I live in Las Vegas, Nevada, and for the last two weeks I haven't been able to think of anything other than this race. I don't know what, exactly, is happening, but I don't feel at all confident. I'm hoping that there is a significant "GOP for Reid" vote, and a negligible dem drain to Angle, after Reid's last ad buy featuring prominent Nevadan Republicans expressing their support. Anyway, I figure it might relieve some tension for me if I bring people up to speed.
I'm hopeful, worried, and actually kind of pissed.
I'm sure many of you know Jon Ralston by now; he's been on MSNBC a fair number of times with Keith, Rachel, and Matthews to discuss this race. Well, this is the last post he had on his blog:
GOP closing in on 5 percentage point edge in Clark County, but Democrats have 14,000 raw vote lead in urban Nevada
By Jon Ralston · October 28, 2010 · 8:57 AM
More than 228,000 people have now voted in Clark County at the polls or by mail – 46 percent Democrats (a tick above their registration) and 38 percent Republicans (about 5 points more than their registration). Republicans now have nearly a 5 percent turnout lead in Clark – the next two days, presumably the heaviest, could be key to the U.S. Senate race.
About 54,000 people have voted early in Washoe County, with the Republicans holding a 3 percent edge. Rural tallies are harder to come by, but one knowledgeable source says the total number voted is now about 330,000, and the Republicans have under a 4 percent edge. (It was 6 percent overall in 2006, but more people proportionally will vote early this year, so it’s not apples to apples.)
It appears that 60 percent at least will vote before Tuesday, perhaps even two-thirds.
Total Clark early voting percentages relative to registration:
Democrats: 27.2 percent
Republicans: 31.4 percent
Total Clark with mail ballots added (Democrats now have a 2,200-ballot lead):
Democrats: 31.2 percent
Republicans: 36.0 percent
Total urban early vote:
Democrats: 112,944 (26.8 percent)
Republicans: 100,970 (30.5 percent)
Total urban early vote (including absentees in Clark):
Democrats: 126,296 (29.9 percent)
Republicans: 112,164 (33.9 percent)
For numbers geeks:
CLARK:
Wednesday: Dems, 9,981 Rs, 8,194 rest, 3,722
Early: Dems, 91,356; Rs, 76,511 rest, 32,162
Mail: Dems, 13,352; Rs, 11,194 rest, 3,558
Combined: Dems, 104,708, Rs, 87,705 rest, 35,720
WASHOE:
Ds: 21,588 (25 percent)
Rs: 24,459 (28.1 percent)
http://www.lasvegassun.com/...
As you know, Clark is where all the votes are. And as it stands now, I believe we have a lead of 46 to 38. Now, thats slim for Nevada, but if there is a substantial GOP for Reid vote, and Indies break evenly here, then things might turn out OK. But what really was a kick in the gut was that figure cited by Ralston about the rural vote, which is the first figure I've heard about it. Usually on these early voting updates in NV, you get the urban vote. But it sounds like there are 50,000 rural votes we don't even have a clear picture of, and that part of the state is Angle country. We need to win Clark by more than 10%, as I see it, to outpace the rest of the state. We still have Friday for early voting, and of course election day. So yes, I am worried, but hopeful about the last minute strategy of the Reid campaign with Republican figures expressing their opposition to Sharron Angle.
But I'm also pissed. I was reading some stuff in the Sun going back to the primaries, and I came across this:
Angle’s victory represents a sort of coup for Team Reid, which plotted a years-long strategy to shape Nevada’s electoral landscape, necessitated in part by the senator’s low approval ratings. Most recently, his campaign played an active role in the GOP primary, hammering away on one-time front-runner Sue Lowden. The relentless attacks, compounded by the candidate’s own gaffes, caused a steep slide for Lowden, a former state senator and Nevada Republican Party chairwoman who had argued that she was the most competitive contender against Reid.
http://www.lasvegassun.com/...
I'll admit that when Angle won the primary, I had a sigh of relief. I thought that she wouldn't have a chance. But now looking back, I feel like this approach was highly irresponsible. If Reid loses, SHARRON ANGLE will be sitting in the Senate. Sharron Angle, will perhaps be the most right wing person to hold federal office in 80 years. Sue Lowden may have been a twit, but she wasn't dangerous. 15% unemployment makes ANYTHING possible in an election cycle. I'm angry because the unthinkable is atleast POSSIBLE right now, and I feel that its only that way because in order to keep his seat, Reid did his best to make sure this woman is his opponent.
Am I being unfair? I think he can win. I'm definitely HOPING he will win. But the problem is that its possible he can lose; and if he does, the person he helped maneuver to run against because she would be a DISASTER if elected would actually be elected. And if that happens I'm not only going to be disappointed and depressed, I'm going to be pissed. And not just at the right.