Congressman Scott Murphy in NY 20 is now trailing GOP challenger Chris Gibson according to a recent Siena Poll reported in the Albany Times Union. The gap puts Gibson up by 9, with independents moving in his direction and Republicans solidifying around him.
BUT..... Siena is not the only poll out; The Murphy campaign says an internal poll of their own put them ahead by three several days ago. Murphy's district is a conservative one - and Kirsten Gillibrand's win over John Sweeney way back when was considered a real anomaly at the time. Murphy had a battle to take and hold it after Gillibrand got appointed to the Senate. If it swings back to the dark side, it won't be entirely a surprise.
IF...
(more over the jump)
Polls always have a margin of error, and the real results won't be known till election day. Murphy's last go-round went into overtime when opponent Jim Tedisco challenged a number of ballots before conceding.
What is certain is that a blizzard of really vicious attack ads on TV have been targeting Murphy relentlessly, and the pace is picking up as election day nears. They keep repeating the same big lies and fear stories: massive tax hikes are coming, Murphy shipped jobs overseas, Murphy switched his vote on that horrible health care leading to billions cut from Medicare, NANCY PELOSI! and so on.
Gibson endorses all this, of course. He'll be a reliable tool for the GOP corporate ownership if elected, and another GOP obstructionist.
The GOP wants this seat back BAD - that's why they're throwing millions at it. Show Murphy some love here if you feel so inclined. Bill Clinton is coming to town to campaign for Murphy, but the race is close.
It Ain't Over Till It's Over. In fact - it's never over.