Saudi Arabia has
reiterated their biggest condition for facilitating peace in Afghanistan; that the Taliban and other insurgent groups break away from al Qaeda. Apparently, they have thus far refused to do so.
Coming soon, I'll discuss the possible ramifications to the AfPak region due to the Republican takeover of the House.
Afghanistan:
According to my count, which tries to low-ball estimates, the pace of targeted raids has remained about the same relative to last week. Approximately 60 suspected-insurgents were killed in the last week in Afghanistan, nearly 100 more detained, and just over 20 others surrendered. Approximately 8 of the dead were low-level commanders, including 14 of those captured, and one of those who surrendered. The figure for last week was about 20 commanders, so roughly the same. The number of insurgent deaths is not nearly what it was last week, predominately because last week's figures included another failed attempt by insurgents to storm a NATO outpost(estimates for the number of dead from that incident range from 39 to 80 to over 125). Of the 61 suspected-militant deaths, 33 came from the Kandahar/Helmand area in the south including 2 low-level commanders and 12 came from the Haqqani-heartland of Khost, Paktia, and Paktika provinces including 6 low-level commanders in the south-east. Of the 97 suspected-militants captured, 20 came from the Kandahar/Helmand area including 2 low-level commanders and 31 came from the Khost/Paktia/Paktika area including 5 low-level commanders. During this same period, 11 ISAF service-members died in the south, 5 died in the east, and 1 dead in the north.(complete sourcing below)
Officials say that a multiple-suicide-assault targeting a U.N. office in the western city of Herat last week was ordered by the Quetta Shura. The AP reports that notes from Mullah Omar appeared across the Pashtun heartland threatening death to anyone who negotiates with the government of Hamid Karzai. A Taliban source also reports that the Quetta Shura is not discussing peace(at least not infront of said source). Another Taliban source, speaking to the Asia Times, claims that the peace talks have broken down.
The escalation of war in Kandahar province has overwhelmed the main hospital and forced many to seek treatment across the border in Pakistan.
Federally-Administered Tribal Areas of Pakistan:
Another drone strike in North Waziristan. Earlier this week, a trio of coordinated drone strikes were launched in the tribal district. The Wall Street Journal recently reported that the drone campaign is driving some militants out of North Waziristan.
Further north in central-FATA, Pakistani security forces claimed to have killed 10 militants during an air-raid in Orakzai tribal agency, Pakistan's security forces have been bogged down in Orakzai since March and have twice declared premature victories in the Pakistani Taliban's "second home". Also in the central-FATA vicinity, nearly 100 died in Derra Adam Khel following a suicide-attack on a mosque. It's believed that elements of the Pakistani Taliban(AKA "TTP") carried out the attack to target anti-TTP militants. Finally from central-FATA, another oil tanker bound for Afghanistan was destroyed in Khyber agency.
Pakistan:
Pakistan's largest city and epicenter of commerce has pretty much shut down again. Sectarian strife shows no sign of waning. Targeted killings are a common occurance, and the city's stability is in severe jeopordy, Still, the Pakistani government has ruled out martial law.
Pakistan's U.S. Ambassador is upbeat on U.S. President Barack Obama's visit to neighboring India. Pakistan's former President/Dictator, considering a return to politics, is more disappointed. While Musharraf certainly does not speak for all that many in Pakistan(he's living abroad for a reason), many were hoping that President Obama would push India on resolving the Kashmir Question. During the trip to India, Obama paid tribute to the Taj Mahal and all those killed by the Kashmir-centric militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba. The Kashmir-centric and Afghan-centric militant groups have been coming closer together, depicted best by the case of Ilyas Kashmiri.
Maps:
When considering the situation in Pashtunistan, consider these maps of Afghanistan and Pakistan. It is in the Pashtun areas where the U.S. and NATO have the most problems. It's important to note that while Pashtuns make up a much larger proportion of the population of Afghanistan than they do in Pakistan, there are still more Pashtuns in Pakistan than in Afghanistan. Here is a good map and rundown of the areas that make up the main warzone.
ISAF/Media Sources Regarding Insurgent Killed/Captured Numbers:
11/1
9 K, Paktia, 5 Low
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
2 C, Khost, 1 Low
2 C, Paktika(looking for one low)
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
15 K, Helmand
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
2 C, Kandahar, 1 Low
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
1 C, Wardak, 1 Low
http://www.isaf.nato.int/...
24 K, 7 C
5 Low K, 3 Low C
2 ISAF casualties, the south
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
11/2
2 K, Nangahar
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
1 C, Kandahar
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
2 C, Kandahar, 1 Low
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
2 C, 2 K, Helmand
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
2 C, Zabul
2 C, Khost, 1 Low
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
1 S, Logar, 1 Low
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
1 ISAF casualty, the south
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
11/3
4 K, 2 C, Helmand
http://news.xinhuanet.com/...
2 C, Kandahar(looking for 1 low)
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
1 K, 1 C, Khost(looking for 1 low)
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
12 C, Khost, 1 Low
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
1 ISAF Casualty, the north
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
1 ISAF casualty, the south
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
33 K, 33 C, 1 S
6 Low K, 8 Low C, 1 Low S
4 ISAF in south, 1 in north
*20 leaders killed/captured last week
11/4
1 K, Kandahar
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
3 K, 2 C, Helmand
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
1 C, Logar, 1 Low
8 C, Nimroz(looking for 1)
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
2 K, Khost, 1 Low
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
20 S, Herat
http://news.xinhuanet.com/...
10 K, Kunduz
http://news.xinhuanet.com/...
2 ISAF casualties, the south
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
1 ISAF casualty, the east
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
Overall: 48 K, 44 C, 21 S. 7 Low K, 9 Low C, 1 Low S.
Kandahar/Helmand, Taliban heartland: 25 K, 13 C. 2 Low C, 1 Low K.
Khost/Paktia/Paktika, Haqqani heartland: 12 K, 19 C. 3 Low C, 6 Low K.
8 ISAF casualties in the south, 1 in the north, 1 in the east.
*20 leaders killed/captured last week
11/5
2 C, Paktika(looking for 1 Low)
2 C, Ghazni, 1 Low
3 C, Kandahar(looking for 1 Low)
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
1 K, Kandahar
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
1 C, Khost, 1 Low
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
3 C, Khost, 1 Low
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
1 C, Parwan, 1 Low
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
1ISAF casualty, the east
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
1 ISAF caualty, the south
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
1 ISAF casualty, the south
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
11/6
2 C, Helmand(looking for 1 Low)
2 C, Zabul(looking for 1 Low)
2 C, Paktika(looking for 1 Low)
2 C, Paktia
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
3 C, Logar, 1 Low
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
1 C, Wardak(looking for 1 Low)
2 C, Logar(looking for 1 Low)
2 C, Khost(looking for 1 Low)
2 C, Kandahar(looking for 1 Low)
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
1 ISAF casualty, the east
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
1 ISAF casualty, the south
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
11/7
2 C, 1 K, Ghazni(looking for 1 Low)
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
4K, 2 C, Helmand(looking for 1 Low)
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
2 K, 2 C, Uruzgan, 1 Low
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
2 K, 17 C, Kunar
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
3 K, Helmand, 1 Low
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
2 ISAF casualties, the east
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
http://www.dvidshub.net/...