Nate's got a little throw away piece where he "fleshes out the caveats" on his predictions. It's a long winded piece that spends more time trying to calm Republicans for daring to imply that Dems have a chance, but in the end, what he points out is that:
if our forecasts turn out to be biased against Democrats by just 2 points overall, the party becomes about an even-money bet to hold the House.
Oh, really? You don't say...
What's irritated me most of all is an acceptance of the beltway narrative from even great bloggers, let alone the mainstream press.
Knowing what everyone knows, it's still polite to play the parlor game (with neato graphics!) of taking polls as realistic, and not just the stabs in the dark, if not outright narrative setting pieces of propaganda that they are.
Digby, who I love to read, is constantly throwing in the towel. One of her latest pieces reads:
Look for them to get even angrier and more incoherent once they've won. It's just how they roll.
There are more from her and more all over the blogosphere.
I'd have to say that KOS is one place I find the most stoic "let's-wait-and-see-until-the-only-poll-that-matters-arrives," and even some great, outright pep-talk from some diarists. But even here there are those that breezily refer to scenarios where Dems keep the house as "fun fiction."
As if there aren't enough reasons to critique, if not disregard polls, this one from Nate's very story about the swing that 2 points would make includes a link to this study showing that merely excluding cell phones can make a 4 point difference.
Point is, I'm thinkin' of fat ladies and Yogi Berra... Tell Digby to cheer up.