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Chris Bowers is doing a great job tracking Senate races to help us target contributions,
but I miss the excellent spreadsheets he did for House races in previous cycles.
This is an effort to help fill the gap.

Below the fold is a table with 18 House races deserving late contributions IMO.

My criteria include: strong progressives, with high ADA ratings for 2009
(plus three challengers for open seats held by progressive Dems),
running races identified as competitive by Pollster and/or 538,
mostly in states with close Senate races,
so contributions will do double work by boosting Dem turnout.

House Races 2010 Oct 26                

                               
District Candidate ADA Mrg Win% Pollster 538 Inc Sen Race Notes
AZ 07 Grijalva 100 Toss D McCain Prog leader O2B
CA 11 McNerney   100 R+4 75% Lean R Toss D Boxer Strong envir
CO 07 Perlmutter 95 R+1 55% Toss Up Ln D D Bennet
FL 08 Grayson 100 R+7 88% Lean R Ln R D Crist? Strong prog O2B
IL 17 Hare   90 R+1 83% Lean R Toss D Giannoulias
KY 03 Yarmuth   100 D+22 95% Strong D Ln D D Conway Prob safe
KY 06 Chandler 80 D+6 80% Lean D Toss D Conway
MO 03 Carnahan   100 D+11 88% Lean D D Carnahan Rel of S cand
NC 02 Etheridge   95 Tie 66% Toss Up Ln D D Marshall S longshot
NH 01 Shea-Porter   95 R+9 90% Lean R Ln R D Hodes S longshot
NH 02 Kuster [95] Tie 58% Toss Up Toss OD Hodes Hodes seat; O2B
NY 19 Hall   100 Tie 53% Toss Up Toss D 2 Safe Ds Top race in NYS
OH 15 Kilroy 100 R+9 89% Lean R Ln R D Fisher Strong prog
PA 07 Lentz   [95] R+4 83% Lean R Ln R OD Sestak Sestak seat
PA 08 Murphy,P   90 R+2 57% Toss Up Toss D Sestak
WA 02 Larsen   100 D+3 76% Lean D Ln D D Murray
WIS 7 Lassa [95] R+7 85% Lean R Toss OD Feingold Obey's seat
WIS 8 Kagen   95 R+7 84% Lean R Ln R D Feingold

TARGETING CRITERIA:
Close House race,
high* ADA liberal quotient on House votes (2009 only, latest available)
running in states with competitive Senate race
and/or progressive leader.

ADA ratings based on 20 votes in 2009  http://www.adaction.org/...
*KY 06 Chandler's ADA is only 80%, but he could help Conway take down Paul,
while Yarmuth KY 03 with 95% ADA may not need the help.
[bracketed ADA ratings are for outgoing Dem incumbents from open seats]

All are current D seats; D: candidate is incumbent; OD: Open Dem seat;
O2B: Orange to Blue candidate.
Pollster data from  http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...   Oct 25 evening
"Mrg" is the margin between what I assume are polling averages in this race;
"Win %" I assume is Pollster's current estimate of odds favoring whoever is leading.

538 rating from http://elections.nytimes.com/... Oct 25 evening  
NY has 2 Sen candidates, Schumer and Gillibrand, both safe
but I want to help John Hall, strong progressive in very close race.

Help getting table columns to line up is appreciated (h/t jgnyc),
but not as much as contributions on ActBlue.com  

Originally posted to Albanius on Tue Oct 26, 2010 at 09:20 AM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (5+ / 0-)

    There's no such thing as a free market!

    by Albanius on Tue Oct 26, 2010 at 09:20:42 AM PDT

  •  lining up table example (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Albanius

    Good work. I'm cashed out but I already donated to Hall and, depending on ... , might go back on ACT BLUE tomorrow. On the "lining up" thing: put it in a table?

    NY 19 Hall 46.0 46.4 Tie 53% Toss Up Toss 100 D 2 Safe Ds Top NYS race
    OH 15 Kilroy 40.4 49.4 R+9 89% Lean R Ln R 100 D R favored Strong prog

    Apologies in advance if this is too simple.
    Here's the code example:

    [table border=2]
    [tr][td width = 20]NY 19[/td][td width = 20] Hall[/td][td width = 20] 46.0 [/td][td width = 20]46.4 [/td][td width = 20] Tie[/td][td width = 20] 53% [/td][td width = 20] Toss Up[/td][td width = 20] Toss[/td][td width = 20] 100 D[/td][td width = 20] 2 Safe Ds[/td][td width = 20] Top NYS race[/td][/tr]
    [tr][td width = 20]OH 15[/td][td width = 20] Kilroy [/td][td width = 20] 40.4 [/td][td width = 20] 49.4 [/td][td width = 20] R+9[/td][td width = 20] 89%[/td][td width = 20] Lean R [/td][td width = 20]Ln R [/td][td width = 20]100 D[/td][td width = 20] R favored[/td][td width = 20] Strong prog[/td][/tr]
    [/table]

    If you didn't like the news today, go out and make some of your own.

    by jgnyc on Tue Oct 26, 2010 at 10:13:25 AM PDT

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