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The Blue Dogs seem to be a "wave election" phenomenon.  After big gains in 2006 and 2008, the ranks of Democrats swelled and Blue Dogs came in to prominence.  Now, I have nothing against a big tent in the Democratic party, but the Blue Dogs seem to have a habit of obstructing or watering-down Democratic legislation.  Perhaps Blue Dogs believe this is a center-right nation, and coming from conservative districts they felt it was in their best interests to push the Democratic party to the right.

But did the strategy work? It seems that when the "Democratic brand" goes sour that Blue Dogs take a bloodbath at the polls.  If the nation truly is turning center-right in 2010, shouldn't the Blue Dogs have retained more seats?  It is something for both Blue Dogs and the Democratic establishment to ponder after 2010.

I'm not blaming Blue Dogs for 2010, but rather I wish the Dems didn't cater as much to them.  The Dems have problems with messaging, and the economy doomed Dems in 2010.

numbers below the fold.

Here is the current Blue Dog scorecard as of  Election Night Thread #28

The list of Blue Dogs comes from The Blue Dog Coalition: 15 Years of Leadership membership page:

Blue Dog Leadership Team

Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (SD) , Blue Dog Co-Chair for Administration

Rep. Baron Hill (IN-09) , Blue Dog Co-Chair for Policy

Rep. Jim Matheson (UT-02), Blue Dog Co-Chair for Communications

Rep. Heath Shuler (NC-11), Blue Dog Whip

Blue Dog Members

Altmire, Jason (PA-04)
Arcuri, Mike (NY-24)
Baca, Joe (CA-43)
Barrow, John (GA-12)
Berry, Marion (AR-01)
Bishop, Sanford (GA-02)
Boren, Dan (OK-02)
Boswell, Leonard (IA-03)
Boyd, Allen (FL-02)
Bright, Bobby (AL-02)
Cardoza, Dennis (CA-18)
Carney, Christopher (PA-10)
Chandler, Ben (KY-06)
Childers, Travis (MS-01)
Cooper, Jim (TN-05)
Costa, Jim (CA-20)
Cuellar, Henry (TX-28)
Dahlkemper, Kathy (PA-03)
Davis, Lincoln (TN-04)
Donnelly, Joe (IN-02)
Ellsworth, Brad (IN-08)
Giffords, Gabrielle (AZ-08)
Gordon, Bart (TN-06)
Harman, Jane (CA-36)
Herseth Sandlin, Stephanie (SD)
Hill, Baron (IN-09)
Holden, Tim (PA-17)
Kratovil, Jr., Frank (MD-01)
McIntyre, Mike (NC-07)
Markey, Betsy (CO-04)
Marshall, Jim (GA-08)
Matheson, Jim (UT-02)
Melancon, Charlie (LA-03)
Michaud, Mike (ME-02)
Minnick, Walt (ID-01)
Mitchell, Harry (AZ-05)
Moore, Dennis (KS-03)
Murphy, Patrick (PA-08)
Murphy, Scott (NY-20)
Nye, Glenn (VA-02)
Peterson, Collin (MN-07)
Pomeroy, Earl (ND)
Ross, Mike (AR-04)
Salazar, John (CO-03)
Sanchez, Loretta (CA-47)
Schiff, Adam (CA-29)
Schrader, Kurt (OR-05)
Scott, David (GA-13)
Shuler, Heath (NC-11)
Space, Zack (OH-18)
Tanner, John (TN-08)
Taylor, Gene (MS-04)
Thompson, Mike (CA-01)
Wilson, Charles (OH-06)

26 of 54 gone (48%) with the west still to report.  

UPDATE: Bishop, Sanford (GA-02) now ahead but undecided (was marked as a loss).  Some good news.

UPDATE 2: Minnick, Walt (ID-01) gone.  Going to bed 2am PST.

Originally posted to TheGeneral on Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 11:44 PM PDT.

Poll

Blue Dogs

5%7 votes
7%9 votes
5%6 votes
26%31 votes
54%64 votes

| 117 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  Rat bastard Adam Schiff (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    rasbobbo, chuckvw, Greg in TN, kurt

    still there?

    (co-sponsor of the PATRIOT act)

    41 million Americans on food stamps. So let's help bankers moar.

    by tiggers thotful spot on Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 11:47:25 PM PDT

    •  best district attorney on law & order ever! (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      chuckvw, Greg in TN

      Whatever action a great man performs, common men follow. And whatever standards he sets by exemplary acts, all the world pursues. The Gita 3.21

      by rasbobbo on Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 11:58:40 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Unfortunately (0+ / 0-)

      I live in his district. I voted for him ... mostly because, well, there wasn't another option. I honestly think this District could go left - it's just a matter of finding the right candidate.

      I'd really like to see a decent Democrat in his place. Having to vote for one of my least favorite Dems every two years really sucks the fun out of my straight Dem ticket.

  •  Marshall (Ga 8) (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Sandy on Signal, TheGeneral

    also gone

  •  Go win in a rural conservative Georgia district (5+ / 0-)

    with left agenda. Blue dogs were the MCs who gave the democrats the majority. Without them, well i guess we are going to enjoy our minority status for another decade or so.

    Don't give a damn a/t each & every politician currently alive in the US. Last time i voted for the top part of the ballot was 1972. Never missed SB election

    by Mutual Assured Destruction on Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 11:51:04 PM PDT

    •  I agree (10+ / 0-)

      But the Blue Dogs need to realize that a strong Democratic brand is all they've got.  They come in in a wave and leave in a wave.  Disparaging and obstructing Democratic legislation isn't helpful.

      If Republicans needed Dems to fail, Blue Dogs desperately needed Dems to succeed.

      •  They vote their districts' preference... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        libnewsie, sewaneepat, Dr Teeth

        So you can't expect them to vote with you all the time. Now, we have 2 parties with no center at all.

        Don't give a damn a/t each & every politician currently alive in the US. Last time i voted for the top part of the ballot was 1972. Never missed SB election

        by Mutual Assured Destruction on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 12:01:07 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  And this is a good outcome for Dems! (5+ / 0-)

          Moving further to the right certainly didn't hurt the Republicans and moving further to the left will not hurt the Democrats!  It will help focus our message and hopefully make our leadership bolder!  It will help bring the progressive base of the Democratic Party back.

          Politicians are like diapers. They should be changed frequently ... and for the same reason

          by Road Dog on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 12:04:16 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  It isn't about Democrats (2+ / 0-)

            A representative doesn't serve the national party.  They serve local Democratic parties.

            The DNC doesn't run the Democratic Party.  There really is no such thing as the Democratic Party.  There are many state and local level parties.  The DNC is a national organization that distributes money to localities, based on who they think has the best chance of winning.

          •  Really....great analysis...meanwhile everyone is (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Dr Teeth

            in the middle. if there is one thing from the exit polls that pops out of the page is that median voter is saying that both parties are too far from me. It is always the party that goes after the voter...not the opposite.

            Don't give a damn a/t each & every politician currently alive in the US. Last time i voted for the top part of the ballot was 1972. Never missed SB election

            by Mutual Assured Destruction on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 12:08:06 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  That's why the progressive base was so (4+ / 0-)

              unenthused?  It certainly was not because the Democratic Party was too far left.  The progressive base was disillusioned because the Democrats were too in the middle.  Good riddance to the DINOs!

              Politicians are like diapers. They should be changed frequently ... and for the same reason

              by Road Dog on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 12:22:24 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Enjoy your minority status for the next 2 or 3 (0+ / 0-)

                decades.

                Don't give a damn a/t each & every politician currently alive in the US. Last time i voted for the top part of the ballot was 1972. Never missed SB election

                by Mutual Assured Destruction on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 12:24:56 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Only time will tell. (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  DaleA, JVolvo, beerh

                  But one thing we know tonight.  The bipartisan approach taken by the Democratic President and Congress this last 2 years led to an electoral bloodbath.  On the other hand the Republican obstructionist further to the right obstructionist agenda paid off handsomely.  

                  IMO we  better get some backbone and guts on our side soon for 2012!
                  Are we going to cave and extend all the Bush tax cuts?  
                  It's funny how much the Republicans got their way these last 2 years.  Can't imagine them changing tactics in the face of success in the next 2.  

                  We catered to the middle and it cost us dearly.  Hope we learned our lesson tonight!

                  Politicians are like diapers. They should be changed frequently ... and for the same reason

                  by Road Dog on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 12:35:00 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

            •  Yeah.... and how did that.... (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Road Dog

              ...work out for y'all today?

    •  Exactly (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      FiredUpInCA

      Too many people ignore the electorate, and try to generalize all areas.  It is a kind of political ignorance that has grown out of nationalistic communications.

      This is the exact reason Democrats can win state wide, but get the floor mopped with them in districts.

      Alan Grayson is a great example of a flawed political compass.

      •  The only thing flawed about Greyson (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        libnewsie, Orange County Liberal

        was an ignorant electorate!  Screw middle of the road bipartisanship!

        Politicians are like diapers. They should be changed frequently ... and for the same reason

        by Road Dog on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 12:05:41 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Then quit politics (0+ / 0-)

          Because that ignorant electorate is who he was asking to represent.

          You do understand that people are choosing their representation for their district, right?

          •  That doesn't forgive stupidity! (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DaleA, libnewsie

            Greyson is a hero of progressives and his constituency was ignorant not to re-elect him.  Sometimes we witness the defeat of Democracy through stupidity.  This is a prime example.  But you are right - the American public ALWAYS get what they deserve.  

            Politicians are like diapers. They should be changed frequently ... and for the same reason

            by Road Dog on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 12:13:52 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  If a candidate moves aways from the median voter (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          libnewsie, Dr Teeth, FiredUpInCA

          of his own district, he gets voted out. Period. When he was elected Grayson ran as a pretty much centrist to left of center kind of candidate. I remember his ads. Then he became Robinhood of the House. And that was it for him. I knew that he was going to have a tough time to win. And you know what, he ran against a very weak and very flawed candidate. If he was opposed by a serious candidate, he would lost by 10 or 15 points at least.

          Don't give a damn a/t each & every politician currently alive in the US. Last time i voted for the top part of the ballot was 1972. Never missed SB election

          by Mutual Assured Destruction on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 12:12:32 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  that's untrue. Michele Bachmann's views (4+ / 0-)

            are actually quite out of step with the voters in MN-06, who voted for Klobuchar for senate in 2006, the same year Bachmann was voted in.

            Yet, she keeps getting re-elected.

            People do not vote on issues. Didn't anyone here learn anything tonight? That's why Citizens United is a nuclear bomb.

            •  They are not. She got close to the median voter (0+ / 0-)

              in her district. Maybe her district is not normally distributed (and i am talking about normal distribution). She attracted more voters to her side. She won.

              Don't give a damn a/t each & every politician currently alive in the US. Last time i voted for the top part of the ballot was 1972. Never missed SB election

              by Mutual Assured Destruction on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 12:19:43 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I live in this district. Do you? (3+ / 0-)

                You're wrong - she attracted the white victim cult, racial resentment, and low information voters who can't answer simple questions about major issues. That's who she got, and there are a lot of them.

                Live in a fantasy of 100% informed electorate if you want - but it's a fantasy.

                •  She wins because she gets more voters to vote (0+ / 0-)

                  for her than the other candidate. Therefore, she gets the median voter in that district on her side. This is not rocket science.

                  Don't give a damn a/t each & every politician currently alive in the US. Last time i voted for the top part of the ballot was 1972. Never missed SB election

                  by Mutual Assured Destruction on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 12:23:46 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Wow, you really are thick (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    DaleA, Road Dog

                    perhaps you are a bachmann voter? She won because people voted against their own views and interests. They do not agree with her on specific issues.

                    •  Do you understand what a median voter is? I think (0+ / 0-)

                      we are not talking about the same thing. You are talking from a normative perspective and i am talking from an empirical one.

                      Since you called me thick...i say to you good night...oh by the way, go read about the median voter and then we can have a conversation.

                      Don't give a damn a/t each & every politician currently alive in the US. Last time i voted for the top part of the ballot was 1972. Never missed SB election

                      by Mutual Assured Destruction on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 12:27:29 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

          •  He put principle before politics. (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DaleA, libnewsie

            Sometimes the motivation is something more than just winning re-election.  I applaud Alan Greyson.  He is the type of leader of which we need more of in the Democratic Party!

            Politicians are like diapers. They should be changed frequently ... and for the same reason

            by Road Dog on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 12:17:12 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  The first job of a politician is to win elections (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              FiredUpInCA

              He is no good if he doesn't. No good to anyone. We don't need Che Guevaras and martyrs. We need rational politicians who can work on legislation and win elections. Now he is no use for anyone.

              And if we had a Congress of full of Alan Grayson, we would have lost 200 seats instead of 55.  

              Don't give a damn a/t each & every politician currently alive in the US. Last time i voted for the top part of the ballot was 1972. Never missed SB election

              by Mutual Assured Destruction on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 12:22:29 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Your name is appropriate. (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Orange County Liberal

                The reason why the Democrats suffered such a great defeat tonight is because they played to bipartisanship.  It solidified mutually assured destruction because their message was muddled and they pleased nobody.  They mutually bipartisaned themselves to a whipping because  of lackluster middle of the road mutually destructiive leadership.  

                Politicians are like diapers. They should be changed frequently ... and for the same reason

                by Road Dog on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 12:26:26 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

  •  from 12% of congress bluedog (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    GayHillbilly, DaleA, kurt, tardis10, Road Dog

    to 5% and decreasing.

    this must mean they'll only control 60% of democratic legislation now.

  •  Goodbye Blue Dogs and Good Luck (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DaleA, kurt, Orange County Liberal

    You will not be missed!!  DINO's need to be purged!

    Politicians are like diapers. They should be changed frequently ... and for the same reason

    by Road Dog on Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 11:57:08 PM PDT

  •  It can't be overstated (12+ / 0-)

    how big a loss for the folks at Third Way and the Blue Dog caucus the loss of Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin is.

    Heath Shuler may cling to the pathological delusion that he might be seen as minority leadership/future Speaker material by his peers, but Herseth-Sandlin, of all the Blue Dogs, was the most likely to be able to sell it and pull it off.

    There is simply no credible argument to be made that being a Blue Dog will prevent you from being mugged by the GOP at this point, you will get the Citizen's United Shiv as easily as a Blue Dog as any other Democrat, and that is the argument that Third Way wants to use, that being an anti-Democratic Party Democrat is a tactically wise move, to move back into the catbird seat in terms of determining the direction of the party.

    •  It also can't be overstated (6+ / 0-)

      how damaging this election is to the traditional arguments made to justify the importance of Blue Dogs, DLC Third-Wayers.

      Half the losers are the biggest proponents of the idea that the only way to win is to tact to the "center", if by "the center" you mean "attacking the majority of the party from the Right".

      The Right didn't get the memo.

      The voters didn't either.

      Citizen's United will be deployed, using the same talking points and lies, against even the most rightwing of Conservative Democrat

      .

      Attacking the left, refusing to vote for your parties agenda, decrying specific liberal pols. None of it will stop the Citizen's United Oligarchy Express from coming at you and taking you out.

      There is no tactical advantage to sandbagging and tearing down your own parties majority, it doesn't buy you any mercy or protection from the Teahad.

      •  If the tactic (5+ / 0-)

        of bashing the majority of the Democratic Party was a viable path to election, or had great appeal to the heartland voter who was not a die-hard Republican, then Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin, of all people, would have cruised to re-election.

        She was the most viable Blue Dog in Congress. Bar none. Smart. Beautiful. Great Speaker. Poised on camera an in front of a crowd. Willing to bash her own party at a moment's notice. Willing to decry and denounce policy and pols in her own circle at will.

        And she was toast. Done.

        She was as targeted as Barney Frank was. Her politics didn't mean a thing.

        She did everything the Third Way DLC Lanny Davis' of the political world tell you that you have to do to win away from more liberal districts.

        The problem is, nobody told the Teabaggers, or the Citizen's United Brigade that they were supposed to give Herseth-Sandlin a pass on the tsunami of lies and smears because she was willing to bash her own party with the best of them.

        •  Notice: (4+ / 0-)

          the tactic to try and shut up people pointing out that the Third Way Blue Dog DLC was a major fail in this election is to say "if you don't agree with me, you don't 'understand' elections/politics".

          It seems to me that the Blue Dogs being wiped out tells me that Blue Dogs don't understand Citizen's United and how it will be deployed, and how this is a game changer in American politics that was underplayed in 2010.

          What happens in 2012 will make Citizen's United in 2010 look like a walk in the park.

          There is no longer a valid Third Way DLC Blue Dog tactical argument. You get the same shiv that every other Democrat gets.

          If you vote for a Democrat as a leader, that's it, even if you oppose everything else the Democratic Party stands for or proposes, you are a "Marxist Radical" now.

          As "guilty" of socialism as Barney Frank and Nancy Pelosi.

          There is no triangulating your way out of a Movement Conservative beatdown.

  •  You don't understand elections (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sewaneepat

    Blue dogs aren't Democrats that choose to move to the center.  They are centrist Democrats, who are selected by a centrist constituency.

    This is what is wrong with a nationalistic progressive gathering, like you see here on dkos.  People come to think that politics is a division between Fox and MSNBC.

    A rust belt Democrat is different than a New England Democrat.  They are different, because the districts themselves are different.

    The west coast is heavily Democratic, but most western states have no connection with labor unions.  Their frame of reference is completely different.

    Politicians don't choose who they are.  Voters choose which politicians they want to represent them.

  •  I think Altimre is gone too (0+ / 0-)

    "Nothing in the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity." -- Martin Luther King Jr.

    by dr fatman on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 12:13:15 AM PDT

  •  Altmire and Bishop have won or leading n/t (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TheGeneral

    When we got into office, the thing that surprised me most was to find that things were just as bad as we'd been saying they were. -JFK

    by optimusprime on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 12:24:27 AM PDT

  •  Blue dogs are the last elected and first to go (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DaleA, libnewsie, sewaneepat

    They are the folks elected in more conservative areas when things are going our way.  It stands to reason that they'd be the ones to go when thie trends don't favor Dems.

  •  Minnick's gone too (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TheGeneral

    Strike another one.

    Reporters in Kentucky invented a game called "White Male Liberty Patriot Bingo," checking off a box every time a Tea Partier mentions a black friend.

    by killjoy on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 01:33:03 AM PDT

  •  I say yay! (0+ / 0-)

    Plus this could serve as a big warning shot to the remaining Blue Dogs.  Either fall in line and start acting like real dems or you could be next in 2012.

  •  Near half of the Republican victories (0+ / 0-)

    ...were over worthless Blue Dogs, and don't really represent a political shift.

    We would be just a little bit closer to world peace if everyone would just grow some f-ing skin!

    by Subversive on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 03:28:30 AM PDT

  •  Bart Gordon needs to be crossed off (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sewaneepat

    the list.  He retired, then his seat slipped into Repub hands.  Kind of like a mini-Bayh thing.  He's gone.

    We are all alike, on the inside. - Mark Twain

    by Sandy on Signal on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 03:38:42 AM PDT

  •  In TN, the Blue Dogs have been replaced by (0+ / 0-)

    Tea Party backed candidates. How is that going to help your agenda?

    Lincoln Davis is the Blue Dog representative from my district and he was trounced by Tea Party backed Scott Desjarlais. Much as I have disliked Davis' positions on certain issues, you can bet I'm going to hate Desjarlais' positions even more. For instance, Davis voted for the Recovery Act (a vote I actually liked); do you think Desjarlais will vote for another stimulus? Davis voted against HCR (a vote that pissed me off), but he would not vote to repeal HCR; Desjarlais will vote to repeal. Davis voted for Pelosi as Speaker and to have Democrats set the agenda and control Committees; how do you think Desjarlais will vote - Tan Man or someone even worse (if that is possible).

    Davis was a step forward from our previous Republican Representative Van Hilleary, who retired to run for Governor. Hilleary was beaten by moderate Democrat Phil Bredesen for Gov. but would have beaten a liberal Democrat if TN Dems had nominated one. Now we are back, not to square 1 but with someone even more conservative than Hilleary.

    It is freaking frustrating to live in a state and district where a Blue Dog is the best I can hope for, but that is just a fact.

    And yes, I am afraid I am going to miss Lincoln Davis - and John Tanner and Bart Gordon.

    •  I'm not advocating the end of Blue Dogs (0+ / 0-)

      I am suggesting that Blue Dogs realize their their fate is directly tied to the Democratic brand.  Stalling or obstructing Democratic agendas plus running away from accomplishments did not help the Blue Dogs in 2010.  

      They desperately need Democrats to succeed in order to keep their seats.  I, nor progressives did not vote them down last night.  They were voted down in a wave despite their best efforts to look conservative.  There is nothing wrong with conservative Democrats.  When they pretend they are the answer and obstruct, there is something wrong.  

  •  Bishop, yes on HCR, won in GA-02 (0+ / 0-)

    a black man in a majority-white conservative rural district.

    He voted yes on HCR and defended it repeatedly, eloquently, both big picture and in detail, in multiple town halls.

    http://www.dailykos.com/...

    If you actually look at his voting record, he's more liberal on many issues than Barack Obama.

    And all most of kossacks have to say is he's a blue dog. Kos even wished for him to lose.

    Ignorance apparently isn't limited to teabaggers.

    If Democrats don't support their own like Bishop, no wonder they lose.

    "Reserve your right to think, for even to think wrongly is better than not to think at all." --Hypatia of Alexandria, c.400

    by jayskew on Thu Nov 04, 2010 at 01:29:03 AM PDT

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