In order to take back a majority of seats in the House of Representatives, the party out of power needs to win the national popular vote by around 2.5%.
With that in mind, here’s how the generic congressional ballot polls looked in the final 25 days before the 2006 election (I have found the 25-day simple mean to be the most accurate way to forecast elections). Republicans were doomed:
House 2006: Party in power doomed
Every single generic congressional ballot poll at the end of the 2006 campaign showed Republicans losing the House. The final average of the polls gave Republicans a 0% chance of keeping the House. It was over.
Now, here’s how the generic ballot polls taken in the final 25 days of the 2010 election look:
House 2010: Party in power not doomed
(Note: Zogby Internet polls not included in either chart. All polls are of likely voters.)
In 2010, 4 of the 21 polls show Democrats in a position to retain the House. Also, the current average gives Democrats a 16% of retaining control. That isn’t great, but it’s a lot better than 0%.
The bottom line is that Democrats can still win, according to the totality of available evidence. Further, today is the last day when you can give to campaigns, and which they can deposit the money in time to spend it before Election Day.
So this is really it. Contribute to Orange to Blue candidates today.
And really, how firggin’ sweet would it be to win after all the tea party crap we have put up with over the last two years?