Long, long ago, in a galaxy far, far away.....
X-wing fighters at a secret rebel base are readied for combat.
Droids and iPhones are updated with the latest battle apps. ("Kill a Death Star? There's an app for that. Try iTrustForce when firing.")
For close quarter work the armory hums with the sound of light-sabers being tuned and modulated. (Voice faintly heard over sounds of machinery: "Lillehaug likes his blue and tuned to exactly 1.21 gigawatts..." shower of sparks, change in pitch....)
Much of the same cast is back and great things are expected from some new characters (e.g. newcomer Tony Sutton, a breakout star wearing tons of judo body make-up, will portray a new baddie called Jabba the Hutt.)
But before this sequel can start shooting, well, times are tough everywhere. In Hollywood lots of great stories (like my novel) can't find funding to get made. In Minnesota while the script is mostly done there are factors that may keep this recount from happening at all.
Come with me behind the Orange curtain below and I'll note some of them.
Will this Recount happen?
Yes it is likely, but a a couple factors are in play. First are the numbers involved. The total vote for governor as of this morning was 2,106,980. Since the threshold for a recount in MN law is 0.5% or less, this is 10535. The difference between Dayton (D) and Emmer (R) is 8781, so by this calculation its on.
Now yesterday I noted a State Canvassing Board (sounds like an art school supply shop) has been named to oversee the Recount and address certain issues (famously, "challenged ballots.") But first they will determine if a Recount is required. In 2008 this was a slam dunk since the difference between Coleman and Franken to start with was 215 and the threshold was about 14,000 (bigger turnout = higher threshold.)
This time? Well you'll notice 8781 is not all that far away from 10535, about 1754 votes away. The Canvassing Board will meet Nov. 23 to start a Recount IF NEEDED. You see, whats going on right now all across 4136 precincts is that election judges and poll workers (having had a well deserved couple days off) are taking a second look at their work from Tuesday.
"Vell, Sven, how many votes came in from the Torgerson subdivision? Vas it 67?"
"Ole some vone wrote down 76."
They are checking their math to see if totals hold up, if numbers got reversed, if the correct numbers were reported in to the Secretary of State's office. You know. "Check your work before you turn in your papers."
The numbers from 4136 precincts, involving 2,106,980 ballots, attended by over 30,000 poll workers who are fallible human beings, WILL move around a bit. In 2008 people caught just these sort of errors, uncounted ballots from a machine that broke down, transposed numbers, dropped figures. (When you called in a total of 901 at 4:30am to the county seat, did the clerk write down 901? Or mis-hear you and write down 91? Its happened.)
So you can see there is a chance, albeit small, that all those changes might (only might) accumulate enough to swing the numbers by about 1755 or more. At that point the margin will be larger than the mandated 0.5% and the Canvassing Board would be within its rights to declare "No Recount."
If they did this and it stuck it would get noisy. It would save the state of MN about $250,000 to NOT run a statewide Recount ("unnecessary government spending" anyone?) Whether it would be wise for them to do this is another matter. Could the trailing candidate (presumably Emmer) call for one if he is willing to pay for it? Despite my reputation for all things Recount I do not know. Certainly coming up with the money should not be an issue for Tom's friends. But is it allowed? And politically, how smart would it be?
News Bits
100% Politi-Geek Bit:
The total registered voters= 3,128,068. The turnout for the governor's race was heavy then: 67.34% of the electorate. I heard last night at Drinking Liberally that the drop off for the state legislative races was steep: about 55%. That "vote for the top races" phenomenon accounts for part of the Democratic collapse in the lege. The base turned out for both parties. Since there are more voters that vote Democratic the higher the turnout, the bluer the results. In MN the base and more turned out for the governor's race. The Republican base stayed in the voting booth to vote for those other races down ticket. Hence, the big flip.
Return of a Favorite!
Republicans behaving Badly
GOP lawyer, party legal counsel Tony Trimble, regarding Tom Emmer's near miss so far and the GOP gains statewide: "They (the Democrats) are trying to stop the train. We're the train."
Ah, Tony? I'm a big fan of Rail. After what has just happened to Rail in Ohio, Wisconsin and Michigan thanks to the @* Republicans, do NOT use train metaphors! Read the memo, Tony. Trains= original sin=bad.
http://www.dailykos.com/...
From the Star Tribune yesterday (Kevin Duchschere on the byline)
The ill-fated click of a button in Hennepin County (Minneapolis & suburbs) on election night launched a storm of protest Wednesday from Republican leaders.
State GOP Chairman Tony Sutton insisted that faulty vote reporting inthe county, the state''s largest and a DFL (Democratic) stronghold, underscored the need for a recount in the race for governor between Mark Dayton and Tom Emmer.
"Something doesn't smell right with those Hennepin County situations last night with how the votes were reported , and so we are going to be very aggressive through this recount process that we anticipate," Sutton said at a morning news conference.
"Hennepin County elections manager Rachel Smith said there was nothing fishy about what happened....a staff person transmitting a large file of returns, she said, mistakenly hit 'Add' rather than 'Replace'.....the subsequent county vote count was 880,000--nearly double the actual Hennepin vote total of 470,470."
This is where Tony the Hutt got is 400,000 vote error from. He sent Tony Trimble over to "investigate". Rachel Smith (the "coffee cup girl" of election integrity from 2008; she's been promoted to the biggest county in the state) said she and Tony had a very cordial conversation about the matter, "And that was it."
Interesting that Tony Trimble just stood there making train metaphors (having met Rachel Smith before in court, and now face to face on her turf, you can bet the farm Trimble was cordial as hell. No wonder he was well-behaved in public. Tony the Hutt on the other hand, has not met her yet. If he does.....does the phrase "Down goes Frazier" strike a familiar note?
Republicans behaving WELL?
There is one other scenario that avoids a Recount. I think the chance is small and likely I will be chained to this laptop for a long time bringing you updates.
But a Recount can be canceled if the trailing candidate "steps back" (in the famous words of Norm Coleman to Al Franken.) This is a margin of 8700 votes, and the ball is in Tom Emmer's court. Below is a piece I wrote for the commentary page for the Star Tribune. I have not heard back if they will accept it or print it.
Tom Emmer’s $1 Billion Moment
The oddest outcome of the 2010 midterm elections is right here in Minnesota. Yes, in Washington the party of the White House lost seats in Congress, yet oddly enough only one chamber changed hands, not both, an historic first. And yes, in Minnesota the voters have apparently, pending a Recount, given the governor’s office to a Democrat for the first time since 1986...while in the same moment turning control of both Houses of the Minnesota Legislature over to the Republicans. But the oddest outcome still belongs to Tom Emmer.
Tom Emmer has a $1 billion decision to make.
Here is a true test of executive ability. Here is an opportunity to show courage and statesmanship. Here is a chance to do something good for thousands of Minnesotans and it won’t raise taxes 1 cent. It won’t require a bonding bill. It only requires Tom Emmer.
Oddly enough Mr. Emmer has this power solo and no one can take it from him. Not the governor, nor his opponents Mr. Dayton & Mr. Horner, nor any political party. He alone controls $1billion on behalf of his fellow Minnesotans.
How? Because he almost, but not quite, finished ahead of Mr. Dayton. Since the margin of Mr. Dayton’s lead is less than 0.5% of the total votes cast Minnesota will conduct and pay for an automatic recount. It is Mr. Emmer’s right to let this happen.
It is also Mr. Emmer’s right (and Mr. Dayton’s as well) to have poll watchers present at all 4136 precincts and for these people to challenge any ballots they believe are improper in some way. The State Canvassing Board will rule on all challenged ballots.
At that point the trailing candidate (and I am assuming this will be Mr. Emmer but of course there may indeed be a net swing of votes his way of nearly 9000) has the right to file for an Election Contest Court and present evidence and witnesses as to why his side should prevail.
All these rights belong to Mr. Emmer (and in some cases are matched by the same rights accorded to Mr. Dayton.) To exercise all of these rights is Mr. Emmer’s decision. But we know from the 2008 statewide Recount that exerting all these rights to their very end will take time, deep into 2011.
This is where Mr. Emmer’s $1billion option resides. You see, Governor Pawlenty agreed earlier this year to let the "next" governor make a decision on or before January 15. This is the deadline for Minnesota’s governor to apply for $1.4 billion in federal funds for health care for the poor and uninsured. There is a provision that calls for state matching funds, in this case about $430 million dollars, which would need action. But the trade is clear: put down 4 and get 14. That’s a deal more like Bush gave Wall Street in his TARP program, 4 will get you 14, yet this one is available to the state of Minnesota.
Yes we have a budget deficit of $5.8 billion that either Emmer or Dayton is going to have grapple with. $1billion net doesn’t cover that...but its not a bad start.
Now Dayton has said he will accept the money (no new taxes, no borrowing!). Emmer has said he will not.
But if Mr. Emmer will now show political courage, rise above ideology, and put statesmanship over partisanship, he can notify the Secretary of State (perhaps as the Canvassing Board meets Nov. 23 to commence the recount?) that he will accept the outcome of the race and void the need for a Recount.
Thereby Mr. Dayton becomes governor on January 3 and accepts the federal funds thanks to the noble generosity of Mr. Tom Emmer. An 82 year old grandmother and Emmer voter in Bemidji will get her blood pressure medication. A little girl in Worthington whose mother voted for Emmer and father voted for Horner will also get her immunization shots. A seasonal lumberjack in Thief River Falls who didn’t get a deer this year so his family will have no meat for the winter, he will get tested for diabetes.
And all these and many others (including Mr. Horner and Mr. Dayton) will rise up and call Mr. Tom Emmer a good man.
Winning a close election for governor? Good.
Losing a close election for governor? Hard, but good you ran.
Doing the right thing for your people when you lose a close election for governor? Priceless.
---rights and permissions and speeches and books! at my website
http://www.carleeman.com/
Odds & Ends
Dayton's legal team for the Recount, should that happen, includes Charles Nauen and David Lillehaug, 2 names from the Franken effort in 2008.....Emmer has the state GOP point man Tony Trimble. To offset this, he has also brought in Michael Toner. Toner is a Washington (DC I believe) attorney, former chair of the Federal Election Commission, was chief counsel to the Rep. Nat. Comm. and (gulp) general counsel to the Bush-Cheney campaign.......The Uptake (citizen-powered journalism at its best you may remember) could use some coin. Click and ching here:
http://theuptake.org/
There is more to come, and this weekend I will post the Dark Scenario that every Minnesotan should rightly fear (h/t to Rieux).
For now that some of the latest from yust southeast of Lake Wobegon.
Shalom.