This diary isn't meant to argue that the Democrats won't suffer losses Tuesday. It's pretty clear they will, & they may lose the House or Senate or both. Rather, this is simply to show why I think polls that show the GOP with sizable leads are wrong, & Tuesday's results will be much closer than the MSM thinks.
Just about every "reputable" polling company does not poll people who use cell phones only. I know people have talked about this before, but I don't think the true extent of the effect of this is understood. Take a look at this:
According to a study by the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), one out of every four American families does not own a landline phone. Instead, 25 percent of American households are only using mobile phones. Further reinforcing the primacy of mobile devices, the study found that 15 percent of families that do own landlines receive all or almost all calls through cell phones.
So right away, 25% of the American public are not included in political polling. Add in the 15% who do not use the landlines they have, & you're up to 40%. But because I don't know what they mean when they say "receive all or almost all calls" (do they never use the landline?), I'll stick to the 25%. A full quarter of the American population is left out. With that large a portion excluded, how can these polls be taken seriously?
Who are we talking about exactly?
Nearly 50 percent of 25-year-olds did not live in a household with a landline. The vast majority of exclusive cell phone users were under the age of 40.
Over 40 percent of home renters had no landlines and were 14 percent more likely to have no landlines than home owners. And those at or near the poverty line were 20 percent more likely to only have mobile phones than their counterparts. Not only does refusing a landline make people more mobile, it's a cost-cutting maneuver.
Which party usually wins the votes of these people? McClatchy did a poll that showed that Dems led by 26 points among these people. A poll of the Oregon Governor's race showed Kitzhaber with an 8 point lead when cell phone users are included. The vaunted Nate SiAgain, I'm not saying the Dems won't lose seats, & I'm not saying they won't lose the House or Senate (although I think losing the House is far more likely). But there is no way you can ignore these people and continue to call your poll legitimate. Tuesday will be much more interesting that the MSM will have you believe.