Skip to main content

Throughout the campaign season, we've been talking about two important concepts in identifying voters and reading tea leaves: the likely voter, and the early voter (also here.)

Two very good pollster posts, one by Mark Blumenthal (pollster.com) on the likely voter and one by Frank Newport (Gallup) on the early voter, help bring some needed clarity  but don't answer all questions.

By now, most of you are used to seeing the (RV) registered voter designation, a smaller universe than "all adults". "All adults" is useful for looking at policy questions, but if you are not registered, you can't vote, and if you can't vote, you are not relevant for election questions.

Of course, just because you can vote doesn't mean you will vote (we don't all live in Minnesota.) So an even smaller number is the (LV) or likely voter. These are people who are likely to show up at the polls, early or late... but if they have already voted, they aren't just a "likely" voter, they're an "early voter".  And early voters tend to skew older and retired, and tend to exist more in the west than the east.

Early voters are partisans, and do not vote the same as the general population. How do they vote? Usually we know their party affiliation, but not who they voted for. That's important in NV and AK, where voters dislike candidates, and may not vote their parties.

Throughout the campaign season, then, you'll see (RV) or (LV), sometimes without explanation, next to poll posts.

Mark Blumenthal notes that the screening questions to identify LVs vary between pollsters, but one big discrepancy is the difference between a quesion about intent (smaller GOP advantage) and interest (larger GOP advantage). Using Pew, compare 2002, 2006 and 2010, with the blue line being "attentive":

corrected graph as per mark blumenthal

In all three elections, the "definitely vote" (green line) favored the GOP by 5 points as it does this year, but the "always vote" (red line) folks are more GOP this year. And the "paying attention" blue line is almost off the charts GOP this year.

Which is the "real indicator"? They all are, but the pollster that weight the blue data more heavily will look more GOP. Still, all the data suggest a GOP year in some proportion. Blumenthal:

We will know in a few days whether the narrowing that was evident in 2006 in the Gallup, Pew Research and other surveys repeats this year. It may not.  And again, even if it does, Democrats are in for a drubbing that is likely to equal or exceed their loses in 1994. But at some point, pollsters need to address why their results sometimes diverge widely a few weeks or months before the election, only to converge at the end.

Early voters

Gallup is starting to report their own data from surveys for actual voters and concludes:

Few Political Clues

While interested observers have been poring over reports of early voting in an attempt to get a handle on the direction of the election, Gallup's current data do not show much of a difference in early voting by party affiliation. Thirteen percent of self-identified Republican registered voters say they have already voted, compared with 9% of independents and Democrats. The percentages of those in each party group who say they will vote between now and Election Day are roughly equal.

However, without knowing how they vote, the data so far skews older.

The finding that older voters have a higher propensity to vote early is not a new one, but confirms that many senior citizens, like residents in the West, are by this point in the election cycle essentially "out of the game" as far as the campaigning is concerned. A disproportionately high number of younger registered voters volunteer that they will not end up voting this year, also confirming what is well-known in American politics -- that young voters are as a rule not highly involved in the election process.

Although that could change by election day, betting on the "unlikely voter" generally loses.

We did a media round-up of headlines on early voting yesterday, and the bottom line is still "we don't know". But Jon Ralston is the best tea leaf reader in NV; go here for the latest there (Republicans had a good day Monday.)

And remember that partisans tend to vote early, but independents tend to decide elections.

So, GOTV, and especially do so back east, where we sleep in on elections more often than not, and we vote late if we vote at all.

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 08:40 AM PDT.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

  •  As a Minnesotan, I am quite proud of our high (5+ / 0-)

    turnout rate. We take voting seriously up here. However, I expect some of these vote by mail states may overtake our turnouts soon.

    As for the GOP's good day yesterday and Monday in early voting, according atdnext (local Nevada expert), there is a rotating set of temporary voting sites. Monday and Tuesday they were in GOP-heavy areas, which is why there was a GOP spike. Today, it is mostly split between GOP and Dem areas. Thursday and Friday they are located in Dem-heavy areas.

    President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

    by askew on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 08:45:46 AM PDT

    •  Who the hell knows what an early voter, likely (4+ / 0-)

      Voter or motivated voter is anymore? This pollster seem to me to be all over the place. I've stop believing the bullshit that are tracking polls too.

      •  I am not too invested in the polls at this point. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        CocoaLove

        I am more interested in looking at early voting. It's looking good in IA, ok in NV, bad in IL and FL. We'll see how it goes the rest of the week.

        President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

        by askew on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 09:03:17 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I can't figure out Illinois, really weak Chgo (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Odysseus, askew, beltane

          numbers.  I am phonebanking my area northwest of the city, and the biggest roadblock is trying to convince people to vote early.  The majority say they want to vote on election day, period, just like they always have.  And many seem to be unaware that early voting even exists, don't know where they've been, but even when told, they resist.
           And it is not helpful that Chgo Democrats sent out some messed up absentee ballots which are not legal and doubt if they can get the revised back in time.  How does something like that even happen???

          •  The IL Democratic party seems completely (0+ / 0-)

            disorganized this cycle. I don't know if that is due to the Obama team taking too much of their top talent to DC with them or lack of a true GOP opponent in years. But, they seem clueless.

            My concern is that if they wait until election day the lines will be way, way too long and people will give up. The GOP is targeting Dem districts to do some voter intimidation and could do a lot of voter challenges that slow down the voting on election day.

            President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

            by askew on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 10:47:38 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  Besides (0+ / 0-)

        didn't all the exit polling have Gore winning in 2000?  

        When the power of love overcomes the love of power the world will know peace.

        by DrMomSquared on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 09:08:28 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Reid's lead in NV is very small, hard to believe (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew

      ......80% of success......is......just showing up

      by Churchill on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 08:50:01 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Gallup was called out for using a slanted (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Churchill, Matt Z, beltane, bluezen

      old model and counting on Dems not GOTV..Both skewed the results of their polls to the gop side.

      Read Blumenthals lengthy piece---he missed the model issue and hedged on the time of calls, cell phone issue, and zip code slant..

      Until they can get responders to answer the phone and tell the truth they would be better off at the coffee shop!

      •  I am not worrying about polls now. (0+ / 0-)

        Now that early voting has started, they really don't matter that much.

        President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

        by askew on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 09:05:42 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Rasmussen has been juicing the polls for months (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        askew, bear83

        and driving the RW narrative that the MSM has been faithfully repeating.

        Rasmussen has been polling heavily GOP demographics and passing the results off as being objective.  Nate Silver factors in all polls, including Rasmussen's.  That's why the data is flawed -- it's skewed towards GOP candidates.

        Of course, none of this matters to the MSM -- the more exciting they can make it, the more viewers they attract.  Forget the truth -- that's so old-fashioned.

      •  I never pick up the phone if I don't know who it (0+ / 0-)

        is on the caller-ID. I'm voting and it won't be for any republicans. FWIW.

        The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy;the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness

        by CTMET on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 02:34:58 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  This is very educational, Thank you. (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DemFromCT, Gator, wishingwell, Matt Z

    ......80% of success......is......just showing up

    by Churchill on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 08:48:58 AM PDT

  •  Carol Shea-Porter in NH, very good Rep, in tough (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    coffejoe

    race. They've already said it's a GOP very likely.  She did everything she could do.  When she was elected in 2006 the Dem Non-leadership didn't even know her name.  Because of the Dem non-Leadership she will lose.  Because the Dems compromised with the GOP and gave them what they wanted she will lose.  When she was elected the centrist Dems didn't help her one bit, but they did help get her defeated.

    Thank you very much Conserva-Dems for your non-Support.  And a special thanks goes to Lieberman.  He consistently undermined the Dems and helped this GOP tsunami, and now he will caucus with the GOP.  It'll be a 50-50 senate.

    ......80% of success......is......just showing up

    by Churchill on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 08:54:16 AM PDT

    •  I don't think that has a damn thing to do with (0+ / 0-)

      Shea-Porter's problems. Shea-Porter's district is not a liberal district, so failure to pass more liberal policies is not hurting her.

      She has been in tight races multiple times due to her poor fundraising and not great politicking skills. I am hoping she can win again, but I am not counting on it.

      President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

      by askew on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 09:08:24 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Also, what effect does a skew in the early voter (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pollwatcher, Churchill, coffejoe

    numbers in a race have upon the reliability of exit polling?  It seems that since EVs are not included in the exit polling sample, any skew would tend to make the exit polling as a predictor of the final result (always a problematic question) to be sktechy , at best.

    God is a concept by which we measure our pain -- John Lennon Oct. 9, 1940 - Dec. 8 1980

    by Its the Supreme Court Stupid on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 08:55:45 AM PDT

  •  In Australia you are required to vote (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Churchill, Dichro Gal

    it is actually mandated. Imagine that the Aussie's decided to make it a law you had to vote.

    I just can't imagine not voting. Even when I was young I voted.

    Still doesn't look good. I dread the news the day after the election.

    Vote 11.2.10 the penalty for refusing to participate in politics you end up being governed by your inferiors. Plato

    by coffejoe on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 08:55:53 AM PDT

  •  I just checked Ralston's latest update. (6+ / 0-)

    More Democratic votes cast than Republican so far in NV but Republicans are voting at a higher rate. So mixed success.

    I voted absentee today but I hope my fellow Millennials get out there and vote this time. The GOP wants to rob us of our future by cutting funding for education, infrastructure, and sustainable energy and hand the money over to people like the Koch brothers. For our own good, we have to get out there and show the politicians that the young will not be silent!

    •  Nevada (0+ / 0-)

      A columnist at National Review wrote a rosy picture of how Angle might well win, but ... with a caveat that she can't afford much "dropoff" - R's leaving the race blank, or None of the Above. Moreover, I seem to recall she has a pastor problem of her own, as he was caught Mormon-bashing, no?

  •  I Looked At The Early Voting In Clark County For (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wishingwell, Churchill

    26 October and it looked pretty good.  Am I missing something here??

    •  Reid could win, but it's too close to call (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wishingwell

      this is very hard to believe, a Senate Majority Leader thrown out of office.  I guess Tom Daschle was thrown out when he was Senate Majority Leader.

      ......80% of success......is......just showing up

      by Churchill on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 08:58:46 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  The enthusiasm gap is closing, but (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Dichro Gal, coffejoe

      I'm looking for a silver lining here but, if the Dems are less enthusiastic, and they most certainly are, we wouldn't expect them to vote early.  Someone who isn't enthusiastic simply isn't going to go out of their way to vote early.  We can only hope that those unenthusiastic Dems are becoming more engaged with each passing day, and on election day, their just enthusiastic enough to say, "Ok, I'll go vote".

      An unenthusiastic vote will count the same as a wild eyed, jumping up and down vote.

    •  The Dems margin has decreased on the 25th/26th (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      beltane

      due to some temporary voting stations in GOP heavy areas. Those voting stations are shifting to Dem heavy areas on Thursday and Friday so the Dem numbers should go up.

      President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

      by askew on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 09:10:25 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  polls R rt, esp.when they point same direction (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Zoltan, coffejoe

    it's going to be Speaker Boehner.  I said that when the Public Option was thrown out before the HCR began, and I was right; sadly.

    ......80% of success......is......just showing up

    by Churchill on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 08:57:03 AM PDT

  •  LV doesn't stand for Las Vegas? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wishingwell, Churchill

    I wondered why so many pollsters care about Las Vegas, doesn't seem like Las Vegas controls the country that much.

    "The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it." -- George Bernard Shaw

    by Inspector Javert on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 08:57:39 AM PDT

  •  The important thing is to hold onto the Senate (5+ / 0-)

    The House is likely a lost cause. And, even if it does go -- it's not the end of the world because the Dems can take it right back in 2012 when all of the crazy-wirghting motherfuckers have to defend their seats in a Presidential election year with Obama on the ballot and 2 years of being assholes fresh in the voters' minds.

    But, retaining control of the Senate is absolutely crucial to be able to at least give the Dems a fighting chance in 2012.

    •  60 Dem Sen favored GOP policies, why would they (0+ / 0-)

      change now?

      ......80% of success......is......just showing up

      by Churchill on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 09:00:44 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It's not so much about policy. (8+ / 0-)

        It's about the fact that Senate terms are 6 years long and only 1/3 is elected every two years.

        So, every single teabagging wacko who gets elected this year will be a pain in our asses for at least 6 years. You can go after the House ones in just two -- in a Presidential election year.

        The Next time the Senators elected this year will face the voters will not be until 2016.

        This is why it is crucial to hold onto the Senate and limit our losses there.

        And, frankly, I'm not that concerned about a bunch of Blue Dogs getting thrown out of office in the House. Fuck them. They are the reason (in large measure) why the Democrats are so screwed this year anyway.

  •  Hey Dem, a silver lining for Dems... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    coffejoe

    If Republicans really do win as big as the forecasters say, they're as likely to all "we have a mandate" dippy as the Democrats were in 2008.

    That's good news for 2012, when Democrats have a White House and 2 Senate seats to defend for every Republican.

    Voters don't really make big ideological swings.  Make our lives better or convince us that you are doing your best to make our lives better, and you can get our votes.  Betray us, or simply convince us that you don't care about our needs, and the other guy can get our votes.

    Of course, divided government makes the whole deal harder, and there is a serious risk that nobody will be able to reach 2012 without being forced to do something good for the country, but that's politics for you.

    LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

    by dinotrac on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 09:00:27 AM PDT

  •  GOTV calling for Patty Murray - My anecdote (6+ / 0-)

    Most calls where answering machines.  There were a couple negatives, but of the live contacts, the vast majority had already voted and voted for Senator Murray.

  •  The real question (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wishingwell

    that I can't seem to find an answer to, is what percentage of registered (RV) voters actually vote in mid-term elections.  I keep trying to find stats on this and can't seem to find anything but an overall breakdown of votes.

    It seems to me that a great majority of mid-term elections are determined by about 1/3 of the registered voters. But that's making my memory stretch way too far back in time.

    Then there are people like my wife and me who are registered Independents but live in a state where there is no polling because nobody really cares.  It's assumed that we will elect the Repukes, end of discussion.  It would be nice to live in a state where I thought my vote really mattered.  Maybe in a few years we'll jump the state line and cast our votes in Missouri.

    When the power of love overcomes the love of power the world will know peace.

    by DrMomSquared on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 09:05:52 AM PDT

  •  GOTV is key (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, princesspat

    since Democrats lead in registered voters. It's that simple.

    The only reason why I didn't vote early is that my polling place is practically around the corner from where I live. I'll vote before I go to work.

    I an adjunct professor at some local colleges. I gave my students the option of not coming in Tuesday night so they can vote. I reminded them there are crazies running who want to do away with the Dept. of Education and that that MIGHT affect their financial aid & student loans (didn't mention parties, though; just let them know what's at stake). Any student who wants to come can get face time with me regarding their research papers & grades.

    Again, if we GOTV, we win.

    A village can not reorganize village life to suit the village idiot.

    by METAL TREK on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 09:09:58 AM PDT

  •  not sure what this means (4+ / 0-)

    I only skimmed the diary. All I know is I will vote and vote a straight Democratic ticket. My non-existent trust in the GOP tightened even moreso with the antics of the tea party crowd.

  •  I have a theory (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew

    "pollsters need to address why their results sometimes diverge widely a few weeks or months before the election, only to converge at the end."

    Pollster accuracy is judged almost entirely by their last poll before the election.  The idea is they say polls are snapshots not predictions (this is silly we look at them to predict).

    LV filters will select different voters depending on the date.  Gallup is unusual as they explain their LV filter.  One question is something like "do you know the location of your polling place."  Clearly not knowing on Oct 30 is an important signal that one is not going to vote.  Not knowing in August pretty much just means the voter hasn't voted there before

    Another question is something like have you voted there before.  Both select against young people.  The two put people who have never voted before or who have moved since the last election on the edge of exclusion (3 strikes and you're out that is 3 non voter like answers imply that Gallup considers you not likely to vote).

    Gallup uses this filter, because just before the election it becomes a good filter.  Every 2 years there is a Gallup anomaly where the Gallup LV sample is more Republican than other LV polls (except maybe Rasmussen this year).  This is all very predictable and, unlike pollsters, I personally have addressed it repeatedly.

    •  Good points you make here RJ as I do wonder (0+ / 0-)

      if some of these polling questions have an effect on a new voter, a sporadic voter, or someone who is a registered Democrat but seldom voted before 2006 or 2008.  

      As we have a lot of new voters in our area as well as voters who will tell us they are registered but never really voted much until Bush was in office. They are Democrats who seldom voted but woke up after Bush took office and got involved.

      I wonder how the polls go for those folks? As we all encounter them when doing GOTV. They will say they were registered for years but never voted until 2008...or 2006. I called it the Bush Awakening Syndrome.  LOL...where the woke up after the invasion of Iraq  and started voting.

  •  Equal to 1994?! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wishingwell

    I'd gotten the impression it wouldn't be as bad.  What the hell?

    The Obama/Biden Inaugural -- the exact moment when the world went from gray to colorful.

    by alkatt on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 09:11:38 AM PDT

  •  No early voting in some states like PA so we are (0+ / 0-)

    in the midst of a heavy push of GOTV.

    Energizing younger voters to show up and vote is what the President seems to be concentrating on with his rallies. And he is getting heavy turnout for his appearances.  And the crowd tends to skew younger which is a good sign too.

    I am thinking the younger voters may vary state to state in terms of how many show up to vote.

    And I think in the East, GOTV is in high gear the last week. This is especially true for states with no early voting.

  •  Ill. Dems committ unforced absentee ballot error (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TampaCPA, dotster, coffejoe

    http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmem...

    "Errors on applications sent by the Illinois Democratic Coordinated Campaign to wannabe absentee voters could mean that thousands of voters in the state won't receive their ballots before election day.

    This year for the first time, Illinois voters are allowed to vote by mail without giving a reason for their absence from the polls on Election Day. The IDCC hired a company to send out applications to make it easier for voters to receive such ballots. But because the applications are first being routed through the Democratic Party, they might not make it to the Lake County clerk in time for Thursday's deadline.

    An Illinois county election official told Chicago's ABC 7 that thousands, and potentially hundreds of thousands, of voters who anticipate receiving a ballot in the mail may not get them in time.

    There could also be problems because some of the applications that were sent to voters had the wrong birthday on them, which could render them invalid."

    If this costs Gianoulis the election, and possibly the Democrats control of the Senate, what should happen to the people who screwed this up?

  •  "but if you are not registered, you can't vote" (0+ / 0-)

    Wrong for states with at the polls registration. Here in Wisconsin, our 18 and 19 year olds don't generally bother to pre-register, but still turn out at the highest, or 2nd to Minnesota, in the country.

    Since nationmal pollsters don't modify their calling procedure to reflect this fact, they regularly under-report actual Democratic voting by 2-3 percent. It's these invisible votes that put Feingold over the top in 1998, and will again next week.

    Agricultural hemp is "Jobs, Jobs, Jobs."

    by ben masel on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 09:43:34 AM PDT

    •  actually an excellent point (0+ / 0-)

      since early voting does not equal early voting =same day registration for increasing turnout.

      the former does not, the latter does.

      But I am still right of course, becasue registration is registration,same day or otherwise.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 09:48:40 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Early voting in NC (0+ / 0-)

      allows people to register and vote all at once - but only during early voting, not on Election day itself.

      There should never be a tax benefit for companies that screw over American workers.

      by bear83 on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 11:11:16 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I think this is going to be another one of (0+ / 0-)

    those "Dewey Defeats Truman" debacles for the MSM.

    MSNBC is blaring headlines on its site right now that the GOP will take the House.

    Fuck them (not Rachel, KO, or Ed Schultz, tho).  Let them rot in media hell w/Glenn & Rush and the rest of their delusional ilk.

  •  Joe Sestak NEEDS HELP! Toomey ahead (0+ / 0-)

    Please, please if you live in PA knock on doors, and send$  I will be out this weekend.
    (From Philly.COM)

    Toomey back on top in Pennsylvania

    New polling data indicates that Pennsylvania Republican Senate hopeful Pat Toomey has regained the lead he held for months, thanks largely to continued strength among independent voters.

    After Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak closed the gap recently to take a narrow lead in the competitive race, Toomey surged back ahead this week, according to the state’s two largest polling institutes. A Franklin & Marshall College survey released Wednesday morning showed Toomey leading by seven points among likely voters, 43 percent to 36 percent.

    That finding substantiated movement in the Muhlenberg College daily tracking poll, which swung 11 points in the span of a week—from a 3-point edge for Sestak last Wednesday to an 8-point lead for Toomey on Tuesday. That advantage leveled out to five points in the tracking poll on Wednesday.

    By all accounts, the race remains close as the candidates enter a homestretch packed with furious retail campaigning. A Reuters poll earlier in the week showed the race tied, with each candidate winning 46 percent of likely voters.

    But taken together, the latest polling data seemed to signal that Sestak's surge was in large part due to solidified support among his own party, and that Toomey was still performing well with the critical bloc of independent voters.

    "There was no sudden movement in the polls benefitting Sestak," Toomey pollster Jon Lerner wrote earlier in the week, in a memo obtained by POLITICO. "Rather it was the common and expected phenomenon of strong partisan Democrats moving back to their party’s candidate."

     

  •  I early voted yesterday in Central Illinois (0+ / 0-)

    Most of the people their were in their forties, but strikingly, a young (early 20s?) couple came in to take advantage of the new law allowing grace period registration and voting.  The process involves identification and taking an oath from the county clerk.  Here is a link about Grace Period Registration and Voting in Cook County:

    http://www.cookcountyclerk.com/...

    "What about the headless bodies, Governor?" --- Members of the press yelling after a fleeing Jan Brewer, 9/1/2010

    by Pangloss on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 11:09:36 AM PDT

  •  Early Voting in NC - Indy's Staying Home (0+ / 0-)

    Early voting stats thru 10/26 for NC:
    Dem: 44.91%
    GOP: 37.90%
    Indy: 17.09%

    Democrats turnout margin over GOP thru 10/26: 7.01%
    Democrats turnout margin over GOP thru 10/25: 6.61%
    The Dems' margin has increased every day since 10/20, when it was 6.04%.

    Registration by party:
    Dem: 44.65%
    GOP: 31.59%
    Indy: 23.61%

    Party registration has not budged during early voting, when voters can show up, register, and vote all at the same time. Only 3,867 voters have been added to the registration rolls during early voting - 1,588 GOP, 1,447 Indy, 749 Dem, and 83 Libs. With almost 6.2 million registered voters, that doesn't move the needle any.

    Bottom line: Dems are outperforming their registration numbers by .3%, GOPTeabaggers are outperfoming their registration numbers by 6.3%, and Indys are underperforming by 6.5%.

    I guess you could say the enthusiasm gap is twice as bad with Indy's as it is with Democrats in NC.

    NC Board of Elections

    There should never be a tax benefit for companies that screw over American workers.

    by bear83 on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 11:15:18 AM PDT

    •  see my early voting link (0+ / 0-)

      in main post.... early voting is for partisans.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Wed Oct 27, 2010 at 11:36:10 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site