As a Texan and a hard working volunteer for Bill White for governor I find it amazing how much of late White is getting written off. Rest assured White is very much in this race and don’t be surprised if he is the victor Nov 2nd. Many polls are flawed- using old models based on presumptions from past Tx guv races while White is running a very different, aggressive campaign aimed at specific set of voters.
What do I mean? White's unique strategy. He has 20 state field offices with nearly 20,000 volunteers who for a near year have been knocking on doors, registering voters, talking to residents in counties that Perry hasn’t visited in decades and much more. White will not be outworked- and do not underestimate a hard worker. He has visited some 230 out of 254 Texas counties! Pundits and some pollsters overlook how much groundwork White is doing that is changing the state of this race.
White has campaigned heavily in every sector of Texas. Why? Why campaign hard in Ft Worth or parts of E Texas? Because a chunk of these voters are tired of Perry- our 10 year incumbent- and if White can win even a minority of these voters it will blunt Perry’s lead greatly as the White camp works to boost big turnout in the Valley, Houston, Austin etc..
Recent polling confirms- like the UT Poll- that there are some consistent trends. White supporters are about 75pct very likely to vote for him. Perry’s- only about 50pct of his say they are definites. That is significant. Of great note in many polls- Libertarian Glass, a frequent fixture at tea party events and guest on daily Tx radio programs, is pulling anywhere from 3-8 pct of the vote. There are some Tx Republicans who aren’t wild about Perry after the so very many controversies over the years- oh like forcing all young girls to get HPV vaccines which infuriated many conservatives - who do find Glass appealing. If Glass pulls even this small amount of votes it likely will pull Perry under 50pct of the vote- which would be very bad news for the GOP.
Of note also in most polls is the large number of undecideds- around 10-12pct. A big number for a incumbent 10year governor no? These undecideds many say will break for White and not for Perry. Undecideds include some Kay Bailey supporters from the guv primary who feel jilted by Perry’s primary win over Hutchinson. So if Glass is really pulls say 5-8pct of the vote, and undecideds break mostly for White you can see this race is a barnburner- a 3-4 point gap between the 2 count on it.
Perry has had a rough month. Multiple new scandals have been major news here. Perry apparently cut a check of tax payer funds- 4.5 mil- to a crony- after the state’s board rejected such a grant. It is against the law to override this board. Stories on Perry misusing his enterprise slush fund of our money to dole out to campaign benefactors to the tune of 17 mil continues. And then we have this truly outlandish one- a whistleblower came out saying Perry uh encouraged TRS (Teacher Retirement System) Pension Board members to steer teacher’s pension funds into Perry crony investments. Calls have been made in Tx media for the SEC to investigate Perry and educators are a force here- well over one million strong can make a big difference.
Several indicators show Perry is in a tight race. One- his refusal to debate shows his fear of having to answer ethics questions in a close race. Two- Of late as many of you know we have had tea party funded thugs harassing Latino and African Americans at the polls to the point where the DOJ is now involved and is here in Texas gathering testimony and preparing action. If you are 10 points ahead why try and suppress voters in Bill White strongholds?
ABC 13 in Houston has been on the scene on the suppression games:
And three-- the past week Perry issued a disgusting Sharron Angle style ad on immigration. Perry is running a ad with a officer’s widow in it essentially blaming White for her husband- who was a cop- for getting shot to death. The ad claims White made Houston a haven for those illegals and thus is responsible for the murder of a officer in Houston’s police force. Disgusting and beyond the pale- and lots of Texans are reacting very negatively to this desperate attack ad. Burnt Orange shows why this ad is so sick and false:
Ad:
BOR-
Rick Perry’s latest TV ad is blatantly false in its claim that Bill White supported sanctuary city policies, and is purposefully misleading to suggest that Bill White’s policies led to Officer Johnson’s death. Additionally, Perry's campaign is exploiting a widow whose husband has died -- knowing full well that the reasons her husband died have absolutely nothing to do with any of the claims Perry has made.
Three reasons the ad is a total lie:
The exploitation of a grieving widow is obscene, so much so that it could backfire on Perry.
The claim made in the ad that "Bill White supported sanctuary city policies" is demonstrably FALSE. I wrote about why it is false earlier today -- go here to read my post, "Rick Perry Will Threaten Reporters Who Point Out He Is Lying About Sanctuary Cities."
Suggesting Bill White’s policies led to Officer Johnson’s death - FALSE
Juan Quintero is the name of the "undocumented alien" who killed Sgt. Johnson’s husband. He faced two separate incidents prior to his 1999 sexual indecency conviction, though neither of those incidents involved the Houston Police Department. Prior to the shooting, Quintero’s criminal record consisted exclusively of crimes that predate Bill White’s tenure as Mayor:
8/12/1995: Univ. of Houston/Downtown College PD: Failure to Stop and Give Info & Driving while Intoxicated, Convicted, Class B Misdemeanor. (Source - PDF)
8/31/1996: Metropolitan Transit Authority PD Houston: Driving While License Suspended, Convicted, Class B Misdemeanor, Transferred to County. (Source - PDF)
- Quintero convicted of a sex crime and forced to register as a sex offender. (Source)
When Quintero was convicted of a sex crime, he was deported. He re-entered the country months later, but there is no police record to show he was ever picked up by police until he shot Officer Johnson in 2006.
A story from KPRC-TV in Houston at the time said that Officer Johnson was killed by a gun Quintero had hidden in his pants -- a gun Officer Johnson missed when he patted down Quintero before he placed him in the car.
Rick Perry will lie, lie, lie his way to Election Day. Let's hope the press calls him out for it.
http://www.burntorangereport.com/...
If Houston is some sanctuary city than Texas must be some sanctuary state as Perry hasn’t touched changing the rules via legislature or pressing Congress on the matter. A candidate really running way ahead never runs a jarring over reach attack ad in the final week. Its too risky. You run a negative ad like this because your internals show a very tight race and you are freaking out.
Don’t worry- White never leaves a Perry smear unchecked. EVER and hit back the next day with a new ad hammering Perry on these very issues:
So in total Rick Perry is in MAJOR trouble. White is running a campaign not based on what the pundits and pollsters simply assume- that White is merely consumed with turning out his Dem base. Yes dems are crucial to win but he has focused on roughly 5 pct of the TX voter- about 250,000 - who are unaffiliated, disaffected moderate Repubs (like the many Kay Bailey funders who endorsed White), and others. His GOTV operation is large in scope and covers the state. It is well funded. His ads against Perry have been well crafted hitting on the issues esp. education, college tuition, and the 25 billion dollar deficit Perry created.
Even Charlie Cook has refused to move the Tx guv race into a safe for Perry column. He argues this thing is closer than some assume. Perry has been around 10 years with nothing but scandals galore. His supporters are weary and not as enthusiastic about him. Those who want Perry out are very very enthusiastic about ousting him! GOTV will bring out new voters the pollsters didn’t anticipate, bring out folks in greater numbers that simply haven’t been accounted for by those pundits, peel off those who would normally vote GOP but just cant swallow Perry’s band any longer, and maybe even get more folks esp. Latinos furious over Perry’s bating ad on "illegals."
This race will be very very close. Some may doubt it but those of us here in Tx see the winds of change. Perry literally every day under some new corruption scandal. Even many rural Texans wont line up for Rick- the Tx Farm Bureau has refused to endorse Perry this time. Valley officials who in the past backed Perry and Bush are behind White. All Tx papers have now endorsed White- something unseen for a Dem here in decades. Even Perry’s Tx A &M paper- his lama matter- said no Texan should vote for Rick if they care about the cost of college and the value true Aggies have. YIKES.
Polls can be deceptive. MSM can too as we all know way to well. Perry of late says he wont raise any tax to help cover his 25 bil deficit hole. He wants to destroy what is left of welfare for this most in need here, force mass teacher layoffs- and yes he wont take the teacher money congress passed a few months ago, and in general make Tx the worst state in the Union for education, poverty etc.. We must work with White and make sure in these final few days we stop Perry. No doubt Perry is very stoppable right now!
Here is the Marist poll on the race from last week showing Perry under 50, (46-41) the Glass effect and White strong with mods, indies, dems and close-
Our poll, which uses the largest sample size we have seen for this race, and therefore has the lowest margin of error, reveals a tight race for Governor between Bill White and Rick Perry. The Governor garners net negative job performance ratings among independents and fails to reach the crucial 50% mark.
White And Perry Are Locked In A Tight Battle
White trails Perry by only five points, 41% to 46%. Libertarian Party candidate Kathie Glass gets 5% of the vote, and 7% of the electorate has yet to make up their minds. Importantly, Perry is well below the 50% threshold, reinforcing the conclusion that this remains a very winnable race for Mayor White.
White leads Perry among several key subgroups. Self-identified moderates
prefer White by a wide, 28-point margin (54% to 26%). And White has
consolidated his base to a greater extent
than Perry: 81% of Democrats support
White, while only 77% of Republicans
prefer their party’s nominee.
When the vote question is asked without
minor party candidates, the margin
remains at five points (44% to 49%).
Crucially, the incumbent Perry falls short
of the 50% mark. Since undecideds
usually break for the challenger, the
race is headed toward a close finish in
November.
A Majority Of Indepdendents Rate Perry’s Job Performance Negatively
Among independents, a critical swing segment of the electorate, a large majority of these swing voters give Perry negative marks (58% negative, 36% positive). Nearly a third (31%) of independents say Perry has done a "poor" job.
In short, this remains a very close race against a 10-year incumbent Governor.
http://action.billwhitefortexas.com/...
And few stats of what White campaign has been up to the past 4 months alone:
Some stats :
Over 32,000 -- unique individual contributors to Bill White for Texas.
Over 220 -- Texas counties we have contributions from.
Over 20 -- regional headquarters.
Over 120,000 -- phone calls made in one week.
Over 3000 -- number of volunteers signed up in recent days to GOTV.
73 -- counties tireless candidate White went to in just 84 days.
51 -- number of education events since December.
14 -- number of Chambers of Commerce events since December.
17 -- number of Rotary Club events since December.
White closing ad out today:
UPDATE 1- YALL WILL LOVE THIS ONE FROM TODAY:
San Angelo was the first of five cities White will visit today. He arrived in San Angelo Tuesday evening and flew out to Dallas shortly after his event this morning.
Most of the people who attended the event were longtime Democrats, but some crossover supporters attended, including Mayor Alvin New, who supported U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison in the March primary election for the Republican governor candidacy.
New said having a statewide candidate in the community was "enough to bring me out," but that he also wanted to hear what White had to say and learn more about him.
"In the primary, I supported Kay Bailey Hutchison, so I’m open to someone besides Rick Perry," he said.
New said he liked most of what White said, including his assertion that college education has gotten too expensive.
"I like some of his spending priorities better than I like Perry’s spending priorities," New said. "As I said in the Kay Bailey Hutchison race, I don’t think San Angelo is well cared for by Rick Perry and so I’m just listening and learning and hoping that an alternative would be better for our city."
http://www.gosanangelo.com/...
Help make GOTV calls or donate in these final days for White! We can do this and it would be HUGE.
http://billwhitefortexas.com/