Also at The Albany Project
Sure, it was disappointing that Scott Murphy lost his first re-election bid by double-digits to Republican/tea partier Chris Gibson.
But there were several reasons why it was not surprising, as Andrew Romano reports in Newsweek.
In short, NY-20 is a very Republican district that swung to the Dems in the anti-Bush wave years of 2006 and 2008, and it swung back in a GOP wave year, like dozens of others.
Details, below.
Romano's analysis is spot-on, though he misses a few salient points.
Here's where he's right:
In many ways, Murphy was 2010’s quintessential endangered Democrat, a centrist rookie in a rather Republican district who was swept into Washington during one of the left’s recent electoral routs.
snip
Despite his deviations from Democratic orthodoxy, Murphy supported the two biggest items on Nancy Pelosi’s agenda: health-care reform and cap-and-trade legislation. They were his downfall. Once Gibson started slamming those votes —- sometime between the first Siena poll, when 65 percent of respondents were unfamiliar with the Republican candidate, and the second, when that number had plummeted to 24 percent -— voters disgruntled with the direction of the country (read: almost everyone) decided that Murphy, however unorthodox, had played enough of a part in determining that direction not to deserve another term.
snip
The inherently conservative character of Murphy’s largely rural and exurban district was further skewed during the last round of redistricting, in 2002, after which John Sweeney, the GOP congressman then in office, reportedly boasted that "no Republican can ever lose" the 20th. Today, roughly a dozen colleges sit within a few miles of its borders. Making matters worse: Murphy was elected last time by a mere 726 votes —- the slimmest margin of the entire 2008–09 cycle. In every way, he was skating on thin ice.
snip
All told, independent groups spent more than $2.8 million dollars to defeat Murphy, more than they dropped on any other Democratic congressman. The resulting barrage of negative ads largely explains why Murphy’s favorables slipped from 56 percent in September to 45 percent in October, and why his unfavorables skyrocketed from 27 percent to 45 percent over the same period of time.
Romano does not mention two factors that made Murphy's re-election even more difficult -- Gibson was an excellent candidate, and he benefited a lot from tea party enthusiasm.
Gibson is a retired Army colonel, with a chestful of well-earned medals and a Ph.D. from Cornell. He's a hometown boy, sports star at Ichabod Crane High School in Columbia County, magna cum laude graduate of Siena College, and intelligent, attractive and articulate.
Gibson was the choice of the GOP establishment, easing past the local tea party candidate in the nominating process, then hiring the tea partier on at $5K a month.
That was a good investment -- local tea partiers did thousands of hours of field work for Gibson, including this bit that impressed Schenectady Gazette columnist Carl Strock:
I was outside the Hall of Springs in Saratoga Spa State Park early Monday (Nov. 1) morning while Bill Clinton was inside plumping for Murphy, and what impressed me most was not the Democratic gathering that I had come to see, but the Republican gathering, out in the cold and the dark, taunting Murphy and cheering for Gibson.
The Republicans were far more energized than the Democrats arriving for the official rally, and they made the Democrats essentially run a gauntlet to get into the Hall of Springs.
snip
I had a sense then and there that Gibson was going to win.
I attended the rally, and was also impressed by the tea party turnout -- more than 100 people at pre-dawn 7 a.m.
There were 1,000 or so inside, but we were there to see the Big Draw.
The tea partiers were there because they are the energized Republican base, and Clinton was a Big Draw for them, too:
Tomorrow is the big day!!
For those of you who haven't heard, in a desperate attempt to rally support for Pelosi puppet Scott Murphy, Bill Clinton is speaking in Saratoga TOMORROW (Monday) at 7:20am. There is a HUGE rally planned to show support for Murphy's opponent Chris Gibson and send the message that the Obama agenda is NOT the will of the people!
We're keeping this rally positive and clean for Gibson, we don't want to give the media any reason to call us angry extremists. This is a great way to usher in a victorious Tuesday for Gibson and other liberty minded candidates!
I'll betcha that the 100 or so tea partiers that showed up for that anti-Murphy rally put in more volunteer hours for Gibson than the 1,000 or so Democrats inside did for Murphy.
Whatever, NY-20 is a pretty representative microcosm of the 2010 House elections, for all the reasons Romano notes, and a couple more.