Just a few months ago, even as the congressional prospects for the Democrats got dimmer and dimmer, I would still say that no matter what happens in 2010, that looking at the potential GOP nominees in 2012 that the country would have no other choice than to re-elect Obama.
I'm not so sure anymore.
I think what we just witnessed tonight simply boiled down to a lot of disillusioned voters on the left, a lot of rabid Obama-haters on the right, and a bunch of really stupid "moderates" and "independents" casting anti-Obama votes. So from left to right and in between, it's safe to say that Obama becomes more unpopular with every passing day.
Save for Sarah Palin...I think any cookie-cutter Mitt Romney-esque candidate that would emerge could be a serious contender. I don't expect the economic recovery to get much traction 2 years from now, I don't expect anything of consequence coming out of this new gridlocked Congress either.
Unless magically the economy shoots into the stratosphere and employment numbers rapidly change, there won't be an '84 repeat or a '96 repeat. So what happens if 2 years from now the economy is still faltering with 10% unemployment? What happens if 2 years from now the health reforms passed still don't kick in sufficiently to stand on their own? What if 2 years from now we are still bogged down in MidEast wars?
At this rate I would expect Obama to start hitting the 30s in job approvals by the end of next year. I don't see how the Democrats can recoup a 60 seat loss in the House in just 2 years.
I think we need to all be a little more concerned that his re-election is not going to be 2008 redux, and it could prove harder than 1996 was for Bill to win or Regan's in 84. I simply don't believe that he's a shoe-in based on who the GOP are offering. (except of course 1 particular exception)...
My point is that we need to stop pretending that no matter what happened tonight, that Obama is obviously going to get re-elected. I did not see a 60 seat devastating loss in the House one year ago...I thought 15-20 was optimistic for them, and look how it turned out.
Just don't underestimate the road ahead. Don't assume Obama will win because his opponent will be a kook. After tonight, I think all assumptions should be thrown out the window. He will not be a shoe-in in 2012 and if you've been comforted by that fact...that we'll at least control the WH for the full 8 years....stop being comforted and start working! 2012 will not be a cakewalk, and if the GOP are smart they will keep the worst of the worse of their candidates away, which I expect them to. IF the economy is just as bad today as it will be in 2012--Obama will not have it easy.