Lisa Murkowski (R) 30 (34)
Joe Miller (R) 37 (35)
Scott McAdams (D) 30 (27)
You know it's a crazy year when the Democrats' best pickup opportunity is frickin' Alaska.
As I've been writing for weeks, this race hinges on Democrats coming home:
Miller is winning despite having the worst personal favorability numbers of the three candidates. Only 36% have a positive opinion of him while 59% view him in a negative light. McAdams is by far the most popular with 50% rating him favorably to only 30% with an unfavorable one. Voters aren't very enamored with Murkowski either, giving her a 37/53 approval rating.
How can McAdams be so much more popular than Miller yet still be trailing the race? It's because 92% of the small group of voters that does like Miller is planning to vote for him. But only 56% of the voters with a positive opinion of McAdams are intending to cast their ballots for him, while 31% of them are going for Lisa Murkowski.
Looking at the internals, turns out that Murkowski is still getting 28% of the vote, which is more than the 25 percent she was getting when PPP polled Alaska for us back in October 9-10. It may be statistical noise, but point is, McAdams isn't picking up that support.
If he did, he'd be at 37 points, tied with Miller.
We can win this, but only if Alaska Democrats stop trying to give Murkowski a lifeline. That's why Bill Clinton is robocalling for McAdams, that's why Murkowski is suddenly pretending she might not caucus with the Republicans (even though she's "still a Republican).
This race will be decided by the Democratic vote. It would hurt if it gave McConnell/DeMint another vote instead of electing a second Democratic senator from their great state.