Etheridge | 95 | Tie | 66% | Toss Up | Ln D | D | Marshall | S longshot |
NH 01 | Shea-Porter | 95 | R+9 | 90% | Lean R | Ln R | D | Hodes | S longshot |
NH 02 | Kuster | [95] | Tie | 58% | Toss Up | Toss | OD | Hodes | Hodes seat; O2B |
NY 19 | Hall | 100 | Tie | 53% | Toss Up | Toss | D | 2 Safe Ds | Top race in NYS |
OH 15 | Kilroy | 100 | R+9 | 89% | Lean R | Ln R | D | Fisher | Strong prog |
PA 07 | Lentz | [95] | R+4 | 83% | Lean R | Ln R | OD | Sestak | Sestak seat |
PA 08 | Murphy,P | 90 | R+2 | 57% | Toss Up | Toss | D | Sestak | |
WA 02 | Larsen | 100 | D+3 | 76% | Lean D | Ln D | D | Murray | |
WIS 7 | Lassa | [95] | R+7 | 85% | Lean R | Toss | OD | Feingold | Obey's seat |
WIS 8 | Kagen | 95 | R+7 | 84% | Lean R | Ln R | D | Feingold | |
TARGETING CRITERIA:
Close House race,
high* ADA liberal quotient on House votes (2009 only, latest available)
running in states with competitive Senate race
and/or progressive leader.
ADA ratings based on 20 votes in 2009 http://www.adaction.org/...
*KY 06 Chandler's ADA is only 80%, but he could help Conway take down Paul,
while Yarmuth KY 03 with 95% ADA may not need the help.
[bracketed ADA ratings are for outgoing Dem incumbents from open seats]
All are current D seats; D: candidate is incumbent; OD: Open Dem seat;
O2B: Orange to Blue candidate.
Pollster data from http://www.huffingtonpost.com/... Oct 25 evening
"Mrg" is the margin between what I assume are polling averages in this race;
"Win %" I assume is Pollster's current estimate of odds favoring whoever is leading.
538 rating from http://elections.nytimes.com/... Oct 25 evening
NY has 2 Sen candidates, Schumer and Gillibrand, both safe
but I want to help John Hall, strong progressive in very close race.
Help getting table columns to line up is appreciated (h/t jgnyc),
but not as much as contributions on ActBlue.com